The model had its worst year ever in 2019, and even after a full off-season looking hard at the variables and weights the algorithm uses in its projections, I’m at a loss to explain why it did so badly. I’d been thinking of throwing in the towel, but rerunning last season with a full set of 2019 stats, the results were good enough to give it another try.
Initial projections will be posted on Tuesdays, with first injury-updated numbers posted either Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Final projections for Sunday’s games will be posted on Saturday, and MNF projections posted Sunday night. Final projected Margins of Victory (MOV) will not change, but as lines may change, so could the final ATS pick. This how the model is graded – however, remember that numbers are only a guide, and depending on last minute starter status, even I’ll fade the model – so merely tailing the model’s ATS picks is never a good idea.
Anyway – good luck to all. I’m just thankful we have a season of football at all.
Initial projections will be posted on Tuesdays, with first injury-updated numbers posted either Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Final projections for Sunday’s games will be posted on Saturday, and MNF projections posted Sunday night. Final projected Margins of Victory (MOV) will not change, but as lines may change, so could the final ATS pick. This how the model is graded – however, remember that numbers are only a guide, and depending on last minute starter status, even I’ll fade the model – so merely tailing the model’s ATS picks is never a good idea.
Anyway – good luck to all. I’m just thankful we have a season of football at all.
