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Sorry, just now saw your comment, I didn't even watch the game, so it's pointless to say who I liked now, but I'm high on the Eagles this year, I just didn't care for the spread and my confidence was shook this weekend in the NFL. Not sure if I like next week's card either, but I will do some work to see if I can find any edges.Comment -
And as you said pointless to say now. But did take the eagles. Too many good posters here were on the skins. Best of luck this week. I love the huskers getting points SaturdayComment -
Redskins now 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS L14 MNF games.
But they were 5-0 ATS last 5 Division Road games and 8-2 ATS L10 in Philly.Comment -
What are the numbers for Philly?Comment -
I think MNF is a different game. For 30 yrs have always taken the home Dog. Not tonight. But Would be curious if have a O/U on Philly. And home dogs on Just MNFComment -
Will post in CFB thread.Comment -
Not sure what the final number I had on it was, I deleted it from my notepad but recalculating it, the Eagles were -4.7 better in YPP + HF adv of 2/3, if that in this case cuz the Redskins have played good there, so 2 at most for HF and then Eagles have a 1.0 SOS difference, that would put it at about Eagles -7.7. I can't remember if I had it that high but it was higher than the line was though. They were prolly my 2nd fav play after the Chiefs this week, but seeing how the Chiefs game went and my Sunday went I didn't want nothing to do with it.Comment -
Home Dogs on Monday
53-89-0 (-6.32, 37.3%) 68-73-1 (-1.63, 48.2%) avg line: 4.7 +6: 87-55-0 (61.3%) -6: 45-93-4 (32.6%) +10: 96-44-2 (68.6%) -10: 34-107-1 (24.1%) 70-72-0 (0.76, 49.3%) avg total: 42.8 +6: 44-95-3 (31.7%) -6: 96-45-1 (68.1%) +10: 32-110-0 (22.5%) -10: 108-30-4 (78.3%)
Home Dogs since 2011 on Monday
12-18-0 (-3.80, 40.0%) 17-12-1 (0.52, 58.6%) avg line: 4.3 +6: 20-10-0 (66.7%) -6: 8-21-1 (27.6%) +10: 22-8-0 (73.3%) -10: 7-23-0 (23.3%) 12-18-0 (-3.07, 40.0%) avg total: 45.0 +6: 7-23-0 (23.3%) -6: 18-12-0 (60.0%) +10: 6-24-0 (20.0%) -10: 19-10-1 (65.5%)
Eagles about 50% OU on Mondays.Comment -
Don't know how you come up with that so fast but amazing. And looks like Dogs at home are pretty good on MNF. As long as it's not the BrownsComment -
Seahawks are 19-0 SUATS L19 as a home favorite after they had at least 77 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Seahawks are 17-0 SUATS L17 as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards.19-0-0 (21.21, 100.0%) 19-0-0 (13.79, 100.0%) avg line: -7.4 +6: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-5-1 (72.2%) +10: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 11-8-0 (57.9%)
17-0-0 (19.18, 100.0%) 17-0-0 (12.79, 100.0%) avg line: -6.4 +6: 17-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 11-6-0 (64.7%) +10: 17-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 10-7-0 (58.8%)
Texans are 0-15 ATS L15 on the road on turf off a game as a favorite when they are facing an opponent that is averaging more than 34 passes per game.
0-15-0 (-11.63, 0.0%) avg line: 2.8 +6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 0-15-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-7-1 (50.0%) -10: 0-15-0 (0.0%)
Falcons are 12-0 ATS L12 on the road off a road game in which they were outgained, as long as they are not getting four-plus points.
12-0-0 (12.92, 100.0%) 12-0-0 (12.25, 100.0%) avg line: -0.7 +6: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 8-3-1 (72.7%) +10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 5-7-0 (41.7%)
Jets are 0-12 ATS L12 vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss in which they scored first.
0-12-0 (-11.33, 0.0%) avg line: -0.3 +6: 3-9-0 (25.0%) -6: 0-12-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-4-1 (63.6%) -10: 0-12-0 (0.0%)
Jets are 10-0 ATS L10 on turf when their rushing yards increased over each of their past two games.
10-0-0 (10.75, 100.0%) avg line: 0.9 +6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 6-4-0 (60.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 4-6-0 (40.0%)
Patriots are 16-0 SUATS L16 on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game.
16-0-0 (18.75, 100.0%) 16-0-0 (14.38, 100.0%) avg line: -4.4 +6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 12-4-0 (75.0%) +10: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-6-1 (60.0%)
Chargers are 19-0 ATS L19 when visiting any team with more wins, as long as their opponent is not seeking same-season revenge for a loss by more than a TD.
19-0-0 (8.26, 100.0%) avg line: 5.6 +6: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 10-9-0 (52.6%) +10: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 7-11-1 (38.9%)
Eagles are 0-15 ATS L15 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent that has a season-to-date average third down conversion percentage of less than 41% when they are off a home game.
0-15-0 (-13.83, 0.0%) avg line: -6.0 +6: 3-12-0 (20.0%) -6: 0-15-0 (0.0%) +10: 6-8-1 (42.9%) -10: 0-15-0 (0.0%)
Bengals are 12-0 SUATS L12 at home on turf when their opponent allowed more than 365 total yards and had less than 33 minutes of possession time in their last game.
12-0-0 (15.50, 100.0%) 12-0-0 (9.96, 100.0%) avg line: -5.5 +6: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 10-2-0 (83.3%) +10: 12-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 5-7-0 (41.7%)
Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS L10 when they are at home after two away losses.
0-10-0 (-10.85, 0.0%) avg line: -0.2 +6: 4-5-1 (44.4%) -6: 0-10-0 (0.0%) +10: 6-4-0 (60.0%) -10: 0-10-0 (0.0%)
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Patriots are 25-0 OU off a win by more than a TD in which no player had at least 56% of their rushing yards and they did not commit more turnovers than their opponent.
25-0-0 (8.46, 100.0%) avg total: 47.6 +6: 11-14-0 (44.0%) -6: 25-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 6-19-0 (24.0%) -10: 25-0-0 (100.0%)
Steelers are 0-15 OU L15 on the road facing an opponent that is averaging at least 35 passes per game and they are not a four-plus point underdog.
0-15-0 (-9.47, 0.0%) avg total: 46.3 +6: 0-15-0 (0.0%) -6: 3-12-0 (20.0%) +10: 0-15-0 (0.0%) -10: 7-8-0 (46.7%)
Fortyniners are 14-0 OU L14 off a home game in which fewer than 31 percent of their opponent'''s first downs were from third down.
14-0-0 (12.32, 100.0%) avg total: 45.6 +6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) -6: 14-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 7-6-1 (53.8%) -10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) Comment -
Week 8 Plays
¤ PAR +207 (Vikings -485)(Falcons -290)(Bengals -515)(Steelers -170)
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Going to start off with a parlay with a potential hedge opportunity with the Lions if everything else goes well. I usually like to stick with 2 or 3, but I added the Bengals in there, cuz I just don't see them losing today, they seem to match up well with the Colts, IMO.
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The Browns sound like they don't want to be playing in London and they are as big of a mess as ever now, while the Vikings are playing well. I like the emotion that Keenum has been showing and they have looked like a balanced team on both sides of the ball. I'd say the Browns have no chance in this one and it should be a blow out.
Jets have been surprising some people, but I don't think their defense can handle the Falcons talent and I think the Falcons should be pretty motivated and at least should be able to get a win. My numbers on this game are way different from the line in the Jets favor and usually that means go the opposite as the books are right more often than not.
The Lions are off a bye but have some OL problems and the Steelers DL is their strength. This is also another one where there is a big difference in the numbers and the line. Numbers say Lions should be favored and I'll trust the books again. If the ML price goes up by kick off and this is the last leg left, I may consider hedging with the Lions ML or try to hit both and take the points, depending on how my day goes.
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There are 5 sides I'm somewhat interested in but I need to cram in the next few hours because I slacked again this week in the NFL. My motivation just isn't there and I wasn't expecting to start on NHL or NBA so early but I've been hot in both. I do have a good feeling about today and I haven't had that it a few weeks.Comment -
Good luckComment -
¤ Redskins +3 -105 (5Dimes)Comment -
FFS, that parlay has been harder than it should of been but it's down to the last leg and as of now I need every bit of the +207 to have a winning week after the Chargers were screwed over, so I doubt I'm going to hedge it.Comment -
Monday 10/30
¤ Broncos +7 -110 (5Dimes)
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Down only a unit this week thanks to my parlay hitting after shitting the bed on sides for the 2nd week in a row. Turnover's galore all weekend for me, I feel like I've lost 10 units this week in football but I could actually have a winning week if Denver covers. The Buckeyes and Steelers won big games and I may actually escape a terrible week on the plus side, I'll call that a decent week.Comment -
Week 8 Results
WIN - ¤ Panthers ML +105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Raiders ML +115 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Chargers +7 +100 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ 49ers +13 -115 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Redskins +3 -105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Broncos -7 -110 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ PAR +207 (Vikings -485)(Falcons -290)(Bengals -515)(Steelers -170)
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Week 8 = 2-5 for -2.18
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Season = 20-25-2 for -5.11
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ATS Total = 14-21-2 for -8.33
(Dogs = 10-13-1 for -3.69 )
(Favs = 4-8-1 for -4.64 )
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ML Total = 2-2 for +0.20
(Dogs = 2-2 for +0.20 )
(Favs = 0-0 for +0.00 )
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O/U Total = 1-0 for +1.00
(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
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Parlays = 2-0 for +3.22
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Teasers = 1-2 for -1.20
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Week 1 = 4-5-1 for -1.23
Week 2 = 4-4 for -0.09
Week 3 = 2-3 for -1.16
Week 4 = 0-0 for -0.00
Week 5 = 3-2 for +0.75
Week 6 = 4-1 for +2.95
Week 7 = 1-5-1 for -4.15
Week 8 = 2-5 for -2.18
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Well last night officially made it a bad week in the NFL. I got 6 minutes into the game until the 2nd turnover by the Broncos before I knew my bad luck was going to continue and turned the game off. Again turnovers killed me all weekend and it's impossible to predict when they are going to happen and in what situation. I better tread lightly until this bad spell is over.Comment -
Bad week? How about a bad year bro?Comment -
I think I'll be alright, thanks for caring enough to comment though.
NCAA = +13.38 units
NBA = +5.11 units
NHL = +2.13 unitsComment -
Week 9 Plays
¤ Bills -3 -120 (5Dimes)
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Not overthinking this one too much. Yea, it's a pubic road team in a prime time game and I hate that, but I'm trusting the numbers here.
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Bills(+7.2) -3 (-7.3) (-4.3) (-4.3) at Jets(-0.1)
Bills have been even better their last 3 games then their season YPPM avg.
Jets have been worse.
Bills have been almost as good on the Road YPPM.
Jets have been worse at Home.
Bills better on 3rd down and Red Zone defense.
Bills 4th on defense in YPR.
Jets 23rd in defense in YPR.
Bills 89& FG%.
Jets 76% FG%.
Bills #1st in TO Margin.
Jets #26th in giveaways.
Bills #20th in Penalty yards per game.
Jets #30th in Penalty yards per game.
Bills 6-2 SUATS L8 vs the Jets.Comment -
Tough week this week. Bills, Saints or Jags are my best options. Does anyone have any strong opinions?
Comment -
Week 9 Plays
LOSS - ¤ Bills -3 -120 (5Dimes)
¤ Ravens +3 -105 (5Dimes)
¤ Bucs +7 -110 (Bovada)
¤ Jaguars -5 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Chiefs ML +120 (5Dimes)
¤ Teaser: (Jags +1)( Rams pk)
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Pretty good fade material right now in the NFL.Comment -
¤ Lions ML -128 (5Dimes)
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The books are giving about a TD to Rodgers value, and technically that's prolly about right, but I think there is a more of a difference, just like there was between Savage and Watson. QB's make all the difference in the world and Hundley might not be as bad as Savage, (maybe he will be), but the Texans also have a better defense and were playing a lot softer opponent. I expect the Lions to have plenty of motivation to get a rare win in Green Bay. We'll see how the bye week goes for Green Bay, most people are expecting them to of had time to prepare the young QB and life after Rodgers, but it could also work against them depending on their mental state during the week off given the fragile mental state of some of these snowflake players. It all depends on how much confidence they really have in their new QB, they could just as easily come out flat. Another reason why I'm taking a chance with the road dog on MNF is I see some sharp money coming in on the Packers, and that's fine with me, as long as the public and sharp money isn't on the same side. Looks like the sharp money is evening out the 70% or so tickets on the Lions. Could be less public bets in general due to less interest, making sharp money even more dominate. Or it could just be a trap and I'm a sucker for falling for it. LoL Either way, just my thoughts, GLA!Comment -
I feel for Under bettors, that PI at the end looked like BS, the game was over.Comment -
Week 9 Results
LOSS - ¤ Bills -3 -120 (5Dimes)
PUSH - ¤ Ravens +3 -105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Bucs +7 -110 (Bovada)
WIN - ¤ Jaguars -5 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Chiefs ML +120 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Lions ML -128 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Teaser: (Jags +1)( Rams pk)
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Week 9 = 3-3-1 for -0.30
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Season = 23-28-3 for -5.41
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ATS Total = 15-23-3 for -9.63
(Dogs = 10-14-2 for -4.79 )
(Favs = 5-9-1 for -4.84 )
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ML Total = 3-3 for +0.20
(Dogs = 2-3 for -0.80 )
(Favs = 1-0 for +1.00 )
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O/U Total = 1-0 for +1.00
(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
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Parlays = 2-0 for +3.22
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Teasers = 2-2 for -0.20
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Week 1 = 4-5-1 for -1.23
Week 2 = 4-4 for -0.09
Week 3 = 2-3 for -1.16
Week 4 = 0-0 for -0.00
Week 5 = 3-2 for +0.75
Week 6 = 4-1 for +2.95
Week 7 = 1-5-1 for -4.15
Week 8 = 2-5 for -2.18
Week 9 = 3-3-1 for -0.30
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Better than the last 2 weeks, that's about all I can say. Still alive in survivor with the Saints. Next week should be an easy choice with the Lions vs the Browns. Thinking about locking in some plays already for next week.Comment -
Nice hit with lion'sComment -
Week 10 Plays
¤ Vikings ML -120 (5Dimes)
¤ Chargers +4 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Giants -1.5 -110 (5Dimes)
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Road Favorites in the AFC on 13 days rest are 34-14 ATS since 2000.
(Patriots, Steelers)
Patriots 5-1 ATS L6 on 13 days rest, includes two Super Bowls.
Patriots 25-1 OU off a win by more than a TD in which no player had at least 56% of their rushing yards and they did not commit more
turnovers than their opponent.
Steelers 2-6 ATS L8 on 13 days rest, includeds 2 Super Bowls.
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Road Favorites in the NFC on 13 days rest are 24-13 ATS since 2000.
(Vikings)
Vikings 1-4 ATS L5 on 13 days rest.
Redskins 7-3 ATS L10 as a Home Dog.
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Road Dogs on 13 days rest in the AFC are 10-4 ATS since 2014.
(Chargers, Browns)
Chargers 19-1 ATS L20 when visiting any team with more wins, as long as their opponent is not seeking same-season revenge for a loss by
more than a TD.
Chargers 12-0 ATS as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they recorded three-plus sacks in each of their previous two games.
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Saints 23-1 OU when they are off a game as a home favorite and facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged less than 5.14 yards
per play and less than 32:10 of possession time season-to-date.
Bills 11-1 OU L12 at Home, 4-0 OU L4 as a Home Dog.
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49ers 1-21 SU L22 at Home.
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Arians said that obviously they won't be giving AP the ball near as much as last week on a short week and that's what everyone is assuming, but I wouldn't be surprised if he still has a big game even though he isn't going to get quite as many carries as last week, he is still a man on a mission. And, I'm not convinced Stanton is much of a downgrade from Palmer, they still have some good WR's that can make some plays. With the Road Fav Seahawks being so heavily backed in a Prime Time game, there is no way I will take them tonight, but not exactly sold on the Cardinals.
Seahawks 7-0 ATS L7 Thursdays.
Cardinals 2-5 ATS on Thursdays.
Seahawks 2-6 ATS L8 as Road Favs.
Division Road Favs after a Home loss are 13-24-2 (35.1%) since 2011.Comment
