Smitty's 2014 NFL Thread

[SmittyZ28]

Couldn't post the week 1 plays was too busy sitting in SunLife stadium sweating my ass off watching my Pats get smoked in the second half. It was a profitable week, but if it ain't posted it don't count.

1 Unit is $50. $1000 bankroll

Week 2:

Pitt at Balt
1H U22.5 +100 1 Unit- Though it slowed down a bit towards the end of last season the 1H unders had a great run, and with these two teams I think we see it get back on track

Pitt +3 -130 1.04 Unit to win .8
At the end of the day I think both these teams are going to struggle this year. I know Balt has some weapons and Flacco can be good and they are coming off a home loss in week 1. These games are almost always tight so I am taking the points in what should be a battle between two tired sub-par offenses.


Pats +3 +100 2 Units
I am a homer, not going to deny it. With that said, I think the Pats are going to face their fair share of challenges this year, but remember this team is fielding basically the same offense as last year and a much improved defense. The Pats are still a 12 win team and will compete for a title this year. Week 1 showed some flaws particularly in the O-line which was to be expected with the Mankins trade. The Dolphins earned the win, not taking that away but again it was week 1 and the 2nd half meltdown was a text book example of conditioning based on the extreme heat that was down there. I was drinking 20 oz Bud Lights as fast as I could and couldn't get drunk, was sweating it out too fast.
Vikings on the other hand beat up on a bad St Louis team. Brady and the Pats are not the Rams, especially coming off a loss which to me and most bettors out there is an auto-bet.


Fun Play .8 to win 1.6
TB ML+NE ML+ GB ML+ Den ML. Despite the write up above, the only one I think COULD lose here is New England.

More plays to come, good luck boys and girls

[SmittyZ28]

O 21.5 2H .8 Units

GL

[SmittyZ28]

YTD 1-2 -.84 Units

Added plays for 9/15

Cincy -5. 1.14 to win 1
Bengals one of the best home teams in the league and they will score against dirty birds D. Great pass rush against a hurt OLine and a not exactly mobile QB. Cincy was great ATS at home last year
Leaning on the over here

Buffalo -1 -115 1.14 to win 1
Buffalo and Miami are both much improved but I see another huge Miami let down here, they do it every time after a big win. Buffalo Defensive line is stacked and Tannehill is going to spend some time on the turf. Love the matches up front between these two, I think the game will be close but I like the Bills in this spot

12 Pt teaser 1.2 to win 1.14

				Pending	9/14/14 1:00pm NFL Football 257 Dallas Cowboys/Tennessee Titans Over 37 *
				Pending	9/14/14 1:00pm NFL Football 258 Tennessee Titans +9 * vs Dallas Cowboys
				Pending	9/14/14 4:25pm NFL Football 274 Green Bay Packers +3½ * vs New York Jets
				Pending	9/14/14 4:25pm NFL Football 276 Denver Broncos -1 * vs Kansas City Chiefs

Leans:

SD +5 Good home team getting points, seahawks win here but SD is too good of a team to be laying 5 here
PHI/IND Over- Obviously
Carolina-2

GL People

[SmittyZ28]

Added:

Carolina -2.5 1.2 to win 1.1

12 Pt Teaser

				Pending	9/14/14 1:00pm NFL Football 251 Detroit Lions/Carolina Panthers Over 31½ *
				Pending	9/14/14 1:00pm NFL Football 261 New England Patriots/Minnesota Vikings Over 36 *
				Pending	9/14/14 1:00pm NFL Football 265 Atlanta Falcons/Cincinnati Bengals Over 36½ *
				Pending	9/15/14 8:35pm NFL Football 279 Philadelphia Eagles/Indianapolis Colts Over 41½ *

Leaning Denver -6.5 1 H

Lets Get It!

[SmittyZ28]

Added Denver -7 1H 1.2 to win 1

[SmittyZ28]

6-4 +3.1 Units, looked at SD all week but didn't pull the trigger. Any day with profit is a good day

Leaning 6.5 Teaser SF-1 U54

[SmittyZ28]

I am rolling with the bears +7 1.1 to win 1

Good luck People

[SmittyZ28]

7-4 +4.1 Units

MNF Leans: Indy -2.5 O53. Total is a big one but I do not see a whole lot of defense getting played tonight

[SmittyZ28]

Added:

Colts -3 1.25 to win 1.2
Over 53.5 1.25 to win 1.2

Good luck, strong lean on Philly +2.5 1H I think Indy plays from behind most of the game, but Luck comes through in the end. No bet yet

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

Added an additional +1 Unit to O53

Look ahead teaser, no play yet. Teaser usually kill me, but I love them. Might take the Saints out, but I think they will kill the Vikings after and 0-2 start as they would almost anyone unfortunate enough to be playing them in their home opener at 0-2

1. 9/18/2014 8:25 PM NFL Football 302 Atlanta Falcons* +3½ vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. 9/21/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 460 New Orleans Saints* +½ vs Minnesota Vikings
3. 9/21/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 462 Cincinnati Bengals* +4 vs Tennessee Titans
4. 9/21/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 470 New England Patriots* -5 vs Oakland Raiders
5. 9/21/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 473 Denver Broncos* +16 vs Seattle Seahawks

[SmittyZ28]

8-5 +5.05

Awful officiating towards the end of the game to screw the -3, compounded by AWFUL play calling on Indy's last drive. Ah well a Profitable night is a profitable night.

Good Luck People

[SmittyZ28]

8-5 +5.05

Awful officiating towards the end of the game to screw the -3, compounded by AWFUL play calling on Indy's last drive. Ah well a Profitable night is a profitable night.

Good Luck People

YTD 8-5 +5.05

Thursday 9/18 Locked in:
Atl-6 1.28 to win 1.2

Definitely going to bet the Over, waiting to see if it drops from 46, also looking at Atl TT O26.5. Both teams D lines are awful, ATL has not recorded a sack yet this season. Tampa should get huge chunks on the ground and Atl through the air. McCown has been a turnover machine the last couple of weeks, hoping that continues for the side and the total bet. Tampa is desperate with two more tough road games looming ahead, but Atl is just a much better team and they are at home.

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

Added:

Over 46 1.28 to win 1.2
ATL TT O 26.5 1.28 to win 1.2

Parlay, 2 to win 2.5

				Pending	9/18/14 8:25pm NFL Football 302 Atlanta Falcons -275* vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
				Pending	9/21/14 1:00pm NFL Football 460 New Orleans Saints -500* vs Minnesota Vikings
				Pending	9/21/14 1:00pm NFL Football 467 Indianapolis Colts -300* vs Jacksonville Jaguars
				Pending	9/21/14 1:00pm NFL Football 470 New England Patriots -1300* vs Oakland Raiders

GL!

[Hot Jerry]

Atlanta tonight looks good on ML ONLY - but I NOT playing anything tonight !!

[SmittyZ28]

Wow, ATL TT hits 7 seconds into the 2nd quarter

[SmittyZ28]

Ytd 11-5 +8.65

[SmittyZ28]

Booked for Sunday;

SF-3 2.6 to win 2.5- One of my favorite plays for the weekend. No Carson, Vernon Davis coming back SF offense is 100% different with him on the field. I just do not know how AZ is going to score points against this defense, I really thought this line was going to be 5.5-6.5, love the -3. Az always plays tough at home and in the division and I do think SF took a step back this year, BUT they are still such a better team coming off a home loss? Harbaugh is going to have these guys looking for blood

Bears +3 1.5 to win 1.3 Jets have an awful secondary and the Bears are better at every level of the game here, Jets D is close, but that is it. I think the Jets can hang, not saying they are not a good team and sure the Bears could be in a let down spot here but a better team getting a field goal? Count me in. Strong lean on the Over 45 here

SD +2.5 1.3 to win 1.25 I wrote this game up on another thread earlier this week and have been looking at this line since last Sunday. Was really hoping to get +3 with less than -130 but it has not moved and I think if anything this line drops by tomorrow night. Yes its a west coast team playing at 1pm in the east, yes SD won a huge game against the hawks last week and yes buffalo is not a bad team. SD offense looks sharp, D looks decent as well and Rivers is one of the top 5 QBs in the league with SD being the 3rd best team in the AFC and we get points? Booked!

Leans:
Wash +6.5/7- very attractive line and I think the team might be better off with Cousins and Deshawn is supposed to be back this week. Philly could easily be 0-2 right now and in a spot for a major let down. Washington offense numbers are inflated due to beating up on an awful team last week, but 7 points is a lot against an Eagles D that can't punch their way out of a wet paper bag. Probably a stronger lean on the Over 50

SD ML +114- Same reason as above. I rarely bet ML except on heavy favorite parlays (square I know). Looking to add more +$ bets so hitting 45-50% is profitable.

Cowgirls -1- I really like the girls in this spot facing an awful offense in STL, I think they win pretty easily here but NO ONE ever made $ betting on Dallas on the road, even when they had better teams than they are fielding this year. Will probably lay off this one.

Detroit/GB O52- Has square written all over it but neither one of these teams play consistent defense and both can score points in a hurry. Really like the over here and will almost certainly get some action on it.

Indy -6.5- Jacksonville is awful, period.

GOOD LUCK

[SmittyZ28]

Added:

GB DET O52 1 to win 1 unit
Wash Det O50 1 to win 1



6pt Teaser 2 to win 1.9

Indy -1.5 + Pats -9

[SmittyZ28]

Pats -7 1H 1.5 to win 1.3

Good luck people!

[SmittyZ28]

Beglas -6.5 1.2 to win 1.1 AJ Green is active and the Bengals are a cover machine at home

Good Luck!

[SmittyZ28]

Rolling the Pats 1H push into Pats 2H -6.5 1.5 to win 1.3

[SmittyZ28]

Sea/Den U48.5 1.2 to win 1.15

[SmittyZ28]

YTD 16-8-1 +9.05

Squeezed a very small profit out of afternoon action, NE getting in the end zone just once from the red zone would have been huge, but profit is profit.

Carolina -3 1.2 to win 1.1

Good Luck

[SmittyZ28]

Also, Carolina 1Half -3 1 to win 1 unit

[SmittyZ28]

17-8 +10.35 Another profitable weekend.

Cheers

[SmittyZ28]

1 UNIT
Pack Bears O51
Miami -3.5
NJY +1.5

1.1
GB-1

Colts -7 1.9 to win 1.5

Colts TT O27 1.5 to win 1.4

Good luck people!

[SmittyZ28]

Shaping up to be a good early afternoon, hoping the Jets can pull this game out.

4pm Games:

SD TT O28.5 1.1 to win 1. Jax has given up 44-34-31 in their first 3 games to Philly, Indy and Washington, I would rank SD offense up there with all 3

Parlay, buying points

SD-6.5 O41

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

7-1 +7.1 units on the day.

Season Record 24-9 +17.45 Units

Strong lean on the Girls +3 tonight, definitely betting the Over, hoping it's drops a half a point

[SmittyZ28]

Just betting the O54 for 1 unit, I think Dallas wins this game but Girls get none of my $

[SmittyZ28]

25-9 +18.49 Units on the year

MNF Pats-3 1.2 Units to win 1.2

The Pats have a ton of offensive issues to work out if they are going to compete at a high level this year. The good news is for us homers, the talent is there on the team. NE returned just about the entire offense as last year and in 2013 the Pats one of the top 3 offenses in the league last year. Granted, most of the problems have to do with the Oline but the Pats will turn this around at some point, will it be tonight against a horrible chiefs Defense? Possible, but one thing is for sure is that KC offense is going to struggle against a VERY good and opportunistic Pats defense tonight. Sure Smith may not lose a game for you via turnovers, but he sure as hell is not going to win a game either. Pats are better than the Chiefs in every facet of the game here, Coach, QB, Offense, Defense and ST and TB12 gets up for Prime Time games. If you bet the Pats ATS in PrimeTime games over the last 6-7 years you made money. I know Jamal Charles is coming back, but good luck against that Pats D front, not to mention he was awful to start the year.

Do not overthink this one, Pats/Brady/Primetime and you have to swallow a field goal? That is $$$ right there.

Under 47.5 looking pretty enticing as well, that total does not make a whole lot of sense to me right now

[Dmoneytx]

What's up Smitty?? I just found out who you were.. Wish I knew earlier man.. Damn, you record is really good man, congrats

You must be a big Pats fan, I can't argue with that. I have 3-4 cousins in the Boston area who FINALLY got their season tickets a few years ago. So my uncles and them share who goes to what home game, they LOVE it!!! I went to school in Mass, hated the cold weather, Houston much better, lol... You live in Miami??? If you do, weather is nice there too..

Hoping that Pats D shuts DOWN the run game, I like Alex Smith, but I am riding on the Pats as well tonight. Hoping for that turn around game... BOL!!!

[SmittyZ28]

What's up Smitty?? I just found out who you were.. Wish I knew earlier man.. Damn, you record is really good man, congrats

You must be a big Pats fan, I can't argue with that. I have 3-4 cousins in the Boston area who FINALLY got their season tickets a few years ago. So my uncles and them share who goes to what home game, they LOVE it!!! I went to school in Mass, hated the cold weather, Houston much better, lol... You live in Miami??? If you do, weather is nice there too..

Hoping that Pats D shuts DOWN the run game, I like Alex Smith, but I am riding on the Pats as well tonight. Hoping for that turn around game... BOL!!!

Thanks man, I am up in the Boston area still, born and raised. Very few of us leave Boston except to go to Florida when we are old haha, I was down in Miami for the season opener, my business partner owns a condo in Fort Liquordale. Was a great time, hoping for a bounce back too the pats will not have an easy time here and I can see it being uncomfortably close especially with the crowd noise. BUT, this team will turn it around and I love all the hating going on right now. Because the Pats aren't winning by 3 touchdowns every week they are suddenly bad? What makes you good in the NFL is winning and right now this team is 2-1. Winning does not need to be pretty, it just needs to happen.

Good luck buddy

[SmittyZ28]

Added another 1.5 to win 1.7 on the Pats +105

Added U47 1.25 to win 1.2

Looking hard at Pats -.5 1H, in all 3 of their games they have went into the 2nd half up at least a touchdown and they always start fast

[SmittyZ28]

Added Pats- .5 2Units(Free bet) to win 1.9 of straight cash homie

[SmittyZ28]

Added Pats- .5 2Units(Free bet) to win 1.9 of straight cash homie

1st Half