[The J-Dizzle]

Chicago Bears over 294 for the regular season at 2.50 (+150). This is my biggest future bet for the upcoming season. I really like this bet because of a number of factors.

1. Change of coach. This is the biggest factor for improving this offense and thankfully for the Bears they don't need to see one more season of ultra-conservative coaching by John Fox and Dowell Loggains. With these coaches Bears offense was very run heavy on first downs (in order to protect Trubisky?) which was very inefficient and they didn't set up Trubisky to succeed. This offense was very inefficient overall when talking about play selections and formations. With Matt Nagy as new head coach the Bears offense will employ more shotgun formations and RPOs. This will not only help Trubisky getting in more favourable situations but also increase Jordan Howard's efficiency. Howard increased from 4.0 YPC under center to 6.4 YPC in shotgun formation last year.
Nagy will make sure that Trubisky will be playing in the most efficient formations, this includes more 12 personnel, which we can see coming true with the signing of Trey Burton. I have no doubt that Nagy will make sure to use his many explosive weapons (Cohen, Gabriel) in many creative ways as new head coaches wants to showcase their masterminds.

Just by changing the coaches, the Bears are in for a major offensive improvement.

2. Better personnel. The Bears has improved in every skill position, with a new recieving core. This also includes the sophomore jump by QB Trubisky.

3. Easier schedule. Bears faced the fifth hardest run defense schedule and will now face a far more easier run defense schedule. The offense as a whole will also face much easier defenses when it comes to total efficiency, going from the #1 hardest defensive schedule when it comes to efficiency to the #14 hardest.

4. Positional spending. Chiacgo has spend a ton of money on the WR and TE groups, ranking #3 in the league in both groups. It's clear to what they want to improve this season. The passing offense is a major part of today's offense, and this will increase their scoring.

5. New rules. A small factor, but still, the new kickoff rule and the new lowering the helmet rule will at the very least not decrease the scoring in the league.

6. Public conception. The Bears are seen together with the Browns with having the worst offense in 2018, both having the highest odds of ending with the league's best offense. The Bears is underrated, and that's a big part in every future over bet, especially this one. Actually, the Bears only need to field a mediocre offense for this bet to hit, a measly 18.4 points per game!

[keely85]

New helmet rules might help a lot of teams score more points. Even if in the form of field goals. I’m guessing every 2-3 games one of the flags will result in a scoring drive that may not have been.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

looks pretty good but I don't like tying my money up for months..gl

[The J-Dizzle]

New helmet rules might help a lot of teams score more points. Even if in the form of field goals. I’m guessing every 2-3 games one of the flags will result in a scoring drive that may not have been.

Exactly my thinking. One penalty alone can help you into FG range or turn it into a TD drive. Even if this happens only once all year, it's a new rule that will help.

[The J-Dizzle]

looks pretty good but I don't like tying my money up for months..gl

I'm getting at least a much higher possible return than all those team total O/U bets. I allocate a certain % of my money on future bets that I really like. Thank you very much JP

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm getting at least a much higher possible return than all those team total O/U bets. I allocate a certain % of my money on future bets that I really like. Thank you very much JP

I like the looks of their offensive scheme and they have some playmakers...the Bears will be an interesting team to keep track of for sure..BOL

[Professor1215]

I think this is a great bet, as you said, you'll only need an 18.44 points per game average to win.

My takeaways from what i've seen so far this year...(and I am NOT a Bears "fan")

1. Nagy - Indeed, a new coach with an offensive mindset that is poised to make Chicago a winning team again. He has them eating out of his hand already and I think his impact will be felt immediately.

2. The Offense - Trubisky WILL have positive regression this year. The 1-2 punch of Howard and Cohen at running back will give them different ways to attach opposing defenses running the ball. Adding Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton to me are the enablers of Trubisky's impending improvement. And although they do see some tough defenses within their division and some possible inclement weather games, I still think a "bad' game for them is 10-13 points. I just see more 30+ point games than I do under 10 point games. At the end of the day it will be hard to game plan against this offense.

3. The Defense - I envision a better defense, one who will create more points on that side of the ball, and can create better field position for the offense.

4. SOS - Perfectly stated on the point above on this topic.

5. Public Perception - I too believe the public is down on Chicago. I get the sense this line is a "prove it" kind of a thing.

6. Rule changes - And I don't think the new rule is factored into the number. I feel very strongly that this will cause more points to scored in every game.

As you can see, I am with you on this bet, with a lot of the same sentiments. Good luck to you sir!

[The J-Dizzle]

Let's go Professor!

[jt315]

Warren Sharp one of the brightest analytical minds out there is all over the improvement in their offense this year . They are tied with the Browns at 294 pts. scored for lowest in the league at my book . Like this one myself and played it at +140 .


Efficiency Explosion Headed for the Windy City




http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com...the-windy-city

[The J-Dizzle]

That's awesome JT! Great that we can follow this together!
Yes it's the same at my book.

This will be a very competitive team with their top 10 defense.

[jt315]

That's awesome JT! Great that we can follow this together!
Yes it's the same at my book.

This will be a very competitive team with their top 10 defense.

Already have their first two home games circled as play ons vs. Seattle and Tampa .


Another good piece of info from Sharp .

Chicago Bears

Like the Panthers, the Bears’ offense might be able to capitalize on its early (Week 5) bye. Chicago has the NFL’s second-softest schedule through Week 10. They play five bottom-five teams during that span, although they are favored in just three of those games because the Bears are also viewed as a bottom-five team. Note that Chicago plays the NFL’s fourth-softest schedule of opposing defenses, including the fifth-easiest schedule of pass defenses after heavily upgrading their passing game in the offseason.

All systems go .

[The J-Dizzle]

Already have their first two home games circled as play ons vs. Seattle and Tampa .


Another good piece of info from Sharp .

Chicago Bears

Like the Panthers, the Bears’ offense might be able to capitalize on its early (Week 5) bye. Chicago has the NFL’s second-softest schedule through Week 10. They play five bottom-five teams during that span, although they are favored in just three of those games because the Bears are also viewed as a bottom-five team. Note that Chicago plays the NFL’s fourth-softest schedule of opposing defenses, including the fifth-easiest schedule of pass defenses after heavily upgrading their passing game in the offseason.

All systems go .

Fire up the cannons! 🍻

[The J-Dizzle]

After a quarter of the season..

Bears 111 points, averaging almost 28 points per game!

[The J-Dizzle]

My BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR cashes in with 5 weeks to go!!

[jt315]

A true boat race JD . They should all be that easy .

[The J-Dizzle]

A true boat race JD . They should all be that easy .

You're right about that JT!


421 total points scored for Chicago Bears