Fade the public

[WWCD]

Some say it doesn't work in the present day, but I still use it as part of my handicapping. If I like a game and I see 70% or more of the public on the other side, it makes me like my pick even more.

I don't even watch college ball, but I do well fading the public in bowl games so I think there is some value keeping track of what the public does.


NFL Week 1

NO@ATL 78% on NO (Fading)
MIN@STL 80% on MIN (Fading)
NE@MIA 78% on NE (Fading)
IND@DEN 70% on DEN (Fading)
BUF@CHI 79% on CHI (no play for me)


Thoughts?

[2daBank]

id rather i was in the minority simply cause most ppl are stupid . i dont make plays just to fade the popular side tho as i doubt that really gets you any better than .500 thoughout the coarse of a season.. there plenty of times i can make a case why the less popular side is the right one, no need to fade them all blindly..

as for your list there i think if you wait and can get stl-3 you prob have a decent play mostly due to the fact there really no way bradford is worth the point drop that occurred after his garbage ass got hurt, if anything him being gone prob makes the lambs a few points better not worse.. i cant play against saints in a building where they have owned atl.. i could see phins making a gm of it, dont think they a bad play.. if you wanna fade donks you just as well off playing the over cause wes or no wes den gonna put up points on the colts i do believe so if luck and co keep it close it flying over, if donks cover still good chance it goes over. why no play on bills? seems to me that goes against the ideal of the thread and honestly makes them prob even more appealing to any1 looking to fade if you scared to take them, not sure why you would be? have you seen anything that would suggest bears run d is greatly improved? if not there really no reason bills cant keep it within a number bears only covered maybe twice all last season..

[WWCD]

Thanks for your insight and advice.

The thing is I don't fade blindly. If I am leaning on a certain pick and the public is heavy on the other side it somewhat solidifies the pick for me.

Buff was a no play for me, so it stays a no play for me. I never fade the public blindly when it's NFL. It is the only sport I am on top of 24/7.

I am however, going to track every single game this year where 70% or more of the public is on one side.

[Rmac15]

I dont like the Falcons play, their defense was so bad last year and they did nothing to improve it. Brees will get 5 TD's on those guys. I really like New Orleans at ATL this week.

[Bdolan33]

wasnt profitable last two seasons, wont be profitable this season

[BigDofBA]

Blindly fading is stupid but if you already like a side and then realize the public is on the other side like you said, I've found that to be profitable as well.

[WWCD]

I dont like the Falcons play, their defense was so bad last year and they did nothing to improve it. Brees will get 5 TD's on those guys. I really like New Orleans at ATL this week.

Possible. We'll see this Sunday. Bol.

[Isaiah]

I am however, going to track every single game this year where 70% or more of the public is on one side.

It will be interesting to see the results of this. I like your philosophy and believe that you will win more than you lose. Please post your fades each week.

As Mark Twain said: "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."

Best of luck to you.

[WWCD]

Update:

NYG@DET 71% now on DET pushing line to -5.5

I was already on DET earlier this week. I feel like the public is on the right side on this one. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Jcm144]

interesting insight to go totally against the public. I always feel uncomfortable when I am on the same side as 80% of the public. I'll be all over CHI -6.5 though! Best of luck with this strategy.

[WWCD]

Update:

CLE@PITT 72% on PITT -7 (no play)

[RMStanley]

Fading the public usually starts working in Week 2 after people overreact to Week 1 games.

Week 1 is almost always a square's heaven.

[WWCD]

Fading the public usually starts working in Week 2 after people overreact to Week 1 games.

Week 1 is almost always a square's heaven.

You are probably right but I wanted to track every game this year anyway.

Since I hit on the Hawks game, I may go ahead and take the Bills after all. Will update if I lay the bet.

[adila1401]

I dont like the Falcons play, their defense was so bad last year and they did nothing to improve it. Brees will get 5 TD's on those guys. I really like New Orleans at ATL this week.

Well, they did get Paul Solai, top 5 DT and Tyson Jackson top 5 Run stuffing DT among others...

I think Falcons win str8 up..they are very tough to beat at home and have won something like 9 of past 10 home openers..Parlaying ATL+PIT myself..glgl

[2daBank]

Well, they did get Paul Solai, top 5 DT and Tyson Jackson top 5 Run stuffing DT among others...

I think Falcons win str8 up..they are very tough to beat at home and have won something like 9 of past 10 home openers..Parlaying ATL+PIT myself..glgl

saints dont seem to have any problem beating them in atl, i know ryans record pretty impressive at home but think aints have beat them 4 of last 5 in the dome i believe..

[RMStanley]

saints dont seem to have any problem beating them in atl, i know ryans record pretty impressive at home but think aints have beat them 4 of last 5 in the dome i believe..

The sample size is now large enough to determine that the Saints have been the better team than Atlanta over the past 3-4 years (whichever period you find most relevant). Further, the Saints have rather clearly improved their roster both in health and in talent from last season while the Falcons have more or less treaded water in the talent department. Atlanta has also already lost a key starter on both offense and defense while New Orleans enters the game 100% healthy (Stills won't play play - that's the only key player out).

So if the Saints are the better team and they improved their roster more than Atlanta has AND they're healthier, I don't see how Atlanta wins this game unless they win the turnover battle by +2 or more.

[2daBank]

The sample size is now large enough to determine that the Saints have been the better team than Atlanta over the past 3-4 years (whichever period you find most relevant). Further, the Saints have rather clearly improved their roster both in health and in talent from last season while the Falcons have more or less treaded water in the talent department. Atlanta has also already lost a key starter on both offense and defense while New Orleans enters the game 100% healthy (Stills won't play play - that's the only key player out).

So if the Saints are the better team and they improved their roster more than Atlanta has AND they're healthier, I don't see how Atlanta wins this game unless they win the turnover battle by +2 or more.

i couldnt back atl here, but ive been wrong before.. i love what aints did in the off season, they probably have the best safety tandem in the league and a d coordinator that knows how to use them.. i just dont see aints losing the turnover battle very often this season with a d that should improve greatly in that area and brees in control of the offense..

[WWCD]

Well, they did get Paul Solai, top 5 DT and Tyson Jackson top 5 Run stuffing DT among others...

I think Falcons win str8 up..they are very tough to beat at home and have won something like 9 of past 10 home openers..Parlaying ATL+PIT myself..glgl

I believe the home team covered in the last 5 matchups. Also ATL covered in 5 of their last 6 games in 2013.

[WWCD]

Parlayed Bills with Balt.

[WWCD]

JAX@PHI 72% on Eagles.

[WWCD]

CLE@PITT 75% on PITT.

[WWCD]

Early results:

NO@ATL 78% on NO - Public Lose
MIN@STL 80% on MIN (62% prior to KO)- Public Win
NE@MIA 78% on NE - Public Lose
BUF@CHI 79% on CHI - Public Lose
CLE@PIT 75% on PITT - Public Lose
JAX@PHI 72% on PHI - Public Win
IND@DEN 70% on DEN - Pending

[WWCD]

Put another small bet down while cashing out on Colts+9 and see if the trend continues.

[Jcm144]

looks good for the first week!

[WWCD]

NO@ATL 78% on NO - Public Lose
MIN@STL 80% on MIN (62% prior to KO)- Public Win
NE@MIA 78% on NE - Public Lose
BUF@CHI 79% on CHI - Public Lose
CLE@PIT 75% on PITT - Public Lose
JAX@PHI 72% on PHI - Public Win
IND@DEN 70% on DEN - Public Lose

Call it what you want, but taking into account where the public is has it's benefits. It's only Week 1, we'll see how things go as the season progresses.

[WWCD]

NO@ATL 78% on NO - Public Lose
MIN@STL 80% on MIN (62% prior to KO)- Public Win
NE@MIA 78% on NE - Public Lose
BUF@CHI 79% on CHI - Public Lose
CLE@PIT 75% on PITT - Public Lose
JAX@PHI 72% on PHI - Public Win
IND@DEN 70% on DEN - Public Lose
NYG@DET 71% on DET - Public Win

Updated with Detroit game.

This game is a good example of me not blindly betting against the Public and still capping the games. My philosophy is simple, the public as a whole cannot win most of the time. Casinos do not make money this way.

Since we all know casinos regularly smash on the public, I think it is realistic that this kind of information is part of the equation while capping games.

[odog11]

NO@ATL 78% on NO - Public Lose
MIN@STL 80% on MIN (62% prior to KO)- Public Win
NE@MIA 78% on NE - Public Lose
BUF@CHI 79% on CHI - Public Lose
CLE@PIT 75% on PITT - Public Lose
JAX@PHI 72% on PHI - Public Win
IND@DEN 70% on DEN - Public Lose
NYG@DET 71% on DET - Public Win

Updated with Detroit game.

This game is a good example of me not blindly betting against the Public and still capping the games. My philosophy is simple, the public as a whole cannot win most of the time. Casinos do not make money this way.

Since we all know casinos regularly smash on the public, I think it is realistic that this kind of information is part of the equation while capping games.

Insights on when not to fade the public before games start would be more helpful, but I agree this was a prime example of when not to fade the public. Logic/capping would say fade in the 2nd game and play Cards, yes?

[WWCD]

Insights on when not to fade the public before games start would be more helpful, but I agree this was a prime example of when not to fade the public. Logic/capping would say fade in the 2nd game and play Cards, yes?

I did state earlier on the thread I was on Detroit.

I didn't like the SD/AZ game regardless of what public did. I thought about the over, but I wanted to just be happy with how well I did this week.

[WWCD]

Week 2 (Tues)

PITT@BAL 73% on BAL
DET@CAR 77% on DET
ARI@NYG 83% on ARI
NE@MIN 80% on NE
NO@CLE 87% on NO
ATL@CIN 72% on ATL
SEA@SD 91% on SEA
NYJ@GB 79% on GB
KC@DEN 81% on DEN
HOU@OAK 78% on HOU

My early leans:
PITT@BAL - Under 44.5 - I don't remember the last time they have hit 45 points or more.
ATL@CIN - CIN - They both have offense. Who has defense? CIN perfect at home. Public all over ATL. How often does a public dog hit?
NYJ@GB - When Jets lose, they lose big. Last year out of their 8 losses, only 1 game was below 8 points. Do they lose big here or win? I am with the public on this one.

PHI@IND - Not exactly "Public Heavy" though most are on IND (66%). Colts could not get a pass rush on Manning the statue, how are they going to apply pressure here? Now they go against in many ways a faster, more complex offense to prepare for. Indy defense may be back peddling the entire game. Over/Under is 53 so I assume lots of scoring. Both offenses can come right of nowhere and score points in a short amount of time. I'm going take the 3 here since I think the final score may end up within that range.

[odog11]

I did state earlier on the thread I was on Detroit.

I didn't like the SD/AZ game regardless of what public did. I thought about the over, but I wanted to just be happy with how well I did this week.

Sorry mang, missed the early post about Detroit and nice call passign on the over in SD/AZ game.

What are your numbers on Pitt/Bal showing now? I have seen between 61% to 80% on Pitt today.

[WWCD]

I show 74% on Pitt.

I like Baltimore here but not betting it. Might throw them in a small parlay though. I like the under much better.

[joeygats]

surprised so many are on pit tbh

[joeygats]

I show 74% on Pitt.

I like Baltimore here but not betting it. Might throw them in a small parlay though. I like the under much better.

so you are not gonna bet on buf/mia and dal/ten?

[WWCD]

BAL -2.5
Under 44.5

[joeygats]

BAL -2.5
Under 44.5

you are a beast man