nice calls keep it up
-
Comment -
Fukkin sick that was. +15units playing NFL and +10 in MLB. Sick
Comment -
Excellent job last nightComment -
Took your Dallas and bears picks so Thanks!
Good Luck
Comment -
Good morning all...LB if you taught this for a fee you would make a "killing"
Comment -
I went over to scores and odds...(thats what my local uses) they did not post a 2nd half lineComment -
Question for you guys ??? when you look on the sbr odds page and you see the opener to the left of the teams, is sbr using a "consensus" of all the books for the opener ???/ confused on this Thanks
Comment -
LB, anything good on Cards @ Chargers for this Sunday?Comment -
You can set the opener you want. In my case it is Pinny. Generally, Bookmaker/Cris is the first book that opens the spread and Greek/Pinny follow shortly. Look at what your opener is and compare the lines from the other books that opened. For me, Pinny is the first book listed on the far left on SBR Odds.
Nice call on the Bears. I had them too
I was torn on that game but a local I know told me that almost all his action was on the Bears and was giving +3.5-110...no brainer at that point. I think we were definitely on the right side of the money last nite as it was evident the Pack got hosed. As long as Cutler didn't fukk up to bad the refs had it in the bag.
Comment -
Great job man.... picked my nose the last 2 weeks, dropped a unit here and there, shoulda just jumped on the train.
Keep it up bro!Comment -
Nice call on the Bears LB.
Anyone here like the Jags +9?
If you were going to play the Jags would you:
A) Play them at +9 (-130)
B) Play them at +8.5 (-110)
C) Wait for the line to move
Any opinions welcome...Comment -
Line is going to do nothing but drop.... if you like JKV, get em now.Comment -
Thank You LyonComment -
Click in the opener box ...nothing...how do I set it ???
Comment -
Nice job LB
Comment -
Your very welcome.
Go to SBR odds page and near the top right you will it says "Settings" Click on settings and from there you can set the book you want to be the opener. From there you can also choose which books you want diplayed and what order. Hope this helps if not let me know.Comment -
Ok ....I set my book order....thats it right ???? I can't change the opener....to the left of the time...is that a default ???? missing something here ????Comment -
Got it .....what a dopie I am....thanks guysComment -
any thoughts on seattle -1 at st louis?Comment -
Division Game. Wierd line. I'm drinking the pariniod punch but I see the Rams??Comment -
NFL DOGS GO 11-5 ATS, WIN EIGHT GAMES OUTRIGHT!
It's happening kind of quietly, because we're not seeing many "monumental" upsets where teams that were supposed to be horrible are knocking off Super Bowl threats. But, we're still seeing some SHOCK THE SYSTEM results in terms of underdogs winning their games. Oddsmakers can't get the favorites right!
This past Sunday, fully SEVEN underdogs won their games outright:
Tennessee (+3) beat the NY Giants 29-10
Atlanta (+3.5) beat New Orleans 27-24
Kansas City (+3) beat San Francisco 31-10
Dallas (+3) beat Houston 27-13
St. Louis (+4) beat Washington 30-16
Seattle (+4) beat San Diego 27-20
NY Jets (+2) beat Miami 31-23
Then on Monday, the Bears (+3) shocked the Packers 20-17!
The pointspreads were all in the 2-4 range...but look at some of those victory margins. Four of the seven underdog victors won their games by double digits, thereby beating the spread by at least two touchdowns. The Seahawks and Jets also covered by double digits even if they didn't win straight up by that much.
Oddsmakers are really struggling right now with a variety of teams, and are doing a very poor job in my view of dealing with the intangibles. They don't know who's going to be flat, or motivated, or fresh, or tired. They're just hoping their Power Ratings are in the neighborhood while they hold on for dear life!
The other Sunday underdog winners were:
Buffalo (+14) covered in a 38-30 loss at New England
Cleveland (+11) covered in a 24-17 loss at Baltimore
Oakland (+5) covered in a 24-23 loss at Arizona
And, Oakland really should have won that game. They owned the stats but allowed a kickoff return for a TD.
Smart bettors focus on underdogs because that's where the value has historically been in the NFL. . I have a big edge over the oddsmakers who are really behind the eight ball right now.
Some keys to my edges:- Oddsmakers have been very slow to penalize big name teams from the past who have lost a few steps on defense. I'm not going to name them all. You can probably figure them out for yourself. If you can't, you shouldn't be placing Las Vegas bets! The public is slow to give up on big name teams, which makes it tougher for the line to move to where it really should be.
- Oddsmakers have been slow to recognize improvement from some of the recent doormats. There was no way ALL of the bad teams from the last few seasons were going to stay as bad as they were. Many are showing improvement. The lines just aren't adjusting fast enough. It might be Week Eight or Week Nine before they finally catch up.
- Oddsmakers haven't fully accounted for how well teams run the clock now. It's just harder to win by big margins than it used to be...even if you've got the superior side. You need some cheap points off of turnovers or special teams too. Top teams can count on getting those every week, so you'll see some "on-sided" games that finish up in the 8-10 range margin wise instead of 13-17 points. This has been a big boost to dog players who know which teams are shortening their games.
Comment -
great post JR, as always..
Comment -
Again, if anyone need/wants newsletters...including RAS/releases...19-8 so far this year, pm meComment -
LB what do you think about the oakland game?Comment -
liking the over in the eagles game, broncos game, falcons game. under in the ravens game, under in the browns game, under in the panthers game. Isn't 42 a big number for totals? pushing it past that has to take alot of money on it right? or did i read that wrong somewhere.Comment -
THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS LOSING BADLY IN THE OPENING WEEKS OF THE SEASON
"It's been a tough year so far for"squares," the term we use in Nevada for the general public. They've been losing a little bit in the colleges by most accounts, and a lot in the NFL.
Now, different stores will have different experiences depending on their clientele. Not all joints are the same in terms of the numbers they hang in the hours before kickoff, and their walk-in traffic. The places that get a lot of square action but not much sharp action are very happy so far. Those who are more balanced are grinding out wins, but not in the same one-sided fashion.
The important thing for YOU to remember is that you don't want to bet like a square! I keep telling you to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp. If you think like a square and bet like a square, you're going to have some very bad stretches like we've seen in September of 2010.
What's happened so far this year to hurt squares?- NFL underdogs are getting the money at a very strong clip. The public tends to bet favorites, particularly in the NFL. The public also likes betting a lot of parlays, and they put favorites in those parlays. Squares can turn 3-3 into a disaster because so many of the parlays lose. Favorites aren't even covering anywhere near a 50/50 rate so far.
- Big name pro teams are having trouble covering numbers. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS or 0-2-1 ATS depending on your lines. The Cowboys are 1-2 ATS. New England is 1-2 ATS. San Diego is 1-2 ATS. Indianapolis lost their season opener so badly that the public backed off a bit the next two weeks when they actually won and covered. When those teams are doing well, it's duck and cover for sportsbooks. Squares will have the"blowout" teams in game bets and parlays. So far this year, those teams aren't reaching expectations very often.
- Many big name college teams aren't getting the job done either. Both Texas and Oklahoma, for example, have struggled to reach their Vegas spreads. Florida pulled an Indianapolis and looked so bad in their opener that people were afraid to bet them before they started covering again. The public didn't bet Boise State in the Virginia Tech game, but then DID bet them in the Oregon State game they didn't cover. Southern Cal got support against Hawaii, Virginia, and Minnesota in non-covers. Everyone gave up on them just before they blew out Washington State.
Sportsbooks always figure they'll get the square money eventually. Even if squares manage to win for a season, they'll just lose it back the next season. This has been a surprisingly quick windfall. And, it's something will have to monitor here in the web articles all season. Right now, sportsbooks are taking positions against squares. If the square money dries up because of so many early losers, it will be more of a showdown between oddsmakers and sharps down the road."Comment -
any leans so far lb?Comment -
See Jr remember what i said at the beginning of the year? I said the books were after the public this year early on after last years shit kickin the book took early on. THe lines are super sharp this year for squares who keep laying points in bad spots. I keep tellling anyone who will listen you dont lay points on the road and you take home dogs in good spots.Comment -
Yes......Comment -
last year was hands down one of the worst years ever for them i have to imagine.. up until the playoffs it seemed like they kept getting killed man.. but playoffs and superbowl they got it all back..
glad you like oakland man.. if the juice starts dropping on houston i am probably going to have to unload..Comment -
LB ...............maybe between your expertise and others feedback....we can get everyone on the right page...that includes myself (49's three weeks in a row)........like you say "the right play does not always win..." but with Nfl lines being so sharp...no use playing into the oddsmakers traps..these lines are designed to leave both the front door and the backdoor cover open.....favorites an overs etc.......mistakes cost money...sucks to have to lose your paycheck or pay out your ass....due too square losing streaks...whatch what happens when the baseball playoffs start...teams in "must win situations" another trap.......must win does not mean win...see what the juice is on those playsComment -
Great write ups JR about the dogs and the general public. Hope to cash in on the dogs again this week.Comment -
I am a "old sheepie for sure" but remember " there is always a new way to lose"
Comment
