LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[fly fisher]

and thanks LB

[JMobile]

LB, what do you think of this parlay all mL;
Eagles
Colts
Vikings
Chargers
Titans

[JoMoney2785]

Let's see how the sharps have been placing bets, or biding their time, in this week's NFL action. As always, games are presented in rotation order. Note that we have the first byes of the season this week (Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay), so there are two fewer games on the card than we've had in prior weeks.
DENVER AT TENNESSEE: Early action here has been on the total, with an opener of 41½ moving up to 43. Denver threw 57 passes last week in a loss to Indianapolis. Sharps tend to bet Overs with teams who establish they're going to pass THAT much. Even though Indy/Denver stayed Under the total, it took some badly timed luck to make that happen. Sharps, to this point, are more interested in the Over here than either team. Tennessee opened 6½ and hasn't budged. To me, that suggests sentiment on the underdog. If the sharps liked Tennessee they surely would have jumped in below the key number of 7. The fact that they didn't suggests they're hoping the public drives the line higher so they can take the dog, Denver, at +7.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: Strong early action on the Under here, with an opener of 36½ falling down to 34½. Pittsburgh spiked Under bets last week vs. Tampa Bay with some big passes from Charlie Batch. The totals guys don't think that will happen two weeks in a row. Plus, they remember how scoring Pittsburgh/Atlanta, Pittsburgh/Tennessee, Baltimore/NYJ, and Baltimore Cincinnati were. Support stopped once the number dipped below 35. Not much interest on the side yet. If Pittsburgh stays at -1½ through the weekend, teaser players will be moving Baltimore up past the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Dog and Under money at the openers have knocked Cincinnati -3½ and 38½ down to Cincinnati -3 and 37½. Carson Palmer has looked pretty horrible outside of garbage time against the soft New England defense. Sharps want to squeeze out any value they can find by asking that to continue.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: This game and the next both have lines near -14. Sharps will typically handle these games in the same way. They'll get in early on the favorite to take a position for a side or middle, then they'll come back on the dog once the public has hit the favorite over the weekend. If sharps like the dog, they'll make those second bets bigger than the first. If they don't have an opinion, they'll just hope for a middle. If they liked the favorite (rare, but it happens sometimes), they'll just keep that early position at the lower number knowing that they beat the closer.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The total here has fallen from 46½ down to 44, with Carolina's defense getting respect but the offense ranking as one of the worst in the league. A move of 2½ points is large...but the value may be gone now that the total has settled right at 44. It's not like there will be weather news that changes anyone's opinion in this dome game.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ATLANTA: I think this will be a game where sharps will like San Francisco at +7, but the public will like Atlanta at -6½. So, each store will price based on its clientele and how they want to be positioned on the game. The total is up to 42½ from an opener or 44½ based on the productivity Atlanta's offense has shown the last two weeks.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: A lot of totals moves this week, with this opener of 38 shooting up to 40. Sam Bradford has impressed some sharps, and they'd rather express that with a totals bet than a team side bet on the Rams. How can you ask St. Louis to win two weeks in a row? To this point, the majority of action has been on totals. That tells me sharps are focusing mostly on dogs...but they're waiting to see if they can pick up some value after the public money hits over the weekend.
NY JETS AT BUFFALO: Not much interest in this one. We've seen some dead spots this year when games are priced right at 5. There's not a critical number in play, and the basic strategy teaser window isn't an issue either. Sharps didn't hit the Jets at -5, suggesting they're thinking about Buffalo and hoping for +6 or better. Tough schedule spot for the Jets as a second straight road game, and third straight divisional game. The total has dropped a tick from 36½ down to 36.
INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE: No action here, with an opener of Indy -7 and 46 holding firm. Sharps don't like laying this kind of price on the road. Jacksonville has looked so bad the last two weeks that it's hard to have any enthusiasm for them. The public tends to bet on Peyton Manning, so we may see sharp dog money come in at +7½ or higher if the money moves the number.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Dog and Under support again here. Houston opened at -4 and 44, but we're now seeing Houston -3 and 43. You regulars know sharps typically shade toward dog and Under. If they bet early, it's because they figure the public isn't going to get very involved in the game. This isn't a big TV matchup or anything, so Wise Guys stepped in early and took more than a field goal while they could.
ARIZONA AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego's been at -8 all week, which is right in the teaser window. Maybe stores aren't worried about San Diego in teasers because of the soft defense. Or, there are so few qualifiers this week that it's not going to matter. Sportsbooks will be dealing with a lot of Baltimore-San Diego teaser combo's Sunday if the lines don't move. Hard to bet on either team at this price given Arizona's blowout loss at Atlanta, but San Diego's shaky form. The total is stuck on 46.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: This is the game everyone's waiting for, with Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia for the first time. Sharps took an early stab at Washington +6½ because they figured public sentiment would be on McNabb rather than Michael Vick. That moved the line down to +5½. Some thought sharps might wait to see if they could get a +7. But...too many sharps didn't trust other sharps to wait! The total is up to 42½ from an opener of 41 on the thought that both quarterbacks will have something to prove.
CHICAGO AT NY GIANTS: The Giants opened at -3, and jumped right to -4. Considering Chicago WON this past Monday Night, that's quite something. Clearly sharps are looking for a letdown in the short week for the Bears. This is what I mean about what happens when sharps like a favorite. They bet QUICK! If you're seeing NFL games where the line isn't moving toward the favorite right away, then they're looking at the dog and waiting for square action to drive the line up. The total is up to 44 from 42½. The Old Meadowlands used to get Under money. I'm interested to see what happens this year in the new stadium.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: Not much going on yet, with an opener of pick-em and 46½. We're not near a critical number. And, you can't shoot a middle at a zero because it's very rare to have a regular season tie. My take is that the sharps see it as a toss-up, and they'll fade the public if the public moves the line in one direction or the other figuring it's a free point or two. You know, it's a HUGE weekend in football...and the public may not get around to even thinking about this one until Monday afternoon.

absolutely great post, as always JR. thanks

[Tommy_de1st]

Agreed with JoMoney.
JR, you mentioned about sending those newsletter via pms or emails but if you post them all here it's ok with me

[Foals]

LB, do you like the Bills at home getting the points? With the public backing the Jets it should be a public bloodbath if the Bills were to win outright.

[paciophobia]

i didnt mean anything bad by this JR!! i meant it in a way that i was getting much needed info from you as well at that time. nothing directed towards you and to LB, everything good out of it. really appreciate your info.

seems like a jr thread now rather than an lb thread lol. any plays lb?

[clbonham2]

Its looking like an awesome day to parlay!

[F.Lucena]

Good luck today Lakerboy!

[opie1988]

JR007-

Great stuff. Don't worry about some douche griping that you're not LB.....keep the informative posts coming! Anyone that doesn't enjoy reading those type of threads is because its simply over their head. Many thanks again.

[eldian]

great info JR007 and thanks for the picks LB, bol!!!

[JR007]

Thanks Guys...i am just trying to help..that's all....i have the time to data-mine to see if we can get a edge......,knowledge is power....and to payback all that I have "learned here...in a small way... Now let's get some "loot out of them BITCH BOOKIES

[wquine]

appreciate both LB and JR's input on these threads 4 sure

[JR007]

So a quick question about this. My understanding is that one of the reasons we like to fade the public is because the Vergas line is sharp, so when the public love of a certain team drives that line away from the Vegas opener, then there is value in going against the public. So if the Vegas line is so far off why is fading the public so profitable?

That's a LB question.....I know that the oddsmakers have to factor "public perception" into their lines....to account for supply and demand......which can be exploited. ie Cowboys,Colts, etc,

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

hey lb how are ya just got back in here...wheres paco?

[msj0001]

hey lb how are ya just got back in here...wheres paco?

Paco posts all his football plays in the Baseball handicapping forum under his MY MLB thread

[msj0001]

LB you have any tips for which team I should leave out of this 3 team teaser??? Falcons -1, Colts -1, Ravens +9, Packers -9

[JVP3122]

LB you have any tips for which team I should leave out of this 3 team teaser??? Falcons -1, Colts -1, Ravens +9, Packers -9

Not LB, but I'd leave out the Packers. I never liked teasing a game and still laying that amount of points.

[Dexter]

great posts here JR...

good luck today LB....

[lakerboy]

Guys i dont do teasers and parlays so i cant help there.

[$Burm$]

LB, browns got hit pretty hard this morning, you thinking bout playing them still?
i really like them and also the under

[JR007]

Something I just picked off the waiver wire

"But one thing that can really make you vulnerable to NFL handicapping is putting too much stock into recent performances".

[dodgerblue]

Good luck LB. I don't have much confidence in Seattle offense OR defense, so I'm steering clear of this game.

Went for big $ 3 team sweetheart teaser - the games just looked too attractive not to do.

[JR007]

factored into the line

[SpreadSniper]

still in love with CLE LB?

[lakerboy]

Browns ML +115 (2x)

Browns TT over 17 -115 (1x)

[lakerboy]

Titans -6 -110 (2x)

[tombrady]

gluck lb , thanks for the picks

[memo99]

hey LB what do you think about bal/pitts do you think ravens D will get to batch and do you think pitts is looking ahead to next week when big ben will be back

[tombrady]

lb , hope seatlle is the play i am going with u big.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Seattle should win big even though they are notoriously a bad road team and a great home team. Personally, I wouldn't even bet that game. The best bet is San Diego to rebound from last week's loss and put up a double digit win hosting Arizona. I also like Houston's chances of blowing out Oakland.

[DC]

Browns ML +115 (2x)

Browns TT over 17 -115 (1x)

Money coming into Cleveland, line has dropped from +3 to +2 in the last 10 minutes on my book

[docvinny]

gl to all your plays today

[tombrady]

Money coming into Cleveland, line has dropped from +3 to +2 in the last 10 minutes on my book

so , what is that mean too many on cleveland?

[$Burm$]

browns r at 1.5 on pinny now

[$Burm$]

it means its a good thing if your on cleveland