16-0 record in the preseason.
Here are my first picks for week 1.
Falcons@Eagles under 46.5
Chicago Bears+8
Here are my first picks for week 1.
Falcons@Eagles under 46.5
Chicago Bears+8
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Working on two more plays.
If Bears can acquire Mack I believe that the Bears will recieve some money, so if you like Bears like me, go in now.
I love Bears as teaser material.Comment -
Will provide short writeups later.Comment -
Good luck and thanks for posting your play. Write-up will be very much appreciated also. Trying to learn from you here.
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I really like that opening thu game under as well, I’d like it better if it was being played Sunday other than the nfl kickoff where these crooked fukks will prob hand points to both teams with incompetent flags against the d, lol. On paper play looks really sound tho,, congrats on that preseason bro, pretty amazing stuff!!Comment -
Adding Cleveland Browns+6
Can't trust the Steelers on the road versus sub 0.500 teams. For some reason, they have a losing record in this spot. Since 2014 Steelers have average 29.8 PPG at home but only 22.2 PPG on the road. A drastic difference and no other team had more than a 5point difference between home and road scoring.
This has worked because their defense has been good, but the Steelers are missing one very very important piece, Ryan Shazier. Steelers were destroyed in the run game with Shazier out last season. I believe Browns will win the run game on Sunday, their run defense is among the best in the league and they will have a good opportunity to run all over Steelers without Shazier. Hyde could have a field day.
If you take away Steelers matchup against a Texans team without a QB, Steelers allowed 33.5 points and 381 yards after they lost Shazier. Shazier is a game changer and the glue that holds their defense together.
Another game changer will be Tyrod Taylor which will hopefully eliminate Browns league worst turnover margin. Everyone says that the turnover battle predicts games like no other statistic, and Tyrod brought Bills to the playoffs last season by winning the turnover battle over and over again. That same Bills team is now spoken of as one of the worst, if not the worst, team in the league. Tyrod is an underrated talent and without Shazier he can also make some damage in the run game.
Browns have been really close to beating Pittsburgh SU in their last 3 meeting, losing by a maximum of 4 points , and it's only bad luck that they havn't done so. By eliminating bad red zone turnovers and improving their secondary they will have an ever bigger chance to do so in week 1 against a Steelers without their defensive leader.
(Edit for adding writeup)Comment -
Good luck 🍀 this seasonComment -
A few of my thought for the first game. Sorry for not writing earlier, just got my laptop back today!
Under 46.5 Eagles-Falcons: I believe that the public conception is that this is two very high scoring offenses facing off on TNF.
After Kyle Shanahan the Falcons has fallen down in PPG and Sarkisians red zone playcalling is especially worrisome (see last 4 plays in NFC Championship game). People are very high on the offensive talent of the Falcons but it's hard to ignore that the over went 5-13 in their games in 2017, giving us a 72% hit rate on under bets. Falcons have had a hard time scoring points in Philly recently, and they have had a hard time scoring points when they can't get their run game going, which will be a hard task against one of the best run D. Just look at last year where Atlanta's leading rusher averaged 62 yards in their six regular season losses, and Devonte Freeman got absolutely stuffed against Eagles. I also think that even though Falcons has a lot of weapons in the passing game, Eagles has the means to matchup. Even though they lost Patrick Robinson (to the Saints) who had a great season, they will get Sidney Jones back (who has 1st round talent). The Eagles also really like rookie Avonte Maddox, giving them a good depth with Darby and Mills as starters. Remember also that Matt Ryan has problem when pressured and Jim Schwartz will bring the pressure. Another important factor is pace and that's an area where Falcons started to slow down after Shanahan, together with red zone efficiency. These are coaching tendencies and has nothing to do with player talent. I believe that the Falcons will have a hard time getting that offense scoring points away from home against a great defense.
Eagles on the other hand is banged up as we all know, missing Wentz and Jeffrey (most notable). I would like the under still with Wentz since I expect regression in a numerous of efficiency stats. Foles has been looking awfully rusty, even with vanilla playcalling, during the preseason. With Foles as starter and the way he has looked I think that Eagles will lean against a heavy rush attack, both in order to help Foles but also to attack Falcons smaller LBs. This will lead to a slower pace. Another factor on the bet is that I believe that the public conception of the Falcons defense is low. I am very high on this young defense that really dialed it up at the end of last season, only allowing 13 points against the Rams and 15 against the Eagles. They have a good secondary and LBs that excels in pass coverage, and with their speed they matchup good against Eagles' speedy RBs. With a lack of pass catching weapons Eagles will have a hard time being as explosive as they want to, and a shootout is something that the Eagles might want to avoid.Comment -
For the Chicago Bears+8, I did som writing about them here https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...94-points.html
8 points is a hard number to cover, especially against a sneaky great defense. Bears might field one of the best defenses this year, Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds out there. With the addition of Roquan Smith and Mack, this can be a scary unit.
Packers is a great team, but I believe that they need to score 30+ points here against a for me projected top10 defense, which isn't an easy task. Bears are completely underrated and the line reflects that. I'll take the points with the Bears.Comment -
Teaser: Chicago Bears+14.5 & Ravens ML (-120)
Adding to what I believe is the most underrated team in week 1. Let's see if it will be successful.. Ravens D should give Bills a really hard time, even without Jimmy Smith.Comment -
Since Steve Sarkisian became the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons, the Under has hit in 19 of the 26 games (preseason, regular season, and playoffs).Comment -
Gl, thanks!Comment -
Patriots-6
Public conception is high on the Texans. A team that is flawed in my eyes, with a few superstars but no depth. They are banking on that Watson returns from injury still averaging 43 TDs per season. Watson had some ridiculous stats last season in his few starts, one of them were his turnover worthy plays which were high. He got lucky last season and I expect that luck to turn into more interceptions. They are also banking on players like JJ Watt to keep on playing at levels that were reached years ago. Most of all, Texans have two very weak groups. The first is the O-line which is the worst in the league. The second group is the secondary with a bunch of players that hasn't turned out the way they wanted.
A weak secondary isn't the way to beat Patriots. The passing game is critical and Patriots are superior when it comes to passing defense and passing offense. Patriots also have superior coaching and they can gameplan away from Watt with short passes to James White who I think will have a big game, racking up the RAC yards for Brady.Comment -
On fuego 🔥, cheers buddy!!A few of my thought for the first game. Sorry for not writing earlier, just got my laptop back today!
Under 46.5 Eagles-Falcons: I believe that the public conception is that this is two very high scoring offenses facing off on TNF.
After Kyle Shanahan the Falcons has fallen down in PPG and Sarkisians red zone playcalling is especially worrisome (see last 4 plays in NFC Championship game). People are very high on the offensive talent of the Falcons but it's hard to ignore that the over went 5-13 in their games in 2017, giving us a 72% hit rate on under bets. Falcons have had a hard time scoring points in Philly recently, and they have had a hard time scoring points when they can't get their run game going, which will be a hard task against one of the best run D. Just look at last year where Atlanta's leading rusher averaged 62 yards in their six regular season losses, and Devonte Freeman got absolutely stuffed against Eagles. I also think that even though Falcons has a lot of weapons in the passing game, Eagles has the means to matchup. Even though they lost Patrick Robinson (to the Saints) who had a great season, they will get Sidney Jones back (who has 1st round talent). The Eagles also really like rookie Avonte Maddox, giving them a good depth with Darby and Mills as starters. Remember also that Matt Ryan has problem when pressured and Jim Schwartz will bring the pressure. Another important factor is pace and that's an area where Falcons started to slow down after Shanahan, together with red zone efficiency. These are coaching tendencies and has nothing to do with player talent. I believe that the Falcons will have a hard time getting that offense scoring points away from home against a great defense.
Eagles on the other hand is banged up as we all know, missing Wentz and Jeffrey (most notable). I would like the under still with Wentz since I expect regression in a numerous of efficiency stats. Foles has been looking awfully rusty, even with vanilla playcalling, during the preseason. With Foles as starter and the way he has looked I think that Eagles will lean against a heavy rush attack, both in order to help Foles but also to attack Falcons smaller LBs. This will lead to a slower pace. Another factor on the bet is that I believe that the public conception of the Falcons defense is low. I am very high on this young defense that really dialed it up at the end of last season, only allowing 13 points against the Rams and 15 against the Eagles. They have a good secondary and LBs that excels in pass coverage, and with their speed they matchup good against Eagles' speedy RBs. With a lack of pass catching weapons Eagles will have a hard time being as explosive as they want to, and a shootout is something that the Eagles might want to avoid.Comment -
Thanks Tomatero!
Sarkisian didn't disappoint! Also had a good amount on Eagles ML when it got to -110 but won't count that towards my record ofc, but it was a great start to the NFL season!
Week 1: 1-0
NFL total record: 17-0Comment -
Cheers!
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Patriots-6
Browns+6
Both winners!
Week 1: 3-0
NFL total record: 19-0
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Awesome
Thanks for the winners
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Seems another winner for tonight. Btw, next week's line is available now. I admit, I can't wait for the next winner.
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Two more winners for tonight guys!
Week 1: 5-0
NFL total record: 21-0
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On fire baby!Comment -
Wanna get this one out quick.
Bears-3 (hook) 2unitsComment -
Been lurking here for awhile and following your picks man awesome stuff... Any thoughts on Balt Cinci yet?!Comment -
Week 2: Steelers-Kansas over 49.5Comment -
Anything tonight?Comment -
rollin. quality material and write ups man keep it upComment -
Looking forward to more picks this week.Comment
