[a4u2fear]

Lots of picks, Hate them if you want. After performing my regressions, these bets must be made:

CLE O5.5 -155
HOU O8.5 -150
IND O6.5 -165
KC O8.5 -115
SF O8.5 -105
SEA O8 -105

ARZ U5.5 +115
ATL U9 +110
CAR U9 -130
CIN U6.5 EV
DAL U8.5 -110
DEN U7 -115
GB U10 -140
JAX U9 -115
LAR U9.5 +120
MIA U6.5 EV
MIN U10 -110
NE U11 +105
OAK U8.5 -125
PHI U10.5 -110
PIT U10.5 -130
TEN U8 -125
WAS U7 -130

[a4u2fear]

Adding
season win totals of team vs team
ie if Houston has 8 wins and Atlanta 8 wins, bet below is a winner

three units each
Hou +1 vs Atl -120
KC +2 vs GB -120
LAC +1 vs LAR -120
NYG -1.5 vs Buf -120
CLE +0.5 vs Arz -120

one unit each
Hou -0.5 vs Dal
SF -1 vs Oak
Ind +1 vs Det
Sea +2 vs LAC

[danshan11]

thanks for the picks but out of 32 teams you think the line is wrong on 23 of them? What do you think the line setters did wrong this year? Why do you think this is happening, any insight?

[Yankfan4life2]

Seattle and KC will go under. Aside from that, your picks are pretty solid. BOL.

[a4u2fear]

My book also just posted div vs div season wins.

My ratings have the AFC East as the worst division and by quite a bit (total wins)

Placing two wagers
AFC East wins vs AFC North wins -1
AFC East wins vs AFC South wins -2

total wins by each team in division

[a4u2fear]

CLE O5.5 -155
HOU O8.5 -150
IND O6.5 -165
KC O8.5 -115
SF O8.5 -105
SEA O8 -105

ARZ U5.5 +115
ATL U9 +110
CAR U9 -130
CIN U6.5 EV
DAL U8.5 -110
DEN U7 -115
GB U10 -140
JAX U9 -115
LAR U9.5 +120
MIA U6.5 EV
MIN U10 -110
NE U11 +105 PUSH
OAK U8.5 -125
PHI U10.5 -110
PIT U10.5 -130
TEN U8 -125
WAS U7 -130 PUSH
Hou +1 vs Atl -120
KC +2 vs GB -120
LAC +1 vs LAR -120 PUSH
NYG -1.5 vs Buf -120
CLE +0.5 vs Arz -120

Hou -0.5 vs Dal
SF -1 vs Oak
Ind +1 vs Det
Sea +2 vs LAC PUSH
AFC East wins vs AFC North wins -1
AFC East wins vs AFC South wins -2

[a4u2fear]

I did not post units for each bet, but if non-posted units were standard at 1 unit, this was a resounding success.

23-7-4 for +18.25 units.

[philliesfinest]

great job was unbelievable bet the winnings on longshots

[Yazworm91]

Hell Yea. Nice work.

[Yazworm91]

thanks for the picks but out of 32 teams you think the line is wrong on 23 of them? What do you think the line setters did wrong this year? Why do you think this is happening, any insight?

So I was reading awhile back most of these odds makers know they are generally going to get more action on overs but if you added up all the team totals they actually came out like 6-8 games more than actual games played. Starting to see those .5 wins are worth gold in some instances. I personally had Eagles and Jags under totals. Gave some of it back on the Giants o6.5 though ����*♂️.

[a4u2fear]

taking a look at this year's over unders......

what's interesting for week to week games is the additional challenges this year including pass interference challenges.

I looked at week 1 avg totals per game
2018 44.5
2017 44.5
2016 45

I see 2019 so far, 46.5, these challenges are really going to add additional points per game, it will, quite often, give a new set of downs or move the chains many many yards down the field or put teams on the 1 instead of going for field goals or punting.

[BigdaddyQH]

I do not think that the challenges will make that much difference in the games. The fact that scoring is up overall has more to do with it than challenges. I think that the Unders will cover more games than the Overs because of the inflated Total lines. especially in the 2nd half of the season (week 9 on).

[The J-Dizzle]

Bears under 9.5 are my absolute favorite this year.

[BigdaddyQH]

Name their 7 losses.

[a4u2fear]

My site hasn't posted a few categories yet I use to analyze the totals, but it does appear that the system is leaning Bears under.

[BigdaddyQH]

Leaning is not good enough for me. If you can not post enough wins or losses that will cover either an over or an under total, then the wager is not a good one. Example: Carolina Under 8 -120. Losses: LA Rams, @ Houston, @ Green Bay, @ Indianapolis, Seattle, and 4 conference losses = 9 losses. Play under 8 wins.

[a4u2fear]

Leaning is not good enough for me. If you can not post enough wins or losses that will cover either an over or an under total, then the wager is not a good one. Example: Carolina Under 8 -120. Losses: LA Rams, @ Houston, @ Green Bay, @ Indianapolis, Seattle, and 4 conference losses = 9 losses. Play under 8 wins.

I used the word leaning because I haven’t made definite picks yet. Carolina will be an over.

You sound like a bears fan if you are, but of course if everything was as easy as look at how good or bad last years teams were and “find me the losses” were all you needed to do, we would alll be millionaires

[The J-Dizzle]

Winning 10 games in the NFL is very hard.

Bears have all the signs for a regression. First, their defense played lights out, with lots of turnovers. Playing defense at that kind of level is very hard to sustain and it's bound to regress. Especially when you lose two vital starters, and two coverage players to that.
For the second part, we have Mitchell Trubisky. He was one of the worst in the league when it comes to turnover-worthy plays, and his accuracy is bad even when given a clean pocket. He made most of his thunder on scripted plays and then leaned on the defense. He brings value with his legs though, but the game scripts might not be as pleasant the upcoming season.
I believed very much in the Bears entering last season as I went hard on the Bears over 294 points, Bears as division winners, Nagy as COTY and also Bears+9 in the opener. But this is regression time for them, even if the defense is a top 5 defense it could still not be enough. And the public is high on them after last season.

Just look at the Jaguars the year after winning 10 games. Were you saying "show me the 11 losses" for the Jaguars before last season? Jaguars still had a very good defense, but not at that elite level the year before.
Bears also have the worst QB in that division. They won in spite of Trubisky, who produced as much as he did because of Matt Nagy. Trubisky needs to take a step forward though because he had so much going for him in 2018:
He had the least amount of drops of all starting QBs, he had a clean pocket on over 70% of his dropbacks, and his many turnover-worthy plays weren't converted into interceptions. Trubisky's stats beg for regression, and it won't help when you perhaps don't have the very best defense in the NFL anymore to lean on.

After winning 12 games, the bookies won't set a low number on a team.

[skoalclasic]

agreed j dizzle, your write up was bang on.

and for BigPhony, those losses you have chosen for the panthers are horrible. rams? hawks? packers? over achieving colts? all very beatable teams.

my favourite total wins/losses so far is the Tennessee Titans under 8. In my opinion its a very tough push if anything..

[a4u2fear]

The JDizzle, I have been waiting for team total points to be posted, have you seen these anywhere yet?

[The J-Dizzle]

I haven't seen them yet. Guess we'll have to wait a few more weeks.