Any more for sunday??
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Jaguars-Patriots under 44Comment -
Tennessee Titans team total under 19.5Comment -
Short short writeup on Titans team total.
Most importantly. Titans ran on 75% on 1st downs in the first half. This offense is really conservative and will milk the clock and give Mariota/Gabbert really tough 2nd and 3rd downs.
Secondly, injuries. Mariota is banged up and it looks like Gabbert will start. More importantly, Titans will field their 3rd string RT against JJ Watt. Watt might have a field day.
Also we have more injuries on the o-line with Lewan and Conklin out. Just doesn't add up against Watt and Clowney and Texans will get lots of edge pressure.Comment -
Lets go!!Comment -
Thanks for sharing. Good luck.
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That KC under never had a chance.Comment -
Are we going to ride that Pitt over train again this week?
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First losses of the year, and they hurt, especially the Titans team total who I replay felt good about. You won't see them score another fake punt TD all year.. You probably won't see Bortles score 4 TDs again all year either! But Jaguars coaching style has really changed to this matchup, with a higher tempo and a higher pass % when in the lead. Pass rush from Patriots were non-existing.
Still a profitable week with my big play with Bears-3 hitting
Week 2: 2-2 (+1 unit)
NFL Total record: 23-2Comment -
Thanks manComment -
Week 3
Bears-5.5Comment -
23-2!
wtfComment -
Keep rolling buddy, cheers 🍺Comment -
Bears seem underrated this year.Comment -
I surely feel that they are, even though people are starting to recognize them. This might be the last week to get a decent line on them. They have great coaches on both sides of the ball and that's the most important thing. Just look at Tampa Bay these first two weeks and what Todd Monken has been able to do.
Just waiting for the Bears rushing offense to get going!Comment -
Was too late this time. Also a bit risky even though I have been right about this Pitt defense without Shazier. But Pitt averages a TD less on the road, and if Fitzmagic just has a "average good" game, 53 points will be a lot.Comment -
Bears-3 1st half
Bears have been really impressive in the first half, outscoring opponents with 27-3. Also all 5 of their sacks against Seattle were in the first half. Adding to this, Cardinals has only scored 6 points so far which all of them were in the 4th Q in week 1.
Really like this since Bears has scored a TD on their first drive twice in a row, Matt Nagy is really good at the scripted plays. I expect Chicago to score first.Comment -
Patriots-6.5
Jaguars played a perfect game both offensively and defensively with Bortles looking like a star. Lions doesn't have the same defense at all and are lacking the pass rush that Jaguars have.
Most importantly, this is Bellichick coming of a loss. Patriots team coming of a loss are 38-13 ATS (74.5%) since 2003. I expect this line to hit 7 and more by Sunday. Patriots are undervalued here and in a great spot since losing against the Jaguars.Comment -
Giants+6
I'm getting 6 points against the Texans? I believe that the public is still high on Watson and their superstar pass rushers. In fact, Watson is practically still a rookie with super high expectations and Texans defense only have 3 sacks. Texans couldn't even beat a Gabbert-lead Titans team (also overrated since they went to the playoffs).
Giants defense is quietly performing well, has held both opponents to 20 points. Last game they went too much to Barkley in the passing game. The reason could be the fact that Dallas defense is performing really good, but this Texans secondary is something completely else, and I expect that Pat Shurmur takes advantage and targets Beckham a ton in this matchup.
6 points is a lot to cover, especially when your offense have a hard time reaching 20 points. Wouldn't be surprised if Giants won this one SU either. The passing matchups in this one favors Giants. I can't see why Texans should be 6 point favorites when Dallas were 3 point favorites. We are getting two more key numbers here in 4 and 6. Giants it is.Comment -
Good luck!Comment -
Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions
For the same reasons I loved McCaffrey last week. Falcons gives up a league high number of receptions to RBs and have done so for 3 straight years. Their best cover LB is out and Kamara is the clear cut #1 with Ingram out. Kamara has had 9 and 6 receptions in week 1 and week 2, so I believe 5.5 is a great total.Comment -
Giovani Bernard over 57.5 rush yards
Bernard will get a lot of touches this week. Panthers doesn't have the same efficient rush defense as last season.Comment -
I usually don't play player props but I found value in these two.Comment -
Thanks for sharing. Good luck.
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3-0 in the early games!
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Among the worst halves I've ever seen. Two major mistakes by Trubiskys, the -17 yards sack and the fumble which he could have easily picked up, that was a 10point swing. Bears have 179 total yards against 101 and almost the double time of possession.
Can't believe the decision to do a FG at the 2 yard line, with that D-line. Go for it.Comment -
Week 3: 3-3
Total record: 26-5
Sry guys, that was a complete no-show from the patriots who looked terrible.Comment -
Patriots need help at LB and CB so bad. Hightower looks like he's in quicksand.Comment -
Anything for Thursday?Comment -
Minnesota is in a very special spot where they are traveling over 2 timezones on a short week. The home team in this matchup are 12-1 SU and 12-1 ATS. That's why Rams-6.5 would be a spot play here, but with Talib out and Peters not expecting to play I'm starting to look at the over instead.Comment -
Passing on Rams tonight, too many points with their injuries.
This game could be a fun one to watch. I really like Kyle Rudolph tonight. Rams have a weakness and that's against opposing TEs, and they are in the bottom five in the NFL in both receptions allowed and rec yards allowed to TEs. Looking at each starting TE that have faced Rams, they have all had the most targets through 3 weeks against the Rams. Rudolph has seen his targets increase from only 2 in week 1 to 8 and 6 in the weeks after. I believe this to be a high scoring match so I think their will be some red zone opportunities for Rudolph to score here. Thielen has been getting the lions share of their targets so I think that Rams attention will be to eliminate him as much as possible in the slot, which will open up looks for Rudolph.
Trying some player props again, might be a stupid thing to go all in on Rudolph. But no-one remembers a coward.
Rudolph over 34.5 rec yards
Rudolph to score a TD at anytime at +200Comment
