NFL Week 15-Superbowl Plays

[Dexter]

using this one thread for the rest of the season since the number of contributors seems to be dwindling each week. back later with the week 15 plays.

[Dexter]

(2x) colts -3.5 - indy has won their last 2 games in jax by an avg of 15ppg. 27-17 Colts
(2x) over saints 53 - dont overthink this one. expect romo to keep pace with his full arsenal of weapons healthy. NO 30-27
(3x) steelers -1 - 2 teams going in opposite directions. perfect value play. 24-14 PITT
(3x) titans - will continue to ride the titans till season end. 31-10 Tenn
(2x) bills +7 - Autobet (details to be posted later). 17-13 NE
(3x) ravens -10 - the bears are a mess right now having dropped 6 straight ats. this could get ugly for cutler. 40-14 Balt
(5x) chiefs -1 - 2 Autobets fit (details to be posted later) 19-13 KC
(2x) under kc 36.5 - 2 ugly offenses line up outside in likely poor weather. this total has extreme value at 36.5.
(2x) panthers +7 -Autobet (details to be posted later). 27-23 Minny
(2x) giants -3 - ny needs to bounce back in wash where they have won and covered 3 straight by 10ppg. 27-20 NY

[Jshap1515]

Liking the bets this week. As for the Steelers, the only reason I like that is because of the long week for Pitt.

[Dexter]

(2x) colts -3.5 - indy has won their last 2 games in jax by an avg of 15ppg. 27-17 Colts
(2x) over saints 53 - dont overthink this one. expect romo to keep pace with his full arsenal of weapons healthy. NO 30-27
(3x) steelers -1 - 2 teams going in opposite directions. perfect value play. 24-14 PITT
(3x) titans - will continue to ride the titans till season end. 31-10 Tenn
(2x) bills +7 - Autobet (details to be posted later). 17-13 NE
(3x) ravens -10 - the bears are a mess right now having dropped 6 straight ats. this could get ugly for cutler. 40-14 Balt
(5x) chiefs -1 - 2 Autobets fit (details to be posted later) 19-13 KC
(2x) under kc 36.5 - 2 ugly offenses line up outside in likely poor weather. this total has extreme value at 36.5.
(2x) panthers +7 -Autobet (details to be posted later). 27-23 Minny
(2x) giants -3 - ny needs to bounce back in wash where they have won and covered 3 straight by 10ppg. 27-20 NY

Autobets:

bills (A4)play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min

chiefs (A5) fade any team who just won a nationally televised game for a min of 1x
(A1)fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x.

panthers (A4)

[brooks85]

Liking all the plays except kc under and giants.

As bad as those offenses are(CLE/KC), the defenses are just as bad. I think jamaal, cribbs and, the new guy, jennings will run wild regardless of weather. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball through the air either. Especially KC, they get Bowe back who is an excellent receiver. It will also open their offense up because the past 4 weeks opposing defenses only had to worry about chris chambers. And on clevelands side, i think massaquoi will put up good numbers. As of now, the weather is just slated for cold and few snow showers. Unless it becomes more severe I like the low over.

As far as the giants. I just do not trust them in this spot. I think they played above themselves last weekend and will have a hard time putting up numbers against a better defense. WAS has stepped up its game on all facets in the past weeks and are putting up numbers to show for it. I like WAS at home, especially on MNF.

Good luck with your plays

[mikemac21]

gogogogogo

[Dexter]

Liking all the plays except kc under and giants.

As bad as those offenses are(CLE/KC), the defenses are just as bad. I think jamaal, cribbs and, the new guy, jennings will run wild regardless of weather. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball through the air either. Especially KC, they get Bowe back who is an excellent receiver. It will also open their offense up because the past 4 weeks opposing defenses only had to worry about chris chambers. And on clevelands side, i think massaquoi will put up good numbers. As of now, the weather is just slated for cold and few snow showers. Unless it becomes more severe I like the low over.

yeah, jamal charles is turning into a stud. hes almost as fast as chris johnson. great hands. should be the every down back next year.

[ragiche]

TNF

IND/JAX Over 43 ( 3x )

[polsefest]

I looked up A1 and A5 for this season so far and A5 is 18-10 ATS/15-13 SU and A1 is 5-1 ATS/ 4-2 SU. just to throw that out there, I recall someone wanted the stats. Actually the Colts are responsible for 3 of the 10 losses this year for A5 as they won and covered after winning on TV. Impressive AutoBet Dex.

As for tonight i'm taking the Colts. GL everyone.

[Smogs]

I looked up A1 and A5 for this season so far and A5 is 18-10 ATS/15-13 SU and A1 is 5-1 ATS/ 4-2 SU. just to throw that out there, I recall someone wanted the stats. Actually the Colts are responsible for 3 of the 10 losses this year for A5 as they won and covered after winning on TV. Impressive AutoBet Dex.

As for tonight i'm taking the Colts. GL everyone.

Chhers for looking that up dude, do we know what the record was like last year, it may be a solid profit maker, allowing us mere mortals to not have to use judgement to make picks

[polsefest]

no, I didn't look that far back. Maybe I will again when I have time (I have a graveyard job so that tends to happen) but looking at this season alone some of thoses results were not expected from a sense from a casual fan.

[Dexter]

I looked up A1 and A5 for this season so far and A5 is 18-10 ATS/15-13 SU and A1 is 5-1 ATS/ 4-2 SU. just to throw that out there, I recall someone wanted the stats. Actually the Colts are responsible for 3 of the 10 losses this year for A5 as they won and covered after winning on TV. Impressive AutoBet Dex.

As for tonight i'm taking the Colts. GL everyone.

sounds about right - i'll double check on my spreadsheet what i have this weekend, and will post it here.

i dont have prior year results for A1/A5. They were new ones that i created.

A4 i have been doiing for a long time. its always around 50-55%

[Dexter]

(2x) rams +11.5 (A4)

(2x) eagles -7.5 (time zone autobet - forget the number...will update later - think its A2)

[girth brooks]

I was waiting to see your thoughts on Philly game. You seem to fade teams that one televised games. Eagles won Sunday night, Niners Monday night. I have a crazy theory that the Eagles lose the last 3 games and Dallas takes the division while the 49ers take the wild card spot from Philly. I'm on the 49ers ml as I was last Monday. We shall see. Good luck to you and thanks for your insight, always interesting.

[BiffTFinancial]

dexter,

rock solid as usual. like saints ov, chiefs, ravens a lot. question: i was very high on rams +11 earlier this week, but backed off after swine flu news. i definitely understand playing a system and sticking with it, but does something like this at least cause you to consider no-playing it? i tend to automatically no-play something like that, especially when no big line move to add value. at any rate, bol this week. hope your stones on rams come through. may stay on sidelines and put those units elsewhere (maybe get heavy on Ravens, game moved to 4 pm b/c of snowstorm, BAL can run and CHI can't).

[shaneomac103]

the pitt gm going to be tough im a take dex's advice
lets go pitt

[Dexter]

(3x) titans -4

[JBNYC24]

like the picks. Eagles start time got pushed back to 415 just wanted to share that. Good luck this weekend

[Flopa3]

Dex what do you think about the Saints spread of -7 at home?

[Serbone]

Dex what do you think about the Saints spread of -7 at home?

What is your rationale for the Rams?

Vs. Texans, 3 starting OL are gone or out, maybe a 4th if Brown yields to flu.
#3 QB Null will play.

2 practice squad LB's start ( Rams lost 2 LB's last week). Most of yr, missing 3 of top 5 WR's. Safety OJ Atogwe out. 2 of top 4 CB's out.

A few more might be out with flu.

Either way, depends how you look at it, at least 11-12 or so starters are out from beginning of season, several just in the last 2 weeks.

Worst 53 man roster in the NFL to begin the season per Dan Dierdorf.

Word is out, spread went from 11 to 14.

[Dexter]

(2x) rams +11.5 (A4)

(2x) eagles -7.5 (time zone autobet - forget the number...will update later - think its A2)

canceled eagles - was not a system play due to the time change.

[Dexter]

i could not cancel the rams play with the guy i booked it with. to play the other side now to cancel and lose the vig would have been foolish (-14 now)....whatever, its not a huge bet. though yeah, i would be hesitant on playing it now since its falled out of the 7-13 range for the autobet.

[2daBank]

gl this week dex looks real solid to me. stop by my thread if you have a chance.

[africanroller]

Well Dex one of us is going to be a winner this week and oh yeah the rams have the pig flu but they may help them.

Chiefs/Browns Over 38.5
Minny -9
Houston -14
Arizona -14
GB +2
Tenn -5

[Dexter]

Well Dex one of us is going to be a winner this week and oh yeah the rams have the pig flu but they may help them.

Chiefs/Browns Over 38.5
Minny -9
Houston -14
Arizona -14
GB +2
Tenn -5

at least we both have tenn (though mia is knockin on the door )

[Dexter]

you fantasy players out there, make sure you get jamal charles on your squad next year. kid is headed for studville.

[Dexter]

Liking all the plays except kc under and giants.

As bad as those offenses are(CLE/KC), the defenses are just as bad. I think jamaal, cribbs and, the new guy, jennings will run wild regardless of weather. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball through the air either. Especially KC, they get Bowe back who is an excellent receiver. It will also open their offense up because the past 4 weeks opposing defenses only had to worry about chris chambers. And on clevelands side, i think massaquoi will put up good numbers. As of now, the weather is just slated for cold and few snow showers. Unless it becomes more severe I like the low over.

sharp call....

[Dexter]

STOP KICKING THE BALL TO CRIBBS!!!!!!!!!!!

jesus....its not rocket science.....out of bounds on a punt....up man/squib kick on kickoffs....

un friggin real....he is there offense

[africanroller]

Nothing like having the over done with in the first half. Gotta love it

[NYSportsGuy210]

What do you guys think of the O/U of 39 points in the Bucs-Seahawks game? Is this a string bet to make on the OVER or stay away from betting this one?

Any strong bet plays for the 4 PM ET games?

[ShaolinFury]

What do you guys think of the O/U of 39 points in the Bucs-Seahawks game? Is this a string bet to make on the OVER or stay away from betting this one? Any strong bet plays for the 4 PM ET games?

Im on the low 41.

[polsefest]

STOP KICKING THE BALL TO CRIBBS!!!!!!!!!!!

jesus....its not rocket science.....out of bounds on a punt....up man/squib kick on kickoffs....

un friggin real....he is there offense

just watch. KC ties it with a TD and in overtime they kick it off to Cribbs and he returns it for 6.

[Dexter]

wow....the titans completely collapsed in the 4th....gotta hope for OT and CJ to rip one off. unreal 15-0 4th

[Dexter]

and the chiefs with the ultimate tease....nightmare city today boy...

[Mybologne]

1H philly -4.5