NFL AWARDS 
Just won with Matt Nagy as COTY at +2500, great day!
Just won with Matt Nagy as COTY at +2500, great day!
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And there we have another winner, Mahomes MVP at +800!
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Super Bowl LIII
Under 28 1st half
Remember 28 is a new key number. If you have 27.5 I would wait and see of it bounces back.Comment -
Brandin Cooks Under 69.5 rec yards +105
I could get this total at 72.5 but I like him to go under 70 so I took the clear better value with the odds here. Hopefully it won't come back to haunt me.
I believe that the Patriots will do what they can to take Cooks and Woods out of the equation. Patriots did a great job eliminating Tyreek Hill who only got 3 targets. I believe we will see something similar here with Gilmore guarding Woods and Cooks being double teamed, taking away the big plays for Rams. Cooks doesn't produce the same without Kupp, and he has only gone over this total once in the last 7 weeks. That one time was against Saints two weeks ago which might have bumped up his total for the SB, which means getting even more value with the under. So we have what I believe 1. A favorable matchup for the under 2. Lesser post-Kupp production and 3. value with recency bias after his last performance.
From a narrative standpoint (for what it's worth), I can't believe the Patriots want Cooks to beat them after trading him away.
Under 5.5 is also an option but it's really juiced at my bookie. Going after the value long term.Comment -
JD thanks for posting all year, I appreciate the time you take to do this. Your insight has really helped my decision making this season!Comment -
Gerald Everett over 23.5 rec yards -110
The best way to attack the Pats defense isn't with 11 personnel but with 12 personnel, since the Pats D are ranked #3 against 11 and #26 against 12 personnel in the passing game. I believe that McVay will be aware of this, which means more opportunities for Gerald Everett. Everett is the better pass catching TE that the Rams have. Everett played 46 snaps (2nd highest of the season) against the Saints and 27 of those were pass routes. That resulted in 4 targets for 2 catches and 50 yards. I believe that the Rams will continue their transition from being mostly only a 11 personnel offense to implement even more 12 personnel. LA Rams also has 1.8 higher YPA from 12 personnel, so it makes sense for the offense to employ more 12 personnel and involve Everett more.
Everett has gone over this total 4 times the last 6 weeks. Everett also has that big play abiilty along with more possession skills. So this could go over with just 1 receptions if we're lucky.Comment -
JD quick question. My 1st half play is has gone down to 27, is that still worthy of playing on the under?
Are you taking a side? Just curious.
Thanks!Comment -
No since 28 is a new key number, I would not recommend taking anything under 28.
With Cooper Kupp, Rams ML would be my play. Right now I would recommend Rams+3 If anything, Patriots are overvalued because of recency bias IMO. Everyone thinks this is an easy win for Pats.Comment -
James White under 52.5 receiving yards -115Comment -
I like White under 6.5 or 6 receptions the most, but I only have 5.5. So I choose the total. Rams linebackers are pretty much safeties so they are well equipped to defend these kind of RBs. They allowed an average of about 30 yards/game during the season to opposing RBs. White's totals are inflated and I'm going against the public here. White has only gone over this total twice the last 10 games.Comment -
Great season! Do you wager on other sports too? If not see you next year, I hope!Comment -
Finishing 2-2 with my Super Bowl bets. Too bad about that Patrick Chung injury that made the Pats switch Gilmore to shadow Cooks. Before that, Cooks only had 17 yards at halftime and 30 by the 3rd quarter. But Cooks had the better of that matchup and Goff started to force feed Cooks, eventually going over with ease after being invisible for a half.
NFL TOTAL RECORD
64-40 for 61.5%
This includes:
2-1 record for my 2 unit plays
1-0 record for my 4 unit play
2-0 record for my 2unit teasers
And of course my 6 unit play with Chicago Bears over 294 points as I've posted in a separate thread!
Just wanted to take a moment and say thank you to everyone who has commented or looked into my thread. Thank you for all the kind words!! I appreciate it so much! Hopefully you've made some money following this thread.
Next up is the NFL Draft which I certainly look forward too!Comment -
Cheers!Comment
