NFL week 1 trends to consider

Carseller4 · 09-01-10, 11:02 PM

Thanks for the info. Looking forward to the season!

rake922 · 09-01-10, 11:04 PM

thanks dude... will come back to this

mtneer1212 · 09-01-10, 11:05 PM

Nice find and good info....... thank you!

NBAwinner · 09-01-10, 11:09 PM

very good info thanks bro

dollarbill · 09-01-10, 11:11 PM

Very good info, as the season moves on look for a team with 3 road or home games consecutive weeks. Have not looked yet but these games are a high % as well........... More later

WeinketoWarrick · 09-01-10, 11:11 PM

good finds, thanks.

Bogart45 · 09-02-10, 12:36 AM

nice stuff. I like the 1st two especially.

tim0402 · 09-02-10, 01:14 AM

love this stuff

GunShard · 09-02-10, 06:55 AM

Colts and Ravens ATS looks good.

geebert74 · 09-02-10, 07:15 AM

I do like Denver over Jacksonville...

taxman · 09-02-10, 08:07 AM

I really liked the Ravens vs the Jets and locked in +3 laying -125...now the line is down to 2 in some books.

Wrecktangle · 09-02-10, 08:33 AM

mark this thread

EastsidaProduct · 09-02-10, 08:45 AM

Very informative, well done.
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dise-pa · 09-02-10, 08:48 AM

good stuff with more to come!!!!!!!!!!!!thats what I like

makemerich · 09-02-10, 09:37 AM

miami is the game, parlay imma hit it!!!

taxman · 09-02-10, 08:06 PM

Got a couple more trends to consider for week bettors

NO-Minn-The defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the follow up season the past 6 years.The host is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS...the last 3 games have gone UNDER the total

-Home favorites of less than a field goal in week 1 are 10-4 SU and ATS (71%) since 2001 (Clev)

taxman · 09-02-10, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by dise-pa

good stuff with more to come!!!!!!!!!!!!thats what I like

Hey dise-pa I'm here for ya...wanna get some of these trends out there to handicap.

smarmy · 09-02-10, 09:36 PM

looks like some good information to have around come wager making time. thanks and gl.

gwiz · 09-02-10, 10:37 PM

good post

Winnipeg Jets · 09-02-10, 11:07 PM

houston covers against archie.

Brock Landers · 09-02-10, 11:10 PM

i don't bet on trends.

I need to see a team play or be very familiar with them myself, trends are set by players no longer 1)alive or 2)on the team

PlatinumBerg · 09-02-10, 11:48 PM

Good info, so take the Lions ATS and the Bears ML?

plzkthx · 09-03-10, 02:05 AM

hmmm great info. will consider

deviantONE · 09-03-10, 02:50 AM

Great info! Thanks for sharing!

kmarinouofm · 09-03-10, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

i don't bet on trends.

I need to see a team play or be very familiar with them myself, trends are set by players no longer 1)alive or 2)on the team

that has always been problem with them.. with that being said i love miami week 1

slacker00 · 09-03-10, 06:52 AM

Very weak trends backed with meaningless data. Toss this thread in the garbage except as novelty (joke) value. We might as well data mine some stats about coaches who have facial hair versus coaches who are cleanly shaven. I bet I could mine some data about coaches moustaches or beards with similar statistical significance as these trends presented.

This happens every year. Maybe I'm getting to be the forum grouch, but some noob comes in with some garbage data and thinks they are doing something but they'll be broke by week 3. Open some math books or just Wiki 'statistical significance'. We've got enough garbage threads between the fanboy drum beating and the adventures of JJGOLD's homoerotic prostitution. Garbage math is a broken crutch for people who can't asses an injury report or break down team matchups. Let's clean it up in here, eh?

taxman · 09-03-10, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

Very weak trends backed with meaningless data. Toss this thread in the garbage except as novelty (joke) value. We might as well data mine some stats about coaches who have facial hair versus coaches who are cleanly shaven. I bet I could mine some data about coaches moustaches or beards with similar statistical significance as these trends presented.

This happens every year. Maybe I'm getting to be the forum grouch, but some noob comes in with some garbage data and thinks they are doing something but they'll be broke by week 3. Open some math books or just Wiki 'statistical significance'. We've got enough garbage threads between the fanboy drum beating and the adventures of JJGOLD's homoerotic prostitution. Garbage math is a broken crutch for people who can't asses an injury report or break down team matchups. Let's clean it up in here, eh?

You don't like trends..here's a quick solution for you Slacker...close the thread and move on dude...alot of handicappers use certain trends as a means of finding a game to wager...so take your tantrum on another thread

3PtShooter · 09-03-10, 08:31 AM

trends make the world go round

TheCommish · 09-03-10, 09:26 AM

Trends are great, but when looking at 20 games or less... there really are meaningless.

officepoolguy · 09-03-10, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by taxman

Well kickoff is almost here and I've got some interesting trends for week 1:

-All divisonal favorites of 3 points or less boast a 15-3 SU record and an amazing 14-3-1 ATS since 2000

(Miami, Indy, SF)

-Road underdogs of 3 1/2 points or more in divisional games in NFL's opening week are 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000

(Det)

-When two winning teams from the prior year played in week 1 UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since 2003 (NE-Cinc)

Denv-Jack-Jacksonville is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons

Oakl-Tenn-Oakland has covered 5 of the last 6 vs Tenn and is 12-6 ATS on the roadvs confrence foes since 2006

Balt-Jets-Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in Sept games the last two seasons

Cinc-NE-Cinc was 0-8 ATS as favorites last year but 7-2 ATS as underdogs

Indy-Texans- Indy was 7-1 ATS on the road last year

SF-Seat- SF was 6-0 UNDER the total vs divisonal opponents last year

Good luck to everyone on a profitable 2010 NFL season!

Excellent job...I use league trends but try to stay away from team trends as teams change every year. I also only focus on league trends that hit at a clip of at least 70% so I love the divisional favorite trend you posted.

Good luck on the season.

statnerds · 09-03-10, 09:33 AM

trend bettors = broke bettors

taxman · 09-03-10, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by officepoolguy

Excellent job...I use league trends but try to stay away from team trends as teams change every year. I also only focus on league trends that hit at a clip of at least 70% so I love the divisional favorite trend you posted.

Good luck on the season.

I totally agree with you OPG.I use trends as one of many tools to try and find some good betting plays.If you have any league trends would be great to see them.Thanks!

slacker00 · 09-03-10, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by taxman

You don't like trends..here's a quick solution for you Slacker...close the thread and move on dude...alot of handicappers use certain trends as a means of finding a game to wager...so take your tantrum on another thread

Trends are fine, but back them with statistical significance. Read Sharp Sports Betting by Wong. It's a great primer on NFL handicapping, dealing with correct statistical inference. You don't seem to know a good trend from a bad one. I'm just trying to help you out and the rest of the monkeys that seem to agree with you. The ones you put up are good examples of bad trends. If you're broke by week 3, then fine, but don't say I didn't warn ya.

As for your butthurt crying, you don't have to read my posts either. It goes both ways. It's a cop out to direct traffic away from your bad ideas, you sound like a bad used car salesman who is being called out for what he is.

taxman · 09-03-10, 08:21 PM

How did u know? Then if what I posted are all BAD trends please enlighten me with what you think are good trends.I do in fact own the book you are speaking of by Stanford Wong...great read!