NFL Regular season 2018

[eddycash]

Best I can find is Rudolph over 40.5 yards

[The J-Dizzle]

Best I can find is Rudolph over 40.5 yards

I shopped around and found 34.5, Bet365 had 38.5 which probably would be a play as well, but 34.5 gives me that small edge if he doesn't average 10 YPR. Such an advantage having multiple betting sites.

[sunnyblue88]

I shopped around and found 34.5, Bet365 had 38.5 which probably would be a play as well, but 34.5 gives me that small edge if he doesn't average 10 YPR. Such an advantage having multiple betting sites.

What odds do you have for over 34.5?

[sunnyblue88]

BTW, Cin vs Atl total moved a lot, do you have a short analysis for this? Trying to understand the reason behind. Thank you.

[The J-Dizzle]

What odds do you have for over 34.5?

-130!

[The J-Dizzle]

Took a shot with Rudolph to score a TD, he got an end zone target but Aldrick Robinson came up behind when Rudolph drawed an defensive PI. Still like him a lot as he went over on both yards and receptions. With a high scoring matchup, nothing wrong with pulling the trigger once in a while.

I will have another player prop for Sunday if the line is right.

1-1 for TNF.

[The J-Dizzle]

BTW, Cin vs Atl total moved a lot, do you have a short analysis for this? Trying to understand the reason behind. Thank you.

The reason is because of an Atlanta offense that has solved its red zone problems, going 100% in the red zone in the last two weeks. The offense is really good atm while the defense is among the worst in the league.
I'm really bummed I didn't managed to get a shot at the over 48.

[mikepep21]

That was a crazy game last night. Rams are legit.

[The J-Dizzle]

Week 4

Indianapolis Colts ML

Been waiting for this line to drop.

[mikepep21]

Thanks dawg

[sunnyblue88]

The reason is because of an Atlanta offense that has solved its red zone problems, going 100% in the red zone in the last two weeks. The offense is really good atm while the defense is among the worst in the league.
I'm really bummed I didn't managed to get a shot at the over 48.

Thank you and I am still quite surprised the total could go up all the way to 54.

[sunnyblue88]

Week 4

Indianapolis Colts ML

Been waiting for this line to drop.

Good luck.

[The J-Dizzle]

Thank you and I am still quite surprised the total could go up all the way to 54.

Yeah it's a lot! That's could be a nice middle right there if anyone got 48..

Thanks, good luck!

[The J-Dizzle]

Sterling Shepherd over 4.5 receptions

Continuing with the player props until it's not working anymore.
Several factors why I like Sterling in this spot.

- Targets. Evan Engram and Cody Lattimore is out which means more target for Shepherd, who got 23% of the targets against Texans and he has 7,5 and 7 targets in the first 3 weeks. I think that 7 targets is a nice floor for Sterling on Sunday with Giants missing receivers. In 3 weeks, he has 5,3 and 6 catches so with that amount of targets I believe that he would get at least 5 catches.

- Saints pass defense. According to football outsiders, Saints pass defense is ranked #32 in DVOA against opposing WR2s. They are the worst in the league by far in this category and giving up 7.2 passes/game to WR2s. Also, with slot corner Patrick Robinson injured this Saints pass defense will probably be even worse, with him being their highest graded CB at 66.9. If Sterling moves into the slot, he might face PJ Williams with a lousy 25.7 grade according to PFF.

With all this in mind, I have a hard time thinking that his production will reduce. Eli Manning is playing sneaky really good, and hasn't played this well since 2011. Saints secondary will be his easiest task together with Texans last week (with Sterling catching 6 out of 7 passes), this is a really good matchup for any QB. Saints attention will probably be at stopping Beckham (which they probably won't succeed with), hopefully giving Sterling with more one on one matchups against Crawley or Williams.

[eddycash]

Dang I took Houston +1 now I'm worried

[The J-Dizzle]

Trey Burton over 3.5 receptions x2

Love this one. Tampa has given up 25 receptions to TEs, most in the league. Burton has 4 receptions for each of the last two weeks after a shaky start.

[The J-Dizzle]

Dang I took Houston +1 now I'm worried

I believe many are underrating this Colts defense, they are playing hard. Believe in what you do, we can't win every bet.
Good luck buddy!

[Cincy Courier]

Watson leads the league in 33 qb hits this year and i believe i read that Colts have #4 pass rush.Their Defensive line is very good.Line now at +1 Colts and -105 ML.

[mikepep21]

Well done everyone

[JayDr3am]

get'em today j

[Cincy Courier]

Colts now at -1 ML -115...Betonline

[The J-Dizzle]

Giovani Bernard over 3.5 receptions x4 (-130)

This total is insane IMO. Sure some juice but I love it!

[eddycash]

Thanks bro good luck

[The J-Dizzle]

Good job everyone! Exactly Cincy Texans O-line is terrible, Colts defense is playing over expectations. Nice information We're stronger together!

[The J-Dizzle]

Josh Allen to score a TD at anytime +700 0.5x

Small amount on this, see value here. Only three players has had more carries inside the 10 than Josh Allen the last two weeks. As a starter he has had 8 and 10 carries, so he likes to tuck it in and run. Packers defense isn't the best yet so I think we will see some red zone looks for Bills. High risk, high reward play.

[The J-Dizzle]

Eric Ebron over 4 receptions.

Jack Doyle is injured so Ebron will see a lot of targets. His targets raised from 5 and 4 to 11 last week. Also, Houston is the worst defense in the league defending against TEs according to DVOA.

[The J-Dizzle]

This might be the last week I ever play player props

Had a lean at the under 47 in Colts-Texans game, also under 10.5 for Houston 1st half. But it never seem to work out well when I have multiple bets on the same game, so staying away. Also liking Dallas-2.5

[mikepep21]

This might be the last week I ever play player props

Had a lean at the under 47 in Colts-Texans game, also under 10.5 for Houston 1st half. But it never seem to work out well when I have multiple bets on the same game, so staying away. Also liking Dallas-2.5

That's unfortunate. I like the player props because it mixes it up rahter than your typical ATS/OU bets.

[The J-Dizzle]

That's unfortunate. I like the player props because it mixes it up rahter than your typical ATS/OU bets.

Well, it went really well so I will continue with them. When I find value of course.

3-3 this Sunday with my "player prop of the year" hitting. Even with Mark Walton coming in and stealing receptions from Bernard it still hit in the 3rd quarter.

Burton had 2 catches early but the gamescript of that game didn't really favor him. Will be interesting to see target stats after this week.

Frank Reich killed what could be a perfectly fine push with Colts ML. Thank you for that Frank.

Still not a losing weekend in the NFL

Week 4: 3-3 +2.5 units

[The J-Dizzle]

MNF Denver-Kansas over 53.5

[The J-Dizzle]

Week 5

Denver Broncos ML +200

Really don't se why the Broncos should be underdogs in this one. Darnold had a good week 1, which hyped him up. The last two weeks though he has barely 50% completions and has an 1:2 TD:INT ratio, against good defenses. Jets could have big problems reaching 15 points again. Sanders could have a big game with a nice matchup in the slot when they play 11 personel.

[sunnyblue88]

Week 5

Denver Broncos ML +200

Really don't se why the Broncos should be underdogs in this one. Darnold had a good week 1, which hyped him up. The last two weeks though he has barely 50% completions and has an 1:2 TD:INT ratio, against good defenses. Jets could have big problems reaching 15 points again. Sanders could have a big game with a nice matchup in the slot when they play 11 personel.

You mean ML +100? Good luck this week.

[The J-Dizzle]

You mean ML +100? Good luck this week.

Haha yes exactly! I've learnt decimal odds so these moneyline odds can be tricky sometimes, even though they are logical aswell

Thank you buddy!

[2daBank]

Week 5

Denver Broncos ML +200

Really don't se why the Broncos should be underdogs in this one. Darnold had a good week 1, which hyped him up. The last two weeks though he has barely 50% completions and has an 1:2 TD:INT ratio, against good defenses. Jets could have big problems reaching 15 points again. Sanders could have a big game with a nice matchup in the slot when they play 11 personel.

donks kinda ass away from home, now short week early start I expect jets defense to shit all over Keenam and don’t think Donks will have the success on ground they enjoyed last week. Den secondary can be had, I like darnold to look good this week actually. just some reasons I think jets favored (was really hoping den wouldn’t blow that game Monday or might have got jets as dogs but I’m fine at -1), at least one of us win. Gl

[The J-Dizzle]

donks kinda ass away from home, now short week early start I expect jets defense to shit all over Keenam and don’t think Donks will have the success on ground they enjoyed last week. Den secondary can be had, I like darnold to look good this week actually. just some reasons I think jets favored (was really hoping den wouldn’t blow that game Monday or might have got jets as dogs but I’m fine at -1), at least one of us win. Gl

Well, I like the matchups in the passing game, Keenum is a better QB than Darnold at the moment. I need to see that Darnold actually can play before making wager on his team, and Jets O-line will need to keep him clean in the pocket, which will be hard task.

If you take the ML we can hope for a diplomatic tie..