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  • packbacker79
    Restricted User
    • 10-09-10
    • 96

    #316
    Im sorry I am just getting back here. Its my daughters bday so we had plans this morning and I wasnt able to access board on my phone. After seeing the Syracuse line move back the other way I stayed away from it. It no longer qualifies at RLM. I did play Arkansas St and Vandy. Had I been able to access computer I would have also played Illinois as there was RLM in that one closer to game time.
    Comment
    • packbacker79
      Restricted User
      • 10-09-10
      • 96

      #317
      Week 7 As of now

      South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)


      Vanderbilt +14 (Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 64% on Georgia) 19K Wagers
      Arkansas St +9.5 (Line went from +14 to +9.5 with 72% on Indiana) 6,000
      Illinois +6.5 (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 (key #) w. 73% on Mich State) 39,000
      *No play on Syracuse bc the line changed back to +2.5 closer to gametime.


      6pm Kentucky +5.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 w. 71% on South Carolina) 27k
      7pm
      Wisconsin +4 (Line went from +6 to +4 with 73% on Ohio St) 31K

      8pm San Diego St +1 (Line went from +3.5 to +1 with 69% on Air Force) 14K
      ** Looking like a no play Miss St +9 (Line went from +9.5 to +9 with 75% on Florida) 22K

      Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 65% on Oregon St) 15K
      Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 16K
      Comment
      • GGPLAYER
        SBR MVP
        • 03-26-09
        • 2981

        #318
        I bet Pit but only 1 unit and put 2 units on Vandy Why can't they score? I skipped Ark St but did a teaser with them and the over so I need some serious points scored in the 4th quarter. Starting off slow but I like the later games; Kentucky, Wis, etc.

        I looked at Ill and almost posted it as a play but the line move was only 1 point and we want at least 1.5 move so I opted not to bet it. Right now Mich St is covering.

        Sh*t!! GA scored again...it's 36-0. That game is toast.
        Comment
        • dogs1972
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-22-09
          • 509

          #319
          Are we suppose to fade these? Is that how the system works?
          Comment
          • QuantumLeap
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-08
            • 6883

            #320
            Originally posted by packbacker79
            Im sorry I am just getting back here. Its my daughters bday so we had plans this morning and I wasnt able to access board on my phone. After seeing the Syracuse line move back the other way I stayed away from it. It no longer qualifies at RLM. I did play Arkansas St and Vandy. Had I been able to access computer I would have also played Illinois as there was RLM in that one closer to game time.
            I've also been paying attention to lines that have RLM but move the other way like the Syracuse game. The Central Florida/Marshall game had -7 down to -5 and then back up to -6.5. CFU ended up winning that game 35-14. Pitt is up 45-14 in the 4th.

            We have another game Navy/SMU. Navy started out at -2, went down to PK and now is back up to -1 1/2. Might be something to look out for.
            Comment
            • dogs1972
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-22-09
              • 509

              #321
              Originally posted by packbacker79
              Week 7 As of now

              South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)


              Vanderbilt +14 (Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 64% on Georgia) 19K Wagers
              Arkansas St +9.5 (Line went from +14 to +9.5 with 72% on Indiana) 6,000
              Illinois +6.5 (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 (key #) w. 73% on Mich State) 39,000
              *No play on Syracuse bc the line changed back to +2.5 closer to gametime.


              6pm Kentucky +5.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 w. 71% on South Carolina) 27k
              7pm
              Wisconsin +4 (Line went from +6 to +4 with 73% on Ohio St) 31K

              8pm San Diego St +1 (Line went from +3.5 to +1 with 69% on Air Force) 14K
              ** Looking like a no play Miss St +9 (Line went from +9.5 to +9 with 75% on Florida) 22K

              Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 65% on Oregon St) 15K
              Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 16K
              Syracuse a no play? Are you changing your plays from what you posted after they have lost?
              Comment
              • GGPLAYER
                SBR MVP
                • 03-26-09
                • 2981

                #322
                Originally posted by dogs1972
                Syracuse a no play? Are you changing your plays from what you posted after they have lost?

                It's up to you to make a play or not. Packbacker is listing early games showing RLM. You need to check the lines game day. I posted today not to play SU and in fact bet on Pitt based on the comeback of the line.

                So I'm 4-1 on the day but only up 2 units thanks to Vandy. Huge comeback for me in the Ark St/IU game. Lot's of scoring 4th quarter to give me the Over and the teaser with Ark St and the Over.

                So far today RLM is 1-1
                Comment
                • GGPLAYER
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-26-09
                  • 2981

                  #323
                  Originally posted by packbacker79
                  Week 7 As of now

                  South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)


                  Vanderbilt +14 (Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 64% on Georgia) 19K Wagers
                  Arkansas St +9.5 (Line went from +14 to +9.5 with 72% on Indiana) 6,000
                  Illinois +6.5 (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 (key #) w. 73% on Mich State) 39,000
                  *No play on Syracuse bc the line changed back to +2.5 closer to gametime.


                  6pm Kentucky +5.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 w. 71% on South Carolina) 27k
                  7pm
                  Wisconsin +4 (Line went from +6 to +4 with 73% on Ohio St) 31K

                  8pm San Diego St +1 (Line went from +3.5 to +1 with 69% on Air Force) 14K
                  ** Looking like a no play Miss St +9 (Line went from +9.5 to +9 with 75% on Florida) 22K

                  Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 65% on Oregon St) 15K
                  Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 16K

                  Kentucky scared me a little because it only ended up with one point of movement. I still went with it...hope they come back. I'm thinking Wis is a big play the line is all they way down to 3.5. Hope they cover! Miss St is off the board. I'm not liking Hawaii right now either. Was still looks good. Let's go Wild Cats!!
                  Comment
                  • packbacker79
                    Restricted User
                    • 10-09-10
                    • 96

                    #324
                    Looks like Miss State wasnt a bad play after all.
                    Comment
                    • EXhoosier10
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-06-09
                      • 3122

                      #325
                      solid day for RLM.
                      Comment
                      • packbacker79
                        Restricted User
                        • 10-09-10
                        • 96

                        #326
                        Started off rough but finished strong. Wisc and Kentucky...solid upsets.
                        Comment
                        • spargament
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-22-09
                          • 1739

                          #327
                          hope it continues into the was game
                          Comment
                          • QuantumLeap
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-08
                            • 6883

                            #328
                            Originally posted by packbacker79
                            Looks like Miss State wasnt a bad play after all.
                            Miss St moved back just like the Syracuse play. Does that mean you no longer consider it RLM?

                            Comment
                            • packbacker79
                              Restricted User
                              • 10-09-10
                              • 96

                              #329
                              Generally I use the final line for deciding on RLM. So Syracuse and Miss State were no plays.
                              Comment
                              • packbacker79
                                Restricted User
                                • 10-09-10
                                • 96

                                #330
                                Week 7

                                South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)
                                Vanderbilt +14 L (Blow Out)(Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 64% on Georgia) 19K Wagers
                                Arkansas St +9.5 W (Line went from +14 to +9.5 with 72% on Indiana) 6,000
                                Illinois +6.5 L (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 (key #) w. 73% on Mich State) 39,000
                                Kentucky +5.5 W (Outright Win)(Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 w. 71% on South Carolina) 27k
                                Wisconsin +4 W (Outright Win)(Line went from +6 to +4 with 73% on Ohio St) 31K
                                San Diego St +1 W (Outright Win)(Line went from +3.5 to +1 with 69% on Air Force) 14K
                                Washington -1.5 L (Lost by 1/2 pt)(Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 65% on Oregon St) 15K
                                Hawaii +6.5 W (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 16K


                                RLM that was missed because line changed close to gametime and I was busy:
                                Duke +16 W (Line went from +19.5 to +16 with 78% on Miami)

                                6-4 (60%)

                                This week reminded me of week 3 when system when 66% just to have it go over 80% for weeks 4, 5, and 6. Lets hope we have a great week next week. Will be posting NFL soon.

                                And I have to say its pretty exited to pick a game like Wisc on KY when EVERYONE I know was on the other side and they have an outright win.
                                Comment
                                • Totolover1409
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-14-08
                                  • 1400

                                  #331
                                  5-3. not bad
                                  Comment
                                  • frpm00
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 10-01-09
                                    • 59

                                    #332
                                    5-4 you forgot the Wash game was a Loss.
                                    Comment
                                    • DeluxeLiner
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-29-08
                                      • 4132

                                      #333
                                      I have no NFL plays for today
                                      Comment
                                      • ThaWoj
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-09-10
                                        • 6766

                                        #334
                                        Originally posted by packbacker79
                                        [FONT=verdana][FONT=verdana]Week 7 As of now



                                        6pm Kentucky +5.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 w. 71% on South Carolina) 27k
                                        7pm
                                        Wisconsin +4 (Line went from +6 to +4 with 73% on Ohio St) 31K

                                        8pm San Diego St +1 (Line went from +3.5 to +1 with 69% on Air Force) 14K
                                        ** Looking like a no play Miss St +9 (Line went from +9.5 to +9 with 75% on Florida) 22K

                                        Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 65% on Oregon St) 15K
                                        Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 16K
                                        Loss 6 Team Parlay
                                        Win 10/16/10 6:00pm College Football 128 Kentucky +6 -118* vs South Carolina
                                        Win 10/16/10 7:00pm College Football 129 Mississippi State +10 -130* vs Florida
                                        Loss 10/16/10 10:15pm College Football 162 Washington U -2½ -110* vs Oregon State
                                        Win 10/16/10 7:00pm College Football 188 Wisconsin +4 -110* vs Ohio State
                                        Win 10/16/10 8:00pm College Football 194 San Diego State +1 -110* vs Air Force
                                        Win 10/16/10 11:30pm College Football 198 Hawaii +7 -125* vs Nevada



                                        fml for doing a parlay but very nice for the people who jumped on these late games and did something else with them. great job packerbacker, i'll look for your posts next saturday
                                        Comment
                                        • GGPLAYER
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-26-09
                                          • 2981

                                          #335
                                          Ok I hope I did not talk anyone out of Hawaii last night because that was another big RLM win. I just personally did not want to push my luck any further. Lot's of different views on which games were RLM but I have the final total at 6-3. Nobody was counting Hawaii in the above posts and I did not consider Ill a play since the line moved just 1 point. But some could argue that Kentucky was not a play either because it closed at 5.5. Either way the games I have as winner are: Ark St/KU/Wisc/SD St/Hawaii/Duke. Losers were: Vandy/S. Fla/Was.

                                          Something I will do going forward is bet the ML on a team which goes from dog to fav and stays under the key number of 3. That was a BS loss to take yesterday with Was and I would have finished the day 9-0 after that Vandy loss. Can't complain since I earsed my horrible week and finished with positive units. No more betting during the week for me unless a game shows major RLM and or other angles that support betting it. I have had 2 big Sat in a row but little to show for it.

                                          Interesting thing I'm startign to notice is most of these games that won for us where unranked teams taking on top 25 schools. The public really gets in a bed with those and it gives us as bettors a great opp to take advantage. The books are smart and they killed it yesterday. Might want to start considering taking small ML bets on these too: KU/Wisc/SD St/Hawaii all won SU.
                                          Comment
                                          • GGPLAYER
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-26-09
                                            • 2981

                                            #336
                                            Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
                                            I have no NFL plays for today

                                            You don't consider Sea a play?

                                            Chi opened -7 (47,000 bets) 70% action on Chi, line is now -6 RLM 1pt (off a key #) I am betting Sea +6
                                            Comment
                                            • ThaWoj
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 03-09-10
                                              • 6766

                                              #337
                                              Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                              You don't consider Sea a play?

                                              Chi opened -7 (47,000 bets) 70% action on Chi, line is now -6 RLM 1pt (off a key #) I am betting Sea +6
                                              GL ggplayer, i'm with you on seattle, although i used them in a 13pt teaser on 5dimes. Their 'teaser' line was chicago -7 so i have seattle +20.

                                              Hopefully cutler is more banged up than what we are being told
                                              Comment
                                              • Tymmy
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-22-09
                                                • 167

                                                #338
                                                RLM- N.O./T.B.

                                                Earlier in week N.O -5

                                                N.O. pounded all week, now -4
                                                Comment
                                                • wacked
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-13-09
                                                  • 719

                                                  #339
                                                  The only 2 plays I'm seeing are Seattle and Philly.
                                                  69% Chicago, line has moved -1 (-7 to -6)
                                                  72% Atlanta, line has moved up to -2 (-3 to -1) Some places still have it at -2.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GGPLAYER
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-26-09
                                                    • 2981

                                                    #340
                                                    Originally posted by wacked
                                                    The only 2 plays I'm seeing are Seattle and Philly.
                                                    69% Chicago, line has moved -1 (-7 to -6)
                                                    72% Atlanta, line has moved up to -2 (-3 to -1) Some places still have it at -2.
                                                    The Atl game is not RLM. +3 to +1. The line is moving the way it should with all the bets on Atl.

                                                    Sea is a for sure play for me now. Line has dropped to +5.5.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • packbacker79
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                      • 96

                                                      #341
                                                      For 1pm round the only RLM play I see is Seattle. Also keeping an eye on the 49ers. 1.2 pt RLM so far today with 60% on Oakland. San Fran at home and need a win.

                                                      NON RLM game I am watching is Redskins. 74% of of 67,000 wagers on Indy but the line has not moved off +3. Skins at home.

                                                      Another game to watch is San Diego. There is NO RLM here but the Pinny line jumped up to -9.5 when it is -8 or -8.5 at every other book. Pinny is a sharp book the way this looks it seems like Pinny wants line shoppers to take St Louis at Pinny. Makes me wonder if they had some serious cash come in on San Diego.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • GGPLAYER
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-26-09
                                                        • 2981

                                                        #342
                                                        Originally posted by Tymmy
                                                        RLM- N.O./T.B.

                                                        Earlier in week N.O -5

                                                        N.O. pounded all week, now -4

                                                        This line has moved from -4 to -6.....NOT RLM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • troutsky
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-31-10
                                                          • 509

                                                          #343
                                                          what website are you guys looking at for these trends? i use scores and odds.

                                                          not seeing any real plays except chicago? maybe im looking at this wrong.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • packbacker79
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 10-09-10
                                                            • 96

                                                            #344
                                                            Seattle +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Chicago)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TakeIt
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 04-23-10
                                                              • 778

                                                              #345
                                                              Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                              Ok I hope I did not talk anyone out of Hawaii last night because that was another big RLM win. I just personally did not want to push my luck any further.
                                                              what's luck got to do with it???
                                                              Comment
                                                              • doublej95
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-26-10
                                                                • 14094

                                                                #346
                                                                Originally posted by troutsky
                                                                what website are you guys looking at for these trends? i use scores and odds.

                                                                not seeing any real plays except chicago? maybe im looking at this wrong.

                                                                I use sportsinsights.com
                                                                Comment
                                                                • packbacker79
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 10-09-10
                                                                  • 96

                                                                  #347
                                                                  Heading out for a bit but just saw that line in Oak/ SF game has moved a bit more. At Pinny line has gonne from San Fran -6.5 to -7.5 with 60% on Oak. If this stays the same I will probably play SF. Wont be back until after kickoff to update so watch the line up until then.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • packbacker79
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 10-09-10
                                                                    • 96

                                                                    #348
                                                                    San Fran -7.5
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • gvo
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 10-14-09
                                                                      • 280

                                                                      #349
                                                                      this thread is very educational and profitable, thanks packbacker and ggplayer, your hard work and wisdom are greatly appreciated!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • packbacker79
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 10-09-10
                                                                        • 96

                                                                        #350
                                                                        Seattle +6 W (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Chicago)
                                                                        San Francisco -7.5 W (Line went from -6.5 to -7.5 with 601% on Oakland)

                                                                        2-0
                                                                        Comment
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