GL today
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4-0 this Week!! That's 8 straight wins.Comment -
Nice wins bud! Do you have anything for tonight’s game?Comment -
Haha I’ll followComment -
You’re a studComment -
Falcons TT under 26.5 -110
Short writeup since i'm on the phone. I actually like Tampa's defense at home, allowing 20.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Only 2 teams has gone over this total in Tampa and that's Steelers and Saints, and Tampa held Saints to 3 points in the first half so this defense can perform at home. Also, I can't trust Falcons offense away from home, with Matty Ice having his 7 best games this season all at home. I believe there is an overreaction to Falcons offensive performance last week and also a general belief that Tampas defense are still trash. Tampa's defense also allows 15 ppg more away from home. I believe Atlanta could reach 20-23 points in this one.Comment -
Mayfield under 241.5 pass yards -110
Baker has had success after Hue but I believe it has something to do with opposing pass defenses. He hasn't faced a single pass defense in the top half when it comes to pass efficiency. The only one was @ Denver who were ranked #5 but was without Chris Harris that game, Baker only managed 188 yards that game. This game is similar with an away game but this against an even better pass defense, with Ravens #3 ranked pass D when it comes to efficiency. Ravens has held a lot of passers to low numbers after their bye week and they are limiting opposing offenses plays with 10.9 less plays after the bye if you exclude the game against Kansas who also went to OT. Ravens D has held explosive pass offenses like Tampa and Atlanta to under 200 yards passing and MVP Mahomes is the only one that has gotten over this total.Comment -
James Conner over 70.5 rush yards -115Comment -
What a terrible ending..
Tampa shut down Atlanta completely in the 1st half but just like against the Saints the defense was terrible in one quarter.
Mayfield averaged about 20 yards/completion... seems about right.
I would bet Conner over 70.5 every day of the week against Bengals. He needed 6 more yards and had the entire 4th Q to do so. Expected way better gamescript as well!! This should have been an easy winner
Let's forget last week and see if we have a winner in the WC round.
Deshaun Watson over 32.5 rush yards -115
Really nice total, would bet this one up to 36-37. The total seems based on his season average, but the last two weeks he has been going for 49 and 66 yards on 8 and 13 carries. Indy's run D and pass rush will create "opportunities" for Watson to move outside the pocket, and in a playoff game I expect that he will grab every extra yard he can get. I believe Watson will go for over 40 rush yards in a trend where the Texans seems to lean more on Watson's running game again.Comment -
WC Round
Indianapolis Colts+2 -110Comment -
Luck faces a DC that he has had huge success against, especially this season with 464 and 399 passing yards in 2018 against the Texans. I believe this will be a big advantage in what I believe will be a high passing attempt matchup because of the really good run defense of both teams. What we're not talking about is that Watson is without Thomas and Fuller, and we have seen what this offense has been without Fuller. Watson's YPA goes from 9.0 to 7.5 YPA without Fuller.
Texans is believed to have an extremely strong pass rush with Watt and Clowney but is only average when it comes to sack rate. I believe that the Colts will minimize Watt's and Clowney's impact with their fast pass attack and #1 sack rate O-line. I believe Luck will have the most clean pockets and that will decide this game together with the advantage that the Colts have in the red zone, both offensively and defensively.Comment -
WE'RE BACK ON TRACK 2-0
10-3 last 13.Comment -
Mark Andrews Over 22.5 rec yards -115
Low total. Mark's rec totals last 3 weeks are 54, 83 and 31 and he has performed really well after Lamar was named the starting QB. Big play threat, can hit this total with 1 reception. I also think the gamescript will create "opportunities" for Lamar to throw more this time.Comment -
We cash in the first one! 31 yards!
Nick Foles under 249.5 passing yards -115Comment -
Bears has really slowed QBs downed this season, and there are just a few QBs all season that have went over this total, most recently Rodgers with 279. Otherwise no other than Osweiler has gone way over (380 yards with overtime play). Both Goff and Cousins was really limited with both well below 200 yards. FS Jackson is active which will be a boost for Bears defense who loves playing at home.Comment -
Amari Cooper under 70.5 receiving yards. Cooper has 75 yards in week 10 away from home (against a then lowly Eagles secondary) but after that he has 36,32 and 31 rec yards away from home. I believe his 106 yards performance last week at home bumped up this total a little, before that he only had 20 yards against Tampa Bay in week 16.
But I wouldn't play the under @ home though. But away from home and against both Talib and Peters, two CBs he has struggled a lot against as a Raider. I also believe Dallas might have the slowest pace this weekend, Not a good recipe to hit 71 yards on the road. Under 70.5 it is at -115.Comment -
Colts team total over 25.5
Andrew Luck over 39.5 pass attempts
A really good number for the Colts against this Kansas defense. I believe the gamescript will be good for both these bets. Colts hasn't face this type of offense since week 1 & 5 (Bengals & Patriots) in which Luck threw 53 & 59 times. Colts has faced a cupcake schedule the second half of the season and this is the toughest game the whole season for them against Kansas.Comment -
Jared Goff under 281.5 passing yards -115
This total seems too high and based on a season average. Goff's stats hasn't been the same after the loss of Cooper Kupp. He has only hit over this total once after the bye week. I believe in a low pace especially from the Cowboys and the Cowboys defense has performed well the past few weeks and succeded really well in shutting down Brees. And with a -7 spread the gamescript could turn out to be good for this under aswell.Comment -
2-2 evening. Couldn't believe my eyes when Colts continued to run the ball. I believe they ran the ball 5-6 times on the last two drives. Luck should have had 45-50 pass attempts.
On to the next.
Golden Tate over 3.5 receptions -125
One of my favorite mismatch this sunday. Saints slot CB PJ Williams has a tough matchup against Tate who ran 24 routes last week from the slot with 8 targets. Tate has gone over this total in 6 of the 8 last games, but I believe he will have a bigger role in the playoffs, just like we saw last week.
Saints has a pass funneling defense with their run defense which could create extra opportunities for Tate. If he can reach 25 routes from the slot, i believe he will get open enough to get some looks from Foles. This is a good looking total set at 3.5.Comment -
Michael Thomas over 7.5 receptions -115
Robert Woods over 5.5 receptions -115Comment -
GL today JDComment -
Michael Thomas will be force-fed in this one with Keith Kirkwood out. And with Kirkwood out I believe he will slide into the slot and escape Talib. Thomas is by far the best route runner on this offense and I believe 10 targets is his floor tonight.
Woods has an amazing matchup with Saints CB PJ Williams tonight. Woods has just like Thomas been moved into the slot with Cooper Kupp out, and played 88% of his routes from the slot last week. Williams is the weakest link of the Saints defense and Woods is playing at an elite level this season, creating 3 yards of separation when he catches the ball. Saints also has a pass funneling defense. With Rankins out Goff gets a little more time in the pocket to find his receivers. Gamescript could also help this go over. Woods floor should be 7 targets with big upside. Both of his totals (rec and rec yards) are pure season averages and in my mind it doesn't reflect his position on the field and matchup.Comment -
Chiefs-3Comment -
I believe that Kansas is the better team, that's why they have home field tonight. I think they should be -4. The home/road splits are insane and can't be ignored. Chiefs has a big home field advantage and the better passing offense and I believe that will be the difference in this cold weather against a Pats defense which is ranked #2 at home and #31 away from home according to FO.Comment -
Damien Williams over 95.5 rush+rec yards -115Comment -
Kansas has speed. Patriots linebackers hasn't. Reid loves to use his RBs as dual-threats and it's harder to tackle when it's cold. Williams can either kill their LBs with speed on passing routes or with power if they go into dime formations. I believe Patriots will keep everything in front of them tonight which I hope will give Williams some easy yards, which Patriots happily will forfeit.
I also believe the gamescript will be positive for this one either way.Comment -
59-37 on the year for a 61% record.Comment -
Damn. Mahomes missing an easy 20 yards TD pass to Williams.Comment -
Curious- have you had similar success in the past? Great job this year btw!Comment -
NFL Pro Bowl Under 56
These games have been trending down after the new rules. 56 is a spot where I want to take the under, I have a hard time seeing that both teams scores 30.Comment -
First of all, thanks buddy! It has been a good year.
And yes but I've never done it like this, for everyone to see. The only spreadsheet I can find is for 8 years ago, I went 59% then. I'm just trying to learn from every loss, and I also like to find futures that other perhaps doesn't even think (my biggest play of the year was Bears over 294 points for example). Hopefully it will go just as good next season.
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60-38 (61%) on the year, disappointing playoffs so far.Comment -
Easy winner with the under 56!
61-38Comment
