RLM

[ThaWoj]

This isn't RLM, but I believe betting on favorites coming off of a bye has been pretty profitable over the years. This week there are quite a few teams who fit this criteria.

i've always used this, unfortunately the jets burned me last week...

[AdrianMcPherson]

"In theory", don't books normally look to get an even amount from each side? So if one side has 70 percent of the public on it, wouldn't it mean that the 30 percent side is just making larger wagers? I'm sure if a book is close to 100 percent certain on the outcome of a game they would hedge toward one side over another, but why risk it?

There's been some anecdotal reporting (Chad Millman at ESPN -- sorry, can't find the exact link) and academic research (Strumpf, 2003, for starters) indicating that books often end up betting on a side. The paper gets into several reasons (bookmakers are generally not risk-adverse people, because they believe they have better info, smaller books can hedge by betting with larger ones, etc.).


Best of luck and remember that money management is as important as handicapping skill.


- A.

[clbonham2]

Detroit Lions are 6-1 against the spread this year. Thought that might help!

[LT Profits]

Week 9 as of right now:

Dallas Cowboys

[thebestthereis]

if dallas cares anymore they will cover this game no problem (assuming no ridiculous turnovers). i don't know if they care.

[alex81]

I guarantee that the line for Dallas will drop as this is a system play... Cowboys have failed to cover 4 in a row and therefore this is a B bet under John Morrison's NFL system... Historically this system is a very high percentage play on the B bet.

[alex81]

Cleveland line now at +4 at most sportsbooks... This is a full 1 pt movement. 80% of public on Pats. Is this a strong enough RLM play?

[Totolover1409]

still +4.5 at my book. Wait it out til perhaps saturday night since I'm afraid it may move back to half point movement.

[jon13009]

Great stuff as always. I prefer taking RLMs that are at home and greater than 1.0 points. Good luck this week.

[dodger33]

Cleveland line now at +4 at most sportsbooks... This is a full 1 pt movement. 80% of public on Pats. Is this a strong enough RLM play?

I have it opening at 6.5 at pinny. Strong play imo

[doin]

OK VS TX A&M - OK 82%, 12000 wages, open -4, current -3

ARIZ ST VS USC - USC 74%, 12000 wages, open -6, current -5

[ThaWoj]

I have it opening at 6.5 at pinny. Strong play imo

yeah this game is scary. you'd think pats in a blowout, but the line would indicate otherwise...

[GGPLAYER]

OK VS TX A&M - OK 82%, 12000 wages, open -4, current -3

ARIZ ST VS USC - USC 74%, 12000 wages, open -6, current -5

there is a whole thread for NCAA plays.

[thebestthereis]

I guarantee that the line for Dallas will drop as this is a system play... Cowboys have failed to cover 4 in a row and therefore this is a B bet under John Morrison's NFL system... Historically this system is a very high percentage play on the B bet.

in the neighborhood of 6 to 7 people on earth play that system, and if they do it is for the change in their couch

[shawood]

somebody confirm or deny my thinking on this..at sports.com they hav the ml at 72% bills but the opening line was bears -1 now it is -3 so would that be a rlm or am i missing something?

[playr101]

11/07/2010
01:00 PM 405 - Chicago Bears

406 - Buffalo Bills
20271 -1 -120
+1 111 -3 -101
+3 -107

[playr101]

so.. sportsinsights has majority, %53 on the bills.. going from +1 to +3...

so play is going towards .. the bears....
early though

-playr101

[playr101]

now cleveland looks like a play !

11/07/2010
01:00 PM 419 - New England Patriots

420 - Cleveland Browns
37228 -5 -104
+5 -104 -3.5 -103
+3.5 -105

-playr101

[playr101]

shit looks like hell...

83% on NE... and line went from -3 to -5.5

-playr101

[playr101]

eagles and cowboys looking good too..

fuk copy/paste...

but i will let toto and doublej.. go into the official plays..



-playr101

[shawood]

ok so if i follow u correctly plyr1 maj of people r betting bills so realisticly u would expect the line to go from bills +1 to pk or -1 bills hypothetically with people betting on them.... same with sd and hou... 53% of bets r going to hou and the line opened at -1.5 for sd and it is now -3 sd with the maj of bets going to hou would expect sd to go to -.5 to +.5 but instead they r -3 so the plays would b bears and chargers... correct?... but with clev and ne isnt that what u would expect with 83% going on ne ...them to b favored by more?

[playr101]

as it is looking... yes on both of those games... bills moving 2 points and chargers moving 1.5 points...
but only at 53% on both those games... so give it a little time.. i dont think they meet all the rules that have been established in this RLM system... lets get the experts in it.. Toto and doubleJ for example...

-playr101

[shawood]

ya i am just trying to get a feel for it so i can do it myself when they r mia ...just checking to make sure what i am looking at is correct or how i am analyzing it is in theory correct.... thanks for ur help playr

[playr101]

im the same way bro.. was watching this/ and other threads .. just to learn.. in case.. in the future.. i am on my own.. which is going to happen.. seems like a good system/theory to follow...



-playr101

[kingdom]

there is a whole thread for NCAA plays.

I was wondering. I gotta find that one.

[alex81]

It looks like the best plays (minimum -1.5 line movement) are Dallas +7, K.C. -1, Cleveland +3.5 There may be some more last minute opportunities but the numbers say as of right now these 3 are the plays.

[playr101]

I was wondering. I gotta find that one.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-ncaa-rlm.html

-playr101

[jagermeister1]

I'm on KC bet for sure.

[shawood]

ok i am confused....11/07/2010
04:15 PM 423 - Kansas City Chiefs

424 - Oakland Raiders
28809 +2.5 -102
-2.5 -106 -1 -101
+1 -107

according to this KC is getting higher % of bets so line has moved the way it should..why would kc b a play...it looks like a no play to me

[CrimsonQueen]

SBR odds has Oak getting 56% of the bets.... and the line moved from +3 for KC to a PICK.

[Totolover1409]

KC is definitely not RLM! Cleveland does look like it. i'm kinda scared to play it though since its the Pats and Bill Belichick but I'm not gonna let that stop me.

Cleveland definitely a play for me if the line doesnt change. Wont be here in the morning as I'm running a half marathon tomorrow morning.

[JFCvsRXB]

scary that the browns are the strongest rlm play out there right now, for the morning games at least...

[alex81]

kc may not be a perfect case of rlm but seeing this much movement on any game not influenced by public perception cannot be ignored. sharp money is all over kc... my guess is that this movement is influenced by injuries to oakland.

[playr101]

KC is definitely not RLM! Cleveland does look like it. i'm kinda scared to play it though since its the Pats and Bill Belichick but I'm not gonna let that stop me. Cleveland definitely a play for me if the line doesnt change. Wont be here in the morning as I'm running a half marathon tomorrow morning.

get that half in under 2hrs...

have fun

-playr101

[DeluxeLiner]

Cleveland Browns are looking like a play for sure. Also the Cowboys. Eagles and Cardinals have some potential.