Keepin' an eye on this.
I'm liking the Bmore and KC plays for this week.
GL man!!
I'm liking the Bmore and KC plays for this week.
GL man!!
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If you don't hang your balls out there and just do it, you'll never know what might have happened...
-- Valentino RossiComment -
Thankyou. Someone at therx forum asked why I liked Baltimore, so I will post here what my answer was ..
Okay.
Lets start with a little bit of information about the Ravens. The Ravens are 3-2 this season, winning by 14 vs. the chiefs, winning on the road at San Diego by five, creaming Cleveland by 31, losing on the road by six at New England, and last weekend being upset by Cincinatti. With that being said, they played two divisonal games winning one and losing one. They beat an 0-5 team, a 1-4 team and a 2-2 team,then lost to a 3-2 team and a 4-1 team. Now they go on the road to visit a 5-0 team in the Minnesota Viikings. So really defining strength of schedule, it is kind of funny that the teams they have played have "rised in skill" to this point. Baltimore is now 3-2, tied for 2nd in the division with Pittsburgh who look to have an easy win this weekend at home vs. the woeful Cleveland Browns, who as I mentioned Baltimore beat by 31. The team ahead of them is Cincinnatti, who they just lost a tight, yet sloppy, game too. Cincinnati has their hands full this week with Houston, and have a good chance at losing this game. Baltimore players and staff know, although most won't admit it, that this is an important game for them, though early in their season, as they go into their bye week after this game. The Ravens defense is a group of veterans and they are well aware that the best and worst case scenarios going into bye week are that they could be as good as tied for first, or worst case they could be 3-3 and have Pittsburgh a game ahead and Cincinnati a game ahead, and that is just in their division. Teams win over 70% of their games before a bye week, for the well known fact that if the players lose, they will have their coaches on their ass hard for the next two weeks. With all that being said, my point of all this is Baltimore has motivation.
Baltimore has always been well known for their great defense, and ability to rise in important games, but this season theyre offense has been just as good if not better than their defense, as far as importance to their success. Theyre defense is 4th against the rush this season, giving up only 76 yards on average per game, and should be able to box in Peterson, forcing him to run on the oustides which he has yet to master, and this is where Baltimores great open field tacklers will come into place. They need to do as Green Bay did vs peterson two weeks ago, where he was never able to get anything done on the inside as they continued to stack players on the inside and not giving peterson any holes. Besides one long run in the 1st quarter, Peterson wasn't able to accomplish much .. but brett favre had an oustanding game and carried the team on his shoulders. On the offensive side, Baltimore is 6th in the league in rushing, only allowing 380 yards on the ground in five games; and Flacco is also passing for 250 yards per game. Other stats: Baltimore has a +2 turnover ratio, they have a slight slight edge in time of possesion vs. opponents and have racked up 11 sacks, four more than opponents, with Flacco only going down 7 times this season.
Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 this season. They on the otherhand do not have a bye next week, instead will play Pittsburgh (who I talked about earlier) before going into Green Bay for Favre to play in his old home again, before going on a bye week. To be honest I believe Minnesota loses both this week and next week vs. Pittsburgh, and I am questioning whether or not they beat Green Bay for the bye week. Minnesota's schedule has looked like this; they won by 14 at Cleveland, by 14 at Detroit, by 3 vs. San Francisco, by 7 at home vs. Green Bay where Brett Favre really had no other option then win, before beating St. Louis by 28 last week (whom I had a large wager on, St. Louis that is). Minnesota also played division rivals twice, winning both games. The overall records of their opponents is 7 wins, 18 losses. Last week they did beat St. Louis by 28, but had nearly the same amount of passing yards and rushing yards as the now 0-5 St. Louis Rams, and if not for the sloppy play by St. Louis and the four turnovers (three of which were inside Minnesota's 10 yard line, two inside of Minnesota's three yard line) then this game would have been much closer. Minnesota really didn't impress me, and haven't impressed me in any game other than the Green Bay game .. yet that night is still stuck in all of our heads, and so I feel the public is giving Minnesota more credit than they deserve. Yes they are 5-0, but honestly they haven't played that great and it hasn't been too hard. I feel they receive a wake-up call this weekend when they face a very stout Baltimore defense, easily the best defense they have faced this year. They have the 19th best offense, in yards, this season .. 17th best in passing, 11th in rushing. They have a great turnover ratio of +8, lots of help from last week and have had 18 sacks this season, giving up 11. Those numbers are good and all, but with a schedule like theyve had I once again would expect such things. The publics perception is definately that Minnesota wins this game, given some of those stats and their record.
The fact of the matter is that Baltimore needs this win more, they are on a downslide and know that this game is extremely important to end on a good note before the bye. Minnesota is in for a tough stretch beginning this weekend and feel like they win, but Baltimore needs it more and I really expect Baltimores defense to show up strong and hyped in this game. Baltimore should be able to get some yards, both on the ground and through the air, and I expect Minnesota's O line to struggle vs. Baltimores D line; this will be their toughest challenge yet.
The situation favours Baltimore, and Minnesotas offense has not been tested like it will this season. Expect Baltimores D to box in peterson, and send blitzers at Favre and capitalizing when he tries to force something; like he is so well known for doing. If Minnesota covers this weekend, then I definately have to re-acess my view on Minnesota but I still do not buy that they are a superbowl bound team. I feel Baltimore is, and I expect them to come out firing from game start to game end. Hopefully Favre is trigger happy.
Hope that answers your question a bit..
P.S
This is my third straight wager on a Minnesota game. I bet on them to beat and cover vs. Green bay, and then bet on St. Louis last week.
GLComment -
Good write up. Good luck on your goal. I will be tuning in on all your picks. I thought we had that one last night. Where's the party when you hit your goal?Comment -
Got the first loser in college football...well weekend should be a good test for Josh, good luck manComment -
You have 4,855 reasons to think that this game is a very close one, good luck tonightComment -
Adding for tonight my FIRST NHL Selection of the year. Been following, just waited two weeks before placing a wager.
NHL:
2000$ - Carolina Hurricanes ML +115 (OT included)
GLComment -
Tough loss on the Hurricanes
Comment -
Yup, Carolina really should have had it in the shootout so many close ones, and two posts. its fine.Comment -
Great job on the teaser and Tulsa +9. My book doesn't do teasers but trailed the +9
Comment -
thanks kopite.
Starting bankroll: 25,000$ *Not my full bankroll, a part of it*
Final goal: 100,000$
*This is real money, so please avoid bashing. Every losing play is hard enough.*
NFL: 10-8 (+1,055$)
CFB: 10-10-1 (+10,815$)
MLB: 3-1 (+1,660$)
NHL: 0-1 (-2,000$)
*Three CFB losses were small wagers on +200 ml dogs*
OVERALL: 23-20-1 (+11,380$) - 54%
-------------------------------------------------------------
October 14th, 2009: (RECAP)
CFB: 2-0 +4,100$
NHL: 0-1 -2,000$
Pending:
Friday MLB:
1,000$ : LAA Angels/New York under 8.5 +103
500$ : LAA Angels ML +157
500$ : LAA Angels -1.5 +250 (Alternate line)
NFL Sunday
4,270 - New Orleans -3 -122
4,200 - Baltimore +3 -120
3,885 - Tampa Bay +3.5 -111
2,020 - Kansas City +6.5 -102
Monday
2,750 - Denver +4 -110
GLComment -
Nice call. Followed your teaser and tulsa pick.
ThanksComment -
congrats! thanks for sharing and hope it keeps up!
best of luck!Comment -
Sweet call man!!
By the time I got the teaser I could only get it at 49 so it was no action.
I also couldn't bring myself to take Tulsa. Just didn't have the brass to do it.If you don't hang your balls out there and just do it, you'll never know what might have happened...
-- Valentino RossiComment -
thanks man. Ya the total really rised a few hours after I placed my wager, glad I got it when I did.Comment -
Starting bankroll: 25,000$ *Not my full bankroll, a part of it*
Final goal: 100,000$
*This is real money, so please avoid bashing. Every losing play is hard enough.*
NFL: 10-8 (+1,055$)
CFB: 10-10-1 (+10,815$)
MLB: 3-1 (+1,660$)
NHL: 0-1 (-2,000$)
*Three CFB losses were small wagers on +200 ml dogs*
OVERALL: 23-20-1 (+11,380$) - 54%
-------------------------------------------------------------
October 15th, 2009:
CFB:
2000$ - South Florida +117
2,100$ - South Florida +8.5/under 54.5 (-110)
*6 pt tease*
MLB:
1,500$ - Philadelphia Phillies +129
1,865$ - Philadelphiia/Los Angeles under 7.5 -124
Pending:
Friday MLB:
1,000$ : LAA Angels/New York under 8.5 +103
500$ : LAA Angels ML +157
500$ : LAA Angels -1.5 +250 (Alternate line)
NFL Sunday
4,270 - New Orleans -3 -122
4,200 - Baltimore +3 -120
3,885 - Tampa Bay +3.5 -111
2,020 - Kansas City +6.5 -102
Monday
2,750 - Denver +4 -110
GLComment -
Correction: On the teaser I wagered 2,200$.Comment -
Haven't heard that one in a long time.
Comment -
Josh,
Do you only play o/u in teasers only as a general rule? This is the first time that I am looking at your picks so I don't have a history of your bets. What do you think of the under tonight? There's a thunderstorm going through the place and both teams have good defense.
ThanksComment -
During the week if I'll play an under then it will be on a teaser because the lines tend to be too tight, with the Bookmakers knowing that there isnt much to bet on but the degenerates will try and find a play. Thus they have more time to look at the games also and they make the lines very tight.
On the weekend I do not play over/unders. Just a general rule, but mostly because I don't have time to look at every single college game and also look for info on the over/under for the games. Just too time constraining, maybe in the future.
Thanks guys, gl tonight to everyone. Lets get some money.Comment -
Starting bankroll: 25,000$ *Not my full bankroll, a part of it*
Final goal: 100,000$
*This is real money, so please avoid bashing. Every losing play is hard enough.*
NFL: 10-8 (+1,055$)
CFB: 10-12-1 (+6,615$)
MLB: 4-2 (+1,730$)
NHL: 0-1 (-2,000$)
*Three CFB losses were small wagers on +200 ml dogs*
OVERALL: 24-23-1 (+7,250$) - 51%
-------------------------------------------------------------
October 16th, 2009:
NO CFB FRIDAY
*No value in the lines anymore, if you were to bet this game you would have had too when the lines came out .. I contemplated a Rutgers and under teaser, but its not worth it*
*I needed to deposit an extra 2,300$ to place all these wagers, but I will withdraw that money after the weekend*
Friday MLB:
1,000$ : LAA Angels/New York under 8.5 +103
500$ : LAA Angels ML +157
500$ : LAA Angels -1.5 +250 (Alternate line)
Saturday NCAAF:
4,320$: Wisconsin -2.5 -108
3,780$: Boston College -2.5 -108
3,030$: Georgia Tech +3 -101
2,100$: Iowa State -1 -105
2,100$: Western Michigan +7 -105
Sunday NFL:
4,270 - New Orleans -3 -122
4,200 - Baltimore +3 -120
3,885 - Tampa Bay +3.5 -111
2,020 - Kansas City +6.5 -102
Monday
2,750 - Denver +4 -110
GLComment -
to hopefully a 4-0 Sunday
Comment -
appreciate the write up on minn game. gl on sunday.Comment -
thanks man, gl todayComment -
Friday: 1-2 +30$
Saturday: 3-2 +2,080$
Sunday: 3-1 +5,115$ (May add 2nd half in Seattle game or/and late night game)
Monday: PendingComment -
3,000$ - Seattle -3 (2nd half) +101
LOVE THIS BET!
Had to call this one into two different books, got +100 at one +102 at the other.
GLComment -
As do i!!!
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