Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**hitman2010** · 10-09-10, 09:11 AM

Sat morning, no plays yet Kroy? Be back in the evening.

**kroyrunner89** · 10-09-10, 02:51 PM

We got back on the winning side of things last week as we still went 2-1 ATS with the Steelers blowing their late lead, and this week we're looking to complete the job and get back over .500 for the season. While the first four weeks have certainly been disappointing overall, I have nobody to blame but myself as I've tried to be a little "too sharp" with my picks and thus subjected us to unnecessary risk (also part of the reason it seems we've been taking more bad beats than last year). The good news is that I'm aware of this now and that as of this week I have my totals system ready to begin helping us. My NFL system has been very good over the past two years, and I'm also attempting to bring a second system into the mix this year that I developed over the summer and have high hopes for. Hopefully this will be enough to turn things around, and we should be back above 60% before we know it! Please excuse the briefer than normal writeups this week, I'm out of town and don't have a lot of time to work with. But I do still see a ton of value this week and thus have a bigger card than usual, here are the picks I'm liking:

Bears/Panthers UNDER 33 (-104 @ Pinnacle)

I told myself coming into this week that I wasn't going to pick particularly high or low totals anymore unless it was a special circumstance. Of course, this week we see one of these special circumstances fall right on our lap. No Steve Smith for the Panthers immediately takes one of their best offensive weapons out of the mix, which means that the Bears don't have to commit an extra man to him on a double team and can now focus on stacking the box and stopping the run. While I'm not convinced they're the elite run defense we think they are, they'll definitely be able to do enough to slow down the Carolina rushing game which quite frankly hasn't been anything special so far this year. For the Bears, no Jay Cutler pretty much eliminates the quick scoring threat immediately. Collins doesn't have the arm to heave the ball downfield, and we'll probably see a lot more dump off passes to Forte or short routes in what will certainly be a very conservative offensive plan. Chicago is 5th worst in yards per rush attempt, Carolina is 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, there won't be much of a ground game for the Bears and this will be a very low scoring game.

Bills/Jaguars OVER 40.5 (-108 @ Pinnacle)

This game features two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Bills return a couple defenders to the lineup, but Terrence McGee still won't be on the field which will allow the Jaguars to get everything they want and more through the air in this one. Buffalo hasn't been great throwing the ball, but ever since Fitzpatrick came into the lineup for the Bills they've shown a little more explosiveness. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed, so Buffalo should be able to keep up enough on the scoreboard to have a real shot at winning in the end, pushing the total over in the process.

Bengals/Bucs UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle)

Before we get too excited about Carson Palmer's improvement last week, let's remember that 78 yards and a touchdown of that were pretty flukey as the defender covering Owens fell down. That would leave the Bengals with 335 total yards of offense and 13 points, the same Bengals I've always known. This week they face a Tampa Bay defense that is better against the pass than the Browns, and while the Bucs struggle more against the run we could likely see a lot more action on the ground as the Bengals try to establish Cedric Benson's presence in the game. Throw in the Bucs having two weeks to prepare for this game and I think the Bengals' offense is reasonably limited once again. For the Bucs, they're up against another tough defense as Cinci is 7th best in yards per pass attempt allowed. Tampa has struggled running the ball, and likely won't be able to get much going against the Bengals in that phase of the game either. Look for this one to stay low scoring as both offenses have trouble getting things going.

San Diego Chargers -6 (-110 @ Pinnacle)
Chargers/Raiders UNDER 45 (-109 @ Pinnacle)

I hate picking heavy public favorites like the Chargers as I always feel like I'm walking into a trap, but there's too much to like about their situation this week to stay away. For starters, the Chargers boast the #2 passing defense and #11 rushing defense, by far they'll be the toughest defense Oakland has faced yet. Gradkowski and the Raiders haven't done great through the air, as they're 6th worst in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Their passing game will be very limited in this game, and they're going to have to hope that they can run the ball effectively to have any chance of offense. The Chargers' biggest problem so far has been killing themselves with mistakes and turnovers, something that would certainly bode well for our under should they do that here. Their other issue has been vulnerability in the return game, but Oakland has been nothing special in this phase of the game and shouldn't be able to take advantage of that weakness. Oakland won't score many points in this one, I'd be shocked if they topped 17. That means we need 23 points at most out of the Chargers for them to cover, which should be well within their reach as they are #1 in yards per pass attempt, #10 in yards per rush attempt, and face the worst run defense in the NFL. If the Chargers fail to cover it's because they made too many mistakes and didn't score enough, if the total goes over it's because they blew the Raiders out. We're looking at a 1-1 split at worst, but I think we have a great chance at 2-0 and will gladly risk eating some juice for that opportunity.

Eagles/49ers UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle)

We all remember the 49ers Monday night game against the Saints a couple weeks ago and how good they looked. Of course, we all expect to see that again now as they're in a must win game at home against the depleted Eagles offense. Well, I'm on board, at least for their level of play on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles have a very suspect offensive line, and without Vick their offense lacks the explosiveness it once had. The 49ers limited Brees and the Saints a couple weeks ago, and I fully expect them to do the same to the Eagles here in this game. On the offensive side of the ball however, they're facing an Eagles defense that is much better than the Saints defense they faced a few weeks ago. We see now the Saints are 9th worst in the NFL against the pass and 9th worst against the run, while the Eagles still do struggle to stop the run (12th worst in the NFL), they excel against the pass as they're 4th best in the league. Alex Smith has been terrible so far this season, and will continue to struggle against an aggressive Eagles defense that will force him into a couple mistakes and very much limit their offense. While it's very easy to see either team covering in this game, it's going to wind up being a defensive struggle, giving us an easy under.

I may be back with a Monday night pick, I'm going to wait and get official status on Revis and Pace first. But that's all for Sunday, good luck everyone!

**n1co35** · 10-09-10, 03:15 PM

BOL this week kroy.

with u on bills/jags over and under for sd/oak.

**lb49ers** · 10-09-10, 03:18 PM

Good luck Kroy!

**Soderman** · 10-09-10, 03:40 PM

Bol!

**hitman2010** · 10-09-10, 05:45 PM

Gluck kroy.

**A's Fan** · 10-09-10, 06:03 PM

bengals/bucs under 38 looks solid.

**wquine** · 10-09-10, 07:23 PM

good selection here kroy, I don't like SD though, they forget themselves on the road.

**Bogart45** · 10-09-10, 08:14 PM

SD is a scary pick. Only because of last year though. Oak covered both times last year but...

SD are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Oakland.
SD are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

They do have a nice history of beating Oak by 10 points or more. Let's hope SD can ge back on track this year with whipping Oak.

**EXhoosier10** · 10-09-10, 08:50 PM

good luck this weekend kroy

**jimmyg2727** · 10-09-10, 10:56 PM

goodluck kroy !!

**simonk83** · 10-09-10, 11:17 PM

BOL everyone!

**phillybadboy** · 10-09-10, 11:24 PM

i think that bucs bengals game will go OVER 38 gl

**jimbojpc** · 10-10-10, 01:07 AM

Bol on Sunday

**stuiees** · 10-10-10, 01:27 AM

GL to anyone who tails

**simonk83** · 10-10-10, 01:38 AM

I reckon we're in for a good week this time

**peeteer** · 10-10-10, 03:46 AM

Good Luck, kroy.

**Cris_from_Europe** · 10-10-10, 04:28 AM

Like the plays .... BOL

**pokerwhiz90** · 10-10-10, 05:57 AM

love the play on the bears under

**jedikarl** · 10-10-10, 05:58 AM

bol kroy i reckon we r going to have another profitable week and bounce back into profit for the season

**gamemastere** · 10-10-10, 06:18 AM

tailing on several of these GL

**frankzig** · 10-10-10, 06:41 AM

some/most seem sokid leary on sd away

**wquine** · 10-10-10, 08:15 AM

well they didn't have far to travel and it is a must win game, maybe a decent ML game?

**clbonham2** · 10-10-10, 08:21 AM

car /chi might go over even though they both have crap teams this week.

**Duby** · 10-10-10, 08:28 AM

GL today...I like your card!

**Foals** · 10-10-10, 08:39 AM

Tailing you on the totals kroy but I'm against you on the Chargers bet. GL!

**GoCougs!** · 10-10-10, 09:53 AM

love it. i haven"t played this many totals in a while......may limit plays.

**jhack704** · 10-10-10, 12:25 PM

well we already 0-1 chi and car will hit the over any minute now ha

**jhack704** · 10-10-10, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by jhack704

well we already 0-1 chi and car will hit the over any minute now ha

well almost 3 hrs later and only 6 points, well the way carolina turns it over they want the over to hit

**Cris_from_Europe** · 10-10-10, 03:04 PM

I'm also on the Chargers today ... BOL

**jhack704** · 10-10-10, 03:09 PM

and now chi kicks it out of bounce, good jack buf over win kroy

**belvedere86** · 10-10-10, 03:09 PM

im predicting tampa will **** us again.

**belvedere86** · 10-10-10, 03:11 PM

hahah ******* told up. pfffffffff

**belvedere86** · 10-10-10, 03:11 PM

now maybe the bears game to? lets hope not

**simonk83** · 10-10-10, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by belvedere86

hahah ******* told up. pfffffffff

Damn