Basic question: On O/U player props, do you find your win rate to be higher on:
1) Overs?
OR
2) Unders?
There's a basic point to my question. Normally, one looks at a player's recent average and adjusts for opponent to generate a Projection.
That's a good start. What about the Probability of injury?
Guys like Deebo/McCaff/Fields got injured mid-game. NFL is a brutal sport. Probability (injury in a given game) has to be 3 to 5%.
If you play an Over...and your player gets knocked out, that Over is likely a loser. Anyway, does a good NFL prop player have personal O/U results they'd like to share?
If I was going to play these, I'd look at a guy who is performing well. His O/U gets pumped up a bit. If he has any track record of injury, I'd take a long look at the Under.
Defense might defend him well. And the chance at an Injury is a free-roll.