NFL Picks & More

FUqer · 09-19-17, 09:23 PM

Broncos at Bills

Broncos 4-1 SUATS L5 times they started 2-0.
Broncos 1-5 SUATS L6 on the Road vs the AFC East.
Broncos 2-11 SU & 0-13 ATS on turf vs a non-divisional opponent that is averaging 1.25 turnovers or less per game and they are off a home game, Over is 11-2.

Bills 4-0 ATS L4 vs the Broncos, 6-1 L7.
Bills 0-3 SUATS last season at Home after a Road Loss, but 11-1 ATS the previous 4 years.
Bills 13-6 ATS as a Home Dog since 2011, 8-3 SUATS as Home Dog of 3 or less since 2011.
Bills 9-3 ATS as a Home Dog in a non Division game since 2010, 8-4 SU.
Bills 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS L7 games vs the AFC West.

Under 10-3 L13 when the Broncos are Road Favorites.
Under 6-1 L7 when Broncos are Favorites of -3 or less.
Under is 7-1 L8 in Bronco games when they are Favorites and the total is 40 or less.
Broncos are 16-0 OU as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent that had less than 26:15 minutes of possession time in their last game.
Bills are 8-1 OU L9 at Home.
This is the first time the total in a Bills Home game has been 40 or less since Week 11 2013.

Key Injuries:

Bills - LT Cordy Glenn
Broncos - LT Garett Bolles

The Broncos are the better team, but the opening line of -1 was pretty suspect. There's no point is discussing a side
in this game, I'm not taking the Broncos in this situation and too much would have to go right for the Bills to win.
The Under seems tempting with both LT's being out and the Bills offense being horrible so far, but I don't think the
Broncos defense will be as motivated as the were against the Cowboys and the Bills have to be sick of hearing about
their offensive problems, so they may have a few tricks up their sleeves to help get things going, so I could see it also going over the low total number.

FUqer · 09-19-17, 10:03 PM

Texans at Patriots

Patriots 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS vs the Texans, Over 7-2.
Patriots 18-0 ATS at home vs a non-divisional opponent that has allowed a season-to-date average third down conversion percentage of less than 40.25%
Patriots 19-0 SUATS on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush.
Patriots are exactly 60% ATS (168-112-8) since Oct 14th, 2001.
Patriots 27-10-1 ATS L38 at Home, Over is 24-14.
Patriots 13-3-1 ATS L17 as a Favorite.
Patriots 17-0 SU L17 vs the AFC South, 12-3 ATS L15.
Patriots 6-0 ATS L6 as a Home Favorite of double digits, 44-3 SU L47.

Texans 0-11 ATS in franchise history as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they
had at least two more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Texans 0-11 SUATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they rushed for 150-plus yards.
Texans 12-24-1 L37 as a Dog, 2-8 L10.
Texans 3-7 ATS L10 vs the AFC East, 2-8 SU.
Texans 1-4 SUATS L5 on the Road after a Road win.

Key Injuries:

Texans - CB Johnathan Joseph

Patriots - TE Rob Gronkowski
Patriots - LB Donte Hightower

Not many sane people like to give up that many points in the NFL too much but I want to take a deeper look at the
Patriots as a possible play here. Johnathan Joseph's injury isn't going to help stop Brady and the Patriots who will be
looking to atone for their week 1 loss at Home and Hightower should be back. I think Gronk will play and be fine and
I'm not even convinced it was a groin injury as I could of swore I read his lips on the sidelines saying he was seeing
stars, but I could be wrong, I don't think they will need him too much this game anyway.

2daBank · 09-19-17, 10:52 PM

Hoody defenses historically a nightmare for rookie qbs., pretty low total for a pats game, I understand it but don't ya gotta expect pats to have great field position majority of the night and run a ton of plays?

As good as Houston d is that a big ask if those circumstances play out. Feel like gotta pretty much write pats down for 30ish.

Don't expect a ton from Houston but Watson will be in come from behind mode all 2nd half you would think, with his legs I'd think he can get them down the field a few times plus probably very strong chance he turns it over either for a score or directly leading to one.. kinda looking at over but not sure.

FUqer · 09-19-17, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Hoody defenses historically a nightmare for rookie qbs., pretty low total for a pats game, I understand it but don't ya gotta expect pats to have great field position majority of the night and run a ton of plays?

As good as Houston d is that a big ask if those circumstances play out. Feel like gotta pretty much write pats down for 30ish.

Don't expect a ton from Houston but Watson will be in come from behind mode all 2nd half you would think, with his legs I'd think he can get them down the field a few times plus probably very strong chance he turns it over either for a score or directly leading to one.. kinda looking at over but not sure.

Didn't even really look at the total until you said something, but yeah it does seem low, with Joseph being injured and the Pats fast pace offense and the Pats defense isn't anything special. Fuller also might be back which would give Watson a lil more speed at WR.

FUqer · 09-20-17, 12:57 PM

Saints at Panthers

Saints are 1-4 SU L5 vs the Panthers but 4-1 ATS, Over is 4-1.
Saints 3-0 ATS L3 in Carolina.
Last 3 games were decided by 3 points in series.
Saints 8-2 ATS L10 as a Road Dog, 4-6 SU, 5-1 ATS L6 vs their Division.
Saints 2-9 OU L11 as a Division Road Dog.
Saints 14-2-1 ATS L17 as a Division Road Dog of 5 or more.
Saints 8-2 ATS after losing their previous two games.
Saints 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU L8 after starting the season 0-2.
Saints 6-1 ATS L7 on grass.
Saints 13-0 ATS & 9-4 SU since 2006 when facing an undefeated team after week 1.
Saints fly out to London next week, teams are 11-21-2 ATS in that spot.

Panthers 3-8 ATS L11 as a Home Favorite after a Home Win.
Panthers 2-7 ATS L9 Home Division games, Under 7-2.
Panthers 14-2 SU L16 as a Home Favorite in a Division game, 11-5 ATS
Panthers 10-6 ATS since 2011 as a Home Favorite of 5 or more.
Panthers 8-2 ATS L10 as a Home Favorite of 5 or more vs their Division, 9-1 SU.
Panthers 2-7 ATS L9 Week 3 games.

Key Injuries:

Saints - T Zach Strief
Saints - T Terron Armstead

Panthers - TE Greg Olsen

This seems like too many points for the Panthers to be giving here with how ineffective Cam Newton has been
throwing the ball. I said last week that I don't trust he is healthy and he didn't prove otherwise against the Bills. But
if there is one defense that he could get going against, it's the Saints who are bad as it is but also have some health
concerns at DB, but if Cam isn't healthy it won't matter much. The Saints haven't been exactly lighting it up on
offense either and one thing that I don't like about the Saints besides their defense, is that they are dinged up at
the OT position and it's been a big factor, especially with Zach Strief hurt. Brees already lost his deep threat in Cook
and has Snead suspended, but he hasn't got any time to look downfield with his OL injuries. And I'm not sure what
Sean Payton was doing at times against the Patriots but he had me scratching my head a few times. I need to see
what the status of those OL for the Saints will be before I can make a final decision.

FUqer · 09-20-17, 02:01 PM

Falcons at Lions

Falcons 17-4 OU L21.
team=Falcons and date>=20160911

15-6-0 (8.76, 71.4%)
13-8-0 (6.31, 61.9%)	avg line: -2.5	+6: 18-3-0 (85.7%)	-6: 12-9-0 (57.1%)	+10: 21-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 10-10-1 (50.0%)
17-4-0 (7.33, 81.0%)	avg total: 51.0	+6: 11-10-0 (52.4%)	-6: 18-2-1 (90.0%)	+10: 7-14-0 (33.3%)	-10: 21-0-0 (100.0%)

Falcons 12-2 OU L14 as a Favorite.
team=Falcons and F and date>=20160911

11-3-0 (11.36, 78.6%)
8-6-0 (6.00, 57.1%)	avg line: -5.4	+6: 12-2-0 (85.7%)	-6: 8-6-0 (57.1%)	+10: 14-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 6-7-1 (46.2%)
12-2-0 (6.50, 85.7%)	avg total: 51.7	+6: 8-6-0 (57.1%)	-6: 13-1-0 (92.9%)	+10: 4-10-0 (28.6%)	-10: 14-0-0 (100.0%)

Falcons 8-2 SUATS L10 on the Road.
team=Falcons and A and date>=20151220

8-2-0 (8.80, 80.0%)
8-2-0 (8.75, 80.0%)	avg line: -0.1	+6: 9-1-0 (90.0%)	-6: 7-3-0 (70.0%)	+10: 10-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 6-4-0 (60.0%)

Falcons 4-0 SU L4 vs the NFC North, 2-2 ATS.
team=Falcons and o:division=NFC North and date>=20161030

4-0-0 (10.25, 100.0%)
2-2-0 (5.62, 50.0%)	avg line: -4.6	+6: 4-0-0 (100.0%)	-6: 2-2-0 (50.0%)	+10: 4-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 1-3-0 (25.0%)
3-1-0 (2.62, 75.0%)	avg total: 54.1	+6: 1-3-0 (25.0%)	-6: 3-1-0 (75.0%)	+10: 1-3-0 (25.0%)	-10: 4-0-0 (100.0%)

Falcons 5-1 ATS L6on the Road after a Home win.
team=Falcons and A and p:HW and date>=20141208

5-1-0 (5.83, 83.3%)

avg line: 1.3

+6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)

-6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)

+10: 5-1-0 (83.3%)

-10: 3-3-0 (50.0%)

Falcons 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS since 2015 on the Road vs a non Divisional opponent.
team=Falcons and A and NDIV and season>=2015

8-3-0 (5.45, 72.7%)
7-4-0 (4.82, 63.6%)	avg line: -0.6	+6: 9-2-0 (81.8%)	-6: 6-5-0 (54.5%)	+10: 11-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 3-8-0 (27.3%)

Falcons 5-1 SUATS against an undefeated team after Week 1 since 2015.
team=Falcons and o:losses=0 and week>=2 and season>=2015

5-1-0 (0.83, 83.3%)
5-1-0 (3.92, 83.3%)	avg line: 3.1	+6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)	-6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)	+10: 5-1-0 (83.3%)	-10: 3-3-0 (50.0%)

Lions 5-0 OU L5 as a Home Dog.
team=Lions and H and D and date>=20151011

5-0-0 (6.30, 100.0%)

avg total: 47.5

+6: 2-3-0 (40.0%)

-6: 5-0-0 (100.0%)

+10: 1-4-0 (20.0%)

-10: 5-0-0 (100.0%)

Lions 3-10 OU L13 games.
team=Lions and date>=20161023

3-10-0 (-5.31, 23.1%)

avg total: 45.7

+6: 2-11-0 (15.4%)

-6: 6-7-0 (46.2%)

+10: 1-12-0 (7.7%)

-10: 7-6-0 (53.8%)

Lions 3-13 OU since 2014 after back to back wins.
team=Lions and p:W and pp:W and season>=2014

3-13-0 (-7.56, 18.8%)

avg total: 44.9

+6: 1-15-0 (6.2%)

-6: 6-10-0 (37.5%)

+10: 1-15-0 (6.2%)

-10: 7-9-0 (43.8%)

Lions 0-4 ATS L4 vs the Falcons.
team=Lions and o:team=Falcons and season>=2008

1-3-0 (-8.00, 25.0%)
0-4-0 (-9.38, 0.0%)	avg line: -1.4	+6: 1-3-0 (25.0%)	-6: 0-4-0 (0.0%)	+10: 2-2-0 (50.0%)	-10: 0-4-0 (0.0%)
1-3-0 (0.25, 25.0%)	avg total: 46.2	+6: 1-3-0 (25.0%)	-6: 3-1-0 (75.0%)	+10: 1-3-0 (25.0%)	-10: 4-0-0 (100.0%)

Under 6-0 L6 in Detroit vs the Falcons.
team=Lions and H and o:team=Falcons and season>=1998

0-6-0 (-6.92, 0.0%)

avg total: 45.2

+6: 0-6-0 (0.0%)

-6: 3-3-0 (50.0%)

+10: 0-6-0 (0.0%)

-10: 5-1-0 (83.3%)

Lions 5-0 SU L5 vs the NFC West, 3-2 ATS.
team=Lions and o:division=NFC South and date>=20141019

5-0-0 (8.40, 100.0%)
3-2-0 (7.00, 60.0%)	avg line: -1.4	+6: 5-0-0 (100.0%)	-6: 3-2-0 (60.0%)	+10: 5-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 2-3-0 (40.0%)

Lions 5-29 SU and 14-20 ATS since 2007 as a Home Dog.
team=Lions and HD and season>=2007

5-29-0 (-10.00, 14.7%)
14-20-0 (-4.24, 41.2%)	avg line: 5.8	+6: 20-13-1 (60.6%)	-6: 5-27-2 (15.6%)	+10: 24-9-1 (72.7%)	-10: 4-30-0 (11.8%)
20-13-1 (3.19, 60.6%)	avg total: 46.4	+6: 13-21-0 (38.2%)	-6: 28-6-0 (82.4%)	+10: 10-24-0 (29.4%)	-10: 31-3-0 (91.2%)

Lions 22-11 SU and 19-12-2 ATS at Home after a win on the Road as a Dog, 9-1 SU L10 and 8-2 ATS.
team=Lions and H and p:AW and p:AD

22-11-0 (5.39, 66.7%)
19-12-2 (2.62, 61.3%)	avg line: -2.8	+6: 24-9-0 (72.7%)	-6: 12-21-0 (36.4%)	+10: 28-5-0 (84.8%)	-10: 10-23-0 (30.3%)

Lions 5-0 SUATS L5 as a Home Dog after a win on the Road as a Dog.
team=Lions and HD and p:AW and p:AD and date>=19940102

5-0-0 (8.60, 100.0%)
5-0-0 (11.90, 100.0%)	avg line: 3.3	+6: 5-0-0 (100.0%)	-6: 4-1-0 (80.0%)	+10: 5-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 4-1-0 (80.0%)

Lions 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS L10 at Home vs a non Divisional Opponent.
team=Lions and H and NDIV and date>=20151011

8-2-0 (5.10, 80.0%)
7-2-1 (3.20, 77.8%)	avg line: -1.9	+6: 8-2-0 (80.0%)	-6: 2-8-0 (20.0%)	+10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)	-10: 2-8-0 (20.0%)

Key Injuries:

Falcons - RT Ryan Schraeder

I'm somewhat interested in the Home Dog in this one. Atlanta has to be feeling pretty good about themselves after
last week and they have two very winnable games coming up at Home next, so I see this as the best chance for
them to take a loss, especially is their RT is gonna be out. The Lions defense aren't worldbeaters but I think they are
under-rated and have some young guys who are only going to get better. And I dunno about you but I like Cooter,
Stafford has cut down a lot on his INTS since he arrived and has made better overall decisions. If they can continue
to run the ball and keep defenses off balance I like this Lion team. The Falcons are the better and more experienced
team but the Lions may sneak this one out and if nothing else maybe lose by 3.

FUqer · 09-21-17, 11:13 AM

Giants at Eagles

Giants 0-3 SUATS since 2014 as a Road Dog after a Home Loss.
team=Giants and p:HL and AD and season>=2014

0-3-0 (-22.33, 0.0%)
0-3-0 (-15.50, 0.0%)	avg line: 6.8	+6: 0-3-0 (0.0%)	-6: 0-3-0 (0.0%)	+10: 1-2-0 (33.3%)	-10: 0-3-0 (0.0%)

Giants 3-6 ATS L9 Division Road games.
team=Giants and A and DIV and date>=20141012

2-7-0 (-8.33, 22.2%)
3-6-0 (-5.11, 33.3%)	avg line: 3.2	+6: 5-4-0 (55.6%)	-6: 1-8-0 (11.1%)	+10: 6-3-0 (66.7%)	-10: 1-8-0 (11.1%)

Giants 6-3 ATS L9 when Dogs of more than 5.
team=Giants and D and line>=5 and date>=20141221

6-3-0 (1.72, 66.7%)

avg line: 6.5

+6: 7-2-0 (77.8%)

-6: 3-5-1 (37.5%)

+10: 7-2-0 (77.8%)

-10: 3-6-0 (33.3%)

Giants started 0-2 in 2015 and 2014 and won their 3rd game both years.

Giants 5-14 OU L19 games.
team=Giants and date>=20160911

5-14-0 (-8.79, 26.3%)

avg total: 45.7

+6: 2-16-1 (11.1%)

-6: 6-12-1 (33.3%)

+10: 0-19-0 (0.0%)

-10: 12-7-0 (63.2%)

23.4	83.1	37.5	240.9	23.7	1.6	3.0	6.0	3.8	4.9	17.7
25.5	92.6	38.4	249.0	22.8	1.4	5.2	6.1	3.2	4.8	19.2

Giants 1-6 OU L7 games as a Dog.
team=Giants and D and date>=20161003

1-6-0 (-13.79, 14.3%)

avg total: 46.6

+6: 0-7-0 (0.0%)

-6: 1-6-0 (14.3%)

+10: 0-7-0 (0.0%)

-10: 3-4-0 (42.9%)

21.3	76.6	36.6	206.6	21.9	1.6	0.9	2.7	4.3	4.3	12.1
27.3	102.6	38.4	255.0	23.0	1.4	4.1	7.6	3.3	5.7	20.7

Giants 2-7 OU L9 games on the Road.
team=Giants and A and date>=20160911

2-7-0 (-8.94, 22.2%)

avg total: 46.2

+6: 0-9-0 (0.0%)

-6: 2-6-1 (25.0%)

+10: 0-9-0 (0.0%)

-10: 6-3-0 (66.7%)

21.3	86.0	38.4	225.6	23.1	1.4	1.0	6.2	2.6	5.9	15.7
27.4	98.6	38.4	257.0	23.1	1.2	4.3	8.0	3.3	5.9	21.6

Eagles 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS L18 vs the Giants, 5-3 ATS L8 at Home, Under is 6-2 L8 in Philly in series.
team=Eagles and o:team=Giants and date>=20081207

14-4-0 (5.17, 77.8%)
13-5-0 (5.64, 72.2%)	avg line: 0.5	+6: 15-3-0 (83.3%)	-6: 11-6-1 (64.7%)	+10: 15-3-0 (83.3%)	-10: 7-11-0 (38.9%)

The Eagles 0-13 ATS and 1-12 SU since 2007 at home vs a divisional opponent when they are off a loss in which
they committed at least two turnovers.
team = Eagles and H and DIV and p:L and 2 <= p:TO and season >= 2007

1-12-0 (-7.62, 7.7%)
0-13-0 (-10.31, 0.0%)	avg line: -2.7	+6: 4-8-1 (33.3%)	-6: 0-13-0 (0.0%)	+10: 5-8-0 (38.5%)	-10: 0-13-0 (0.0%)

Eagles 6-2 SUATS last season at Home, Under 6-2.
team=Eagles and H and season=2016

6-2-0 (8.75, 75.0%)
6-2-0 (7.88, 75.0%)	avg line: -0.9	+6: 7-1-0 (87.5%)	-6: 5-3-0 (62.5%)	+10: 7-1-0 (87.5%)	-10: 3-5-0 (37.5%)
2-6-0 (-5.00, 25.0%)	avg total: 44.8	+6: 0-8-0 (0.0%)	-6: 4-4-0 (50.0%)	+10: 0-8-0 (0.0%)	-10: 8-0-0 (100.0%)

Eagles 2-4 SUATS L6 when favored by more than 5.
team=Eagles and F and line<=-5 and date>=20141220

2-4-0 (-1.00, 33.3%)
2-4-0 (-7.08, 33.3%)	avg line: -6.1	+6: 2-4-0 (33.3%)	-6: 2-4-0 (33.3%)	+10: 3-3-0 (50.0%)	-10: 1-5-0 (16.7%)

Eagles 14-0 OU off a loss in which they had more third downs made than punts.
team = Eagles and p:L and p:3DM > p

unts and date >= 20131006

14-0-0 (7.21, 100.0%)

avg total: 47.9

+6: 7-7-0 (50.0%)

-6: 14-0-0 (100.0%)

+10: 5-9-0 (35.7%)

-10: 14-0-0 (100.0%)

30.3	135.4	38.7	257.4	25.3	1.4	6.9	7.7	3.9	9.6	28.5
25.7	103.6	38.1	282.7	22.5	1.6	6.5	7.4	7.4	5.3	26.6

Eagles 0-4 OU L4 as a Home Favorite.
team=Eagles and HF and date>=20160911

0-4-0 (-5.88, 0.0%)

avg total: 45.4

+6: 0-4-0 (0.0%)

-6: 2-2-0 (50.0%)

+10: 0-4-0 (0.0%)

-10: 4-0-0 (100.0%)

30.0	134.0	38.0	233.5	24.5	0.5	6.0	4.0	5.5	7.8	23.2
20.8	77.8	31.8	215.5	19.0	1.0	1.8	7.5	3.0	4.0	16.2

The Road team has won 13 out of the last 20 meetings.

Key Injuries:

Giants - WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Giants - TE Evan Engram
Giants - LB BJ Goodson
Giants - CB Janoris Jenkins

Eagles - CB Ronald Darby

A lot of people were disappointed that this spread went from the early line of -3 to -6, myself included. The Giants have a fierce pass rush and some good players in the secondary but they have a lot of new parts back there and may need some more time to gel and the injuries aren't helping and neither is the offense not being able to sustain drives and keep them off the field, those pass rushers need some rest between series. Those injured Giants may play this week but how effective are they going to be, I still think OBJ won't be himself for at least another week or two and if the Giants don't figure out how to fix their OL situation it's going to be hard for Manning to find time to throw the ball downfield and if their TE Engram can't play, that will be a big loss for them. The Eagles could of and prolly should of beat the Chiefs in arrowhead, but Wentz and his tipped passes at the line are a problem for him and that Hunt long run killed them, but the Giants don't have any run game at all. I'm not sure how the Giants will be able to stay in this one, but this is the NFL and it is a Division game where the Road team has had some success and the line is a little high so I will prolly pass, but it may be a good teaser option.

FUqer · 09-21-17, 01:39 PM

Thursday Plays 9/21

¤ 49ers +3 -108 (Heritage)

¤ Teaser: (49ers +9) (Rams/49ers Over 33) -120
____________________________

The Underdog has won both Thursday games this year after not doing good last year and I'm hoping the winning trend will continue tonight going against the public who had a decent week last week. The Rams are the better team but they seem to have trouble against the 49ers and got shutout in San Fran 28-0 last year. I think the coaching change in the Rams can erase some of that but I have to think there might be something else to it with these division foes. The 49ers could just having some good match-ups that they know how to exploit vs the Rams and some of could be psychological at this point. I also seen how the Redskins were gashing that Rams defense on the ground and I think Hyde can do even better. The 49ers and Hoyer have also faced two tougher defenses to start the season and Hoyer might actually have some success hooking up with Garcon. The 49ers are more familiar with Gurly and may be able to keep him in check and force Goff to do more and it just depends if the Goff from Week 1 or Week 2 shows up. As I mentioned in my earlier preview, I expect the Rams to take advantages of some things on offense as well, so I took the Over in a teaser and going against the public in a prime time televised game is never a bad option, especially with points at Home. GLA!

FUqer · 09-21-17, 06:47 PM

I don't get it, some people have been doing this shit for a long time, way longer than I have been and they are dumb as rocks. I'm not calling out anyone specifically, because there are more than one for sure, but it actually makes me laugh sometimes and I can be as big dick about some of the ignorance on here as anyone but I bite my tongue because it's just not worth it. I could give 2 shits about the SBR groupies, my people are the lurkers who are just looking for another opinion to help with their decisions. I don't go outside my own thread much, but from now on I'm making it a rule to never post in anyone's thread again. I'm here to help people and share info, not make friends.

FUqer · 09-21-17, 10:42 PM

How bout dat! hahaha

FUqer · 09-21-17, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by Jerm3085

Two overturned calls on Garcon catches that refs originally called incomplete,refs were trying! Then no defensive pass interference in the end zone on Celek when defender had him in an arm bar and took him to the ground before ball got there, but they still got the TD...and worst of all, the phantom offensive pass interference call on Taylor which would have given 9ers first down and momentum for a game winning field goal, but instead puts them at a long 3rd and 20...refs knew what they were doing, Vegas doesn't have to pay out 9ers ML bets or Rams ATS wagers, probably did very well with all the live in game action they got on Rams as well. Welcome to the National Fixed League, this $h!t always seems to happen blatantly during prime time games. If you can't see it you are just naive. Sports entertainment at its finest, what do you think is written down in these players' huge multi million dollar contracts they sign?

This poster gets it, except for the contract part seems a little far fetched and the people who say it's just a conspiracy will ignore all other evidence and knit pick irrelevant things like that out and harp on it. And one of the over turned catches I believe was by Goodwin, but I also noticed the other calls that this poster mentioned and it's funny how they went against the 49ers. Refs just make bad calls and miss some calls from time to time without any intention, it is a hard job, but in a lot of cases it's very suspect, they have a lot of control and the rule book is forever expanding and that's why I prefer to be on the other side of those in a PT game.

I thought there would be some points scored but these defenses were horrible, I was praying for just one stop by the 49ers for my teaser and then finally got one and then got a turnover to even cover the spread, and I was so glad they didn't get that 2 pt conversion. Nice start to the week and makes it easier to pick some games this Sunday now that I've won my last 6 and back in the positive.

FUqer · 09-22-17, 08:55 AM

I was considering the Seahawks but had concerns like everyone else about their offensive struggles and after seeing just how bad that 49er defense is, makes the Seahawks offense look even worse. Carson may help them a bit at RB but the Titans did a pretty good job against Fournette last week holding him to 2.9 ypc and the Seahawks OL isn't very good, so it would be hard to trust Wilson having to win it through the air right now. On the other side, I'm just not a fan of Mularkey as a HC, I didn't mind him when he was OC of the Steelers but I don't trust him as a HC and I don't trust the Titans against a good defense that should be able to contain Mariota and force him to throw the ball from the pocket which is a good thing for the Seahawks because their defense may have to score some points at the rate their offense is going. I'll prolly pick Seattle but not put anything on it. Seems like an Under also.

FUqer · 09-22-17, 10:48 AM

Not all lines are created to obtain equal action, that is ridiculous. Does anyone really think the Broncos opening at -1 would get equal action? LoL. The line makers are sharper than any of us and have access to all sorts of information that we don't. Some things are just uncontrollable and unpredictable and they don't always get their way, but more often than not they do. That line was 100% bait, IMO.

A4K · 09-22-17, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Not all lines are created to obtain equal action, that is ridiculous. Does anyone really think the Broncos opening at -1 would get equal action? LoL. The line makers are sharper than any of us and have access to all sorts of information that we don't. Some things are just uncontrollable and unpredictable and they don't always get their way, but more often than not they do. That line was 100% bait, IMO.

You are a sharp dude. Will be following you. BOL

FUqer · 09-23-17, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by A4K

You are a sharp dude. Will be following you. BOL

Appreciate the compliment, thanks!

FUqer · 09-23-17, 02:51 AM

Sunday Plays 9/24

¤ Browns -2 -108 (Heritage)
¤ Lions +3 -108 (Heritage)
¤ Chargers +3 +101 (Heritage)
____________________________
I wanted the Patriots but messed around and waited to long, if it goes back under 14 before I leave I may make a play. Small leans on Seahawks and Jags, but they may be a better teaser option. I'm leaving in the morning for the weekend so I doubt I will be able to make any more plays from where I'm going to be. GLA!

FUqer · 10-06-17, 06:44 AM

Week 5 Plays

¤ Lions -2 -115 (5Dimes)
¤ Chargers +3 +100 (Heritage)
¤ Bengals -3 -105 (Bovada)
¤ Packers +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
____________________________

Packers 6-1 SU L7 vs Cowboys.
Packers 10-1 SU L11 on 9 days rest.
Packers 9-2 SU L11 vs the NFC East, 7-4 ATS.
Packers 2-8 SU L10 as a Dog of 3 or less, Over 6-0 L6.
Packers 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 as a Road Dog of less than 3.
Packers 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they benefitted from at least four turnovers.
Cowboys 0-5 SUATS since 2011 as a home favorite of 3 or less, 1-7 SUATS since 2009.
Cowboys 5-9 ATS L14 as a favorite of 3 or less, 7-7 SU.
Cowboys 0-14 ATS as a home favorite off a SU and ATS loss.

Chargers 0-8-1 ATS L9.
Chargers 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 vs the NFC.
Chargers 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS L10 vs the NFC East, Over 6-0 L6.
Giants 0-3 SUATS vs Chargers since drafting Eli Manning.
Giants 7-2 ATS L9 vs the AFC, Under 7-2.
Giants 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU L6 vs the AFC West.

Lions 12-1 SU L13 as a Home Fav.
Lions 5-1 SU L6 vs the NFC South, with loss coming this season against Atlanta in a BS game.
Lions 15-1 SU and 11-3-2 L16 as a Home Favorite of 3 or less.
Panthers 1-3 SUATS L4 vs the NFC North, 4-3 SUATS L7.
Panthers 7-2 ATS L9 as a Road Dog, 5-4 SU.
Panthers 5-2 SUATS since 2012 as a Road Dog of 3 or less.

Bengals 11-0 ATS at home on turf when their opponent allowed more than 365 total yards and had less than 33 minutes of possession time
in their last game.
Bengals 0-8 ATS as a home favorite over a non-divisional opponent that averaging less than five yards per play.
Bengals 3-11 SUATS L14 vs the Bills, but 3-1 SU L4.
Bengals 1-4 SUATS L5 as a Home Favorite of 4 or less.
Bills 5-3 SUATS since 2015 as a Road Dog of 4 or less.

Chiefs 13-0 ATS when visiting a non-divisional opponent with a lower winning percentage.
Chiefs 8-0 SUATS L8 on the Road.

Chiefs playing in Houston for the 4th time in just over 2 years, going 3-1, losing last season 19-12 in Week 2.
Texans 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS as a dog vs a team that has averaged more than 392 yards of offense per game season to date.
Texans 0-12 SU in franchise history as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they had at least two more
minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Texans 0-12 SU vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they rushed for 150-plus yards.

Cardinals 9-0 SUATS on the road after a win in which Larry Fitzgerald didn't have a 20-plus yard reception
Cardinals 6-17 ATS L23 game overall.
Eagles 0-6 ATS vs the Cardinals since NFC Title game in 2008.

Raiders 0-14 ATS when the line is within 4 of pick when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks.
Ravens 11-0 ATS on the road off a loss in which they had at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.

Seahawks 0-11 ATS when they are off a TD-plus home win and their opponent is off a game in which they allowed 400-plus yards of offense.
Seahawks 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU L6 on the Road.

Bears 0-15 ATS at home after a game in which they had a rushing touchdown and did not win by 24-plus points.

Buccaneers 0-15 SUATS as a home dog after fewer a game in which than 28 percent of their first downs were from third down.

Colts 12-0 SUATS as a favorite off a 10+ loss when their previous opponent had more third down conversions than punts.

Titans 10-0 ATS on grass after playing as a road favorite when they are averaging more than 24 points per game over their last three
games.

Jaguars 10-0 ATS in franchise history a road 7+ dog on grass when they are off a loss and facing an opponent that is averaging more than
34 passes per game.

2daBank · 10-07-17, 04:05 PM

I think Texans past trends pretty much out the window as most those games were with a revolving door of garbage at qb.

Jnelson1182 · 10-07-17, 07:47 PM

Idk the Texans are good but I think there offense is a Lil inconsistent right now and kc is playing some good football, I think we will see better play out of kc this weekend after the close game we saw last week.

FUqer · 10-08-17, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Week 5 Plays

¤ Lions -2 -115 (5Dimes)
¤ Chargers +3 +100 (Heritage)
¤ Bengals -3 -105 (Bovada)
¤ Packers +2.5 -105 (Heritage)

¤ Teaser (Dolphins +6)(Steelers -2)
____________________________

Added a teaser.

FUqer · 10-08-17, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I think Texans past trends pretty much out the window as most those games were with a revolving door of garbage at qb.

I wanna see Watson against this Chiefs defense who should be motivated to end his hype. I haven't watched any games the last 2 weeks so I dunno how good he has looked, but I lean Chiefs still, seems there's quite a few people on the Texans.

FUqer · 10-08-17, 06:36 PM

Thank you Packers for making up for those missed extra points, that would been a frustrating way to lose. 3-2 for day, would of went 3-1 but I had to add a teaser with the Steelers, haha, I'll talk more about them later.

FUqer · 10-08-17, 08:55 PM

Week 5 Results

WIN - ¤ Packers +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
LOSS - ¤ Lions -2 -115 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Chargers +3 +100 (Heritage)
WIN - ¤ Bengals -3 -105 (Bovada)

LOSS - ¤ Teaser (Dolphins +6)(Steelers -2)
____________________________
3-2 for +0.75
____________________________

Season = 13-14-1 for -1.73
___________________________

ATS Total = 10-11-1 for -1.68

(Dogs = 7-6-1 for +0.71 )
(Favs = 3-5 for -2.39 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
---------------------------

ML Total = 1-1 for +0.15

(Dogs = 1-1 for +0.15 )
(Favs = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
---------------------------

O/U Total = 1-0 for +1.00

(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
---------------------------
Parlays = 0-0 for +0.00
---------------------------
Teasers = 1-2 for -1.20
___________________________

Week 1 = 4-5-1 for -1.23
Week 2 = 4-4 for -0.09
Week 3 = 2-3 for -1.16
Week 4 = 0-0 for -0.00
Week 5 = 3-2 for +0.75
________________________________________ ___

Nothing to write home about but it's a winning week, should've played the Chiefs tonight.

FUqer · 10-08-17, 10:01 PM

Early Leans for next week.

Jags
Bucs
Chiefs (Will have to grab the -3 early cuz prolly won't last)
Chargers
Titans

Eagles
Lions
49ers

FUqer · 10-09-17, 12:14 AM

Week 6

Eagles +3 (+0.3) at Panthers

Browns +10.5 (+9.5) at Texans

Patriots -9.5 (-3.6) at Jets

Dolphins +10.5 (+12.6) at Falcons

Lions +4 (-1.2) at Saints

Packers ?? (-2.0) at Vikings

Bears +7 (+7.9) at Ravens

49ers +10 (+3.7) at Redskins

Rams +2.5 (+3.7) at Jaguars

Bucs -2 (-6.1) at Cardinals

Steelers +3 (+4.1) at Chiefs

Chargers ?? (+7.4) at Raiders

Giants +10.5 (+7.4) at Broncos

Colts ?? (+4.7) at Titans

______________________________

Same as in college, these aren't my projections of who is going to cover, just a model I use as another tool to help. This is how I knew to play the Bengals though, the line was just too far off and the line stayed at -3. Another bait game just like the Broncos, interestingly both games involving the Bills.

shopbar picks · 10-09-17, 12:27 AM

Good stuff. But don't see the Giants scoring against the Broncos. And took Kc tonight bc like you said most of the good posters were on Houston. Some are starting to reach picking dogs to be Sharp. Thanks again

FUqer · 10-09-17, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

Good stuff. But don't see the Giants scoring against the Broncos. And took Kc tonight bc like you said most of the good posters were on Houston. Some are starting to reach picking dogs to be Sharp. Thanks again

Thanks!

I just calculate the formula. The numbers are what they are, doesn't mean I always agree with them. When I start looking into specific games is when I'll add my touch and adjust the numbers. If numbers are off by a lot in a game and there isn't a clear reason why, then there's a good chance the books know something we don't. But in the Giants case they just lost OBJ and their other WR's are hurt, so it explains the point differential which relies on past performance, but doesn't take into account things like injuries.

BTW, I've heard square is the new sharp now! I don't care if it's sharp or square as long as it wins.

shopbar picks · 10-09-17, 01:16 AM

Do you follow any plays posters here on SBR? Just curious I work nights in a sleep lab. And am up all night. But would be curious for you to pick 5 that you follow or respect and I will pick 6. Just a Tanner Lee reference. I will pick 5 NFL or ncaa I bet going against we get 58 to 60%

FUqer · 10-09-17, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by shopbar picks

Do you follow any plays posters here on SBR? Just curious I work nights in a sleep lab. And am up all night. But would be curious for you to pick 5 that you follow or respect and I will pick 6. Just a Tanner Lee reference. I will pick 5 NFL or ncaa I bet going against we get 58 to 60%

I like to read some threads too see what's going on, some of it is part of the process. I've learned if you see a lot of people on the same play to stay away or fade them. There are a couple of guys that I respect like 2daBank, he has always been cool with me and engaging and he knows his stuff and works hard at it. LT Profits is another guy who I respect for his experience and intelligence. The Lock is really good at what he does and I've learned from him as well. I like to come up with picks myself but I'll soak up as much information as I can.

ledjend · 10-09-17, 10:20 AM

Great stuff. Would be ledge if you could post every week.

Originally posted by FUqer

Week 5 Plays

¤ Lions -2 -115 (5Dimes)
¤ Chargers +3 +100 (Heritage)
¤ Bengals -3 -105 (Bovada)
¤ Packers +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
____________________________

Packers 6-1 SU L7 vs Cowboys.
Packers 10-1 SU L11 on 9 days rest.
Packers 9-2 SU L11 vs the NFC East, 7-4 ATS.
Packers 2-8 SU L10 as a Dog of 3 or less, Over 6-0 L6.
Packers 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 as a Road Dog of less than 3.
Packers 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they benefitted from at least four turnovers.
Cowboys 0-5 SUATS since 2011 as a home favorite of 3 or less, 1-7 SUATS since 2009.
Cowboys 5-9 ATS L14 as a favorite of 3 or less, 7-7 SU.
Cowboys 0-14 ATS as a home favorite off a SU and ATS loss.

Chargers 0-8-1 ATS L9.
Chargers 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 vs the NFC.
Chargers 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS L10 vs the NFC East, Over 6-0 L6.
Giants 0-3 SUATS vs Chargers since drafting Eli Manning.
Giants 7-2 ATS L9 vs the AFC, Under 7-2.
Giants 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU L6 vs the AFC West.

Lions 12-1 SU L13 as a Home Fav.
Lions 5-1 SU L6 vs the NFC South, with loss coming this season against Atlanta in a BS game.
Lions 15-1 SU and 11-3-2 L16 as a Home Favorite of 3 or less.
Panthers 1-3 SUATS L4 vs the NFC North, 4-3 SUATS L7.
Panthers 7-2 ATS L9 as a Road Dog, 5-4 SU.
Panthers 5-2 SUATS since 2012 as a Road Dog of 3 or less.

Bengals 11-0 ATS at home on turf when their opponent allowed more than 365 total yards and had less than 33 minutes of possession time
in their last game.
Bengals 0-8 ATS as a home favorite over a non-divisional opponent that averaging less than five yards per play.
Bengals 3-11 SUATS L14 vs the Bills, but 3-1 SU L4.
Bengals 1-4 SUATS L5 as a Home Favorite of 4 or less.
Bills 5-3 SUATS since 2015 as a Road Dog of 4 or less.

Chiefs 13-0 ATS when visiting a non-divisional opponent with a lower winning percentage.
Chiefs 8-0 SUATS L8 on the Road.

Chiefs playing in Houston for the 4th time in just over 2 years, going 3-1, losing last season 19-12 in Week 2.
Texans 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS as a dog vs a team that has averaged more than 392 yards of offense per game season to date.
Texans 0-12 SU in franchise history as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they had at least two more
minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Texans 0-12 SU vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win in which they rushed for 150-plus yards.

Cardinals 9-0 SUATS on the road after a win in which Larry Fitzgerald didn't have a 20-plus yard reception
Cardinals 6-17 ATS L23 game overall.
Eagles 0-6 ATS vs the Cardinals since NFC Title game in 2008.

Raiders 0-14 ATS when the line is within 4 of pick when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks.
Ravens 11-0 ATS on the road off a loss in which they had at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.

Seahawks 0-11 ATS when they are off a TD-plus home win and their opponent is off a game in which they allowed 400-plus yards of offense.
Seahawks 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU L6 on the Road.

Bears 0-15 ATS at home after a game in which they had a rushing touchdown and did not win by 24-plus points.

Buccaneers 0-15 SUATS as a home dog after fewer a game in which than 28 percent of their first downs were from third down.

Colts 12-0 SUATS as a favorite off a 10+ loss when their previous opponent had more third down conversions than punts.

Titans 10-0 ATS on grass after playing as a road favorite when they are averaging more than 24 points per game over their last three
games.

Jaguars 10-0 ATS in franchise history a road 7+ dog on grass when they are off a loss and facing an opponent that is averaging more than
34 passes per game.

FUqer · 10-09-17, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by ledjend

Great stuff. Would be ledge if you could post every week.

I usually do, I just took last week off cuz was sick of the NFL's shit. I have a College Football thread too with same sorts of information, prolly a lot more. When the weather is rainy like it has been this week then I have time to start earlier and get more done.

FUqer · 10-09-17, 05:43 PM

I think the Vikings win tonight, not excited about taking the hook though and there is too many variables. How will Bradford play coming off his injury and how will Murray look getting the bulk of the carries after the Cook injury against a decent Bears run defense and how will the Bears backup will play. Sometimes there is a spark to a team with the backup QB, but there's also prolly a reason he didn't start the season, so it might be best to give it a game to evaluate.

There seems like some decent Quarter plays tonight, I usually don't play them but I might put a few dollars on them and try to win some entry $ for poker tourneys.

Vikings 1stQ -0.5 +120
Bears 4thQ -0.5 +154

EDIT: I only put a few dollars on the Vikings 1Q play above and Vikings -3 +100 1st Half, nothing official.

FUqer · 10-09-17, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Early Leans for next week.

Jags
Bucs
Chiefs (Will have to grab the -3 early cuz prolly won't last)
Chargers
Titans

Eagles
Lions
49ers

Knew I should of took that -3 without thinking, sumbish!

FUqer · 10-09-17, 06:33 PM

Lions appear to be a possible trap so I'll prolly stay away from them, almost feel the same with the 49ers line. I'll have to monitor the line movement in those. Eagles are prolly my favorite so far, but they are going to be a public backed dog in a Prime Time game, not a good combo. They should've beat the Chiefs in KC. It's funny that Carr is starting this week, that will just mean more points for the Chargers, I'm hoping it's at least 6, but the value on the Raiders is at a low point.

ledjend · 10-09-17, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

I usually do, I just took last week off cuz was sick of the NFL's shit. I have a College Football thread too with same sorts of information, prolly a lot more. When the weather is rainy like it has been this week then I have time to start earlier and get more done.

Nice - I'll be watching both then.