2013 Correlation Handicapping System

[ny92mike]

The process I’m using is a calculated formula that uses stats from previous weeks to determine the next week’s outcome. When comparing the match up for each week the formula provides me with what I call a Strength Comparison Number (SCN). The SCN is then forecasted against prior season SCN results, 2009 to 2011 to be exact, to project a possible score for each team in the hopes of betting the spread.
Testing was calculated for 2010 and 2011 using SCN results using 2009 findings and the 2012 season was conducted using combined results from 2009, 2010, and 2011 with 66% ATS accuracy and 76.9% ATS when probability percentage is factored into the equation between weeks 9 and 17. I assume this is because it usually takes that long to truly start gauging how good a team really is, be it stats or what I’ve heard called the “eye test”. In doing my research and viewing the results I’ve noticed that the formula appears to get confused during weeks 5 thru 8 as you’ll see in the diagram below.

	Count	sum	%	Count	Sum	%
Week_05	14	5	35.7%	4	1	25.0%
Week_06	14	6	42.9%	3	1	33.3%
Week_07	13	2	15.4%	0	0
Week_08	14	3	21.4%	3	2	66.7%
Week_09	14	9	64.3%	5	3	60.0%
Week_10	14	9	64.3%	3	2	66.7%
Week_11	14	7	50.0%	3	3	100.0%
Week_12	16	12	75.0%	4	3	75.0%
Week_13	16	10	62.5%	4	3	75.0%
Week_14	16	11	68.8%	2	2	100.0%
Week_15	16	12	75.0%	5	4	80.0%
	106	70	66.0%	26	20	76.9%

For week two, the outcome has been most welcoming. Excluding Monday night’s game, the straight up was 64% accurate; ATS 71% accurate; ATS w/ Probability 70%; over / under managed to hit 64% accuracy and the Vegas Dif. (The difference between the projected line and that of the Vegas Line) landed at 70%. Now obviously, the formula isn’t going to hit like this every week as you can see in the chart above, it is sporadic at best in the early weeks of the season.

Weekly Schedule	Straight Up	Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Prob.	Over / Under	Vegas Dif.
Week_02 | StLouisRams @ AtlantaFalcons	0	Dog	0	58.52%	1	11.0
Week_02 | CarolinaPanthers @ BuffaloBills	1	Dog	1	44.66%	1	9.5
Week_02 | MinnesotaVikings @ ChicagoBears	1	Fav	0	42.55%	1	1.7
Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ IndianapolisColts	1	Dog	1	57.26%	0	7.0
Week_02 | WashingtonRedskins @ GreenBayPackers	1	Dog	1	46.43%	1	12.1
Week_02 | TennesseeTitans @ HoustonTexans	1	Dog	1	45.79%	1	2.9
Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ KansasCityChiefs	1	Dog	1	50.93%	1	2.0
Week_02 | SanDiegoChargers @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0	Dog	1	44.30%	1	1.2
Week_02 | ClevelandBrowns @ BaltimoreRavens	1	Fav	1	42.91%	1	0.4
Week_02 | DetroitLions @ ArizonaCardinals	1	Dog	1	51.71%	0	2.4
Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ TampaBayBuccaneers	0	Dog	1	52.02%	1	3.7
Week_02 | DenverBroncos @ NewYorkGiants	0	Dog	0	51.94%	1	4.7
Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ OaklandRaiders	1	Fav	1	45.36%	1	0.9
Week_02 | SanFrancisco49ers @ SeattleSeahawks	0	Dog	0	53.08%	1	3.7
Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ CincinnatiBengals
	Straight Up	Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Over / Under	Vegas Dif.
Count	14	67%	14	10	14	10
Sum	9	73%	10	7	9	7
Percentage	64%		71%	70%	64%	70%

The above listing shows the results from week 2, in columns “Straight Up”, “Against the Spread”, and “Over / Under” a 1 is displayed for the formula selecting a correct pick and a 0 for an incorrect pick. The ATS Prob. is the probability percentage of the formula making the correct selection. The Vegas Dif. is the difference between the projected Vegas line and the actual Vegas line.
The Lines used to determine this week’s wins are from Bovada http://sports.bovada.lv/ I’m sure there is probably a better site, if so please educate me.
I’m not completely sold on the O/U results from the system regardless the high percentage from this week. Reason being is when using the forecast formula to project the score the forecast will average out to 43 to 44 total points for each game throughout 3 years of data. I’m currently looking at other methods to find the over/ under. Also, I don’t suggest betting on games using this method until after week 8. I just wanted to get it out there so I could show a week to week result.
I keep bringing up past data which I’m sure that you want to check out as well, should you have any interest in my handicapping system. There are several lines of data so I’ll pull only 2009 results which is still 256 rows.

Week	Visiting SCN	Visiting Score	Home SCN	Home Score	O/U	Difference	Vegas Spread	Probability
week_10	-75.97	28	75.97	23	51	-5	-14.5	99%
week_05	-74.37	38	74.37	10	48	-28	-10.5	99%
week_07	-68.97	42	68.97	6	48	-36	-14.5	99%
week_11	-63.98	38	63.98	7	45	-31	-10.5	97%
week_17	-63.76	21	63.76	13	34	-8	-10	97%
week_12	-62.48	34	62.48	12	46	-22	-11.5	97%
week_07	-59.65	31	59.65	3	34	-28	-9	99%
week_01	-56.65	34	56.65	20	54	-14	-4.5	97%
week_13	-55.68	30	55.68	23	53	-7	-13.5	97%
week_03	-54.93	27	54.93	7	34	-20	-5.5	97%
week_07	-50.95	38	50.95	0	38	-38	-6	97%
week_10	-50.82	16	50.82	0	16	-16	-11	97%
week_15	-50.69	17	50.69	10	27	-7	-7	97%
week_05	-46.10	26	46.10	20	46	-6	-7	97%
week_03	-44.78	36	44.78	17	53	-19	-6.5	96%
week_17	-43.82	28	43.82	6	34	-22	-7	95%
week_14	-43.73	26	43.73	3	29	-23	-3.5	95%
week_03	-42.27	24	42.27	0	24	-24	-6.5	94%
week_15	-42.04	35	42.04	31	66	-4	-3	94%
week_01	-40.68	24	40.68	20	44	-4	-10	94%
week_07	-40.00	46	40.00	34	80	-12	-6.5	93%
week_06	-38.50	9	38.50	13	22	4	-14	92%
week_04	-38.45	27	38.45	16	43	-11	-9.5	92%
week_09	-38.43	28	38.43	38	66	10	-9.5	92%
week_08	-38.29	31	38.29	10	41	-21	-3.5	92%
week_13	-37.88	44	37.88	13	57	-31	-6	92%
week_11	-37.28	24	37.28	20	44	-4	-3.5	90%
week_06	-37.14	28	37.14	21	49	-7	-3	90%
week_16	-36.57	17	36.57	0	17	-17	-7	84%
week_05	-36.27	28	36.27	20	48	-8	-11	88%
week_07	-34.98	35	34.98	7	42	-28	-15.5	86%
week_02	-34.78	27	34.78	13	40	-14	-10	86%
week_13	-34.68	19	34.68	13	32	-6	-3.5	86%
week_15	-34.50	16	34.50	13	29	-3	-14	86%
week_07	-34.12	37	34.12	7	44	-30	-5.5	86%
week_16	-33.22	42	33.22	17	59	-25	2	88%
week_13	-29.67	33	29.67	30	63	-3	-8	85%
week_12	-29.65	27	29.65	17	44	-10	-3.5	85%
week_01	-28.88	34	28.88	21	55	-13	-5	84%
week_05	-28.79	31	28.79	9	40	-22	-3.5	83%
week_11	-28.54	21	28.54	13	34	-8	-9	85%
week_04	-28.32	23	28.32	20	43	-3	-6.5	84%
week_17	-27.93	7	27.93	30	37	23	8	80%
week_03	-27.54	23	27.54	3	26	-20	-2.5	83%
week_07	-26.28	27	26.28	17	44	-10	-9	85%
week_14	-25.13	21	25.13	14	35	-7	-4	86%
week_14	-24.79	26	24.79	23	49	-3	-10	79%
week_16	-23.66	30	23.66	36	66	6	-8.5	79%
week_16	-23.36	27	23.36	20	47	-7	2	79%
week_11	-22.96	17	22.96	20	37	3	-8.5	78%
week_17	-22.93	20	22.93	10	30	-10	-3	78%
week_01	-22.63	38	22.63	10	48	-28	-2.5	78%
week_11	-20.58	24	20.58	27	51	3	-11.5	76%
week_13	-20.57	34	20.57	7	41	-27	-4	76%
week_14	-20.57	34	20.57	13	47	-21	-2.5	76%
week_15	-20.01	31	20.01	24	55	-7	-14	74%
week_13	-19.96	21	19.96	22	43	1	-5	73%
week_06	-19.73	27	19.73	3	30	-24	3	71%
week_11	-19.71	32	19.71	3	35	-29	-6	71%
week_14	-19.63	6	19.63	13	19	7	-10	71%
week_03	-19.59	31	19.59	10	41	-21	3	71%
week_09	-19.13	21	19.13	20	41	-1	4.5	71%
week_13	-19.06	18	19.06	23	41	5	-1.5	68%
week_02	-18.08	27	18.08	23	50	-4	-3	63%
week_14	-17.49	45	17.49	38	83	-7	-1	72%
week_17	-17.24	10	17.24	23	33	13	10	71%
week_15	-17.09	45	17.09	12	57	-33	-3	68%
week_17	-16.24	33	16.24	7	40	-26	3	66%
week_15	-16.17	7	16.17	26	33	19	-9	68%
week_10	-15.32	17	15.32	27	44	10	-3.5	53%
week_17	-15.19	30	15.19	24	54	-6	-3	50%
week_15	-15.15	36	15.15	37	73	1	2.5	50%
week_09	-14.91	41	14.91	21	62	-20	3	56%
week_13	-14.77	17	14.77	30	47	13	-3	56%
week_09	-13.96	7	13.96	17	24	10	-3	62%
week_07	-13.68	17	13.68	27	44	10	6	63%
week_04	-13.54	28	13.54	38	66	10	5.5	60%
week_06	-13.30	28	13.30	17	45	-11	3.5	53%
week_04	-13.24	17	13.24	37	54	20	-3.5	48%
week_02	-13.10	31	13.10	17	48	-14	3	53%
week_02	-11.66	34	11.66	31	65	-3	7	31%
week_14	-11.49	20	11.49	17	37	-3	3.5	37%
week_05	-11.29	17	11.29	20	37	3	-3	45%
week_17	-11.12	37	11.12	23	60	-14	-4.5	50%
week_10	-11.04	16	11.04	10	26	-6	2.5	50%
week_02	-10.76	9	10.76	16	25	7	-3.5	31%
week_17	-10.53	17	10.53	13	30	-4	-6	31%
week_02	-9.98	14	9.98	17	31	3	-3	41%
week_12	-9.85	14	9.85	31	45	17	-3.5	41%
week_16	-9.78	20	9.78	23	43	3	3	41%
week_12	-9.63	35	9.63	27	62	-8	-3	37%
week_05	-9.19	27	9.19	31	58	4	-3	53%
week_13	-8.01	17	8.01	20	37	3	-1	58%
week_01	-7.65	12	7.65	7	19	-5	5	60%
week_05	-7.37	45	7.37	10	55	-35	1	62%
week_17	-6.83	27	6.83	34	61	7	7.5	71%
week_03	-6.18	14	6.18	19	33	5	-6	65%
week_05	-5.96	21	5.96	28	49	7	6	65%
week_14	-5.93	14	5.93	10	24	-4	2	65%
week_17	-5.77	0	5.77	24	24	24	3	65%
week_12	-5.70	17	5.70	20	37	3	2	60%
week_17	-5.44	17	5.44	23	40	6	2	58%
week_04	-5.19	10	5.19	17	27	7	-3	48%
week_03	-4.83	25	4.83	19	44	-6	-2.5	41%
week_02	-4.22	48	4.22	22	70	-26	-2.5	41%
week_03	-4.18	20	4.18	23	43	3	-3.5	45%
week_14	-4.07	9	4.07	24	33	15	-4	34%
week_13	-3.43	24	3.43	31	55	7	-1.5	37%
week_14	-2.47	16	2.47	10	26	-6	-2.5	48%
week_10	-2.13	19	2.13	28	47	9	-1	48%
week_10	-1.87	34	1.87	35	69	1	1.5	45%
week_11	-1.47	37	1.47	38	75	1	3	56%
week_04	-1.47	23	1.47	30	53	7	5	56%
week_15	-0.95	41	0.95	34	75	-7	3	65%
week_12	-0.57	6	0.57	26	32	20	-4.5	63%
week_11	-0.44	17	0.44	15	32	-2	-1.5	58%
week_08	0.26	34	-0.26	21	55	-13	10	53%
week_05	1.02	0	-1.02	41	41	41	2	28%
week_15	1.29	10	-1.29	7	17	-3	7	25%
week_15	1.47	24	-1.47	27	51	3	4.5	25%
week_05	1.52	6	-1.52	3	9	-3	5.5	24%
week_04	1.92	21	-1.92	27	48	6	2	20%
week_02	2.13	20	-2.13	28	48	8	5.5	24%
week_10	2.18	23	-2.18	31	54	8	1.5	22%
week_09	2.52	28	-2.52	10	38	-18	-3	27%
week_11	2.53	31	-2.53	34	65	3	7	27%
week_08	3.00	38	-3.00	26	64	-12	3	15%
week_12	3.05	17	-3.05	38	55	21	1.5	19%
week_12	3.42	6	-3.42	17	23	11	3.5	14%
week_01	3.61	24	-3.61	7	31	-17	4.5	15%
week_09	3.64	34	-3.64	27	61	-7	4	15%
week_06	3.91	31	-3.91	33	64	2	3	13%
week_11	3.92	15	-3.92	18	33	3	8.5	13%
week_16	4.65	41	-4.65	9	50	-32	8.5	20%
week_10	4.82	6	-4.82	10	16	4	3	24%
week_02	4.86	31	-4.86	26	57	-5	1	22%
week_07	4.88	24	-4.88	17	41	-7	8	22%
week_09	4.96	17	-4.96	20	37	3	8.5	21%
week_17	5.11	0	-5.11	37	37	37	10	25%
week_10	5.13	18	-5.13	12	30	-6	6.5	25%
week_02	5.18	20	-5.18	33	53	13	4	27%
week_13	5.37	14	-5.37	27	41	13	4	21%
week_01	5.57	20	-5.57	16	36	-4	4.5	19%
week_07	5.80	10	-5.80	45	55	35	-2	16%
week_07	5.95	21	-5.95	37	58	16	5	15%
week_09	6.40	21	-6.40	24	45	3	7	11%
week_01	6.79	10	-6.79	13	23	3	6.5	14%
week_08	7.39	13	-7.39	30	43	17	3	9%
week_16	7.51	9	-7.51	23	32	14	3	11%
week_02	7.65	33	-7.65	31	64	-2	3	10%
week_03	7.73	17	-7.73	24	41	7	1	9%
week_01	7.90	7	-7.90	19	26	12	4	6%
week_09	7.93	20	-7.93	32	52	12	10	6%
week_02	8.01	10	-8.01	23	33	13	1	6%
week_03	8.08	7	-8.08	21	28	14	8.5	4%
week_04	8.37	13	-8.37	16	29	3	9	4%
week_12	9.03	3	-9.03	20	23	17	3	1%
week_08	9.19	17	-9.19	40	57	23	-1	0%
week_08	9.37	7	-9.37	30	37	23	3.5	0%
week_14	9.42	16	-9.42	28	44	12	6.5	0%
week_06	9.53	14	-9.53	6	20	-8	6.5	1%
week_10	9.56	7	-9.56	17	24	10	-3	1%
week_06	9.62	14	-9.62	21	35	7	3.5	4%
week_08	9.65	6	-9.65	30	36	24	13.5	6%
week_12	9.78	17	-9.78	20	37	3	8	4%
week_09	9.84	20	-9.84	16	36	-4	3	4%
week_04	9.85	10	-9.85	38	48	28	1.5	4%
week_07	10.03	21	-10.03	24	45	3	3	8%
week_11	10.76	14	-10.76	31	45	17	11	9%
week_16	10.96	27	-10.96	30	57	3	7	12%
week_02	11.04	13	-11.04	10	23	-3	1.5	14%
week_04	11.12	24	-11.12	48	72	24	9.5	16%
week_10	11.32	17	-11.32	41	58	24	7.5	13%
week_17	11.51	7	-11.51	44	51	37	8	18%
week_11	11.66	20	-11.66	17	37	-3	3.5	24%
week_03	12.06	10	-12.06	26	36	16	4.5	31%
week_10	12.08	20	-12.08	31	51	11	8.5	31%
week_05	12.43	17	-12.43	20	37	3	5.5	37%
week_06	12.58	27	-12.58	48	75	21	3	37%
week_06	13.13	34	-13.13	23	57	-11	3.5	48%
week_11	13.15	24	-13.15	17	41	-7	3.5	48%
week_16	13.25	29	-13.25	15	44	-14	3	56%
week_04	13.82	10	-13.82	24	34	14	7.5	37%
week_05	13.96	17	-13.96	14	31	-3	9	31%
week_15	14.06	24	-14.06	17	41	-7	7.5	34%
week_14	14.18	10	-14.18	20	30	10	12.5	41%
week_09	14.56	17	-14.56	31	48	14	9	41%
week_02	14.71	7	-14.71	9	16	2	10	37%
week_08	14.89	17	-14.89	10	27	-7	4	34%
week_08	14.99	14	-14.99	18	32	4	13.5	31%
week_10	15.03	23	-15.03	25	48	2	10	34%
week_08	15.11	27	-15.11	35	62	8	12	28%
week_06	15.44	20	-15.44	23	43	3	9.5	31%
week_12	15.45	7	-15.45	16	23	9	12	31%
week_07	15.62	20	-15.62	9	29	-11	7	29%
week_16	15.94	6	-15.94	20	26	14	14	29%
week_16	16.40	10	-16.40	17	27	7	13	34%
week_01	16.46	0	-16.46	28	28	28	7	34%
week_15	16.52	13	-16.52	27	40	14	7.5	31%
week_13	16.62	17	-16.62	27	44	10	6	41%
week_13	16.92	13	-16.92	23	36	10	13.5	37%
week_01	17.09	17	-17.09	23	40	6	6	34%
week_09	17.24	20	-17.24	30	50	10	13	41%
week_15	17.66	24	-17.66	7	31	-17	6.5	58%
week_15	17.72	24	-17.72	27	51	3	7	62%
week_16	17.75	3	-17.75	31	34	28	8	60%
week_14	17.86	10	-17.86	30	40	20	6	58%
week_14	18.04	7	-18.04	34	41	27	7	58%
week_06	18.49	0	-18.49	59	59	59	9	53%
week_08	18.76	17	-18.76	38	55	21	9.5	60%
week_03	18.84	24	-18.84	27	51	3	7	58%
week_06	19.63	14	-19.63	27	41	13	14	74%
week_13	19.65	9	-19.65	17	26	8	9	73%
week_08	19.75	30	-19.75	25	55	-5	3.5	75%
week_15	19.75	7	-19.75	31	38	24	11	76%
week_09	19.96	17	-19.96	27	44	10	10.5	76%
week_02	20.03	6	-20.03	27	33	21	3	75%
week_11	20.31	24	-20.31	30	54	6	6	76%
week_11	20.51	6	-20.51	7	13	1	10.5	78%
week_13	20.80	6	-20.80	16	22	10	3.5	78%
week_03	21.80	13	-21.80	23	36	10	5.5	80%
week_14	22.84	7	-22.84	47	54	40	14	83%
week_12	22.93	17	-22.93	20	37	3	12.5	83%
week_04	23.00	17	-23.00	34	51	17	10.5	83%
week_12	23.66	10	-23.66	36	46	26	10	83%
week_01	24.01	12	-24.01	14	26	2	6	84%
week_01	25.13	15	-25.13	21	36	6	5	86%
week_16	25.89	7	-25.89	35	42	28	9	88%
week_12	26.28	24	-26.28	27	51	3	10	89%
week_11	26.85	9	-26.85	35	44	26	11	91%
week_16	28.32	10	-28.32	48	58	38	13.5	91%
week_17	28.46	20	-28.46	23	43	3	3	89%
week_16	28.54	10	-28.54	31	41	21	16	89%
week_10	28.79	24	-28.79	22	46	-2	6.5	89%
week_05	29.31	7	-29.31	44	51	37	15	89%
week_03	29.40	3	-29.40	34	37	31	13.5	88%
week_01	29.81	24	-29.81	25	49	1	13.5	89%
week_01	30.36	24	-30.36	38	62	14	13	90%
week_14	30.87	3	-30.87	48	51	45	14	91%
week_02	31.33	31	-31.33	24	55	-7	7.5	93%
week_03	31.94	14	-31.94	34	48	20	7.5	95%
week_03	32.40	31	-32.40	24	55	-7	4.5	95%
week_12	34.12	14	-34.12	43	57	29	13.5	95%
week_05	34.65	14	-34.65	33	47	19	15.5	95%
week_06	34.68	16	-34.68	13	29	-3	9.5	95%
week_10	34.78	10	-34.78	27	37	17	17	95%
week_01	35.85	27	-35.85	45	72	18	14	95%
week_06	36.25	0	-36.25	26	26	26	14	95%
week_17	37.88	44	-37.88	24	68	-20	10	97%
week_08	40.68	16	-40.68	24	40	8	16.5	99%
week_04	43.82	0	-43.82	35	35	35	9.5	99%
week_13	46.39	27	-46.39	24	51	-3	15	99%
week_15	48.91	20	-48.91	19	39	-1	14	99%
week_04	54.56	6	-54.56	29	35	23	8	99%
week_12	57.13	7	-57.13	24	31	17	13.5	99%
week_16	63.98	20	-63.98	17	37	-3	14	99%

[ny92mike]

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

PittsburghSteelers

na

0

7.428

18.6

43.6

0.7

44%

Dog

L

Over

7.00

#VALUE!

41.00

CincinnatiBengals

na

0

-7.428

24.9

W

Tonights game is a game that I wouldn't bet, the Vegas difference has a low margin and the probability percentage is under 50%. Nonetheless, it has projected a score of 18.6 Pit and 24.9 Cin. The data I used to acquire the spread list it as +7 Pit. When I change the spread to +6 it list the favorite taking the win.

Here are the results from last Thursday and Sundays games.

Projected Outcome Section.

Vegas Lines & Outcomes

Handicapping Results

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

St.LouisRams

24

55

L

-19.320

24.6

44.2

11.0

59%

Dog

W

Under

6.00

Fav

47.00

Over

0

0

0

AtlantaFalcons

31

55

W

19.320

19.6

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

CarolinaPanthers

23

47

L

6.716

18.8

43.6

9.5

45%

Dog

L

Over

-3.50

Dog

43.50

Over

1

1

1

BuffaloBills

24

47

W

-6.716

24.8

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

MinnesotaVikings

30

61

L

10.685

17.9

43.5

1.7

43%

Fav

L

Over

6.00

Dog

42.00

Over

0

1

1

ChicagoBears

31

61

W

-10.685

25.6

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

MiamiDolphins

24

44

W

-16.947

24.1

44.2

7.0

57%

Dog

W

Over

3.00

Dog

43.50

Over

1

1

1

IndianapolisColts

20

44

L

16.947

20.1

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

WashingtonRedskins

20

58

L

3.389

19.5

43.7

12.1

46%

Dog

L

Under

-7.50

Dog

50.00

Over

1

1

0

GreenBayPackers

38

58

W

-3.389

24.1

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

TennesseeTitans

24

54

L

4.588

19.3

43.6

2.9

46%

Dog

L

Over

8.00

Dog

43.00

Over

1

1

1

HoustonTexans

30

54

W

-4.588

24.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

DallasCowboys

16

33

L

-5.058

21.4

43.9

2.0

51%

Dog

L

Under

3.00

Dog

46.00

Under

1

1

1

KansasCityChiefs

17

33

W

5.058

22.5

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

SanDiegoChargers

33

63

W

7.394

18.6

43.6

1.2

44%

Dog

L

Under

7.50

Dog

53.50

Over

1

0

0

PhiladelphiaEagles

30

63

L

-7.394

24.9

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

ClevelandBrowns

6

20

L

10.001

18.1

43.5

0.4

43%

Fav

L

Under

7.00

Fav

44.00

Under

1

1

1

BaltimoreRavens

14

20

W

-10.001

25.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

DetroitLions

21

46

L

-6.527

21.7

43.9

2.4

52%

Dog

L

Under

-2.00

Dog

48.50

Under

1

1

1

ArizonaCardinals

25

46

W

6.527

22.2

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

NewOrleansSaints

16

30

W

-7.100

21.9

43.9

3.7

52%

Dog

L

Under

-3.50

Dog

48.00

Under

1

0

1

TampaBayBuccaneers

14

30

L

7.100

22.1

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

DenverBroncos

41

64

W

-6.951

21.8

43.9

4.7

52%

Dog

L

Under

-4.50

Fav

55.00

Over

0

0

0

NewYorkGiants

23

64

L

6.951

22.1

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

JacksonvilleJaguars

9

28

L

5.396

19.1

43.6

0.9

45%

Fav

L

Over

4.50

Fav

40.50

Under

1

1

0

OaklandRaiders

19

28

W

-5.396

24.5

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ATS

Str. Up

O/U

SanFrancisco49ers

3

32

L

-9.100

22.3

44.0

3.7

53%

Dog

W

Under

3.00

Fav

44.50

Under

0

0

1

SeattleSeahawks

29

32

W

9.100

21.7

L

[ny92mike]

2013 Correlation Week 2.xlsx

Went ahead and attached a copy of the excel v2010 file, its easier to see with the formatting included.

Look forward to your comments.

Thanks.

[a4u2fear]

I find it hard to trust when the Broncos were only estimated to score 22 when they torched Bal and NYG were torched last week.

[ny92mike]

I find it hard to trust when the Broncos were only estimated to score 22 when they torched Bal and NYG were torched last week.

The spread on the game was 4.5. Take into consideration it was in ny. The wasn't a large spread for the forecast to be a blow out.

[ny92mike]

Week 2 Results

Straight Up = 67% Correctly picking 10 out of the 15 games

Sides (Fav) = 67% / (Dog) = 67%

ATS = 67%

ATS w/ Probability (10 highest percentages) = 70%

ATS w/ Vegas Difference (10 highest point differentials) = 70%

Over/Under = 60% Correctly picking 9 out of the 15 games

I'll try to post week 3 just as soon as stats are posted.

Thanks

Weekly Schedule	Straight Up	Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Week_02 | StLouisRams @ AtlantaFalcons	0	Dog	0	58.52%	11.0	0
Week_02 | CarolinaPanthers @ BuffaloBills	1	Dog	1	44.66%	9.5	1
Week_02 | MinnesotaVikings @ ChicagoBears	1	Fav	0	42.55%	1.7	1
Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ IndianapolisColts	1	Dog	1	57.26%	7.0	1
Week_02 | WashingtonRedskins @ GreenBayPackers	1	Dog	1	46.43%	12.1	0
Week_02 | TennesseeTitans @ HoustonTexans	1	Dog	1	45.79%	2.9	1
Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ KansasCityChiefs	1	Dog	1	50.93%	2.0	1
Week_02 | SanDiegoChargers @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0	Dog	1	44.30%	1.2	0
Week_02 | ClevelandBrowns @ BaltimoreRavens	1	Fav	1	42.91%	0.4	1
Week_02 | DetroitLions @ ArizonaCardinals	1	Dog	1	51.71%	2.4	1
Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ TampaBayBuccaneers	0	Dog	1	52.02%	3.7	1
Week_02 | DenverBroncos @ NewYorkGiants	0	Dog	0	51.94%	4.7	0
Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ OaklandRaiders	1	Fav	1	45.36%	0.9	0
Week_02 | SanFrancisco49ers @ SeattleSeahawks	0	Dog	0	53.08%	3.7	1
Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ CincinnatiBengals	1	Dog	0	44.28%	0.7	0
	Straight Up	Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Count	15	67%	15	10	10	15
Sum	10	67%	10	7	7	9
Percentage	67%		67%	70%	70%	60%

[ny92mike]

Week 3

Just my luck...the nfl.com site where I retrive the stats for each week is not displaying all 32 teams for each stat line. I'm hoping that they get it figured out before sunday, so this weeks projections will be based off of week 1 stats. If the site is corrected anytime soon I'll repost the projections.


The projected outcomes is listed below with a match up breakdown listed below that.

GL.

Weekly Schedule	Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Week_03 | KansasCityChiefs @ PhiladelphiaEagles	Fav	0	47%	1.7	1
Week_03 | NewYorkGiants @ CarolinaPanthers	Dog	1	100%	5.2	1
Week_03 | GreenBayPackers @ CincinnatiBengals	Dog	1	80%	3.4	1
Week_03 | StLouisRams @ DallasCowboys	Fav	0	33%	2.3	1
Week_03 | ClevelandBrowns @ MinnesotaVikings	Fav	0	13%	2.0	0
Week_03 | ArizonaCardinals @ NewOrleansSaints	Dog	1	53%	2.6	1
Week_03 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ NewEnglandPatriots	Dog	1	40%	1.6	1
Week_03 | SanDiegoChargers @ TennesseeTitans	Fav	0	60%	0.1	0
Week_03 | HoustonTexans @ BaltimoreRavens	Dog	1	67%	5.6	1
Week_03 | DetroitLions @ WashingtonRedskins	Dog	1	87%	2.6	1
Week_03 | AtlantaFalcons @ MiamiDolphins	Fav	0	20%	3.5	1
Week_03 | BuffaloBills @ NewYorkJets	Fav	0	73%	0.6	0
Week_03 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ SeattleSeahawks	Dog	1	27%	12.7	0
Week_03 | IndianapolisColts @ SanFrancisco49ers	Dog	1	7%	2.4	1
Week_03 | ChicagoBears @ PittsburghSteelers	Dog	1	93%	0.3	0
Week_03 | OaklandRaiders @ DenverBroncos	Dog	1	0%	6.5	1
	Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Count	0%	16	10	10	16
Sum	100%	10	7	8	11
Percentage		63%	70%	80%	69%

Projected Outcome Section.

Vegas Lines & Outcomes

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

KansasCityChiefs

0

0

L

3.653

19.5

43.7

1.7

46%

Fav

L

Under

3.0

Dog

51.0

Under

PhiladelphiaEagles

0

0

L

-3.653

24.2

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

NewYorkGiants

0

0

L

-17.473

24.2

44.2

5.2

58%

Dog

W

Under

1.0

Dog

46.0

Under

CarolinaPanthers

0

0

L

17.473

20.0

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

GreenBayPackers

0

0

L

-5.407

21.5

43.9

3.4

51%

Dog

L

Under

-2.5

Dog

48.5

Under

CincinnatiBengals

0

0

L

5.407

22.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

St.LouisRams

0

0

L

6.350

18.9

43.6

2.3

45%

Fav

L

Under

3.5

Dog

47.5

Under

DallasCowboys

0

0

L

-6.350

24.7

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ClevelandBrowns

0

0

L

10.227

18.0

43.5

2.0

43%

Fav

L

Over

5.5

Dog

41.0

Under

MinnesotaVikings

0

0

L

-10.227

25.5

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ArizonaCardinals

0

0

L

3.010

19.6

43.7

2.6

47%

Dog

L

Under

7.0

Dog

48.5

Under

NewOrleansSaints

0

0

L

-3.010

24.1

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

TampaBayBuccaneers

0

0

L

5.201

19.1

43.6

1.6

45%

Dog

L

Under

7.0

Dog

44.0

Under

NewEnglandPatriots

0

0

L

-5.201

24.5

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

SanDiegoChargers

0

0

L

-0.069

20.3

43.7

0.1

48%

Fav

L

Over

3.0

Dog

43.5

Under

TennesseeTitans

0

0

L

0.069

23.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

HoustonTexans

0

0

L

-0.081

20.3

43.7

5.6

48%

Dog

L

Under

-2.5

Dog

44.5

Under

BaltimoreRavens

0

0

L

0.081

23.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

DetroitLions

0

0

L

-11.366

22.8

44.0

2.6

54%

Dog

W

Under

1.0

Dog

49.0

Under

WashingtonRedskins

0

0

L

11.366

21.2

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

AtlantaFalcons

0

0

L

7.841

18.5

43.6

3.5

44%

Fav

L

Under

3.0

Dog

44.5

Under

MiamiDolphins

0

0

L

-7.841

25.0

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

BuffaloBills

0

0

L

-0.129

20.3

43.8

0.6

48%

Fav

L

Over

2.5

Dog

39.0

Under

NewYorkJets

0

0

L

0.129

23.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

JacksonvilleJaguars

0

0

L

7.332

18.7

43.6

12.7

44%

Dog

L

Over

19.0

Dog

41.0

Under

SeattleSeahawks

0

0

L

-7.332

24.9

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

IndianapolisColts

0

0

L

10.419

18.0

43.5

2.4

43%

Dog

L

Under

10.0

Dog

46.0

Under

SanFrancisco49ers

0

0

L

-10.419

25.5

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ChicagoBears

0

0

L

-12.782

23.1

44.1

0.3

55%

Dog

W

Over

-2.5

Dog

40.5

Under

PittsburghSteelers

0

0

L

12.782

20.9

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

OaklandRaiders

0

0

L

12.544

17.5

43.4

6.5

42%

Dog

L

Under

15.0

Dog

49.5

Under

DenverBroncos

0

0

L

-12.544

25.9

W

[ny92mike]

Revised Week 3

Looks like the nfl.com site finally got it figured out and are listing all 32 teams with the exception of kick returns.

Here is the new projections with the up to date statistics.

Thanks.

Weekly Schedule	Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Week_03 | KansasCityChiefs @ PhiladelphiaEagles	Fav	0	7%	8.0	1
Week_03 | NewYorkGiants @ CarolinaPanthers	Dog	1	80%	2.4	1
Week_03 | GreenBayPackers @ CincinnatiBengals	Fav	0	93%	0.8	1
Week_03 | StLouisRams @ DallasCowboys	Fav	0	27%	0.2	1
Week_03 | ClevelandBrowns @ MinnesotaVikings	Fav	0	0%	7.9	0
Week_03 | ArizonaCardinals @ NewOrleansSaints	Dog	1	47%	4.8	1
Week_03 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ NewEnglandPatriots	Dog	1	40%	3.6	1
Week_03 | SanDiegoChargers @ TennesseeTitans	Dog	1	87%	4.8	0
Week_03 | HoustonTexans @ BaltimoreRavens	Dog	1	60%	3.5	1
Week_03 | DetroitLions @ WashingtonRedskins	Dog	1	73%	1.5	1
Week_03 | AtlantaFalcons @ MiamiDolphins	Fav	0	33%	0.5	1
Week_03 | BuffaloBills @ NewYorkJets	Dog	1	67%	2.1	0
Week_03 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ SeattleSeahawks	Dog	1	20%	11.2	0
Week_03 | IndianapolisColts @ SanFrancisco49ers	Dog	1	53%	8.1	1
Week_03 | ChicagoBears @ PittsburghSteelers	Fav	0	100%	1.5	0
Week_03 | OaklandRaiders @ DenverBroncos	Dog	1	13%	4.8	1
	Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Count	0%	16	10	10	16
Sum	100%	10	8	8	11
Percentage		63%	80%	80%	69%

Projected Outcome Section.

Vegas Lines & Outcomes

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

KansasCityChiefs

0

0

L

18.670

16.1

43.3

8.0

38%

Fav

L

Under

3.0

Dog

51.0

Under

PhiladelphiaEagles

0

0

L

-18.670

27.2

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

NewYorkGiants

0

0

L

-10.922

22.7

44.0

2.4

54%

Dog

W

Under

1.0

Dog

46.0

Under

CarolinaPanthers

0

0

L

10.922

21.3

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

GreenBayPackers

0

0

L

-15.405

23.7

44.1

0.8

56%

Fav

W

Under

-2.5

Dog

48.5

Under

CincinnatiBengals

0

0

L

15.405

20.4

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

St.LouisRams

0

0

L

1.156

20.0

43.7

0.2

48%

Fav

L

Under

3.5

Dog

47.5

Under

DallasCowboys

0

0

L

-1.156

23.7

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ClevelandBrowns

0

0

L

24.244

14.9

43.2

7.9

35%

Fav

L

Over

5.5

Dog

41.0

Under

MinnesotaVikings

0

0

L

-24.244

28.3

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ArizonaCardinals

0

0

L

-2.317

20.8

43.8

4.8

49%

Dog

L

Under

7.0

Dog

48.5

Under

NewOrleansSaints

0

0

L

2.317

23.0

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

TampaBayBuccaneers

0

0

L

0.460

20.2

43.7

3.6

48%

Dog

L

Under

7.0

Dog

44.0

Under

NewEnglandPatriots

0

0

L

-0.460

23.6

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

SanDiegoChargers

0

0

L

-11.841

22.9

44.0

4.8

55%

Dog

W

Over

3.0

Dog

43.5

Under

TennesseeTitans

0

0

L

11.841

21.1

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

HoustonTexans

0

0

L

-5.173

21.4

43.9

3.5

51%

Dog

L

Under

-2.5

Dog

44.5

Under

BaltimoreRavens

0

0

L

5.173

22.4

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

DetroitLions

0

0

L

-8.760

22.2

44.0

1.5

53%

Dog

W

Under

1.0

Dog

49.0

Under

WashingtonRedskins

0

0

L

8.760

21.7

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

AtlantaFalcons

0

0

L

0.826

20.1

43.7

0.5

48%

Fav

L

Under

3.0

Dog

44.5

Under

MiamiDolphins

0

0

L

-0.826

23.6

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

BuffaloBills

0

0

L

-6.626

21.8

43.9

2.1

52%

Dog

L

Over

2.5

Dog

39.0

Under

NewYorkJets

0

0

L

6.626

22.1

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

JacksonvilleJaguars

0

0

L

10.975

17.8

43.5

11.2

42%

Dog

L

Over

19.0

Dog

41.0

Under

SeattleSeahawks

0

0

L

-10.975

25.6

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

IndianapolisColts

0

0

L

-3.048

21.0

43.8

8.1

50%

Dog

L

Under

10.0

Dog

46.0

Under

SanFrancisco49ers

0

0

L

3.048

22.9

W

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

ChicagoBears

0

0

L

-17.020

24.1

44.2

1.5

57%

Fav

W

Over

-2.5

Dog

40.5

Under

PittsburghSteelers

0

0

L

17.020

20.1

L

Team

Actual Score

Total

W/L

Str. Comp. Number

P. Score

P. Total

Vegas Dif.

Prob. %

P ATS Side

Str. Up

P. O/U

Line

ATS Winner

O/U

O/U Result

OaklandRaiders

0

0

L

16.624

16.6

43.3

4.8

39%

Dog

L

Under

15.0

Dog

49.5

Under

DenverBroncos

0

0

L

-16.624

26.8

W

[ny92mike]

I find it hard to trust when the Broncos were only estimated to score 22 when they torched Bal and NYG were torched last week.

I know this thread isn't getting much attention but you got me thinking about how close the projected scores were to each other. So I'm trying to refine the process. I'm seeing some correlations in this process but know that it hasn't been back tested. I'm going to go ahead and list this weeks changes below and if it is successful I'll continue to post this version.

Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
NewYorkGiants	21.9	39.3	5.5	0.5	Dog	W	Under
CarolinaPanthers	17.4					L
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
GreenBayPackers	23.5	47.2	2.7	0.6	Dog	L	Under
CincinnatiBengals	23.7					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
St.LouisRams	21.8	49.7	2.6	0.5	Fav	L	Over
DallasCowboys	27.9					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
ClevelandBrowns	8.1	34.8	13.2	0.4	Fav	L	Under
MinnesotaVikings	26.8					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
ArizonaCardinals	20.8	47.4	1.1	0.5	Dog	L	Under
NewOrleansSaints	26.7					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
TampaBayBuccaneers	19.1	41.8	3.4	0.5	Dog	L	Under
NewEnglandPatriots	22.7					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
SanDiegoChargers	22.6	47.2	1.0	0.5	Dog	L	Over
TennesseeTitans	24.6					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
HoustonTexans	21.4	47.0	6.8	0.5	Dog	L	Over
BaltimoreRavens	25.6					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
DetroitLions	22.5	46.8	0.9	0.5	Fav	L	Under
WashingtonRedskins	24.4					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
AtlantaFalcons	23.0	50.7	1.8	0.5	Fav	L	Over
MiamiDolphins	27.8					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
BuffaloBills	19.2	38.0	2.9	0.5	Dog	W	Under
NewYorkJets	18.8					L
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
JacksonvilleJaguars	13.9	38.6	8.1	0.4	Dog	L	Under
SeattleSeahawks	24.7					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
IndianapolisColts	19.5	40.9	8.1	0.5	Dog	L	Under
SanFrancisco49ers	21.4					W
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
ChicagoBears	22.0	43.4	1.9	0.6	Dog	W	Over
PittsburghSteelers	21.4					L
Match Up	Projected Score	P. Total	Vegas Dif.	Prob. %	P ATS Side	Str. Up	P. O/U
OaklandRaiders	12.9	38.9	1.9	0.4	Dog	L	Under
DenverBroncos	26.0					W

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Great stuff ill watch it...have a few alreadyof your probables

[ny92mike]

Great stuff ill watch it...have a few alreadyof your probables

Thanks man and gl

[BlitzTheBooks]

Subscribed. GL.

[ny92mike]

Subscribed. GL.

Thanks...you too.

[ny92mike]

Injuries

I'm currently working on a formula that I can merge with the SCN that will account for injuries but before I start posting that information I'll be sure and back test it.

My knee jerk reaction is to change the individual correlation result for that stat line. For example every stat line is calculated into a number (2 being the best and 1 being the worst). So lets say GB takes a qb hit, it would drop the number from 1.97 to 1.48 a 25% decrease.

Any thoughts?

[steel26]

Im lost. Need the direction to the system and how to read the spreadsheet

[ny92mike]

Im lost. Need the direction to the system and how to read the spreadsheet

I'm working on trying to get the layout better, not a fan of the way it looks right now either.

Although, I'm not really sure I care to discuss it all that much, it bombed today.


With the exception of tonights game the results are listed below.

Straight Up = 60%

Sides (Fav) = 67% / (Dog) = 33%

ATS = 40%

ATS w/ Probability (10 highest percentages) = 40%

ATS w/ Vegas Difference (10 highest point differentials) = 50%

Over/Under = 80%

Weekly Schedule	Straight Up		Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Week_03 | KansasCityChiefs @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0		Dog	0	7%	14.0	1
Week_03 | NewYorkGiants @ CarolinaPanthers	0		Dog	0	79%	5.9	1
Week_03 | GreenBayPackers @ CincinnatiBengals	0		Dog	1	93%	10.8	0
Week_03 | StLouisRams @ DallasCowboys	1		Dog	0	21%	2.3	1
Week_03 | ClevelandBrowns @ MinnesotaVikings	0		Fav	0	0%	6.4	1
Week_03 | ArizonaCardinals @ NewOrleansSaints	1		Fav	1	43%	0.2	1
Week_03 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ NewEnglandPatriots	1		Dog	0	36%	0.1	1
Week_03 | SanDiegoChargers @ TennesseeTitans	0		Dog	1	86%	9.3	0
Week_03 | HoustonTexans @ BaltimoreRavens	1		Dog	1	57%	9.0	1
Week_03 | DetroitLions @ WashingtonRedskins	1		Dog	0	71%	1.5	1
Week_03 | AtlantaFalcons @ MiamiDolphins	1		Dog	1	29%	9.5	0
Week_03 | BuffaloBills @ NewYorkJets	1		Dog	0	64%	3.1	1
Week_03 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ SeattleSeahawks	1		Fav	1	14%	3.3	1
Week_03 | IndianapolisColts @ SanFrancisco49ers	0		Dog	0	50%	4.9	1
Week_03 | ChicagoBears @ PittsburghSteelers	1		Dog	0	100%	2.0	1
Week_03 | OaklandRaiders @ DenverBroncos
	Straight Up		Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Vegas Dif.	Over / Under
Count	15		67%	15	10	10	15
Sum	9		33%	6	4	5	12
Percentage	60%			40%	40%	50%	80%

The other method I posted earlier did slightly better in ATS (50%) but much worse in the over/ Under (53%). I'd love to chalk this week up to just some messed up blown out games but I'll stand behind this crap week. Anyway, since this method did project a slightly better ATS I'll post it again this week as soon as stats are available.

Hopefully no one got killed today using this system.

[ny92mike]

YTD record

	Games	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	30	20	10	67%
Over/ Under	30	21	9	70%
ATS	30	16	14	53%
ATS w/ Probability	20	11	9	55%
ATS w/ Vegas Dif.	20	12	8	60%

[bosoxbruce]

Very interesting! I use a very similar formula and spreadsheet to calculate my games as well. Interesting that on some games we have almost identical projected outcomes. Currently, I'm trying to fine tune my ranking system, which I will use as an indicator of which games to play. Currently I'm 33-12-2 overall and 19-2-1 in the preferred plays. At this point I'm not sure if the numbers are just dumb luck or iwill hold up over the long haul. I have used a similar formula to calculate totals in the NBA over the last two years and it has held steady at a 65% clip. Anyways good luck to you I think you are on to something!

[ny92mike]

Very interesting! I use a very similar formula and spreadsheet to calculate my games as well. Interesting that on some games we have almost identical projected outcomes. Currently, I'm trying to fine tune my ranking system, which I will use as an indicator of which games to play. Currently I'm 33-12-2 overall and 19-2-1 in the preferred plays. At this point I'm not sure if the numbers are just dumb luck or iwill hold up over the long haul. I have used a similar formula to calculate totals in the NBA over the last two years and it has held steady at a 65% clip. Anyways good luck to you I think you are on to something!

Thanks for the vote of encouragement. Are you posting your picks and results in the forum? Would love to see.

[bosoxbruce]

I only posted my top 4 last week. This week I'm looking at Vikes,Bills,Boys,Raiders,Rams,Jets and Cards. Ill be working to cut that down to 3-4 by Sunday http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-week-3-a.html

[ny92mike]

I only posted my top 4 last week. This week I'm looking at Vikes,Bills,Boys,Raiders,Rams,Jets and Cards. Ill be working to cut that down to 3-4 by Sunday http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-week-3-a.html

Thanks for the link. Ill subscribe shortly, on the cell at the moment. Trying to finish up a mix of projects I'm working on in excel to see which one pans out better over the season. Also trying to make it a bit more readable for those watching it.

Still haven't worked a way to account for injuries just yet but I will eventually as it is a must.

[ny92mike]

Week 4 Projections

I'll be posting two projections for the week the first is the same method as the last two weeks. The second is a grouped score projection, it falls in line with my original work with some minor changes. Looking to see if these changes have any effect. The second one has blanks in the ats section, thats because the projected matchup is equal to the spread basically a push.

Hopefully this method will be a bit easier to understand, if not please let me know.

Thanks and Good Luck.

This week I've got two games, SF vs STL and Pit vs Min as my highest percentage to beat the spread. I'm going to parlay these two games and make single bet wagers on the probability percentages greater than or equal to 70%.

WEEK_04			Forecast Projections
				>=70%	>=7.0
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_04 | SanFrancisco49ers @ StLouisRams	-4.0	42.5	St.LouisRams	100%	9.6	St.LouisRams	Over
Week_04 | BaltimoreRavens @ BuffaloBills	-3.5	43.5	BuffaloBills	50%	2.3	BaltimoreRavens	Over
Week_04 | CincinnatiBengals @ ClevelandBrowns	-5.0	42.5	CincinnatiBengals	29%	2.0	CincinnatiBengals	Over
Week_04 | ChicagoBears @ DetroitLions	2.5	48.5	ChicagoBears	64%	4.4	ChicagoBears	Under
Week_04 | SeattleSeahawks @ HoustonTexans	-3.0	43.0	SeattleSeahawks	14%	1.9	SeattleSeahawks	Over
Week_04 | IndianapolisColts @ JacksonvilleJaguars	-9.5	43.0	JacksonvilleJaguars	79%	5.8	IndianapolisColts	Over
Week_04 | NewYorkGiants @ KansasCityChiefs	5.0	44.0	KansasCityChiefs	36%	2.1	KansasCityChiefs	Under
Week_04 | PittsburghSteelers @ MinnesotaVikings	-1.0	42.0	MinnesotaVikings	93%	7.0	MinnesotaVikings	Over
Week_04 | ArizonaCardinals @ TampaBayBuccaneers	2.5	41.0	ArizonaCardinals	43%	2.2	TampaBayBuccaneers	Over
Week_04 | NewYorkJets @ TennesseeTitans	4.0	39.0	TennesseeTitans	7%	1.8	TennesseeTitans	Over
Week_04 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ DenverBroncos	11.5	58.0	PhiladelphiaEagles	86%	6.0	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_04 | WashingtonRedskins @ OaklandRaiders	-3.0	47.0	OaklandRaiders	57%	3.3	OaklandRaiders	Under
Week_04 | DallasCowboys @ SanDiegoChargers	-2.5	46.5	SanDiegoChargers	21%	1.9	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_04 | NewEnglandPatriots @ AtlantaFalcons	1.5	49.5	AtlantaFalcons	0%	0.5	AtlantaFalcons	Under
Week_04 | MiamiDolphins @ NewOrleansSaints	6.5	48.0	MiamiDolphins	71%	4.8	NewOrleansSaints	Under
WEEK_04			Grouped Score Projections
				>=70%	>=2.0
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_04 | SanFrancisco49ers @ StLouisRams	-4.0	42.5	St.LouisRams	100%	8.1	St.LouisRams	Under
Week_04 | BaltimoreRavens @ BuffaloBills	-3.5	43.5	BuffaloBills	46%	3.7	BuffaloBills	Over
Week_04 | CincinnatiBengals @ ClevelandBrowns	-5.0	42.5	CincinnatiBengals	0%	0.2	CincinnatiBengals	Under
Week_04 | ChicagoBears @ DetroitLions	2.5	48.5	ChicagoBears	62%	4.6	ChicagoBears	Over
Week_04 | SeattleSeahawks @ HoustonTexans	-3.0	43.0	SeattleSeahawks	31%	1.3	SeattleSeahawks	Over
Week_04 | IndianapolisColts @ JacksonvilleJaguars	-9.5	43.0	JacksonvilleJaguars	77%	5.6	IndianapolisColts	Under
Week_04 | NewYorkGiants @ KansasCityChiefs	5.0	44.0	KansasCityChiefs	38%	2.7	KansasCityChiefs	Under
Week_04 | PittsburghSteelers @ MinnesotaVikings	-1.0	42.0	MinnesotaVikings	69%	5.2	MinnesotaVikings	Under
Week_04 | ArizonaCardinals @ TampaBayBuccaneers	2.5	41.0				TampaBayBuccaneers	Under
Week_04 | NewYorkJets @ TennesseeTitans	4.0	39.0	TennesseeTitans	23%	0.7	TennesseeTitans	Over
Week_04 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ DenverBroncos	11.5	58.0	PhiladelphiaEagles	92%	6.8	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_04 | WashingtonRedskins @ OaklandRaiders	-3.0	47.0	OaklandRaiders	54%	3.8	OaklandRaiders	Over
Week_04 | DallasCowboys @ SanDiegoChargers	-2.5	46.5	DallasCowboys	15%	0.4	DallasCowboys	Over
Week_04 | NewEnglandPatriots @ AtlantaFalcons	1.5	49.5	AtlantaFalcons	8%	0.3	AtlantaFalcons	Under
Week_04 | MiamiDolphins @ NewOrleansSaints	6.5	48.0	MiamiDolphins	85%	6.2	NewOrleansSaints	Over

[ny92mike]

I only posted my top 4 last week. This week I'm looking at Vikes,Bills,Boys,Raiders,Rams,Jets and Cards. Ill be working to cut that down to 3-4 by Sunday http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-week-3-a.html

It seems that both of us are locked in on stl, buf, min, ari, oak with the differences being my formula picked sd over dal and ten over jets however both are with low probability percentages of 21% and 7% respectfully. The two highest percentages are stl and min.

[bosoxbruce]

Yeah, I'm ready to finalize my picks...St. Louie, Minnie, Buffalo and Zona are my strongest plays and they all fit the game theory model I use. Anyways those are the four I will be playing, also going to sprinkle a little on the U42 tonight. Good Luck to you this week sir!

[ny92mike]

Yeah, I'm ready to finalize my picks...St. Louie, Minnie, Buffalo and Zona are my strongest plays and they all fit the game theory model I use. Anyways those are the four I will be playing, also going to sprinkle a little on the U42 tonight. Good Luck to you this week sir!

Rough start for the system this week. Believe this is the second week in a row if not third that the formula projected a 100 percent probability and the score was on opposite sides. I'm hoping that by week 7 or so teams start to settle into their rankings. Until then I'm going to start looking for those teams that are and focus my bets accordingly. Seems the only thing hitting right with any consistency is the over under.

Lets hope this sunday is improved.

[bosoxbruce]

2nd week in row the preferred plays went 3-1,not sure how the system did as a whole plan on reviewing in the morning.

[ny92mike]

2nd week in row the preferred plays went 3-1,not sure how the system did as a whole plan on reviewing in the morning.

Wish I could say the same. My probabilities with the exception of monday night netted a whopping 25% accurate, as a whole the best I could hope for would be 53% (pending mondays game). For certain the games with the large spreads (ind vs jag and phi vs den; this week) aren't hitting at all. Little discouraging with the recent results but the model is designed to get better in the later weeks. Personally, I think its because teams are still struggling to figure out if they're a below or above average team.

In your system, do you tend to avoid the high point spreads? Avoiding those would have definitely increased my percentage. I will say that posting in the forum, has me looking at some other things such as divisional, conf. or non-conf type games.

Anyway congrats to having what seems to be a successful system.

[ny92mike]

Week 4 results

For the forecast system the results were below average. Week 9 can't get here fast enough.

Landing 47% on the straight up; 47% ats; 20% ats w/ probability; 50% STD; and 33% over/ under.

YTD results below.

Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	45	27	18	60%
Over/ Under	45	26	19	58%
ATS	45	23	22	51%
ATS w/ Probability	25	12	13	48%
ATS w/ STD	22	13	9	59%

[ny92mike]

Week 5 Projections

Here are the projections for week 5. Not a fan of leaving Jacksonville at 11.5 as the system has usually been wrong on that account but am going to leave showing here.

WEEK_05			Forecast Projections
				>=70%	>=9.2
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_05 | BuffaloBills @ ClevelandBrowns	4.0	40.5	BuffaloBills	100%	9.6	BuffaloBills	Over
Week_05 | NewOrleansSaints @ ChicagoBears	1.0	48.0	NewOrleansSaints	31%	2.6	NewOrleansSaints	Under
Week_05 | NewEnglandPatriots @ CincinnatiBengals	1.5	45.0	NewEnglandPatriots	85%	8.0	NewEnglandPatriots	Under
Week_05 | SeattleSeahawks @ IndianapolisColts	-3.0	43.5	IndianapolisColts	62%	6.7	IndianapolisColts	Under
Week_05 | DetroitLions @ GreenBayPackers	7.0	53.5	DetroitLions	92%	9.2	DetroitLions	Under
Week_05 | BaltimoreRavens @ MiamiDolphins	3.0	43.5	MiamiDolphins	0%	0.8	MiamiDolphins	Over
Week_05 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ NewYorkGiants	2.0	53.0	PhiladelphiaEagles	77%	7.1	PhiladelphiaEagles	Under
Week_05 | KansasCityChiefs @ TennesseeTitans	-3.0	38.5	TennesseeTitans	23%	1.9	KansasCityChiefs	Over
Week_05 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ StLouisRams	11.5	41.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	69%	6.8	St.LouisRams	Over
Week_05 | CarolinaPanthers @ ArizonaCardinals	-1.5	43.0	ArizonaCardinals	8%	0.8	CarolinaPanthers	Over
Week_05 | DenverBroncos @ DallasCowboys	-7.0	56.0	DallasCowboys	54%	5.6	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_05 | SanDiegoChargers @ OaklandRaiders	-4.5	45.0	SanDiegoChargers	15%	1.3	SanDiegoChargers	Under
Week_05 | HoustonTexans @ SanFrancisco49ers	6.0	41.5	HoustonTexans	46%	5.4	SanFrancisco49ers	Over
Week_05 | NewYorkJets @ AtlantaFalcons	9.5	43.5	AtlantaFalcons	38%	4.6	AtlantaFalcons	Under
WEEK_05			Grouped Score Projections
				>=70%	>=2.0
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_05 | BuffaloBills @ ClevelandBrowns	4.0	40.5	BuffaloBills	38%	3.2	ClevelandBrowns	Over
Week_05 | NewOrleansSaints @ ChicagoBears	1.0	48.0	NewOrleansSaints	31%	3.1	NewOrleansSaints	Over
Week_05 | NewEnglandPatriots @ CincinnatiBengals	1.5	45.0	NewEnglandPatriots	46%	3.2	NewEnglandPatriots	Under
Week_05 | SeattleSeahawks @ IndianapolisColts	-3.0	43.5	IndianapolisColts	54%	3.3	IndianapolisColts	Over
Week_05 | DetroitLions @ GreenBayPackers	7.0	53.5	DetroitLions	92%	9.1	DetroitLions	Under
Week_05 | BaltimoreRavens @ MiamiDolphins	3.0	43.5	BaltimoreRavens	23%	2.7	MiamiDolphins	Under
Week_05 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ NewYorkGiants	2.0	53.0	PhiladelphiaEagles	69%	5.9	PhiladelphiaEagles	Under
Week_05 | KansasCityChiefs @ TennesseeTitans	-3.0	38.5	KansasCityChiefs	15%	1.1	KansasCityChiefs	Over
Week_05 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ StLouisRams	11.5	41.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	100%	9.5	St.LouisRams	Under
Week_05 | CarolinaPanthers @ ArizonaCardinals	-1.5	43.0	CarolinaPanthers	8%	0.9	CarolinaPanthers	Under
Week_05 | DenverBroncos @ DallasCowboys	-7.0	56.0	DallasCowboys	77%	7.0	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_05 | SanDiegoChargers @ OaklandRaiders	-4.5	45.0	SanDiegoChargers	0%	0.7	SanDiegoChargers	Under
Week_05 | HoustonTexans @ SanFrancisco49ers	6.0	41.5	HoustonTexans	62%	5.3	SanFrancisco49ers	Over
Week_05 | NewYorkJets @ AtlantaFalcons	9.5	43.5	NewYorkJets	85%	7.8	AtlantaFalcons	Over

GL

[ny92mike]

I've got to work on getting injuries factored into this system. Its killing my projections. Taking the Detroit and Tennessee games out along with the Jax game, who hasn't covered the spread yet or at least it seems that way. I might actually be getting ahead. I mean, I can see the injuries and such and avoid picking that team but I'm posting each game in the forum regardless of injury or how consistent a team has been performing based on my projections.

Can't say I'll have it set up heading into Monday nights game but I'll try to get it worked out before next weekend.

[ny92mike]

Week 5 Results

Week 5 Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	13	7	6	54%
Over/ Under	13	8	5	62%
ATS	13	6	7	46%
ATS w/ Probability	4	1	3	25%
ATS w/ STD	2	0	2	0%
Year to Date Results
Games	Games Played	Wins	Loss	Win %
Straight Up	58	34	24	59%
Over/ Under	58	34	24	59%
ATS	58	29	29	50%
ATS w/ Probability	29	13	16	45%
ATS w/ STD	24	13	11	54%

Another tough week for the system. Best percentages came in the over/ under and the straight up.

[ny92mike]

Week 6 Projections

WEEK_06			Forecast Projections
				>=70%	>=12.0
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_06 | NewYorkGiants @ ChicagoBears	7.5	47.0	NewYorkGiants	79%	9.5	NewYorkGiants	Under
Week_06 | CincinnatiBengals @ BuffaloBills	-7.0	42.0	BuffaloBills	93%	12.0	BuffaloBills	Over
Week_06 | DetroitLions @ ClevelandBrowns	-2.5	45.5	DetroitLions	43%	5.2	DetroitLions	Under
Week_06 | StLouisRams @ HoustonTexans	7.0	43.0	St.LouisRams	57%	6.9	HoustonTexans	Over
Week_06 | OaklandRaiders @ KansasCityChiefs	8.5	40.5	OaklandRaiders	64%	7.3	KansasCityChiefs	Over
Week_06 | CarolinaPanthers @ MinnesotaVikings	2.5	44.0	MinnesotaVikings	21%	2.5	MinnesotaVikings	Under
Week_06 | PittsburghSteelers @ NewYorkJets	2.5	41.5	NewYorkJets	14%	2.4	NewYorkJets	Over
Week_06 | GreenBayPackers @ BaltimoreRavens	-2.0	48.0	BaltimoreRavens	29%	2.7	BaltimoreRavens	Under
Week_06 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ TampaBayBuccaneers	0.0	45.5		50%	5.6	PhiladelphiaEagles	Under
Week_06 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ DenverBroncos	26.5	52.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	100%	27.3	JacksonvilleJaguars	Under
Week_06 | TennesseeTitans @ SeattleSeahawks	13.5	40.5	TennesseeTitans	71%	9.4	SeattleSeahawks	Over
Week_06 | NewOrleansSaints @ NewEnglandPatriots	3.0	49.5	NewOrleansSaints	36%	3.4	NewOrleansSaints	Under
Week_06 | ArizonaCardinals @ SanFrancisco49ers	11.0	41.0	ArizonaCardinals	86%	10.0	SanFrancisco49ers	Over
Week_06 | WashingtonRedskins @ DallasCowboys	5.5	53.0	DallasCowboys	0%	1.2	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_06 | IndianapolisColts @ SanDiegoChargers	-1.5	50.5	SanDiegoChargers	7%	1.8	SanDiegoChargers	Under
WEEK_06			Grouped Score Projections
				>=70%	>=2.0
Weekly Schedule	Visitor Spread	Over / Under	Against the Spread	ATS Probability	STD	Straight Up	Over /Under Proj.
Week_06 | NewYorkGiants @ ChicagoBears	7.5	47.0	ChicagoBears	8%	0.6	ChicagoBears	Under
Week_06 | CincinnatiBengals @ BuffaloBills	-7.0	42.0	BuffaloBills	69%	7.3	BuffaloBills	Under
Week_06 | DetroitLions @ ClevelandBrowns	-2.5	45.5	DetroitLions	15%	0.8	DetroitLions	Under
Week_06 | StLouisRams @ HoustonTexans	7.0	43.0	St.LouisRams	77%	8.0	St.LouisRams	Under
Week_06 | OaklandRaiders @ KansasCityChiefs	8.5	40.5	KansasCityChiefs	46%	3.8	KansasCityChiefs	Over
Week_06 | CarolinaPanthers @ MinnesotaVikings	2.5	44.0	MinnesotaVikings	23%	0.8	MinnesotaVikings	Over
Week_06 | PittsburghSteelers @ NewYorkJets	2.5	41.5	NewYorkJets	31%	1.6	NewYorkJets	Under
Week_06 | GreenBayPackers @ BaltimoreRavens	-2.0	48.0	BaltimoreRavens	62%	5.3	BaltimoreRavens	Under
Week_06 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ TampaBayBuccaneers	0.0	45.5				PhiladelphiaEagles	Under
Week_06 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ DenverBroncos	26.5	52.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	100%	17.7	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_06 | TennesseeTitans @ SeattleSeahawks	13.5	40.5	TennesseeTitans	85%	9.4	SeattleSeahawks	Over
Week_06 | NewOrleansSaints @ NewEnglandPatriots	3.0	49.5	NewOrleansSaints	54%	5.1	NewOrleansSaints	Over
Week_06 | ArizonaCardinals @ SanFrancisco49ers	11.0	41.0	ArizonaCardinals	92%	9.8	SanFrancisco49ers	Under
Week_06 | WashingtonRedskins @ DallasCowboys	5.5	53.0	DallasCowboys	38%	2.3	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_06 | IndianapolisColts @ SanDiegoChargers	-1.5	50.5	IndianapolisColts	0%	0.3	IndianapolisColts	Under

Still haven't had a chance to work in the injuries but I would stay clear of the titans vs sea; jac vs den games. The system is still figuring in Lockers performances from early in the season and Jacksonville well its jacksonville.

The philly game is a pk with the straight up leaning on philly with a projected score of 28 to 17. Tampa has been all over the board of projected scores however the eagles have been much closer to the projected scores over the last few weeks.

Good luck everyone!

[ny92mike]

Week 6 Results

This was a good week for the formula against the spread.

ATS = 69% 9 wins 4 losses and 2 pushes

ATS w/ probability = 80% 4 wins 1 loss

ATS w/ standard div. = 100% 2 wins 0 loss

Straight Up = 47%

Over/ Under = 40%


I did find one error with formula, if the game is a push it was calculating it as a loss, so I'll need to go back the previous weeks to see if there are any games that should be labeled a push. I noticed this error in this weeks games as both the ravens and saints were pushes. Also need to look at the formula for over/ under and straight up to determine if any games should be marked pushes.

I'll try to have this weeks games and the year to date totals listed tomorrow.

[SteveRyan]

ATS = 69% 9 wins 4 losses and 2 pushes

That's 60%

900/15 = 60

Or is it standard to exclude the pushes?

[ny92mike]

That's 60%

900/15 = 60

Or is it standard to exclude the pushes?

SteveRyan to be honest I'm pretty new to this all. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll make the appropriate changes but I was understanding a push was if the actual difference of the game equaled that of the spread and if it was the underdog side you had bet on.

In this case the two "pushes" were Baltimore and New Orleans in which case the amount bet would be returned. Like I said I'm no expert so if anyone has the answer to this it would be much appreciated.

Thanks.