Football Winners - turning 25,000 into 100,000

[haserfauld]

I'd consider dropping $100 on the ML or possibly more on the points, which are now at +9 at my book at least. I don't see the eagles losing this SU, but I didn't see them losing to oakland either and that was costly.

[VegasPlayer]

Nice thread JH, No nonsense.

?. You may have already answered this, but are your - odds wager amounts "risk" or "win".

[VegasPlayer]

Sure Do Josh. 3 miles from the strip. Been here 3 years. If you're moving here, nows the time to buy real estate. They're practically giving the houses away. Glad you're doing this for a living as unemployment is over 12%, but actually is much higher. Feel free to look me up anytime. Thanks for posting early. I work 3-11. And thanks for the quick response.

[PRC]

Hey nice job this weekend

[renojoe]

re: washington plays

hey josh,

nice job over the weekend....

you reasoning for playing all three plays again... You feel certain of the under....

obviously there is no guarantees but you are trying to play more options for more chances to win vs the lose scenerios?

thanks.

renojoe (from maryland)

[luiscortes]

good calls on the weekend josh josh,im new here and want your advice in my system of playing because really sucks,you know i play all the games in nfl whit the same amount 100 dlls each..some weeks i make a profit but most of them the profit is not much..yesterday i parlay some of my plays to get more...i got sd,dallas,arizona, but i put minnesota in most of those parlays and lost must of those parlays ,how to get a good selections of teams ????? (greatings from mexico) i know many guys laugh at me for this cuestions? but you seems like a nice person....sorry for the spelling trying to do my best!!!!!!!

[og4667]

Good picking today, go get em!

[Parligod]

Rough night man sorry to hear. The line kept bumping all week - I think it started at -6.5 and finished around -9 and that actually made me feel better about my teaser. I checked what you said and I appreciate the analysis. I agree with taking calculated risks (just like in poker) and here I bumped my personal odds of winning to around 88% (Eagles had to win by 2). I saw it as more a mid-scoring game (I wasn't impressed with the offenses that the Redskins have "contained" this season) so I took a gamble and it paid off. Two weeks ago I had a 7-point teaser with 1 to go worth 3.5k and that one missed.

I think the takeaway for me is to place my own educated % and hedge the other side for that remainder (so here, I should have put 12% on the other end even though I would've lost it would've been a smart move).

Anyway get some R&R this week, I'll be busy trying to figure out some good picks.

[VegasPlayer]

Yes, we noticed that when we were shopping around. Is there a reason for this, in your opinion? I have a few hunches, but would like an insiders view.

I'll definately PM you in January after the move.

GL

Howdy Josh,

In my opinion, heres what happened. Much like many other areas Vegas was overbuilt. 3 years ago, there was construction everywhere. Demand exceeded supply. There were jobs everywhere and the skilled trades and Union workers had all the overtime they wanted. People were buying 1 house and then obtaining 2nd mortgages to finance their toys and lifestyles. Many also bought 2nd homes hoping to flip them. Of course, the real bookies, the bankers saw all this as an opportunity and let people finance beyond their means. Then the economy went bust and people lost their jobs. ARM's reset and they realized there was no way they could make the monthly nut. It happened very quickly. Many simply packed up and left. I drive around my immediate area and I see many, many beautiful homes sitting vacant. Also, the strip malls are at least 60% empty which is an indication of how many small business's have failed and large chains that have scaled back. Some, like Rite aid have pulled out of Nevada completely. As a result of all this, real estate prices have tumbled. I shudder to think what my humble shack would fetch on the open market these days. Thankfully, I have a fixed rate mortgage and a pretty secure job. Many, many other jobs in the local economy depend on construction and tourism which is on it's ass right now. Anyway, the bookies (banks) have turned into real estate holding companies and are trying to sell these properties. But, you have to remember they are bankers not real estate people so they re hard to deal with and as I'm sure you know trying to talk sensibly or negotiate with bankers is an exercise in futility. Therefore houses continue to foreclose and sit idle. People are still coming to Vegas, but not spending nearly a much money as the Strip hotels have deeply discounted their room rates. They get here and realize that they got the cheap room, but they're still gonna get hosed $100 for dinner. Not to mention what they pump into the slot machines or leave on the tables. Anyway, there is much more I could tell you, but I feel I've gone on long enough. I have to make some money today! Feel free to IM me your e-mail if you'd like to discuss further off line.

[dannyovercash]

4-2 this weekend

SD & Indy won large 6 unit plays
missed on 3 team CFB parlay , ATL (4 units)
Philly and ARZ second half won small 2 unit plays

looking forward to this week, have ECU tonight -5
SD looks like a lock again -17 against the Raiders
also like Balt -3

[eberetta1]

It is really interesting that you are blogging your goal. I am trying to go from zero to $1,000 playing poker with no time constraints. I am on year three and stand at $471. Not enough to make a living of it.

I'm a newbie at sports betting. I play poker, instead and your bankroll management ideas track in the poker world too.

I still haven't sat down to figure what the following means: 2,100$ - New York Jets/Miami under 36 -105
1,800$ - Miami Dolphins +125
In the first bet, you are betting $2100 that in the jets/miami game, you are taking the under 36 points to be scored during the whole game, and here is where I get confused, if you win the bet, for every 105 you bet , you win $100. So if you win your bet you get your $2100 bet back and $2000 more.
In the 2nd game you are betting $1800 that Miami Dolphins win and for every $100 you bet, it pays $125. So if you win you get your $1800 bet back and $2250 more.
Am I understanding this, or do I still need to get schooled?
How much do they charge to place these kind of bets?

Another area I am confused about, you said "CFB: 8-9-1 (+9,375$) *Great day". You won fewer than half your bets so the bets must not be equal bet amounts on every game. Am I right on that? You must have several best bets that you bet double or triple on???

I will be interested to keep watching this thread and see your progression!!!

[endorphin]

eberetta1 is a super newbie.
I suggest you put your money elsewhere, my friend. gambling is never a good thing, 99 out of 100 times you will end up broke. unless you're that 1, somebody like this hamilton guy.

[dannyovercash]

yeh, I would say that Hamilton guy is the 1 in 100, b/c he's makin me money too

[Totolover1409]

Would you still take it at under 7.5

[luiscortes]

LIKE IT ALL ,AUBURN AND TENESSE NOT GOING TO TOUCH THOSE ONES!!!!!!GL JOSH ,THANKS A LOT

[dannyovercash]

Josh, I agree with all 4 college football picks, however we differ on NFL picks this week. I like Minn / Jax / and Houston big

I am laying 3 units on Houston , NYJ , and Minn 3 team parlay

Bears , Indy, SD, and Jax will all be 2 unit single game bets

also taking WVU tonight -3

gl

[Stealinhome]

Love the card Ham

[minet123]

Cash'em BIG this weekend Josh

[olemiss33]

Sorry guys I just haven't had enough time to do write-ups. Today has been much busier than I thought, and I am going out with the fiancee in a couple hours.

Here is what I expect to happen in each game however.

Auburn will run the heck out of the ball and I expect their defense to show up this weekend. Control the clock, stop Mississippi in the redzone (where they have struggled all year) and Auburn comes out with the win, in this hard fought conference game *a game which has alot of importance too it*. Auburn wins by 6.


Conference wins are a big factor in college football, and I expect Missouri to get their first of the season when they take on the 2-5 Colorado Buffaloes. Missouri is 4-3, with their three losses coming in their last three games, all vs. ranked teams. Don't expect Colorado's offense to get much done in this game, unless they come with some gameplan that shocks everybody, but they're running game is only averaging 80 yards per game and Missouri's run defense is quick on the ball and strong, therefore this should be a very one sided game. Prediction. Missouri win by 17-20.


In short, 4-4 Toledo Rockets go to Miami-Ohio to face the winless, 0-8, Redhawks. Expect the unexpected in this game. Expect Miami to come out fired up, and expect them to slow down the Rockets hot passing, forcing them to run the ball more where they are uncomfortable.
I also expect Miami Ohio's pass offense to have a decent game vs. a defense that is finally worse than their own ( the first time this has happened all season for Miami). Toledo cannot stop the run or the pass on defense, and I expect Miami-Ohio to come out fired up in a game they give themselves a good shot at winning. Miami has had a hard schedule this year, playing two teams in the top 12 as well as five road games and after coming close vs. Northen Illinois last week they should have enough motivation and talent to get their first win of the season. Prediction. Miami-Ohio by 6 to 10.


NFL:
Green Bay -3 at home vs. Minnesota
*I was on Minnesota the last time these two teams met, and this time I will be on Green Bay. Brett Favre has now won against every single football team in the league. The Green Bay fans will be hype for this game, attempting to make things hard for Brett at the line, and I honestly expect him to make more mistakes than Aaron Rogers in this game. As much as Favre would like to win this game, I think the players of Green Bay, and the fans as well, will be ready for this game and to put the thought and talk of Brett Favre in Green Bay as history. This game will prove to be "the start of a new era" in Green Bay, and I expect Rogers and company to grind out a win in what should be a very heated, and enjoyable game. Prediction: Green Bay by 10-13.


NY Giants PK at Philadelphia
I expect Philadelphia to come out flat with six days of rest and without their most important offensive threat, in Brian Westbrook. Philadelphia struggles when Westbrook is injured, and although one should expect them to change their gameplan around it will not be enough for Smith, Manningham and Eli Manning who will score with ease this weekend. Philadelphia has been one of the teams I watch closely for years, and they have yet to excite me this season and still give me no reason to bet on the team. Sure they play at home this weekend, but Eli Manning lives for these kind of games and he will find away to win, though I expect an easy win out of them. Prediction: NYG by 13-17.

Tennessee -3 vs. Jacksonville

If you've noticed, I have been waiting for Tennessee to put in Vince Young before betting them to win their first game of the season. Tennessee is not a bad team, and although their record doesn't show it, they are a much better team than Jacksonville on both sides of the ball. With a losing/struggling team, sometimes it is just a little bit of motivation or change, which will change their mindsets and the way they view a game. The players all wanted Young in, the president wanted young in, the fans wanted Young in .. Young wanted Young in; and the players and fans will respond tonight in what should be strong perfomance by this winless titans squad. Prediction: Tennessee by 16


Buffalo +3.5 vs. Houston Texans
This is a line movement/hunch play. Buffalo takes on Houston at home and with over 75 percent of the public on Buffalo the line moves from +3.5 +102 to +110, which shows me more money is coming in on Buffalo than Houston, or the books wan't you to think that.
Nobody expects Buffalo to come out and win two straight games, but i have a hunch this weekend they do .. I have indeed, looked hard into this game but I do not have anymore time to talk about it. Prediction: Buffalo by 6-9


Those weren't really write-ups, but I am sorry I don't really have the time to break down each game for you and explain why I like the teams the way I would like too. Rest assured that I have looked hard into these games and am very confident in everyone of my selections.

GL this weekend everybody.

1)Ole Miss struggled in the Red Zone? They are second in the conference in RZ offense, with a 95.7% conversion rate. They have TD's on 17 of 23 possessions in the RZ. That's the highest % in the conference for TD conversion.

2) Auburn is going to run the ball? Really? Ole Miss' defense is 3rd in the country in TD's allowed, with 8 on the season...one behind Penn State and Florida. They just don't allow TD's. Only Arkansas and Memphis have scored more than 1 offensive TD against Ole Miss.....one of Arkansas' was on a tipped Hail Mary, and Memphis scored one of theirs after beginning the drive at the Ole Miss 8. Arkansas, who is a far superior offense to Auburn, had 299 yards against Ole Miss last week, with 58 coming on the tipped Hail Mary pass. They ran for 55 yards.

3) Auburn is atrocious on defense, and is facing an Ole Miss offense that has found their groove, with 500+ yards the last two weeks. Auburn is virtually no threat to throw the ball, so Ole Miss will slip nine in the box to stop the run. Nutt is very familiar with Malzahns offense from their time together @ Arkansas, and I can assure you for a 100% fact, Nutt wants to beat him bad this weekend. It is personal.

I like some of your plays, but you are WAY on the wrong side on this game. In fact, this game may be over at the half. Ole Miss wins 31-13.

[dimon]

I actually wonder about the RZ myself...OleMiss is one of the best if not the best in the nation in RZ...I guess Josh is buzy now with the wedding arrangements and do not do his homework properly

[endorphin]

Hamilton, I think you should just stop getting cute. Just focus on your picks, put it up on the board, and be done with it. All these write-ups are unnecessary.

[Smogs]

Hamilton, I think you should just stop getting cute. Just focus on your picks, put it up on the board, and be done with it. All these write-ups are unnecessary.

Nothing wrong with understanding the thought process behind each pick, it's his thread after all

[olemiss33]

Hamilton, I think you should just stop getting cute. Just focus on your picks, put it up on the board, and be done with it. All these write-ups are unnecessary.

Nothing wrong with having write-ups. The problem I had is that he didn't do his homework on the Ole Miss/Auburn game. To say Ole Miss is having trouble in the RZ simply isn't accurate. I dont think he did it intentionally, he just didn't do his homework.

Trust me...no one on this board is better in this conference than me, especially in games that involve Ole Miss.

[Smogs]

Sh*t, just saw CBJ were 3-1 up only to lose on a SO to Pitts tonight, bad break dude, i feel your frustration

[Parligod]

Hamilton, I think you should just stop getting cute. Just focus on your picks, put it up on the board, and be done with it. All these write-ups are unnecessary.

Endo this is like the worst "advice" you could possibly give. I'm not trying to bash you but seriously, hearing the justifications for a pick is a very necessary part of the process. I want to hear the thought process and determine whether I agree or not.

This benefit is mutual, in that both the readers like you and me, as well as Josh can hear educated (hopefully) thoughts on a play/no play and go from there. If you don't like the write-ups, skip them. But thats my favorite part.

P.S., I worry that this week the books are going to get a lot of their money back, as lots of cappers are on conflicting sides in NFL picks. Josh I agree on your 1st 3 (though GB/Minn + NGY/Philly is close to a no-play for me), but I have Houston covering vs. Buffalo here. Houston has had 4 solid games in a row, dominating Oakland, losing a nail-biter at AZ, and beating Cincy/SF). Buffalo conversly got crushed by NE, Miami, and lost to...Cleveland? Jets win is nice, but Sanchez is more to blame than anything else. I see Texans scoring 27-30 here.

[dimon]

NFL do not look too good so far

[dannyovercash]

solid day today

missed 3 team parlay (Hou, Minn, Jax) Missed Indy and SD for 2 units (didn't do Jax single game)

hit a 3 team 10 pt teaser Hou / Dallas / Chi
hit a 3 team parlay Hou / Balt / Phi

also have NBA: 2nd Half Denver -6.5 Over 103.5

if you have my site: I was 7-5ATS and 9-3 SU today

[luiscortes]

??? man thanks for the advice to put my bets in only 4 or 5 plays, big hit on the dallas boys,miami,carolina,and miss the giants 4-1 today !!!!! thanks josh hope you doing good whit baseball .... thanks for the college picks

[FishFace5]

what u likin big man

[GGPLAYER]

Make it a good one. I need to get out of this funk. I did a 6.5 teaser with Atl and the under which looked great until the last two minutes of the half.

WTF? Half time is already over? Ugh! I can't catch a friggin break. That seemed to go by quick.

[GGPLAYER]

Well I guess I can catch a break. Still don't know how I did it but I won my bet. I had Atl +17.5 and under 62.5. How many missed FG's were there?? I guess this sort of makes up for Iowa screwing me two weeks in a row and GB blowing my 2nd half bet because they went for 2. Sorry to take up your thread with this but I am just so damn happy right now that I won last night. Hope you made out ok.

[vitalogist]

Hey guys. I was going to add Atlanta 2nd half and the under but I do not like betting road teams in the second half and I wasn't overly confident on the under so I layed off. Oh well.

Starting bankroll: 25,000$ *Not my full bankroll, a part of it*
Final goal: 100,000$

*This is real money, so please avoid bashing. Every losing play is hard enough.*

NFL: 23-21-1 (+3,382$)
CFB: 18-17-2 (+11,825$)
MLB: 9-6 (+7,200$)
NHL: 4-8 (-6,840$)

*Three CFB losses were small wagers on +200 ml dogs, one MLB loss was a +250 ml dog, one NFL loss was a small wager on +600 ml dog .. less and less value in these type of plays lately*

OVERALL: 54-52-3 (+15,537$) - 51%
------------------------------------------------------------
November 3rd, 2009:

I’ve had three NHL games go to shootouts, in which I’ve lost all three. Hoping to turn the NHL season around starting tonight.

FULL CARD:
1,500$ (1.5 units) - Boston/Detroit under 5.5 +100
2,500$ (2.5 units) - Boston Bruins +136 (including overtime)
3,375$ (2.5 units) - Toronto Maple Leafs ML -135 (including overtime)
3, 850$ (3.5 units) -Anaheim Ducks -110 (including overtime)



GL to everyone.

With you on these Josh. You are due for a puck heater! Good luck bro!

[GGPLAYER]

hey brother. don't feel sorry, haha you won and you're happy. I'm happy for you and i'm sure others are also.

I had Green Bay 2nd half too and I feel your pain, but you have to move on.

Keep it up.
GL

Thanks Josh! I have been keeping tabs on your thread since you started posting here. Like you said you have to take your hits and move on....tough sometimes. But I'm pulling for you to do well and will keep checking in on your progress. Do you cap NBA or College hoops? .

[endorphin]

Let's don't mess with NHL anymore. Yes, we're down by a bunch, but we don't have to prove anything. Put the money for NHL on NBA instead.

[trix]

good shit with your thread josh...look forward to seeing your picks for this week! best of luck my man.