SSK's NFL ML Thread

[ScottLocke]

Leaning Dallas, TB, Washington... would prob lean ATL but prob not betting that game. I just think Indy, Minny, and New Orleans are so over valued right now based on last years performance that everyone just expects them to be that team again when they aren't, therefore all of their lines are a bit inflated and if there is any value at all it is on the other side.

Now you could say the same about Dallas, but I think they will improve as the season goes on.

New Orleans hasn't shown me anything at all yet and no way I would take them on the road in a division game giving 4.5 points. Im not saying they won't win or cover, I just think this spread is off due to public perception by about a 1.5 points and should be -3. So far New Orleans has beaten a 1-4 Vikings team, a 0-5 49ers team and a 0-5 Panthers team. Impressive stuff.

Minnesota is just not the same team this year, their defense isn't as good and Favre has reverted back to the player he was the few years before last year, I don't think he was really motivated to play this year and just gave in to the Vikings. They are coming off a short week and a tough loss to the Jets and everyone is just waiting for them to turn it around and I just don't think its gonna happen.

Indy is really banged up, i'm not too worried about their offense as they should always be in decent shape as long as Manning is ok but they had a lot of trouble vs the Chiefs. The defense is what i'm worried about, fortunately they played the Chiefs last week and since Cassell has trouble throwing the ball further than 10 yards they were ok. I think Washington exposes their weak secondary and i'm sure they won't have much trouble running the ball either.

[ssk13809]

Leaning Dallas, TB, Washington... would prob lean ATL but prob not betting that game. I just think Indy, Minny, and New Orleans are so over valued right now based on last years performance that everyone just expects them to be that team again when they aren't, therefore all of their lines are a bit inflated and if there is any value at all it is on the other side.

Now you could say the same about Dallas, but I think they will improve as the season goes on.

New Orleans hasn't shown me anything at all yet and no way I would take them on the road in a division game giving 4.5 points. Im not saying they won't win or cover, I just think this spread is off due to public perception by about a 1.5 points and should be -3. So far New Orleans has beaten a 1-4 Vikings team, a 0-5 49ers team and a 0-5 Panthers team. Impressive stuff.

Minnesota is just not the same team this year, their defense isn't as good and Favre has reverted back to the player he was the few years before last year, I don't think he was really motivated to play this year and just gave in to the Vikings. They are coming off a short week and a tough loss to the Jets and everyone is just waiting for them to turn it around and I just don't think its gonna happen.

Indy is really banged up, i'm not too worried about their offense as they should always be in decent shape as long as Manning is ok but they had a lot of trouble vs the Chiefs. The defense is what i'm worried about, fortunately they played the Chiefs last week and since Cassell has trouble throwing the ball further than 10 yards they were ok. I think Washington exposes their weak secondary and i'm sure they won't have much trouble running the ball either.

Well I usually just bet MLs anyways.

I'm probably going to bet NO wins straight-up. Maybe. But since I might, I think they will win by at least 7 points too. I know the Saints haven't looked so good this year, but I think last week was a wake-up call that they definitely needed. TB still sucks despite their record and last time they were at home they got blown out 38-13. This Saints team is still the defending superbowl champions and when motivated (which they should be now) they should blow out TB.

Vikkings and the Cowboys haven't looked good. I agree. But both are talented. And it's in Minnesota. The Vikkings are a great home team. They went 8-0 at home last year. They blew out Dallas at home last time they played. And now they are at home in a must-win game. I think they will win it. Mainly because of HCA.

Colts are also a more ML play. But since I think they will win, might as well hope they win by more than 3. Though I think that could be a push. But Colts still have Freeney/Mathis, and besides for Orton, they have done a solid job against the pass all year not allowing 200+ yards by any other passer. Redskins are not a good running team either. I think this one will be close, but I believe in Manning to finish the job.

[ssk13809]

Official Bets

Falcons +125 (Risk 8 to win 10)
Rams +330 (Risk 3 to win 9.9)
Vikkings -120 (Risk 6 to win 5)




3 Team Parlay

Steelers -800
Saints -205
Colts -170
(Risk 8 to win 13.2)




Some ATS Bets

Texans -4 (Risk 11to win 10)
Rams +8 (Risk 3.3 to win 3)


If I wasn't betting ML, I would bet some more ATS. Including Atlanta +3, NO -4, and Colts -3.

So my ATS Picks for the Week (For those that bet ATS) are

Texans -4
Saints -4
Rams +8
Colts -3
NO -4
Falcons +3

[ssk13809]

Average Week this week. Oh well.






Falcons +125 (Risk 8 to win 10) (LOSS)
Rams +330 (Risk 3 to win 9.9) (WIN)
Vikkings -120 (Risk 6 to win 5) (WIN)




3 Team Parlay

Steelers -800
Saints -205
Colts -170
(Risk 8 to win 13.2) (WIN)




Some ATS Bets

Texans -4 (Risk 11to win 10) (PUSH)
Rams +8 (Risk 3.3 to win 3) (WIN)




Week 6: +22 Units

[ssk13809]

Notes:

As I have been saying since Week 1, as season goes on, I get better because I learn more about each team. Right now I think I have finally reached my prime. In other words, I am very comfortable with all the teams and am at the top of my game. Hopefully I can do at least average (like I did this week) for the rest of the year.


Also, with Rams winning, that makes me 2-0 in my underdog special (+200 or worse) plays this year. I hit my Parlay with confidence. Steelers and Saints dominated like I expected. Colts played as well as I expected too, but made some mistakes leading to TOs and given points. But they still won. And thats why I love playing MLs more than ATS. I feel like I can hit these Parlays anytime I want to. And you have to love the +200 return it gives me. Easiest +200 play there is.


Not happy with Falcons. Lesson has been learned and will be applied to make next week above average.

[Rose']

Who you got tomo night big dawg?

[ssk13809]

Who you got tomo night big dawg?

Not betting on either. Haven't looked too close into the matchup either. I could probably look into it a little more and give you a legit answer, but I know either way I won't feel confident with either teams because its a close call either way, so I'm just going to leave it at that.


In other words, I could give you a good answer, but I don't care to do so because either way I'm not betting on it.

[ssk13809]

Well I usually just bet MLs anyways.

I'm probably going to bet NO wins straight-up. Maybe. But since I might, I think they will win by at least 7 points too. I know the Saints haven't looked so good this year, but I think last week was a wake-up call that they definitely needed. TB still sucks despite their record and last time they were at home they got blown out 38-13. This Saints team is still the defending superbowl champions and when motivated (which they should be now) they should blow out TB.

Vikkings and the Cowboys haven't looked good. I agree. But both are talented. And it's in Minnesota. The Vikkings are a great home team. They went 8-0 at home last year. They blew out Dallas at home last time they played. And now they are at home in a must-win game. I think they will win it. Mainly because of HCA.

Colts are also a more ML play. But since I think they will win, might as well hope they win by more than 3. Though I think that could be a push. But Colts still have Freeney/Mathis, and besides for Orton, they have done a solid job against the pass all year not allowing 200+ yards by any other passer. Redskins are not a good running team either. I think this one will be close, but I believe in Manning to finish the job.

Pretty much called all 3 of these games spot on.

Leaning Dallas, TB, Washington... would prob lean ATL but prob not betting that game. I just think Indy, Minny, and New Orleans are so over valued right now based on last years performance that everyone just expects them to be that team again when they aren't, therefore all of their lines are a bit inflated and if there is any value at all it is on the other side.

Now you could say the same about Dallas, but I think they will improve as the season goes on.

New Orleans hasn't shown me anything at all yet and no way I would take them on the road in a division game giving 4.5 points. Im not saying they won't win or cover, I just think this spread is off due to public perception by about a 1.5 points and should be -3. So far New Orleans has beaten a 1-4 Vikings team, a 0-5 49ers team and a 0-5 Panthers team. Impressive stuff.

Minnesota is just not the same team this year, their defense isn't as good and Favre has reverted back to the player he was the few years before last year, I don't think he was really motivated to play this year and just gave in to the Vikings. They are coming off a short week and a tough loss to the Jets and everyone is just waiting for them to turn it around and I just don't think its gonna happen.

Indy is really banged up, i'm not too worried about their offense as they should always be in decent shape as long as Manning is ok but they had a lot of trouble vs the Chiefs. The defense is what i'm worried about, fortunately they played the Chiefs last week and since Cassell has trouble throwing the ball further than 10 yards they were ok. I think Washington exposes their weak secondary and i'm sure they won't have much trouble running the ball either.

What was that?

[ScottLocke]

Pretty much called all 3 of these games spot on.






What was that?

Aside from New Orleans, I don't see how I was wrong. 1 game means absolutely nothing, just cause your picks won does not mean you were on the right side, and just cause your picks lose does not mean you were on the wrong side.

Especially the Dallas game, I don't know if you watched the game or not, but if you did, there is no way you can argue that Dallas was the wrong side. Every single break went Minnesota's way. This is why there is so much luck involved in betting sports. Turnovers, penalties, and special teams are not something you can accurately cap, that is the luck factor, all three went Minnesota's way and that is why they won. Even so, they still barely won.

Saints played a great game tho, so I was wrong there. But I also did not touch that game myself this week. I just prefer staying away from over-valued teams, which the Saints are, and will be even more so after this week. I think there will be some value in fading them in the weeks to come.

[ssk13809]

Aside from New Orleans, I don't see how I was wrong. 1 game means absolutely nothing, just cause your picks won does not mean you were on the right side, and just cause your picks lose does not mean you were on the wrong side.

Especially the Dallas game, I don't know if you watched the game or not, but if you did, there is no way you can argue that Dallas was the wrong side. Every single break went Minnesota's way. This is why there is so much luck involved in betting sports. Turnovers, penalties, and special teams are not something you can accurately cap, that is the luck factor, all three went Minnesota's way and that is why they won. Even so, they still barely won.

Saints played a great game tho, so I was wrong there. But I also did not touch that game myself this week. I just prefer staying away from over-valued teams, which the Saints are, and will be even more so after this week. I think there will be some value in fading them in the weeks to come.

Forgot to talk about the Colts game? Redskins got so many TOs that led to points for them (without even moving the ball on offense) and stopped Colts from getting easy points (Colts TOs in Redzone). I knew Manning would still win the game though I said if things go wrong (they did) it could be a push and Colts would win by just 3. That's exactly what happened. But otherwise, Colts looked MUCH stronger than the Redskins.


As for Dallas and Minnesota? Homefield Advantage is all I have to say. Things like that happen with Dallas all the time, and the Vikkings just find ways to win at home. That's why they went 9-0 there last year. Think twice before betting against them in Minnesota. I said the same to guys betting on Baltimore in NE. If you don't want to bet on Brady in NE.

[ScottLocke]

Forgot to talk about the Colts game? Redskins got so many TOs that led to points for them (without even moving the ball on offense) and stopped Colts from getting easy points (Colts TOs in Redzone). I knew Manning would still win the game though I said if things go wrong (they did) it could be a push and Colts would win by just 3. That's exactly what happened. But otherwise, Colts looked MUCH stronger than the Redskins. As for Dallas and Minnesota? Homefield Advantage is all I have to say. Things like that happen with Dallas all the time, and the Vikkings just find ways to win at home. That's why they went 9-0 there last year. Think twice before betting against them in Minnesota. I said the same to guys betting on Baltimore in NE. If you don't want to bet on Brady in NE.

The Colts didn't even cover the spread and let up 24 pts, I thought that game was so obvious it didn't even need explaining lol. And I don't know how you can say they didn't move the ball, Torain rushed for 100 yards and Mcnabb passed for 246.... and the Skins offense isn't even that good.

Kinda funny how a couple weeks ago you chalk up your losses to bad luck, now you get some good luck in the Vikings game, but you don't call it that. You call it skillllllz. I bet if you were on Dallas you would def be saying you got unlucky.

[ssk13809]

The Colts didn't even cover the spread and let up 24 pts, I thought that game was so obvious it didn't even need explaining lol. And I don't know how you can say they didn't move the ball, Torain rushed for 100 yards and Mcnabb passed for 246.... and the Skins offense isn't even that good.

Kinda funny how a couple weeks ago you chalk up your losses to bad luck, now you get some good luck in the Vikings game, but you don't call it that. You call it skillllllz. I bet if you were on Dallas you would def be saying you got unlucky.

Remember I bet Colts ML. And I said the game could be a push with Colts winning by 3 if things go wrong. They did. They pushed. I still won. That's what you call a strong pick.

3 Team Parlay (ML)

Steelers
Saints
Colts


You see, all 3 of those teams, I accounted for bad luck. They would win despite bad luck and TOs. And that's exactly what happened with all 3 of them. And the 3 Team Parlay paid off well (+190). Those are type of the picks I use in my 3 Team Parlay, and that's really what you need for 3 Team Parlay. Picks that will win for sure accounting for luck. If you asked me, I would give that 3 Team Parlay a -190 for someone else, because it is a "probable" cover and I got it at +190.





Let me tell you something, the home team always has more "luck" than the road team. You should give the home team the "luck" edge right from the start so you don't complain about it later. I was talking about "bad luck" with the home teams. That is just sad. Like Bengals up 7 in TB territory at home with 2 something left in the 4th. They lose. Now that's bad luck.



But remember that, the home team usually is more lucky. And the strong home teams always seem to come out on top in the end. The Vikkings are a strong home team, have always been. Tom Brady hasn't lost at home since 2006 regular season. Enough said.

[ssk13809]

But anyways, looking to get started from an average week last week. Hopefully next week will be better.

[ssk13809]

There is a lot of action I like this week. This will be a good week.

[jolmscheid]

Lookin' forward to it SSK...keep it goin

[ssk13809]

My best pick of the week


Falcons -190 ML


This is a gift. Matt Ryan is near perfect at home for his career. Falcons are a great home team therefore. Bengals so far have looked average at best. And -190 is actually surprisingly low implied odds for Atlanta. I would've expected -300 or something. But it seems the public seems to doubt Atlanta after their last loss. Forgetting Atlanta is a totally different team at home. I'm going big on this one. Matt Ryan is too good at home, 15-1 for his career. Enough said. Falcons win.


Risk 19 to Win 10.



And some ATS Picks I've already locked in

Falcons -3.5

Reasons already mentioned on this one. They should blow out Cincinnati. But since I already have a lot on the ML, not putting much on the ATS.

Risk 5.5 to win 5


Seahawks -5.5

I live in Seattle. I know the Seahawks. And let me tell you, it's going to be a blowout. Expect Seattle later in a parlay.

Risk 8 to win 7













More picks will come later this week. But those plays are really good.

[C-Low420]

Love both of your picks. might have to ML parlay them along with the saints and ravens

[ssk13809]

Love both of your picks. might have to ML parlay them along with the saints and ravens

You stole one of my later picks....
If you have been watching my picks, you knew that one was coming lol.



I always have a Parlay every week. And consists of some of the real "Locks" of the week. Like indeed the Ravens and Saints. What makes this so good is that you don't have to chalk up a -800 Line, you can take teams like Ravens and Saints, add them to a ML parlay, with other "Locks", and in the end it its not so bad. Last week I got it at +190.

Picking Parlays like this is like closing a 1 run game in the 9th inning. Allow a run and you blew it. But in my case, I'm Mariano Rivera and I make good picks that will help get me the save. I got it last week. Week before a miracle blew it, but last week was a tough cover as well at +190, I made it look easy.


So I definitely recommend a Raven-Saints-Falcons-Seahawks parlay.

Nonethless, I'm not going to have Falcons in my Parlay. Because I've already put so much on them in the ML, and have them ATS, it would be foolish to also add them to parlay. Though for sure if I didn't have them ML and ATS, I would have them in Parlay.


I'll still have a Parlay, consisting of Ravens, Saints, and some other teams that I think will win for sure, which will in the end make my line pretty favorable.

[rsnnh12]

Just checked on 5Dimes for that 4 team parlay mentioned in the last post

Ravens, Saints, Falcons, Seahawks MLs pays out +175

Not bad at all, considering Ravens and Saints are -670 and -700 respectively, and all 4 teams are at home.

Will definitely put some money on this

[ssk13809]

Just checked on 5Dimes for that 4 team parlay mentioned in the last post

Ravens, Saints, Falcons, Seahawks MLs pays out +175

Not bad at all, considering Ravens and Saints are -670 and -700 respectively, and all 4 teams are at home.

Will definitely put some money on this

Exactly. "Lock Game" Parlays pay off well. I did one last week. +190 with 3 I think easy picks. The best part about MLs in general also is the team you bet on has the same goal as you. None of that "my team screwed me over because they were winning by so much" ATS BS. In ML, you and your team play to win.


Which team has the most chance of blowing it? I don't know. Hopefully we won't even have to check the scores of the Saints and Ravens games. To be honest, I'm as confident Falcons will win as I am Saints will win. 15-1 at home (with Ryan) is just too good against this average Bengals team. Seattle? Well, they are a great home team, and matchup really well with Arizona. I would call this as big of a lock as Baltimore, but I think Arizona has defeated Seattle the last what 6 times in a row? So I'm used to seeing Seattle lose. But we all know Arizona is not the same team here. And Seahawks at home are VERY tough to beat. Also, Arizona does not matchup well. Seahawks win easily.


But yeah, go with SEA, BAL, NO, and ATL. I like I said might have to do something a little different since I already have so much on ATL.

[rsnnh12]

What are your thoughts on the Pats and Steelers lines this week? I think both win fairly easily, but the Steelers are only favored by 2.5 (ML is -150) and the Pats are underdogs (ML +120, or +2.5 +100). Steelers are the best team in the league IMO, and Miami is coming off a big win last week, in for a let down. Chargers are banged up, and likely without their 2 best WRs and their kicker, and have a banged up TE. That's the heart of their team, the passing game with those 3 guys.


I think I'm doing a handful of parlays this week, incorporating these 6 games into them. Already locked in the 4-teamer.

Bad idea? I'm generally against so many parlays, but I'm fairly confident in these games.

Edit- just checked on a parlay for all 6 teams. +911. Might be worth a very small play

[ssk13809]

What are your thoughts on the Pats and Steelers lines this week? I think both win fairly easily, but the Steelers are only favored by 2.5 (ML is -150) and the Pats are underdogs (ML +120, or +2.5 +100). Steelers are the best team in the league IMO, and Miami is coming off a big win last week, in for a let down. Chargers are banged up, and likely without their 2 best WRs and their kicker, and have a banged up TE. That's the heart of their team, the passing game with those 3 guys.


I think I'm doing a handful of parlays this week, incorporating these 6 games into them. Already locked in the 4-teamer.

Bad idea? I'm generally against so many parlays, but I'm fairly confident in these games.

Edit- just checked on a parlay for all 6 teams. +911. Might be worth a very small play

Well to be honest I think PIT-MIA could go either way. But yes I would lean on PIT to win the game. They do look like the best team in the NFL, and I think Miami will have a very tough time scoring against Pittsburgh. Steelers I think might have trouble too moving the ball in Miami, so it will be a low scoring game. But yeah I expect Pittsburgh to win it. Though it's not a sure bet imo since Miami is still hungry for its 1st home win.

NE vs. SD? Well that depends a lot on Gates. If he plays I think SD takes it. Patriots are nowhere near as good on the road as they are at home, and SD has been very strong at home so far. Also desperation mode for them.


Nonetheless, +911 is pretty nice. It's actually worth the shot. I think the other 4 teams will win. These last 2 games will come down to the wire though.

[rsnnh12]

Well to be honest I think PIT-MIA could go either way. But yes I would lean on PIT to win the game. They do look like the best team in the NFL, and I think Miami will have a very tough time scoring against Pittsburgh. Steelers I think might have trouble too moving the ball in Miami, so it will be a low scoring game. But yeah I expect Pittsburgh to win it. Though it's not a sure bet imo since Miami is still hungry for its 1st home win.

NE vs. SD? Well that depends a lot on Gates. If he plays I think SD takes it. Patriots are nowhere near as good on the road as they are at home, and SD has been very strong at home so far. Also desperation mode for them.


Nonetheless, +911 is pretty nice. It's actually worth the shot. I think the other 4 teams will win. These last 2 games will come down to the wire though.

I agree.

Haven't gotten a chance to watch Seattle yet, since I'm east coast, but they've played pretty well from what I've heard. Looks like Carroll is doing a decent job. Hopefully they get the win this week, just locked in that parlay

[ssk13809]

I agree.

Haven't gotten a chance to watch Seattle yet, since I'm east coast, but they've played pretty well from what I've heard. Looks like Carroll is doing a decent job. Hopefully they get the win this week, just locked in that parlay

Good Luck. I won't be adding Atlanta to that parlay since I already have so much on them. It's practically the same thing though since I still need all 4 of those teams to win to hit, and even if 1 loses I lose.

But I might add something else to my parlay, maybe not. Waiting for Denver line to come out.


And Seahawks? They will be a good play. Unless a lot of bad luck hits, they will win easily.

But yeah,

good luck

[jolmscheid]

Like the plays ssk...will be tailing...

[ScottLocke]

Like Atlanta... not so sure about Seattle.

Arizona is coming off a bye, they beat New Orleans going into the bye, and I think they are very under-rated right now. Everyone thinks since Warner and Boldin are gone they suck. Yeah they aren't as good, but I still think they will win this division and if they're gonna do that, then this is a huge game for them. Plus they have completely owned Seattle the past few years. Seattle might win, I just think this line is inflated a bit higher than in should be coming off the impressive victory over the Bears. I have this line at -3.5 to -4.

[ssk13809]

Like Atlanta... not so sure about Seattle.

Arizona is coming off a bye, they beat New Orleans going into the bye, and I think they are very under-rated right now. Everyone thinks since Warner and Boldin are gone they suck. Yeah they aren't as good, but I still think they will win this division and if they're gonna do that, then this is a huge game for them. Plus they have completely owned Seattle the past few years. Seattle might win, I just think this line is inflated a bit higher than in should be coming off the impressive victory over the Bears. I have this line at -3.5 to -4.

Well I might be a little biased in the pick since I'm a Seahawks fan and live in Seattle.


But I don't think this is the case here. The only reason Cardinals beat the Saints were because they scored what 3 Defensive TDs? Their offense was as horrible as its always been. And look at how they have performed on the road. They got blown out by both Atlanta and San Diego. And it was pretty ugly in both cases.


What exactly are Cardinals going to do to beat Seattle? Forcing multiple TOs is their best hope. And I don't see that happening in Seattle like it did happen in Arizona. Besides for that, Seattle is a Top 5 Run D, and one of the best at putting pressure on the QB (will help). The Cardinals defense is horrible besides for forcing TOs, so as long as Seattle can hang on to the ball, they will dominate on that side as well. And we all know how good Seattle is at home already.



TOs can save it from being a blowout. But I'll take that bet.

[ssk13809]

The rest of my bets for the weekend



Saw the Falcons line dropped (shockingly)

I'll take 2 Team Parlay


Falcons -3
Falcons -175 ML


Risk 5
Win 9


I know I know, this seems like a trap the way the line has moved. But I don't care. I know what Matt Ryan can do at home, and I have seen what Carson Palmer can do period. Didn't put too much on it because I already have SO much on Atlanta.



3 Team Parlay


Ravens -675
Saints -725
Seahawks -270


Risk 10
Win 8



Already mentioned this. Would've added Atlanta too if I already didn't have 3 separate bets on them.



3 Team Parlay

Bears -155
Dolphins +130
Titans -160


Risk 1.9
Win 10



I couldn't find any big upsets this week. So I just set up a 3 Team Parlay with some of the closest games this week and predicting how they will go. Not much risk.

[ssk13809]

So really, all I can say is,


Go Falcons!

[rsnnh12]

Good luck this week! Only 1 I'm against you on is the parlay with Miami +3... what the Falcons are for you, the Steelers are for me

Lets get it!

[ssk13809]

Good luck this week! Only 1 I'm against you on is the parlay with Miami +3... what the Falcons are for you, the Steelers are for me

Lets get it!

Yeah


To be honest I'm really only going to be paying attention to the Falcons game 1st. Everything else comes afterwards.

[ssk13809]

Though I must say, I have bad money management skills. I pretty much put 30% of my BankRoll on the Falcons. One bad beat and I'm finished.



Matt Ryan and his 15-1 Home Record better stay strong.

[ScottLocke]

Wow dude, really. Are you really that dumb?

[ssk13809]

Wow dude, really. Are you really that dumb?

Falcons WILL win. That's for sure. Which at least gives me the ML win, and overall gives me wins for the ATL game.

[ScottLocke]

Falcons WILL win. That's for sure. Which at least gives me the ML win, and overall gives me wins for the ATL game.

Does it really matter? Its not like your really betting these games. Just admit it, and I promise to go easy on you.