RLM

[Mr Parlay to you]

Looks like Detroit is going to have another RLM again this week. I'm thinking Detroit is a solid play at +13.5.

[Totolover1409]

Detroit does not quite meet the criteria for an RLM, namely because 46% of public is on Detroit, not quite 30% or below. And on a side note, not quite 10,000 bets on the game.

[Totolover1409]

Also, I have already taken Balti +3.

Many faces of Bmore

[Sidetracked]

Bmore isnt 2 yet, what i was saying is take Bmore now at 3 before it moves to 2 and becomes the RLM play of the week....

[daneblazer]

How about Kansas City? It looks like most of the public is on KC ATS and the line is trending upwards. I liked this line anyway...

[Totolover1409]

I also took Kansas City, but the line opened at +6.5 and remains at +6.5. Don't see any movement there.

[Robust]

How about Kansas City? It looks like most of the public is on KC ATS and the line is trending upwards. I liked this line anyway...

no rlm on KC.. not even a movement at all...??

Robust

[daneblazer]

depends on where you look...its moved anywhere from nothing to 1 point. Looks like rain is in the forecast too

[Robust]

.5 RLM on the bills and saints.. fyi.. but NOT 1 pt.. no play yet (unless you try to beat the line, but it could correct itself like the early rlms this week)!

good luck and keep looking!

Robust

[Robust]

depends on where you look...its moved anywhere from nothing to 1 point. Looks like rain is in the forecast too

where are you looking?? I use bet tracker.. went 3-0 last week in RLM.. not saying your source is bad, but if bet tracker is working, why change to another site?

Robust

[Robust]

Also, I have already taken Balti +3.

Many faces of Bmore

nice you sharpy!!

From Nick Bogdanovich's article:
WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK SIX IN THE NFL

BALTIMORE AT MINNESOTA: There was early support on the Dog and Under on the openers of 3 and 45. Minnesota is down to -2½ (which means Baltimore will once again be a popular teaser choice), with the total falling to 43½. I have to say a lot of sharps are betting Baltimore totals like it's last year instead of this year. The defense looks to have lost a step, while the offense has improved. Everyone definitely wanted the full field goal here. And, maybe the public will bet Favre back to -3 on game day, bringing in more sharp action on the dog. Weather won't be an issue in the dome. Sharp totals players are happy with their current positions.

hope you ca$h!!

Robust

[daneblazer]

scoresandodds, vegasinsider, and SBRodds. I was asking about KC because I thought it was trending towards some RLM last night. Maybe it isn't.

[Totolover1409]

I use bodog and the lines for the bills and the saints remain at +10 and -3 respectively. Still looking.

Good look though Robust.

[Sidetracked]

gl this week everyone

[Totolover1409]

Good luck to you Sidetracked.

[jon13009]

Looks like slim RLM NFL pickings this week:

As of 10/16/09 @ 5am EST (SI free site)

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

New Orleans (v. NYG at NO) 29% (24071 bets) -3 (open) to -3.5: RLM 0.5


only other RLM I see is:

Buffalo (v. NYJ at NYJ) 36% (12840 bets) +10 (open) to +9.5: RLM 0.5

NO or BUF are not prime RLMs at only 0.5 points.
Better to handicap these game further.

[TGoat]

What about college? Is college out of the question? Maybe for college the number of bets could be relaxed.

I take it the Pitt game doesn't qualify because the line is moving the wrong way?

What about Iowa--Wisconsin?

Thanks

[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/SMD/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.png[/IMG]

[Question: to insert an image do you have to upload it first to Image Shack or something similar?]

[GGPLAYER]

Detroit does not quite meet the criteria for an RLM, namely because 46% of public is on Detroit, not quite 30% or below. And on a side note, not quite 10,000 bets on the game.

I've been following and betting on RLM games all year. I'm totally confused by what you guys are saying with the Det/GB game. I always use the SBR link at the top of the page for Live Odds. All week the money has been on Det and yet the line has improved for them dramatically from +11 to +13.5. To me that says GB is the correct bet. On Tues it was at like 65% and now it's at 56% as of this post. To me that says some people picked up on that trend and started betting GB. Where do you see that only 46% of the public on Det??

[GGPLAYER]

Looks like slim RLM NFL pickings this week:

As of 10/16/09 @ 5am EST (SI free site)

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

New Orleans (v. NYG at NO) 29% (24071 bets) -3 (open) to -3.5: RLM 0.5


only other RLM I see is:

Buffalo (v. NYJ at NYJ) 36% (12840 bets) +10 (open) to +9.5: RLM 0.5

NO or BUF are not prime RLMs at only 0.5 points.
Better to handicap these game further.

I agree that this week is a little light on the RLM...unlike last week. But I'm seeing a few more games to watch:

Hou opened at +4, 53% on them and the new line is +5.5.....RLM 1.5

Atl opened at -3.5, 61% on them and the new line is -3........RLM .5

SD opened at -3.5, 52% on them and the new line is -3.......RLM .5

I use whatever the opening line is on SBR Live Odds and then I compare it to the BookMakers current line.

I went 4-1 last week doing this with my only loss being Houston which should have covered!

[dmolition]

Saints looks like RLM to me, -3 to -3.5 (huge on NFL) on 31% of bets.

[Totolover1409]

I agree that this week is a little light on the RLM...unlike last week. But I'm seeing a few more games to watch:

Hou opened at +4, 53% on them and the new line is +5.5.....RLM 1.5

Atl opened at -3.5, 61% on them and the new line is -3........RLM .5

SD opened at -3.5, 52% on them and the new line is -3.......RLM .5

I use whatever the opening line is on SBR Live Odds and then I compare it to the BookMakers current line.

I went 4-1 last week doing this with my only loss being Houston which should have covered!

I was always under the impression that a true RLM would be with the public betting roughly 70-30.

[Robust]

this is fvcked!! 5 rlms.. i don't trust it, but there they are..

Hou +5
STL +9.5
NO +3.5
Jax +14
NYJ -9.5


make sure it is a ONE point move.. over 60% bets... over 10,000 bets.. 1/2 points don't count in my book..

good luck!!

Robust

[TGoat]

this is fvcked!! 5 rlms.. i don't trust it, but there they are..

Hou +5
STL +9.5
NO +3.5
Jax +14
NYJ -9.5

As far as I can tell at 7:00 am this morning, none of these are a play.

But for the sake of argument, let's say the Jets are -9 instead of -9.5, then it would be an RLM. But wouldn't the bet be on the Bills? Don't you bet on the opposite team?

Thanks

[Robust]

As far as I can tell at 7:00 am this morning, none of these are a play.

But for the sake of argument, let's say the Jets are -9 instead of -9.5, then it would be an RLM. But wouldn't the bet be on the Bills? Don't you bet on the opposite team?

Thanks

was buzzing last night and made some stoopid mistakes reading the lines..

STL and NO are rlm.. the rest are not.. lol.. but as you said, they are half point moves so no play on them..

Robust

[Totolover1409]

If a team is favored and the line moved DOWN when the majority of the public is betting on them, you bet the other team. for example, hypothetically speaking, if the Niners are -4 and move to -3 with 70%+ of public on them and over 10,000 bets, you would take the opposing team.

[Robust]

If a team is favored and the line moved DOWN when the majority of the public is betting on them, you bet the other team. for example, hypothetically speaking, if the Niners are -4 and move to -3 with 70%+ of public on them and over 10,000 bets, you would take the opposing team.

yes!

that is rlm..

Robust

[GGPLAYER]

Saints looks like RLM to me, -3 to -3.5 (huge on NFL) on 31% of bets.

There is RLM on this game. More people are betting on NYG and the line is improving for them. That is RLM.

G-Men opened at +3 and 61% of the bets have been placed on them but yet the line has moved to +3.5. Not a big move but it is something to consider.

[GGPLAYER]

I was always under the impression that a true RLM would be with the public betting roughly 70-30.

I don't know the exact % but yes the larger the number the better. What I like to see is a big line move. When I see a point or more go in the wrong direction I take notice. The games I mentioned were ones to monitor.

[jon13009]

Only RLMs on 10/18/09 are still:

NO (v. NYG at NO) 37% (57918 bets) -3 (open) to -3.5: RLM 0.5 - problem RLM<1.0, %close to 40% (best if percentage bet is<30%, RLM >=1.0)

BUF (v. NYJ at NYJ) 31% (42149 bets) +10 (open) to +9.5: RLM 0.5 - problems RLM <1.0, BUF away.

Slim pickings this week.
Both NFL RLMs are weak RLM plays this week. GL.

[DeluxeLiner]

.5 RLM...not as successful as full point...do a steam play if you see sharp books move the line RLM before game time.

[Totolover1409]

hopefully more obvious RLM next week

[Sidetracked]

theres no RLM this week IMO...gl everyone

[Totolover1409]

Hope you all cashed on the baltimore and the KC games!

[jon13009]

Only RLMs on 10/18/09 are still:

NO (v. NYG at NO) 37% (57918 bets) -3 (open) to -3.5: RLM 0.5 - problem RLM<1.0, %close to 40% (best if percentage bet is<30%, RLM >=1.0)

BUF (v. NYJ at NYJ) 31% (42149 bets) +10 (open) to +9.5: RLM 0.5 - problems RLM <1.0, BUF away.

Slim pickings this week.
Both NFL RLMs are weak RLM plays this week. GL.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion on what RLMs are and a variety of interpretations.

Please correct me if this is incorrect (this is for my clarification):

When the team with the greater number of people betting (say greater than 60% and over 8000 bets made) gets the reverse line movement (eg. NYG +3 to +3.5 - 61% bet)), It means Vegas WANTS you to bet on that team.

The NYG is a reverse line bet, but the NYGs are the team NOT to bet on!!!!

NYG is what Vegas wants you to bet (Remember vegas want the line to be 50/50 becasue they profit with the Vig whomever wons or loses).

Vegas is steering you to bet on the NYGs with that RLM!!!!!

If Vegas tries to make the percentages move away from 50/50, then Vegas has a stake in the game - they want the team with FEWER NUMBER OF BETS TO WIN. (and screw the larger percentage of people betting.) As such if Vegas moves the line in a manner that does not move it towards 50%, they are steering people to go with the favorite.

The team with FEWER number of bets (eg. New Orleans -3 to -3.5 39% bet) is the team Vegas wants you to bet against. Thus, Vegas is betting on New Orleans, and it is usually in your best interest to take NO. Since this is only a 0.5 RLM, it is a minor variation, but remember 3 points is a critical value in any game. (versus -4 to -4.5...)

To find a RLM.
1. Look for teams with LESS than 40% bet (best, less than 30%)

2. Look for RLMs (The line gets worse for the team)
-Say -10 to open...to -12 = RLM of 2.0
-Say +5 to open to +3 = RLM of 2.0
-Say +1 to 0 = RLM of 1.0
etc...
Best RLMs are >1.0
If the line is +/-15 or greater the RLM has to be a minimum of 1.0 (personal preference)

3. I think RLMs are best when the HOME team is given the RLM
- This is the classic fade the public, take the home dog - with the advantage you are betting with Vegas if an RLM occurs.

So far this week....

NO 48 NYG 27 - NO +3.5 = W

BUF +9.5 in progress........

[Totolover1409]

It seems like there is a bit of confusion on what RLMs are and a variety of interpretations.

Please correct me if this is incorrect (this is for my clarification):

When the team with the greater number of people betting (say greater than 60% and over 8000 bets made) gets the reverse line movement (eg. NYG +3 to +3.5 - 61% bet)), It means Vegas WANTS you to bet on that team.

The NYG is a reverse line bet, but the NYGs are the team NOT to bet on!!!!

NYG is what Vegas wants you to bet (Remember vegas want the line to be 50/50 becasue they profit with the Vig whomever wons or loses).

Vegas is steering you to bet on the NYGs with that RLM!!!!!

If Vegas tries to make the percentages move away from 50/50, then Vegas has a stake in the game - they want the team with FEWER NUMBER OF BETS TO WIN. (and screw the larger percentage of people betting.) As such if Vegas moves the line in a manner that does not move it towards 50%, they are steering people to go with the favorite.

The team with FEWER number of bets (eg. New Orleans -3 to -3.5 39% bet) is the team Vegas wants you to bet against. Thus, Vegas is betting on New Orleans, and it is usually in your best interest to take NO. Since this is only a 0.5 RLM, it is a minor variation, but remember 3 points is a critical value in any game. (versus -4 to -4.5...)

To find a RLM.
1. Look for teams with LESS than 40% bet (best, less than 30%)

2. Look for RLMs (The line gets worse for the team)
-Say -10 to open...to -12 = RLM of 2.0
-Say +5 to open to +3 = RLM of 2.0
-Say +1 to 0 = RLM of 1.0
etc...
Best RLMs are >1.0
If the line is +/-15 or greater the RLM has to be a minimum of 1.0 (personal preference)

3. I think RLMs are best when the HOME team is given the RLM
- This is the classic fade the public, take the home dog - with the advantage you are betting with Vegas if an RLM occurs.

So far this week....

NO 48 NYG 27 - NO +3.5 = W

BUF +9.5 in progress........

That is correct. You do NOT want to be on the Giants if a high percentage of the public is on em. The line moves from +3 to +3.5 for the Giants because Vegas want you to be more tempted to be on this game. Therefore you bet on the other team.