Smitty's 2014 NFL Thread

[Dmoneytx]

I agree on the game tonight man, I too feel it will be uncomfortably close, but I also agree with what you wrote

Not to turn this into a personal thread, lol, where do u live in Boston man??? I went to school at Merrimack, lol, N Andover - I'm sure you know it well. We hung out in Lawrence quite a bit, much more crazy shit goes down there, LOL!!! My entire family lives in the Boston area, prob 40 of them, hahaha... My mom and pops were the ONLY ones to leave New England, that's crazy man considering how fing COLD it is up there... Don't know if you remember, but my Fresh year was 1992, that winter was UNREAL man, even the locals said it was crazy. I knew after my first year, I was coming back to Texas soon, I did 3 years later.. I think the TKE's were what kept me around, great fing bunch of guys man, that was an awesome decision to pledge, so glad I did My mom is in Boston now & heading to Ft "Liquordale" (LMAO) as you put it to see her brother in 2 weeks.. That was a good one, lol...

BOL on all your plays tonight, face timing my cuz CHALLIE (lol - Charlie) during the game, they are ALL Patriot fing crazy mother fukkers in my family, hoping for a great game.... For us!!! BOL brtoha...

[SmittyZ28]

Rough night to say the least, but overall a very good weekend. Hope everyone had a better night than I did!

YTD 25-12 +14.54

[Dmoneytx]

The face time call was over by half, my cuz was beyond pissed off, lol... I only had the Pats ML to finish a parlay that would of been nice... Had 60 to pay over 500 on a 5 teamer, but it's all good, win some you lose some...

Look forward to the upcoming weekend on your plays

[SmittyZ28]

GB -8 1.25 to win 1.2

Teaser 6pts 1.5 to win 2.5
GB-3
Den-1
Seattle -1

[SmittyZ28]

Added

.75 to GB-8 for a total of 2 units on this line

1 Unit to U47

[SmittyZ28]

1-1 +1 Unit

YTD 26-13 +15.54

Profit tonight, hope everyone made some cash

[SmittyZ28]

Added

NYG -4 1.8 to win 1.65
Made a lot of money betting ATL at home and fading them on the road. Not sold on the NYG yet, but they are putting it together and Eli is protecting the ball. ATL lines are going to get dominated on both sides of the ball I think Rashad Jennings is going to have a big day here and we may see the salsa dance twice. Strong lean on the O49.5 here as well as I think ATL scores 21-24 but the Giants hang 30+

Bears +3 1.8 to win 1.5
Carolina is a mess, I like everyone else keep waiting for that D to "live up to their potential" but it just hasn't happened and I am not sure it will happen in the near future. No rushing game and they have to face a very very good offense coming off an embarrassing home loss, kind of like what happened to this team at home vs the Jets and then week 2 in San Fran. Love getting points here.

More plays to come

[2daBank]

i like under in nyg.. agree with rest tho,., gl this week..

[SmittyZ28]

i like under in nyg.. agree with rest tho,., gl this week..

Thank for the input man. Total on that NYG game is tough, ATL D is porous and obviously their Offense can score so tough to not see some points scored. However, ATL O Line is in shambles so Matty Ice may not have time to do anything but throw picks, tough total to cap in this game, may lay off.

Good luck on your plays bro, looking forward to seeing what you come up with

[SmittyZ28]

Ended up betting the Chi and Car over last night for a unit, but unpublished does not count in the thread although I am happy I did it.

1-1 -0.15 on 1pm games

Added
Pats+3 -115
2Unit (FREE PLAY) to win 1.85

Still Pending:
6 Pt teaser
GB-3 WON
Denver -1
Seattle -1

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

Pats ML+120 1 to win 1.2

Let's go home team!

Good Luck.

[SmittyZ28]

Pats -6 Live .7 Units

[SmittyZ28]

4-1 today +3.6

YTD 30-14 +19.14 Units

Pending 6pt to win 2.5 Units
GB -3 WIN
DEN -1 WIN
Seattle -1 PENDING

Another week, another cash. Makes it even better it was on the back of the home team, nice win by the Pats tonight. Tough stretch coming up for TB12 and the boys, we will see what this team is made of. Feeling a hell of a lot better than after last week.

Leaning on Seattle -7 but if the hook moves to 7.5 I may jump on the Skins. Will write up tomorrow

Good luck on the plays

[SmittyZ28]

Some strong looking lines in Week 6. Going to book Indy -2.5 on TNF immediately.

Houston is a decent team, but do not overvalue based on the close Dallas game. I am sure people thing Indy is due for a letdown but they beat a very good Baltimore squad and are a MUCH more talented team than Houston. Fade Fitz, 2.5 is a gift.

1.5 to win 1.4 Indy -2.5

[2daBank]

Some strong looking lines in Week 6. Going to book Indy -2.5 on TNF immediately.

Houston is a decent team, but do not overvalue based on the close Dallas game. I am sure people thing Indy is due for a letdown but they beat a very good Baltimore squad and are a MUCH more talented team than Houston. Fade Fitz, 2.5 is a gift.

1.5 to win 1.4 Indy -2.5

i agree no1 shouldnt overvalue the dal gm but id say same bout the balty gm, i dont think indy's defense is nearly as good as they looked yesterday that for sure.. if there anything to take away from yesterday that applies here i kinda think it that at the moment foster looks healthy and strong, he gonna be a problem for indy. if foster running strong shitbag fitzpatrick wont be under nearly the pressure indy had on flucco (who was awful btw, which he does on the road from time to time). hou wrs are far more talented than baltys as well. besides qb not sure that ravens roster is more talented, certainly not much more. flucco isnt exactly top notch so honestly not sure i agree with that statement and you know me im always a little higher on balty than i prob should be for some reason.. not even sure i woulda thought bout this before reading your post but honestly where is the talent balty has that exceeds hou other than qb? rbs-hou, wrs-hou, te's-push, defenses-close, id have to get out my oline grades to tell ya on them but guessing not a huge gap if any... i dunno man you tell me cause even tho ive knocked hou a ton because i think fitzptrick a scrub i dont see them as less talented than balty in many areas.

[SmittyZ28]

i agree no1 shouldnt overvalue the dal gm but id say same bout the balty gm, i dont think indy's defense is nearly as good as they looked yesterday that for sure.. if there anything to take away from yesterday that applies here i kinda think it that at the moment foster looks healthy and strong, he gonna be a problem for indy. if foster running strong shitbag fitzpatrick wont be under nearly the pressure indy had on flucco (who was awful btw, which he does on the road from time to time). hou wrs are far more talented than baltys as well. besides qb not sure that ravens roster is more talented, certainly not much more. flucco isnt exactly top notch so honestly not sure i agree with that statement and you know me im always a little higher on balty than i prob should be for some reason.. not even sure i woulda thought bout this before reading your post but honestly where is the talent balty has that exceeds hou other than qb? rbs-hou, wrs-hou, te's-push, defenses-close, id have to get out my oline grades to tell ya on them but guessing not a huge gap if any... i dunno man you tell me cause even tho ive knocked hou a ton because i think fitzptrick a scrub i dont see them as less talented than balty in many areas.

Bank, thanks for the feedback bro always appreciate your input. Was in Rochester, NY this week was not on the boards too much, that place sucks!

I agree with most of what you said, especially about Indy's defense they are suspect. But no more than Houston who according to ESPN is ranked 28th in the league in total D, 24th against the pass. I agree about Foster, he is by far the best back on the field tonight and if used correctly can help Houston try and control that game. With that said, I just do not see how the Colts do not start this game quickly through the air, luck is going to get his and Houston will eventually be forced to turn the ball to Fitz and then who knows what will happen. Indy has an opportunistic D surprisingly ranked 18th in the league even with the injuries. My justification for Colts is simple as follows;

1. 2.5 is a GREAT line for a better team
2. TNF games have all been lopsided blowouts this year, closest margin was Pitt/Balt and it was 20 points! I think we see that continue here and based on that if I needed to pick a team who would blow out the other that HAS to be INdy all day. Again, you have to believe this will be lopsided, and then to me the choice is clear
3. On TNF games, offenses run the show overall. QB is the most important position on the field in any game and Indy is so far ahead of Houston here it's David vs Goliath. Luck is young, tough and I do not see as much of an issue for him on short rest as I do Fitz. Indy is also a much better coached team here. Not sure I agree with you on WR's being an edge for Houston, but it is close. TEs are as well, and although AF is definitely a much better back, Indy is still average 119 YPG and they have the 2nd ranked offense in the league

TNF favors good offenses this year, Houston is no match for them if the theme continues

GL BRO



You are right about Balty, was surprised to hear you say that cause I know you LOVE betting on Baltimore haha.

[SmittyZ28]

Week 6 so far;

TNF:
Indy -2.5 1.5 to win 1.4
Indy Hous O 46.5 1.2 to win 1.1

Teaser (Square bet alert! haha) 2 to win 1.85
Denver -2
Seattle -2

Really starting to like the Colts TT O24.5... not sure yet

GL PPL

[SmittyZ28]

YTD Record Update 31-14 +21.64

[2daBank]

i think the way hou d is rated is a bit off, i dont think they great by any means. i do think how they are constructed suites them better against indy than other teams. really think you need to commit to the run as they can be had in the run gm, not exactly indy's specialty tho and they are down a pair of starting guards tonight. hou pass d does give up too high a completion percentage but they do a really good job of keeping guys in front of them and not allowing the big play. they very bend but dont break so they do give up a lot of yards, however they clamp down when teams get in the red zone allowing less than a 45% td rate, they are 1st in the league at creating turnovers as well so while they do give up yards it isnt easy to score a lot on them. im certainly not against you tho, indy's pass rush been really good and fitzpatrick a pick 6 waiting to happen when he pressured, i do think foster will keep him from being in a lot of bad situations but it inevitable at some point he gonna have to drop back when indy pinning their ears back. mr pick 6 vs luck and all i get is 3? no thanx you can have this one buddy! i think it gonna be a far cry from the thu shitfest we been having tho, not only cause i think hou can play with indy but cause now that we starting to get other sporting options the big bad nfl will have no problem throwing a few choice flags to keep it close if they have to, hate sounding like a conspiracy guy and dont even think it be necessary but i believe it if they have too none the less.. i like the under but as many times as turnovers have screwed me w a prime time under the idea of the best qb, the walking pick 6, and 2 of the highest turnover generating teams has me most likely passing.. gl brother

[SmittyZ28]

i think the way hou d is rated is a bit off, i dont think they great by any means. i do think how they are constructed suites them better against indy than other teams. really think you need to commit to the run as they can be had in the run gm, not exactly indy's specialty tho and they are down a pair of starting guards tonight. hou pass d does give up too high a completion percentage but they do a really good job of keeping guys in front of them and not allowing the big play. they very bend but dont break so they do give up a lot of yards, however they clamp down when teams get in the red zone allowing less than a 45% td rate, they are 1st in the league at creating turnovers as well so while they do give up yards it isnt easy to score a lot on them. im certainly not against you tho, indy's pass rush been really good and fitzpatrick a pick 6 waiting to happen when he pressured, i do think foster will keep him from being in a lot of bad situations but it inevitable at some point he gonna have to drop back when indy pinning their ears back. mr pick 6 vs luck and all i get is 3? no thanx you can have this one buddy! i think it gonna be a far cry from the thu shitfest we been having tho, not only cause i think hou can play with indy but cause now that we starting to get other sporting options the big bad nfl will have no problem throwing a few choice flags to keep it close if they have to, hate sounding like a conspiracy guy and dont even think it be necessary but i believe it if they have too none the less.. i like the under but as many times as turnovers have screwed me w a prime time under the idea of the best qb, the walking pick 6, and 2 of the highest turnover generating teams has me most likely passing.. gl brother

Man it wasnt pick-patrick that ****** up the game, fumble-patrick?? Least it was a good one to watch.

[SmittyZ28]

TNF 2-0 +2.5

YTD 33-14 +24.14

[2daBank]

insane start to that game, after the onside kick i was ecstatic i passed! these prime time games are goofy. guess it good thing indy got out to that lead, no idea what hou was doing before gm to have that start? anyway congrats on the win..

[SmittyZ28]

insane start to that game, after the onside kick i was ecstatic i passed! these prime time games are goofy. guess it good thing indy got out to that lead, no idea what hou was doing before gm to have that start? anyway congrats on the win..

Thanks buddy, what a screwy set up that was by Texans on the kickoff. Heads up play by Indy, can't believe they have recovered 3 this year!!

[SmittyZ28]

Added plays for week 6:

6pt Teaser

Chicago+9/San Diego -1

Cincy -6.5 1.5 to win 1.4

Pats -2.5 1.5 to win 1.4 (Brady just listed as questionable with an ankle injury)

[2daBank]

pretty close to playing cincy as well. been trying to talk myself into pulling trigger on bills all week, still havnt convinced myself tho.. keep thinking i should be getting 4 at least..

[SmittyZ28]

pretty close to playing cincy as well. been trying to talk myself into pulling trigger on bills all week, still havnt convinced myself tho.. keep thinking i should be getting 4 at least..

I agree, I had the number at 4.5 for the bills, dropped to 3 then 2.5 and I grabbed it. Brady hurt his ankle in practice today and he has a hobbled calf muscle not sure if it's on the same leg. Try to not let my Pats love influence my bets but under a field goal against Orton I had to take it. Buffalo D is legit, but so is the Pats D. Should be a close, good game, but a rule of thumb for me if Pats are -Less than a FG or +points I take them. Strategy has made me some money the last few years.

Love cincy in this spot under a TD at home after SNF. Green is a big loss but they have plenty of other weapons and I really think Burfict coming back is going to be huge against a struggling Carolina team. Cincy is 11-1 at home against the spread, but could not pull the trigger at 7.5. Might even see 6 here but did not want to chance the extra .5 up to 7

Good luck buddy

[SmittyZ28]

I agree, I had the number at 4.5 for the bills, dropped to 3 then 2.5 and I grabbed it. Brady hurt his ankle in practice today and he has a hobbled calf muscle not sure if it's on the same leg. Try to not let my Pats love influence my bets but under a field goal against Orton I had to take it. Buffalo D is legit, but so is the Pats D. Should be a close, good game, but a rule of thumb for me if Pats are -Less than a FG or +points I take them. Strategy has made me some money the last few years.

Love cincy in this spot under a TD at home after SNF. Green is a big loss but they have plenty of other weapons and I really think Burfict coming back is going to be huge against a struggling Carolina team. Cincy is 11-1 at home against the spread, but could not pull the trigger at 7.5. Might even see 6 here but did not want to chance the extra .5 up to 7

Good luck buddy

This is to say I heard about the Brady injury 10 minutes after I put the bet down. As long as it is not super serious no injury is really going to make him less mobile than he already is, so as long as he plays I am not too worried about it.

[2daBank]

I agree, I had the number at 4.5 for the bills, dropped to 3 then 2.5 and I grabbed it. Brady hurt his ankle in practice today and he has a hobbled calf muscle not sure if it's on the same leg. Try to not let my Pats love influence my bets but under a field goal against Orton I had to take it. Buffalo D is legit, but so is the Pats D. Should be a close, good game, but a rule of thumb for me if Pats are -Less than a FG or +points I take them. Strategy has made me some money the last few years.

Love cincy in this spot under a TD at home after SNF. Green is a big loss but they have plenty of other weapons and I really think Burfict coming back is going to be huge against a struggling Carolina team. Cincy is 11-1 at home against the spread, but could not pull the trigger at 7.5. Might even see 6 here but did not want to chance the extra .5 up to 7

Good luck buddy

yea im a big believer in betting cincy at home in unimportant games..panthers nothing special, run gm sux so i think cincy d will be able to pin their ears back and cause sCam problems.. crazy how far the panthers defense has fallen, i mean their corners were never great so the loss of hardy who helped mask their weakness obviously big but the run d has been surprisingly bad as well,, ginger shouldnt have to do a whole lot, gio and hill gm mixed in with sanu throwing a couple trick passes(he is their best passer, lol) should be enough.. cam actually playing pretty well for a guy that is unable to use his greatest asset (legs) and not getting a lot of help from his oline. i think this season gonna be good for him in a way as i think he is being forced to get better in the pocket and i think he is. still bungals at home off a ass whipping a tough task. the green injury makes this bet easier in a way cause think bungals the only td or more fav being overlooked and they at home!

i really like the bills, so much so i was a huge EJ apologist. not so much cause i like him as a qb as much as i like the surrounding parts so much. i wouldnt dismiss orten so easily, he makes this team contenders for a playoff spot imo. he did throw the pick 6 last week that had me worried i was fooling myself again wanting to believe cause rest of the team. he bounced back tho and played a really solid gm vs a very good det defense in his 1st week in the lineup. id expect him to get better as he becomes more familiar with the offense and his weapons. if you can put up 300 yards on det in det i think you can have some success against the pats who easier to run on. i def think this a tight defensive battle, that line says as much. i get the whole pats at a low number thing, i hate them and i used to pretty much subscribe to the same theory quite often. while we knew rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated just as quickly the ppl that buried them all a sudden think they back to being this elite team which they are not..i do think they have something with wright and 2 te sets but that style really caters into the bills defensive strengths. i think you have to have talent on the outside to succeed against the bills and we know pats are seriously lacking in that area. i know you remember week 1 last season when bills had these guys dead to rights as a 10 point doggie, bills have improved since then while not sure yet which way pats have gone since then? i guess my issue is the whole idea i did get 10 in that gm last yr now i have to play them only catching 3! while i do think bills better since then not sure about 7 damn points better. of coarse +3 would have been enough to cash with buf in that gm so the line makes sense.. i like the under as well, im hard pressed to find more than 24 for the winner of this one. think i might just tease it, bills+8.5 un 51 seems like a winner to me.. hope im not bothering you too much

[SmittyZ28]

Great write up on Buffalo and Pats here Bank, you made a lot of great points, not enough to make me change my -2.5 bet, but some great insight


First, you are right about Orton he is not as much of a bum as I said and a lot of people have been getting on him for. Also, solid point about his performance in Detroit last week against a very good defense. I personally think Det D is a little overrated due to opponents but they are definitely solid for sure. Orton steps in and basically has a better game than EJ had all season which was impressive. Bills are a better team all around and maybe I am being blind sided by history and my blind loyalty to the Brady bunch, but 22-2 against the Bills in his career, still trying to silence the haters, I think Brady goes off again against this D even at home. The O line help up against a similar pass rush than the one in Buffalo, with Buffalo slightly better, Gronk woke up last week with Wright looking impressive. Those TEs sets have always murdered the Bills, not sure if that has changed as long as the Pats execute. Also will help the running game

Good Luck Brotha

[SmittyZ28]

Added: CHI/ATL O54 1.2 to win 1.1

[rocky16]

I agree on the game tonight man, I too feel it will be uncomfortably close, but I also agree with what you wrote

Not to turn this into a personal thread, lol, where do u live in Boston man??? I went to school at Merrimack, lol, N Andover - I'm sure you know it well. We hung out in Lawrence quite a bit, much more crazy shit goes down there, LOL!!! My entire family lives in the Boston area, prob 40 of them, hahaha... My mom and pops were the ONLY ones to leave New England, that's crazy man considering how fing COLD it is up there... Don't know if you remember, but my Fresh year was 1992, that winter was UNREAL man, even the locals said it was crazy. I knew after my first year, I was coming back to Texas soon, I did 3 years later.. I think the TKE's were what kept me around, great fing bunch of guys man, that was an awesome decision to pledge, so glad I did My mom is in Boston now & heading to Ft "Liquordale" (LMAO) as you put it to see her brother in 2 weeks.. That was a good one, lol...

BOL on all your plays tonight, face timing my cuz CHALLIE (lol - Charlie) during the game, they are ALL Patriot fing crazy mother fukkers in my family, hoping for a great game.... For us!!! BOL brtoha...

From Lawrence. Don't fock with me pal.

[SmittyZ28]

Added Weeks 6 Plays;

Bears TT O24 1.4 to win 1.3

Pitt +1.5 1.5 to win 1.4

Denver 1H -6.5 1.2 to win 1.1

[SmittyZ28]

From Lawrence. Don't fock with me pal.

Hahaha, Yea Lawrence is legit. I am in North Andover, great food in Lawrence and cheap guns

[SmittyZ28]

Week 6 Card

Teasers

(Square bet alert! haha) 2 to win 1.85
Denver -2
Seattle -2

1.8 to win 1.65

Chicago+9
SD-1


Bears TT O24 1.4 to win 1.3
CHI/ATL O54 1.2 to win 1.1
Pitt +1.5 1.5 to win 1.4
Denver 1H -6.5 1.2 to win 1.1
Cincy -6.5 1.5 to win 1.4
Pats -2.5 1.5 to win 1.4

Strong Leans on NYG+3, AZ/Wash O45, Rams +3.5 No bets yet

Good luck everyone, lets get some more cash from the books today!

[2daBank]

i like all your leans..