Dexter's NFL 2011-2012

[Dexter]

probowl total is 73...haha

[fly fisher]

I messed up last night, my book was offering +4.5 live bet for the winner to get these points vs New England. I did take +4.5 for a unit, and took the under of 54.5 for 2 units. after seeing your bet, I wish I would have taken the +4.5 for 3 units and left everything else alone. Well at least I have a few bucks riding on the superbowl already.

[Dexter]

I messed up last night, my book was offering +4.5 live bet for the winner to get these points vs New England. I did take +4.5 for a unit, and took the under of 54.5 for 2 units. after seeing your bet, I wish I would have taken the +4.5 for 3 units and left everything else alone. Well at least I have a few bucks riding on the superbowl already.

thats pretty cool....although i think sf would have been a 6-7pt dog. i would have taken them as well. i cant back a finesse team like the patriots in this spot...not vs a team with the better defense.

[Dexter]

Sunday 2/5_Super Bowl XLVI: (10u) Giants +3.5

(2u) Over Patriots/Giants 55

I normally would stay away from an Over like this with 2 weeks for the defenses to prepare, but the fact that this will be played on a fast track/indoors should really help the overs cause. I dont think this flys over, but want a little side action off my Giants play. 31-27 Giants is what i can see.

[Dexter]

Playoffs Week 3: 4-0 (+11u)

Playoffs 2012: 12-3 (+18.3u)

NFL YTD: 89-73 (+.25u)

StackinGreen - where are you pal??

[Dexter]

in the 3 Patriot SuperBowl Wins (all with Brady), the winning margin was 3 each game.
line down to 2.5 at the MGM and a few offshore books.

http://www.patriots.com/team/history/super-bowls.html

[lakerboy]

in the 3 Patriot SuperBowl Wins (all with Brady), the winning margin was 3 each game.
line down to 2.5 at the MGM and a few offshore books.

http://www.patriots.com/team/history/super-bowls.html

yeah but they were 14 point dogs to the rams and -7 versus philly and the cats. this is the first time they are such a small fave. books have always given them too much respect. this time a little different.

[Dexter]

Sunday 1/29:

(1u) NFC -4
(1u) Over 72.5

[Dexter]

yeah but they were 14 point dogs to the rams and -7 versus philly and the cats. this is the first time they are such a small fave. books have always given them too much respect. this time a little different.

good point....

[StackinGreen]

StackinGreen - where are you pal??

I didn't know you were waiting for me

Maybe you'll like this ... I'm on the under 55 in the big game, 10 units

Best of luck, boss

[StackinGreen]

Playoffs Week 3: 4-0 (+11u)

Playoffs 2012: 12-3 (+18.3u)

NFL YTD: 89-73 (+.25u)

I actually agreed with both of your plays last week, great job my man. Of course, I didn't bet them since I got so smoked this year during the playoffs. Your run this year has been very impressive. Almost as good as mine last year But the question is, "What have you done for me lately?" and the answer to that question from my angle is "Nothing, forget me and tail Dex"

At 3.5, the Giants play stood out to me, but I'm not touching the sides in this one, especially since I never could have nabbed that number. I just love the under, I have no idea why it's so high and I'm not going to overthink it.

Pounding the under 55, as I just posted.

[Dexter]

I actually agreed with both of your plays last week, great job my man. Of course, I didn't bet them since I got so smoked this year during the playoffs. Your run this year has been very impressive. Almost as good as mine last year But the question is, "What have you done for me lately?" and the answer to that question from my angle is "Nothing, forget me and tail Dex"

At 3.5, the Giants play stood out to me, but I'm not touching the sides in this one, especially since I never could have nabbed that number. I just love the under, I have no idea why it's so high and I'm not going to overthink it.

Pounding the under 55, as I just posted.

I know where you're coming from with the under. I remember your comment in my college football thread about taking unders with all the time off between games. 2 weeks to prepare will favor the defenses. I think the better play is probably under 1Q, as i can see this being a 3-0 type game after 1. But i just think there is too talent at the QB and Receivers for both teams, and on a fast track - i expect this game to sneak over.

[StackinGreen]

Before I checked the line, and it was literally today, I would have guessed it was hovering around 48.5, a total at which I still would have leaned under. When I discovered 55, to me, it's a no-brainer. Have I been cold? Yes. But 55 seems a big advantage. I see 24-20 and would be very surprised if it even got to 31-20.

To me, given the Detroit/New Orleans playoff game where the total was 59.5, it seems unfathomable that the total here is so close to that. Can they go over 55? Of course, anything can happen. I really think the line is off by about 7.5 points. Gronk is not full strength and the 2 weeks?

I'm glad you're just 2u on it.

Just my $.02

[Dexter]

Sunday 1/29:

(1u) NFC -4
(1u) Over 72.5

closes at 6/75....here comes an 0-2..lol

[Dexter]

haha...nice defense revis.

[Dexter]

ehhh....should have just pounded the over and took the free money. cam newton blew the side. no one cares in this game, but he really doesnt care.

[Dexter]

Before I checked the line, and it was literally today, I would have guessed it was hovering around 48.5, a total at which I still would have leaned under. When I discovered 55, to me, it's a no-brainer. Have I been cold? Yes. But 55 seems a big advantage. I see 24-20 and would be very surprised if it even got to 31-20.

To me, given the Detroit/New Orleans playoff game where the total was 59.5, it seems unfathomable that the total here is so close to that. Can they go over 55? Of course, anything can happen. I really think the line is off by about 7.5 points. Gronk is not full strength and the 2 weeks?

I'm glad you're just 2u on it.

Just my $.02

you have no side play in the SuperBowl??

[Dexter]

(2u) Over Patriots/Giants 55

I normally would stay away from an Over like this with 2 weeks for the defenses to prepare, but the fact that this will be played on a fast track/indoors should really help the overs cause. I dont think this flys over, but want a little side action off my Giants play. 31-27 Giants is what i can see.

swing and a miss on this impatient play....

[Scully]

Hi Dexter. Tell me, is 10 units considered a rather big wager for you or would you consider it a medium size play? Thanks in advance and bol in the upcoming SB.

[Dexter]

Hi Dexter. Tell me, is 10 units considered a rather big wager for you or would you consider it a medium size play? Thanks in advance and bol in the upcoming SB.

its the largest bet (along with balt a few weeks ago) i made all season. my avg unit size per play in NFL was around 2u...i probably would have played a game like this for 5u during the season, but some extra $$ on the Superbowl as i always do.

[fly fisher]

so dex, you still feeling the over or are you thinking more like the under now. I have been pretty tempted to take a teaser with Giants +8.5 and under 60. Or thinking of taking the Giants +8.5 and over 48 (if you still like the over).

Right now I have
1 unit of giants at +4.5
3 units of giants at 3
2 units of giants at +2.5

2 units of NE/NYG at under 54.5

So just wondering what you are thinking as of today

[Dexter]

so dex, you still feeling the over or are you thinking more like the under now. I have been pretty tempted to take a teaser with Giants +8.5 and under 60. Or thinking of taking the Giants +8.5 and over 48 (if you still like the over).

Right now I have
1 unit of giants at +4.5
3 units of giants at 3
2 units of giants at +2.5
2 units of NE/NYG at under 54.5
So just wondering what you are thinking as of today

i don't love the over, but i do think the game lands in the high 50's. i would go +8.5/over 48.
but if you already have the under you might as well stick with under in your teaser.
giants +4.5 - thats a nice local line....your guy always jacks up the favorites.

[fly fisher]

No it was a live line where it was giants or 49ers +4.5 vs Patriots, so I took it. my book has been sticking with the giants at +2.5 at -105, so I bought it to +3 at -115

[Dexter]

No it was a live line where it was giants or 49ers +4.5 vs Patriots, so I took it. my book has been sticking with the giants at +2.5 at -105, so I bought it to +3 at -115

smart...

[StackinGreen]

I'm on Patriots -2.5.

[fly fisher]

smart...

LOL, I sure as hell hope so.....

[Dexter]

I'm on Patriots -2.5.

i knew that already...you always side with the sexy QB....

i can live with 33-30 Pats...

[fly fisher]

to add to what i already have is a teaser I did today with your Portland pick. With the portland win, I now have 2.5 units with NYG at +8.5. Go giants.

[lakerboy]

dex doesnt it bother you that giants +3.5 and +3 is the same juice?

[Dexter]

dex doesnt it bother you that giants +3.5 and +3 is the same juice?

i dont see 3.5 anywhere anymore....just 2.5 and 3

[lakerboy]

i dont see 3.5 anywhere anymore....just 2.5 and 3

no i meant i find it funny that +3.5 was -117 and so is +3 at -117.

books are juicing the giants ( the true fave) big time here

[Dexter]

love superbowl sundays....like waking up to Christmas Morning as a kid...

[phillydon215]

love superbowl sundays....like waking up to Christmas Morning as a kid...

So dex if u had to take a side who would u take

[phillydon215]

And you still on the over ?

[Dexter]

So dex if u had to take a side who would u take

Sunday 2/5_Super Bowl XLVI: (10u) Giants +3.5

i played the giants...was on the prior page. yes, i have over 55 for 2u.