[Hman]

Best Week 1 NFL Eliminator picks

Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.

Week 1 is one of the trickier weeks to pick. Last year at this time, very few people had the Rams and Jaguars as two of the best teams in the NFL. However, favorites win outright 66.5 percent of the time in Week 1, just 0.5 percent less often than the season average, so in general, Week 1 is pretty average in terms of volatility. That means that there is no reason to play Week 1 any differently than any other week.

Top Picks

New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)Line: Saints -9.5
Saints' FPI chance to win: 82 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 28 percent selected



The Saints are a team to use early in Eliminator. They are the biggest FPI favorite both this week and next week against the Browns, and looking at the Saints' schedule, these are clearly the two best weeks to use them. New Orleans is actually the third-biggest FPI favorite in any game this season against the Bucs in Week 1. Tampa Bay is projected to have the worst defense in football by FPI, while the Saints are projected to have the best offense in football. Plus, Tampa Bay is playing backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Saints will be the most popular pick this week, but it is justified.


Baltimore Ravens (vs. Buffalo Bills)Line: Ravens -7.5
Ravens' FPI chance to win: 75 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 12 percent selectedWhile the Bills were a playoff team last season, they are 200-1 to win the Super Bowl this season, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, tied with Tampa Bay for the longest odds. Buffalo is going to be a team to play against on the road all season in Eliminator. The Ravens are a top-10 team in the NFL, according to FPI, and John Harbaugh is 32-5 in his career as a favorite of at least seven points. The Ravens do have five other home games in which FPI makes them at least a 68 percent favorite (Browns, Broncos, Bengals, Buccaneers, Raiders), so you don't need to burn them this week, but they are a strong bet at home against a Bills team that looks like one of the worst in the NFL. Plus, the Ravens aren't quite as chalky of a pick as New Orleans and Green Bay.

Others to consider

Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago Bears)Line: Packers -7.5
Packers' FPI chance to win: 75 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 17 percent selectedThe Bears are a tricky team to predict this season because they've had a ton of changes this offseason. They hired Matt Nagy as head coach, they overhauled their offense and they traded for Khalil Mack just eight days before the start of the season. However, the Packers are 8-2 against the Bears in the Aaron Rodgers era, and they are the third-biggest FPI favorite of the week. Don't be scared of this being a divisional game, either. During the past 10 seasons, teams favored by seven or more points win 3 percent more often against divisional opponents than against non-divisional opponents. Green Bay is the third option this week because Chicago has a wider range of outcomes than most teams projected to be in the bottom half of the NFL, but the Packers are still a strong choice.


Detroit Lions (vs. New York Jets)Line: Lions -6.5
Lions' FPI chance to win: 72 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 8 percent selectedFPI projects the Jets to be the worst team in the NFL this season, so it makes sense to fade them on the road. This is also by far the best chance to use the Lions this season. Right now, the only other game the Lions are favored by more than three points, according to FPI, is Week 12 at home against the Bears. The Lions were shaky in the preseason under new coach Matt Patricia, so they are a lot riskier than the Saints, Ravens and Packers, but if you can get by with the Lions this week, that allows you to use New Orleans next week and save Baltimore and Green Bay for later in the season. I prefer the safer options, but the Lions are only 8 percent selected this week, so they provide good leverage against the field if the chalkier favorites lose.

Top Fade

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)Line: Steelers -5
Steelers' FPI chance to win: 65 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 14 percent selectedFading the Browns recently in Eliminator Challenge has been one of the most successful strategies, since they are 1-31 the last two seasons. And FPI views the Steelers are the third-best team in the NFL, so on paper this sounds like a good pick. But Pittsburgh historically is a team to take at home and fade on the road. The Steelers are just 8-5 outright in their last 13 games as a road favorite of at least six points. And Ben Roethlisberger's home-road splits are staggering. During the past five seasons, Roethlisberger has an 89-to-31 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared with 49-to-35 on the road. The Steelers are the second-most-popular pick this week, but you will have plenty of other chances to use them, including in Week 8 when they get to host this Browns team.

[Madison]

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