RLM

[DeluxeLiner]

As of Saturday night I have no play. I am not playing Kansas City because the line has moved enough and I dont think there is any value. I won't play it if it moves down any further either for the same reason. I am also not playing NY Giants, unless it moves some more and I get a stale line then I will play it. The line just hasn't moved really and was 3.5 for a very short time early in the week. I am not playing the Chicago/Car game because Cutlers injury affected the line and I am also weary of that game anyway cuz there are some unknowns (how will the coaches respond?)

So no plays as of now but that could change

[Totolover1409]

I will be playing Kansas City +7 for those who want me to keep track of RLM. I will be going pretty big on this one (5 units).

Best of luck everyone. This is the only RLM I see this weekend.

[A's Fan]

ok cool on KC

[doin]

ya'll have typed ya dont think rml works well on ncaaf. i used it saturday, the 9th on LSU *win*, toledo *win*, Syracuse *win*, Tulane *lose*, iowa st *lose*, and Kentucky *win*. I'm happy with it. I'll do my capping again next week and post if you're interested in matching.

had some question tho. when the smart money makes the gamble it is with better spread, line changes after her bet. so, am i always to buy back the points that were lost to the sharps?

bol on nfl to everyone today.

[DeluxeLiner]

ya'll have typed ya dont think rml works well on ncaaf. i used it saturday, the 9th on LSU *win*, toledo *win*, Syracuse *win*, Tulane *lose*, iowa st *lose*, and Kentucky *win*. I'm happy with it. I'll do my capping again next week and post if you're interested in matching.

had some question tho. when the smart money makes the gamble it is with better spread, line changes after her bet. so, am i always to buy back the points that were lost to the sharps?

bol on nfl to everyone today.

no. don't bet after the line crosses the 3 or 7 because any edge is lost because of the importance of those two numbers. the difference between a 5.5 and 4.5 is not nearlyas important as the difference between 7.5 and 6.5

[Blazermaniac]

RLM.....Buffalo. Open as -1.....went to +1 then back to -1. Keep an eye on it.

[packbacker79]

Buffalo L
(62% on Jax but line went from Jax +1 to Jax +2.5.) Looked good early.
KC L
(66% on Colts but line went from Colts -9 to Colts -7.5)
Browns L
(80% on ATL..Over 50,000 wagers total so far but line hasnt moved off -3)
Giants W
(68% on Houston but line went from HOU -3.5 to -3 = suspicious)
Arizona W
(81% on N.O.over 48,000 wagers total so far. No RLM but sticking at the -7)
Dallas L
(54% on Tenn but line went from TENN +5 to TENN +7 making TENN the bait bet)
Philly W
(63% of 110,000 wagers but line has not moved off +3)

Last couple weekends have been much better than this. Lets see what next week looks like.

[dvb02]

Good luck today guys!

[dodger33]

I will be playing Kansas City +7 for those who want me to keep track of RLM. I will be going pretty big on this one (5 units). Best of luck everyone. This is the only RLM I see this weekend.

Good luck Toto!

[Totolover1409]

Sorry for those who tailed the KC game and lost. Was 9-9 up until the 4th quarter and I dunno wtf happene after that. RLM for me is now 7-5, not that great.


Sorry again.

[JoMoney2785]

college RLM was great again this weekend

[packbacker79]

RLM system overall this week including games I did not play.

Kansas St +10.5 L (Line went from +12 to +10.5 with 67% on NEB)
Rugers +5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +5 with 62% on Uconn)
Syracuse +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 when 67% were on S. Fla)
Michigan St +5 W (Outright win) (Line stayed at +5 even though 64% on Mich)
Boston Col +9.5 L (Bc I was there pulling for the Pack (Stayed at +10 w. 78% on Pack)
N. Illinois -3 W (Big win) (Line stayed at -3 with 58% on Temple)
Wake Forest +3 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3 with 55% on Navy)
Georgia -11.5 W (Big win) (Line went from -11 to -11.5 with 68% on Tenn)
Iowa State +6 L (Big Loss) (Line went from +7.5 to +6 with 79% on Utah)
Central Mich +21.5 L (Lost by 2.5pts) (Line went from +24 to +21.5 with 71% on Va Tech)
Ohio -8 W (Big Win) (Line went from -7.5 to -8 with 54% on Bowling Green)
East Carolina +8 W (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 71% on So Miss)
South Carolina +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 with 74% on Bama)
LSU +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from -7.5 to -6.5 with 73% on Florida)
Texas Tech -2 W (Line went from -1 to -2 even though 58% on Baylor)
Tx A&M +5 L (Close) (Line went from +8.5 to +5 even though 82% on Arkansas)
La Tech -2 W (Big win) (Line went from +3 to -2 with 60% on Utah St)
BYU +4.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +4.5 with 67% on San Diego St)
Kentucky +5.5 W (Line went from +8 to +5.5 with 79% on Auburn)
Purdue +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 with 66% on Northwestern)
New Mexico +2.5 W (Barely) (Line went from +3.5 to +2.5 with 56% om New Mex St)
Tulsa +6.5 W (Line went from +6.5 to +6.5 even though 62% on SMU)
Western Kentucky +9 W (Line went from +9 to +9 even though 79% were on Fl Intl)

16-4 with 7 dogs winning outright.

Diesel and Goaline...I would like to team up with you guys and compare notes as we head into next weekend.

NFL was 3-4 this weekend but that was after 3 weeks of 4-1 or 5-1 so could have just been a weird weekend. Would have been 4-2 if KC could have hit that FG at the end.

[Dark Horse]

Just a few thoughts.

RLM theory is obviously based on sharps knowing more than public. So make sure that the line doesn't move because of news. Colts line moved after new of injury to safety Bullit (Sanders out already, so Colts were scrambling at safety). No sharp angle.

The strongest play was NYG, because of the movement unto a key number. The JAX line movement from 1.5 to 2.5 wasn't nearly as significant. You could use push frequencies to assign a number to each line movement.

For NFL I would only use 60% and higher, and not include lines that don't move (or record them separately).

[Dark Horse]

RLM system overall this week including games I did not play.

Kansas St +10.5 L (Line went from +12 to +10.5 with 67% on NEB)
Rugers +5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +5 with 62% on Uconn)
Syracuse +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 when 67% were on S. Fla)
Michigan St +5 W (Outright win) (Line stayed at +5 even though 64% on Mich)
Boston Col +9.5 L (Bc I was there pulling for the Pack (Stayed at +10 w. 78% on Pack)
N. Illinois -3 W (Big win) (Line stayed at -3 with 58% on Temple)
Wake Forest +3 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3 with 55% on Navy)
Georgia -11.5 W (Big win) (Line went from -11 to -11.5 with 68% on Tenn)
Iowa State +6 L (Big Loss) (Line went from +7.5 to +6 with 79% on Utah)
Central Mich +21.5 L (Lost by 2.5pts) (Line went from +24 to +21.5 with 71% on Va Tech)
Ohio -8 W (Big Win) (Line went from -7.5 to -8 with 54% on Bowling Green)
East Carolina +8 W (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 71% on So Miss)
South Carolina +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 with 74% on Bama)
LSU +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from -7.5 to -6.5 with 73% on Florida)
Texas Tech -2 W (Line went from -1 to -2 even though 58% on Baylor)
Tx A&M +5 L (Close) (Line went from +8.5 to +5 even though 82% on Arkansas)
La Tech -2 W (Big win) (Line went from +3 to -2 with 60% on Utah St)
BYU +4.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +4.5 with 67% on San Diego St)
Kentucky +5.5 W (Line went from +8 to +5.5 with 79% on Auburn)
Purdue +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 with 66% on Northwestern)
New Mexico +2.5 W (Barely) (Line went from +3.5 to +2.5 with 56% om New Mex St)
Tulsa +6.5 W (Line went from +6.5 to +6.5 even though 62% on SMU)
Western Kentucky +9 W (Line went from +9 to +9 even though 79% were on Fl Intl)

16-4 with 7 dogs winning outright.

Wow. That's sweet.

[GGPLAYER]

Sorry for those who tailed the KC game and lost. Was 9-9 up until the 4th quarter and I dunno wtf happene after that. RLM for me is now 7-5, not that great.


Sorry again.

That game was BS. NFL is fixed. KC could not finish a drive. J. Charles should have had 150 yars and 2td's on that team. Everyone can run on Indy! I still like the call and I would do it again.

[GGPLAYER]

RLM system overall this week including games I did not play.

16-4 with 7 dogs winning outright.

Diesel and Goaline...I would like to team up with you guys and compare notes as we head into next weekend.

NFL was 3-4 this weekend but that was after 3 weeks of 4-1 or 5-1 so could have just been a weird weekend. Would have been 4-2 if KC could have hit that FG at the end.

Interesting? I play the Kan St game and give up on RLM for college games and then it goes 16-3 on Sat?!?! Damn! Are these results common? Someone who really follows NCAA football and RLM please respond. Also if there is a thread on this please direct me to it.

[packbacker79]

Previous Weeks System Plays:

Rules:
#1 If less that 60% on one side there must be 1.5 pt+ RLM.
#2 Only exception to Rule #1 is if it crosses 3 or 7.
#3 Don't play a game if less than 5,000 bets have been placed on the game.

Utah State +4 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +4 with 61% on BYU)
UCONN -7 W (Line went from -7 to -7.5 with 55% on Vandy)
Michigan St +1.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +1.5 to +1.5 with 60% on Wisc)
Indiana +10 W (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Michigan)
Minnesota +4.5 W (Line went from +5.5 to +4.5 with 77% on Northwestern)
N. Carolina -14 W (Line went from -10.5 to -14 with 55% on East Carolina)
Iowa State +7 W (Outright win) (Line went from +9 to +7 with 86% on Texas Tech)
Idaho -3.5 W (Blow Out) (Line went from -2.5 to -3.5 with 54% on W. Mich)
Air Force -9.5 L (Lost by 2pts) (Line went from -9 to -9.5 with 65% on Navy)
Buffalo +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +3 with 73% on Bowling Green)
Boston Col +2.5 L (Blow Out) ( Line went from +2.5 to +2.5 with 69% on ND)
Illinois +16.5 W (Line went from +18 to +16.5 with 83% on Ohio St)
Arizona St +3.5 W (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 54% on Oregon St)
Virginia +6.5 L (Line went from +7 to +6.5 with 67% os FSU)
Washington +9.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10.5 to +9.5 with 66% on USC)
Clemson +3 L (Line went from +3.5 to +3 with 60% on Miami)
Stanford +6.5 L (Line went from +6.5 to +6.5 with 61% on Oregon)
La Tech +8 L (Line went from +10 to +8 with 84% on Hawaii)

12-6 with 5 outright underdog wins

NFL
Denver +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +6.5 with 61% on TENN)
Carolina +13.5 W (Line went from +14 to +13.5 with 63% on N.O.)
Cleveland +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +3 to +3 with 76% on Cincy)
Washington +5.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 with 60% on Philly)
NY Giants -3.5 W (Line went from -3 to -3.5 with 69% on Chicago)
Miami +1 L (This game got wacky) (Line went from +1 to +1 with 69% on the Pats)

5-1 with 3 outright dog wins.

[Dark Horse]

Previous Weeks System Plays:

Rules:
#1 If less that 60% on one side there must be 1.5 pt+ RLM.
#2 Only exception to Rule #1 is if it crosses 3 or 7.
#3 Don't play a game if less than 5,000 bets have been placed on the game.

Utah State +4 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +4 with 61% on BYU)
UCONN -7 W (Line went from -7 to -7.5 with 55% on Vandy)
Michigan St +1.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +1.5 to +1.5 with 60% on Wisc)
Indiana +10 W (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Michigan)
Minnesota +4.5 W (Line went from +5.5 to +4.5 with 77% on Northwestern)
N. Carolina -14 W (Line went from -10.5 to -14 with 55% on East Carolina)
Iowa State +7 W (Outright win) (Line went from +9 to +7 with 86% on Texas Tech)
Idaho -3.5 W (Blow Out) (Line went from -2.5 to -3.5 with 54% on W. Mich)
Air Force -9.5 L (Lost by 2pts) (Line went from -9 to -9.5 with 65% on Navy)
Buffalo +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +3 with 73% on Bowling Green)
Boston Col +2.5 L (Blow Out) ( Line went from +2.5 to +2.5 with 69% on ND)
Illinois +16.5 W (Line went from +18 to +16.5 with 83% on Ohio St)
Arizona St +3.5 W (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 54% on Oregon St)
Virginia +6.5 L (Line went from +7 to +6.5 with 67% os FSU)
Washington +9.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10.5 to +9.5 with 66% on USC)
Clemson +3 L (Line went from +3.5 to +3 with 60% on Miami)
Stanford +6.5 L (Line went from +6.5 to +6.5 with 61% on Oregon)
La Tech +8 L (Line went from +10 to +8 with 84% on Hawaii)

12-6 with 5 outright underdog wins

NFL
Denver +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +6.5 with 61% on TENN)
Carolina +13.5 W (Line went from +14 to +13.5 with 63% on N.O.)
Cleveland +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +3 to +3 with 76% on Cincy)
Washington +5.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +5.5 with 60% on Philly)
NY Giants -3.5 W (Line went from -3 to -3.5 with 69% on Chicago)
Miami +1 L (This game got wacky) (Line went from +1 to +1 with 69% on the Pats)

5-1 with 3 outright dog wins.

Nice. Which numbers are you using? SI?

[packbacker79]

Yeah I like the free version of SI.

Another thing I do as an extra measure after I have the plays that fit the system is take a look at how the other books compare to Pinnacle's line. Many times Pinny's line will be 1/2 pt better than other books to get line shoppers that are looking for that side to end up at Pinny. That side is the wrong side to be on. So if the team who is getting the majority of the public plays has a line at Pinnacle that is more attractive than the other books. It makes me feel even better about the reverse play. Pinny will usually either have a slightly better line or will have a little less juice than other books.

For example,

18,000 wagers so far

Team A getting 71% of public wagers
Team B getting 29% of public wagers

Team B fits the system due to public % and RLM.

You look at the lines and you have Team A favored by the following:

Pinnacle -2.5 -107
CRIS -3 -110
BetUS -3 -110
Bodog -3 -110
SIA -3 -110
Sportsbk -3 -110

Why does Pinnacle want me to take Team A at their book? Why would they want you to take Team A their unless A) They think Team A is the loser. or B) They have received a significant amount of money on Team B even though 71% of the public bets are on Team A so they need to have more on the Team A to even out the book.

So they are either stupid and are attracting ppl to take Team A at their book and they are going to get hit hard if Team A loses or there is smart money/bigger money/ more influential money on Team B.

I may be totally off base on this. I am by no means a guru. I have just been reading and tracking some of these lines and it seems that Pinny is an indicator as well.

[rb3b3]

packerbacker do you have your own thread with your picks?

[packbacker79]

I dont. I hope Im not upsetting anyone by commenting here. I just went to the first RLM thread I could find. I have only been testing this out for the last 3-4 weeks. Seems like when ppl start threads they get hit pretty hard when "their picks" lose.

[Totolover1409]

I don't think anyone would be upset. I think a lot of us would be happy to see some of these college RLMs for next weekend.

[skyline69]

Hey packerbacker, will you be posting the college plays in the ncaa forum this week??? TIA

[packbacker79]

I will post some early leans over the next day or two and then final on Saturday.

[rb3b3]

I will post some early leans over the next day or two and then final on Saturday.

where will you be posting them? in this thread? or will you make your own? im just asking because i want to follow it.

[TakeIt]

is there still some arbitrary number of bets necessary for these to be a play?

[dodger33]

I've done NCAA this year 63 or greater and 1.5 or greater movement only. The higher the percentage and the more the move the higher your bet should be. It has been prett good so far.

[Dark Horse]

Yeah I like the free version of SI.

Another thing I do as an extra measure after I have the plays that fit the system is take a look at how the other books compare to Pinnacle's line. Many times Pinny's line will be 1/2 pt better than other books to get line shoppers that are looking for that side to end up at Pinny. That side is the wrong side to be on. So if the team who is getting the majority of the public plays has a line at Pinnacle that is more attractive than the other books. It makes me feel even better about the reverse play. Pinny will usually either have a slightly better line or will have a little less juice than other books.

For example,

18,000 wagers so far

Team A getting 71% of public wagers
Team B getting 29% of public wagers

Team B fits the system due to public % and RLM.

You look at the lines and you have Team A favored by the following:

Pinnacle -2.5 -107
CRIS -3 -110
BetUS -3 -110
Bodog -3 -110
SIA -3 -110
Sportsbk -3 -110

Why does Pinnacle want me to take Team A at their book? Why would they want you to take Team A their unless A) They think Team A is the loser. or B) They have received a significant amount of money on Team B even though 71% of the public bets are on Team A so they need to have more on the Team A to even out the book.

So they are either stupid and are attracting ppl to take Team A at their book and they are going to get hit hard if Team A loses or there is smart money/bigger money/ more influential money on Team B.

I may be totally off base on this. I am by no means a guru. I have just been reading and tracking some of these lines and it seems that Pinny is an indicator as well.

You got it right. Pinnacle is a betting operation disguising as a book. Good RLM analysis.

[dvb02]

I will post some early leans over the next day or two and then final on Saturday.

Looking forward to them.

[DeluxeLiner]

I didnt play any NFL this week and this upcoming week isnt looking too great either. It is still early though.

[4TH AND STUPID]

packerbacker....

i love your analysis, and also the 'rules' you follow for reverse movement for example the 'key numbers' and the 60 % and the other things, which i all came to conclude after extensive research after hours and hours a few weeks ago...


however i have a couple questions


1) does 'crossing key numbers' include all of : 2.5 to 3, 3 to 2.5, 3 to 3.5, 3.5 to 3 , and same thing for 7 ? or does it mean that it has to START at 3 or 7 and move away from 3 or 7 ?

2) does it count if a line stays at a number? (ex cleveland browns win in ur list) ........ because you didn't mention that in the 'rules' but you stated cleveland browns in the NFL was a win when it stayed at 3 points with over 70% on the other side

3) did you list ALL the plays there (right and wrong) according to the same set of rules? or did you filter the plays based on which ones you used pinnacle as an indicator in?


thanks bro. i would love to put in the same effort in tracking just want to be consistent with everyone else.

[packbacker79]

Usually its when it moves so that it makes that play more attractive. i.e. the books want you there. So if it goes from -7 to -6.5 when the majority of the public is on the favorite that would be a play the books wants you to make. Another example would be if it goes from +7 to +7.5 when the dog is getting most the plays that would make the dog more attractive to the public which is what the books wants. It makes the dog more attactive because they could lose by a TD and still cover.

It does count if a line stays on 3 or 7 as well but usually for me to play one that just stays I am looking for 70% or higher on one side. If it stays on that key number that tells me a lot.

Not sure what you meant by number 3 but I use Pinnacle for my open and close lines. I will look at all lines to make sure Pinny is not out of whack and as I said if Pinny has a slightly better line on the side I am going against that tells me a lot.

[Romanov]

gonna go rlm this week and weekend. trying something new

[frpm00]

USF,Kentucky,Syracuse,Wisc,Hawaii,Washin gton,San Diego St, Ark St, Miss St.

These games look like they fit the RLM for this week.

[packbacker79]

The following are the games that I will be tracking this week. These will not all be plays but this list is where I will pull from.

Marshall
Kansas
South Florida
Louisville
Syracuse
Clemson
Illinois
East Carolina
Kentucky
Miss State
Colorado
Virginia
Texas
Michigan
UAB
Texas Tech
Memphis
Wiscy
Auburn
San Diego St
Fresno St
Hawaii
Arkansas State