Dexter's NFL 2011-2012

[Dexter]

So I'm looking at Tebow's losses, this year:

L5 vs SD
L35 vs Det
L18 vs NE
L26 @ Buf
L4 vs KC

So the one road loss was a blowout, and 2 of the other 4 losses were also blowouts. With a week for Bellicheck to prepare, i feel a waxing coming up in Foxboro. I will be patient and try to get 12.5/13 at some point.

And Bellickeck is 0-3 ATS the last 3 years off a bye week....im shocked at that.

[anoraxx]

Good luck with these

[suicidekings]

So I'm looking at Tebow's losses, this year: L5 vs SD L35 vs Det L18 vs NE L26 @ Buf L4 vs KC So the one road loss was a blowout, and 2 of the other 4 losses were also blowouts. With a week for Bellicheck to prepare, i feel a waxing coming up in Foxboro. I will be patient and try to get 12.5/13 at some point. And Bellickeck is 0-3 ATS the last 3 years off a bye week....im shocked at that.

This is kind of in keeping with the Pats performance as a whole in the last 3 years. Missed the playoffs in 2008, and then one and done the last two seasons, getting upset at home both years by the Ravens/Jets as -3.5/-9.5 favourites. In both of those games, strong defensive minded teams pressured Brady (sacking him 8 times in 2 games) and forcing turnovers that decided the games. The Pats had also beaten the Jets 45-3 in their previous meeting last year (losing 14-28 in the first game) and beat the Ravens 27-21 in 2009 before going on to lose in the playoffs.

I think it's pretty tough to have faith in Bellichek/Brady in playoff games, let alone laying almost 2 TDs.

[Dexter]

This is kind of in keeping with the Pats performance as a whole in the last 3 years. Missed the playoffs in 2008, and then one and done the last two seasons, getting upset at home both years by the Ravens/Jets as -3.5/-9.5 favourites. In both of those games, strong defensive minded teams pressured Brady (sacking him 8 times in 2 games) and forcing turnovers that decided the games. The Pats had also beaten the Jets 45-3 in their previous meeting last year (losing 14-28 in the first game) and beat the Ravens 27-21 in 2009 before going on to lose in the playoffs.

I think it's pretty tough to have faith in Bellichek/Brady in playoff games, let alone laying almost 2 TDs.

tough to have faith in brady/bellicheck because a bad run the past few years?

how are the broncos a strong defensive minded team? they are ranked 20th in total defense and 24th in pts at 24ppg. i am pretty sure the jets/ravens were top 5 in total defense/pts against those years.

i never feel more confident in a qb to have on my side then brady.

it sounds to me like you think the broncos on the ML is worth a play....i dont see it, and i rarely take big favorites in the NFL.

[suicidekings]

tough to have faith in brady/bellicheck because a bad run the past few years? i never feel more confident in a qb to have on my side then brady. it sounds to me like you think the broncos on the ML is worth a play....i dont see it, and i rarely take big favorites in the NFL.

Not necessarily. I don't really find this game appealing to bet on.

But I do see Elvis Dumerville & Von Miller being in Brady's face all game and Denver is one of the better teams in the league at clamping down and stopping teams on 3rd down, limiting drive duration. The Pats defense is going to struggle to contain the Denver ground offense again and so the Broncos are going to have their opportunities to score, making it tough for NE to cover a 2TD spread in a TO neutral game.

In the first game, NE won the turnover battle 3-0 and sacked Tebow 4 times, winning by 18. The game really got away from Denver in the 2Q on two fumbles in under 3 minutes at the DEN23 & DEN46 yard lines, which were converted for 10 NE points. It completely changed the complexion of the game and killed Denver's momentum. Now they're laying -13 at home, which is on par with the line from the last game (NE -7) so I don't see much of an opportunity here on the spread either way.

[Dexter]

Not necessarily. I don't really find this game appealing to bet on.

But I do see Elvis Dumerville & Von Miller being in Brady's face all game and Denver is one of the better teams in the league at clamping down and stopping teams on 3rd down, limiting drive duration. The Pats defense is going to struggle to contain the Denver ground offense again and so the Broncos are going to have their opportunities to score, making it tough for NE to cover a 2TD spread in a TO neutral game.

In the first game, NE won the turnover battle 3-0 and sacked Tebow 4 times, winning by 18. The game really got away from Denver in the 2Q on two fumbles in under 3 minutes at the DEN23 & DEN46 yard lines, which were converted for 10 NE points. It completely changed the complexion of the game and killed Denver's momentum. Now they're laying -13 at home, which is on par with the line from the last game (NE -7) so I don't see much of an opportunity here on the spread either way.

how are the broncos a strong defensive minded team? they are ranked 20th in total defense and 24th in pts at 24ppg. i am pretty sure the jets/ravens were top 5 in total defense/pts against those years.

thats in depth game information from last time that is interesting, but you have to think the pats will win the turnover battle again, now at home.

[suicidekings]

how are the broncos a strong defensive minded team? they are ranked 20th in total defense and 24th in pts at 24ppg. i am pretty sure the jets/ravens were top 5 in total defense/pts against those years. thats in depth game information from last time that is interesting, but you have to think the pats will win the turnover battle again, now at home.

I would never assume a +3 turnover margin is likely to be repeated in a game like this. On the year, NE has a TO margin of +1.1 per game.

This season was feast or famine for the Broncos, with 4 games where they surrendered 40+ and lost big, compared to 7 games where they gave up 17 or less. In those 4 big losses, the Broncos committed 14 turnovers compared to 2 by opponents, with many of those resulting in excellent field position for the other team. They gave these games away to a large degree and when you give that many extra opportunities to GB/DET/BUF/NE on a short field, things go bad quickly. As far as defensive talent, the Broncos have several playmakers that will pressure the NE offense. In particular, Football Outsiders has their DL ranked at #5 in pass rush and #9 in defensive run blocking. LINK

IMO, if the Broncos take care of the ball, this could be a very close game.

[Dexter]

you're making a lot of good points to take the broncos - i don't see why you wouldn't take them.
i'm not saying a +3 TO margin is expected, but i do expect it to be at least +1 with the game being in Foxboro.

i can totally envision bellichek putting together a scheme that has tebow looking like he did at buffalo a few weeks ago. if the pats are smart, they will go no huddle all of Q1 and try to take a large lead early. forcing tebow to throw for most of the second half will turn into a disaster for the broncos.

everyone has talent - they give up points, and that's all that really matters to me.

[lakerboy]

Dexter dont you think that John Fox is a good coach? He almost beat the pats in the superbowl as a 7 point dog. I think Fox has done a lot with very little and he always has his teams prepared in the playoffs except one time. I think until the pats win a playoff game i wont bet them but i see little value in this game until i see some movement. right now most people are sitting this one out.

[Dexter]

Dexter dont you think that John Fox is a good coach? He almost beat the pats in the superbowl as a 7 point dog. I think Fox has done a lot with very little and he always has his teams prepared in the playoffs except one time. I think until the pats win a playoff game i wont bet them but i see little value in this game until i see some movement. right now most people are sitting this one out.

i think he is a great coach - thats a very good point that i did not think of.

i expect the line to go down which is why i am waiting.....i was planning on going 5u, but you both have brought up good points which may make me reduce the play......i am definitely hitting baltimore for a nickel, so i might scale back on the pats play.

[suicidekings]

i think he is a great coach - thats a very good point that i did not think of. i expect the line to go down which is why i am waiting.....i was planning on going 5u, but you both have brought up good points which may make me reduce the play......i am definitely hitting baltimore for a nickel, so i might scale back on the pats play.

The Ravens are going to rip the Texans apart

[wizcodlifa]

so dexter, what are your final NFL playoff picks?

[Dexter]

so dexter, what are your final NFL playoff picks?

SF, Balt, NYG, NE

only booked sf so far for 3u. and giants for 5u. balt will be 5u and pats prob 3u.

[Exxpresso]

Hey Dexter, do you think SF is a good ML Bet ? Also thinking about the Giants ML.

[Dexter]

Hey Dexter, do you think SF is a good ML Bet ? Also thinking about the Giants ML.

yes, i obviously feel like sf can win and im not banking on a 3pt saints win. giants ml i dont know....maybe very small.

[Dexter]

Sunday Jan 15:

(5u) Giants +9

(10u) Ravens -7.5

[doogtonmai]

(10u) Ravens -7.5

I hope you didn't just mean 1unit. My wife just laughed at me cause I'm wagering $700 on them tomorrow.

[StackinGreen]

Good luck today boys. My writeup is now out. Best wishes,

SG

[Dexter]

I hope you didn't just mean 1unit. My wife just laughed at me cause I'm wagering $700 on them today.

i was going to go a lot bigger but chickened out. anyone can pm if you want reasoning. i am superstitious and really bad for some reason when i talk up a play. which is why i am kicking myself for talking about the giants game so much. i ventured into a few other threads like an idiot...

[StackinGreen]

Sweet Jesus, Dex! One of us is going to have a good/bad weekend ...

I hope you like that we're on the opposite side on every game.

[Dexter]

Sweet Jesus, Dex! One of us is going to have a good/bad weekend ...

I hope you like that we're on the opposite side on every game.

damn - that sucks.

[Pauulzcappin]

sent you a pm dex, hit me up when you can

[StackinGreen]

damn - that sucks.

You've had a good season. Why so big today? They should be going with you, but sometimes I come up big ... that's why they play the game.

Best of luck, though I don't believe in luck.

[shocktopme]

.

I hope the tide is up in the bay and grass is sloppy shit so Saints receivers cant run clean routes!!!!!Go SF!!!

[joco]

i agree with all of ur plays so far dex. except i have more units on g men than on the ravens. probably staying away from tonites game even tho i expect the pats to cover.

ITS GONNA BE A GOOD WEEKEND!

[Dexter]

Damn, boy, you're going heavy this weekend! Rodgers is going to Discount Double Check that ass!

not different then week 1 of the playoffs - i had two 5u plays as well. wow, i am so shocked that you're betting the Packers.

You've had a good season. Why so big today? They should be going with you, but sometimes I come up big ... that's why they play the game.

Best of luck, though I don't believe in luck.

hey SG - gotta be honest, you're kind of annoying with all of your questions dude. you asked me the same question earlier in the week, i answered and you asked me again today "why so big?"

i have not had a good season in the NFL, so not sure what your comment above means. i am still down a few hundred bucks.

i find it interesting that such a successful gambler like yourself doesn't think that making larger bets when all the data/information is in front of you makes sense in the right situations.

the comment about "they should be going with you" just gives me all that i need to know about what you're trying to accomplish with your posts. if i haven't made this clear before, i prefer that people dont tail me and i simply post my plays because it has made me a better gambler. i can give a shit less what people on the internet think about me, or what they do with their own money.

do me a favor - try and keep your questions to a minimum this weekend.

[StackinGreen]

I won't post here anymore. Sorry. I thought you were hot the last few weeks. You think I scour these pages tallying your plays?

Best wishes today, in any case.

[wizcodlifa]

what ur guys thoughts on a 3 team teaser. saints +8.5, saints vs 49ers under 56.5, and broncos +23.5??

[Anthonyg7]

Dex good luck this weekend bud.. I like your Balty play. So far i'm only on the SF/NO Under 47.

[Anthonyg7]

what ur guys thoughts on a 3 team teaser. saints +8.5, saints vs 49ers under 56.5, and broncos +23.5??

[Dexter]

I won't post here anymore. Sorry. I thought you were hot the last few weeks. You think I scour these pages tallying your plays?

Best wishes today, in any case.

you dont have to tally my stuff...i update my records like clockwork every sunday/monday night in all sports.
going into 12/8 i was down 33units. since then i have had 5 winning weeks in row chipping away, but am still down 11u YTD.

cmon bro....you know i like you and respect you but the questions you ask me sometimes can be irritating.

[StackinGreen]

Aight, games coming on soon! Let's get it on!

[Dexter]

Saturday Jan 14:

(3u) 49ers +3.5

(3u) Patriots -13.5

[Dexter]

Dex good luck this weekend bud.. I like your Balty play. So far i'm only on the SF/NO Under 47.

good to see you anthony - baseball almost here.

[Dexter]

by the way - has anyone here watched Homeland? this show is insane. Up to show 5 right now. Catching up OnDemand...