Bank' I don't know what to say, you're breadth of knowledge amongst sports is great. Insightful writeups, keep it going, I always like to come and see your opinions regardless of my own. No homo.
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Bank, my man, I appreciate the quick feedback, much respect.Comment -
hey banker, why did you like the GB/DET under so much? was it the bye week and you knew GB would step up on D?
the fact that I really liked that Lions TT over and was so way off on it has me thinking maybe I am off on lots of stuff. i was fukking convinced that would be a shootout game like gb/niners
(actually had a great day today, but mostly tailing people, which is fine but kind of lame)Comment -
in fairness to you if megatron played det would have been much closer to the 23 i put them at anyway, actually id guess they would have had 16 going for 23...reason i liked didnt have a lot to do with gb d, much more about det offensive inefficiency on the road..and like ik said is figure pack would continure to run and that det d was playing strong in red zone, so we ended up getting lot of drives ending in fgs which is what i expected..Comment -
got it. det offensive inefficiency on the road, i always underestimate that. the do struggle on the road. some of it has to be that dumb coach
seems like you stayed away from a lot of the coinflip games too which is just as imporant as picking winners, glad you wonComment -
The "pleaser" bet intriques me. Would love to have a discussion about strategy. Can you do these on totals? If so, kind of the reverse strategy of not teasing totals for 6 may justify pleasing them for 6. I think interesting topic.well i suck at props but we busting this card up
..wasnt for stupid bears be perfect on the day (besides props, lo)... even had a 4 team round robin with colts ml.balty ml, cin ml, and fuk head bears ml.. what really sucked was that pick 6 by flucco,had a 4 team pleaser for 20 bucks to pay 900 with cincy-5, stl/jax ov 47, den/dal ov 62 but didnt make it to this dal total cause balty was -3.5,,fuk u flucco!Comment -
yea they are allowed on totals, i never take them real serious but was just screwing around and 4 teams paid like 45 to 1 or something crazy and thought i had 4 that would work, had it too if it wasnt for flucco pick 6 that made balt only win by 3 when i had -3.5....believe 2 teams is 6 to 1, again i dont do them often but just had a feeling bout yesterdays card playing 6 team teasers, parlays, and all kinds of goofy stuff, worked out pretty well..Comment -
The more I look at tonight's game the more I think birds cover 10. Initial thoughts were Jets could hang but that's only if Geno can limit his turnovers, and the more I think about it, and the bigger that 'if' in is becoming.
Falcons have played some tough games to open their season so I think the 1-3 can look a bit deceptive. They've all been one possession losses, and and now they come up against this disaster of an offense.
Better decision making in the red zone and I think birds Plough these bitches.
Set on Julio Jones o6.5 receptions though. Talib kept him quiet last week and he still came up with 6 receptions. I think he'll have more success over Cromartie. The only concern for me with this prop is that impressive Jets D will be bring the heat a lot tonight, which means quick dishes to Jackson and Snelling. But unfortunately my book don't do reception props on the RBs. However, I get the feelign that Atl will be on the ball a lot tonight so hopefully Matty will get enough chances to throw mid/deep to JJ, and god knows he don't need many chances to catch.Comment -
nothing really for me guys, i think it too many points but im basing everything off falcons inability to score in the red zone, if they fix that they could roll this jets team who's qb makes tooo many mistakes and is missing all his top wrs... all i got going is this
2 team ml parlay pays 92 cents on the dollar
atl 1st half ml
dodgers ml
just to have some action, dont see cy kershaw losing even on 3 days rest...dirty birds generally better in 1st half anyways, so there it is...wanted a winslow catch but it 5 and think 6 catches may be too much to ask?Comment -
what do u think about the total tonight banker?Comment -
Bank, thanks a lot for your NFL picks this weekend, brotha. I spent all of a half-hour on NFL capping Sunday morning and thanks to you i had a positive NFL week.Comment -
Yet again nothing jumping out at me, college as well. Waiting on team and game totals for college though, nfl just nothing right now lol. Gpnna have to dig.
I do think balty gets up for their game and can win that. Juicehead matthews out as well.Comment -
I pulled the trigger on your 6 team too.
I was geared up for a 4 team +6 teaser to put
KC +3
Phil +7
Oak +10.5
SF EVEN
Would have paid 2.5 to 1 but went with yours because I was feeling those totals. How do you figure your own score out like that? Thanks man keep 'em coming!Comment -
right on man, glad you cashed... far as totals i dunno a lot goes into it, basically look at teams offensive/defensive efficiency ratings, yards per point/ points per play, red zone numbers, time of possession numbers,, number of times each team generally gets into scoring range, just try and figure out how many possessions i can expect in a gm, how many will lead to scoring chances, and whether those scores will be tds or fgs.. then just add it up and presto i have a number, or at least a number range...I pulled the trigger on your 6 team too. I was geared up for a 4 team +6 teaser to put
KC +3
Phil +7
Oak +10.5
SF EVEN
Would have paid 2.5 to 1 but went with yours because I was feeling those totals. How do you figure your own score out like that? Thanks man keep 'em coming!Comment -
hey 2dabank been hearing that the sharp bet is on the over for the TNF game this week but it goes against your 1st h theory which i really believe in.....any thoughts?Comment -
over makes a lot of sense...i will still be betting the 1st half under, hopefully number keeps getting drove up, would love to get 24/24.5
if ive learned 1 thing about these the last few years is games like last week where everyone likes the under cause it obvious are usually the 1s that get us, then the scary ass 1s like this where it easy to expect points enough goofy shit happens to keep it under...
i mean if you make me cap it (which i havnt), i could prob come up with something like it would benefit gmen greatly to give bears a heavy dose of jacobs early, if not the d will be teeing off on eli..i thought bears d played pretty well against saints, even if nyg drives the ball i think you see them get held to fgs..bears have been getting away from the run gm as well as forte has had fewer attempts each week of late, bears oline has shown few holes lately and the best way to help them is to run the ball at a dline that rather rush the passer.. while sure this could easily turn into a shootout, especially if eli turns it over early or bears return a kick, that said i think the kind of coach caughlin is it much more likely nyg comes in conservative tries to play physical and the d comes to play..as long as we avoid something crazy setting off chain of events i think good chance this 1st half plays out quite similar to the nyg/kc 1st half a couple weeks ago.. dont tell anyone tho cause id luv to get at least 24 cause i think 14-10 prob high side, bol has 23.5 right now with juice on over so im just gonna wait and see if a 24 or even better a 24.5 pops up.. ill bet it at its current number if i have to but would love it to tick up so no point in rushing it, let ppl chase the original steam on it and hopefully push it up some more..Comment -
tons of teaser numbers out there..like they daring me, lol.. think have to play steelers, nothing to do with them or jets but even tho im not much into trends there been 1 ive followed over the years and it is teams that are winless ats off their bye have a incredible record over the years, i forget exactly what it is but it is really good..Comment -
im all jacked up for cards gm 5..go cards!
big gm waino aint losing to this kid
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Week 6
let me start by saying i dont love this weeks card, last week was way more appealing card to me which is why i have yet to make any bets yet, it not out of laziness, it out of respect for the lines and matchups this week as i really try not to bet shit just to bet it (clearly doesnt always work out,ha)...with that in mind maybe tread a little more lightly, or not, it your money
panthers ml +122 (1x)...not sure if any team has fukked me more than these clowns so of coarse this where i start, didnt bet them last week and hit the under but man i wanted to, luckily i didnt cause Scam newton turned the ball over every time they had a chance to score..
with that out of the way this is a choice matchup for the panthers, they have one of the best front 7s in fb and are among the best run stuffing teams in the league only allowing 3.6 ypc. i do not believe that ap can beat this team on his own and sorry if im not buying cassel as the answer at qb (neither is minny clearly since they saw fit to give freemon 3 mil to finish the season)..unlike the ball hawking studs zona has in the secondary minny pass defense has been atrocious from the pass rush being among the worst in the league to a back end that gets beaten like a redheaded stepchild on a reg basis. this the kind of team that Scam will feast on, this idiot should be throwing tds all over the place. giving his superman bs pose like he isnt the qb of a losing team and just having a good ol time..maybe im a sucker and just have panthers rated too highly but fact remains i like a team with a good front 7 and theirs is really good, the offense should be better than what it is and this the kind of team id imagine they bust out on a little bit..in the end i cant get off this team and getting + money against a team i rate as one of the worst in the league ill bite, but i swear this be the last time if scam gets me again... 24-16 panthers
ya already know what im doing thu night, just waiting for these stubborn pricks to give us a 24.. hopefully it will come before kickoff as this gm certainly has enough high scoring appeal i think over money will come in..
still have plenty of leans but the numbers are all not really anything i need to grab now..will post'em as i play'em,,if there any particular gm anyone feels like discussing by all means feel free as i could use some ideas for this card..Comment -
Yo bank since every week your in here posting all your thoughts, analysis of certain games which I really really appreciate, I wanna share some of my handicapping techniques with you all. I feel like if we all work together and share info and critique one another we can all become better handicappers.
Anyways this is how I start every week in handicapping....First, I start with the offensive/defensive lines matchup. This only really works starting week 5-6 due to lack of numbers, I sometimes use the previous seasons numbers but for many teams they are basically useless for example KC's offensive line numbers from last year with this years team.
I attached 3 pictures of the easy to understand graph system I make each week in order to easily see mis-matches in offensive/defensive lines/run blocking/pass protection. Thanks to footballoutsiders.com ...which we have all discussed in the past and know its value. all my numbers come from them.
Its a very simple but effective breakdown, we have each teams offensive line and defensive lines ranking matched up with their opponents for this coming week. Im sure im not the only one who does this, each ranking is from football outsiders basically they way they break down each line, RB = Runblocking Rank, PWR = Power Ranking, Stuff = Stuff Ranking, 2nd Level = 2nd Level Ranking, Open = Open Field Ranking, and PP = Pass Protection....
Ok so each week I make the graphs, then circle/highlight any obvious mismatches, usually a top5-top10 ranking against a bottom 5-bottom 10 ranking, then you can easily see the mismatches. (look at pic 3 for the broncos/jags breakdown....Ive never seen a game so mismatched at the line)
Now this is just the starting point, it is by no means the deciding factor in selecting any game. From these easily viewable mismatched numbers, you need to apply the "in-game" "real-life" anaylsis that goes with them. for example this week on the first page, first game, Bears vs Giants matchup, you can see giants have the worst pass rush in the league. This is a huge plus for cutler and the bears offense. from what I have seen from cutler, your start putting pressure on him, he rattles, and makes poor decisions and poor throws, but if you give him a lot of time/space, then he can make some amazingly accurate throws and good decisions....other QB's not so much (for example aaron rogers
, doesnt really matter he can make an amazing throw on the run with a guy in his face)
Okay so you have the graphs and you have the mismatches at the lines, and after going thru all of them I usually have 3-5 games circled that I like certain mismatches in. From there I got to team rankings and make another graph for the few games selected and use a few key stats for offensive/defensive team rankings....right now Im just using...yards/play, redzone %, TO margin/game, penalties/play.....but I have changed/tweaked certain things over the years....
from that point I usually make my selections, I usually like to wait and see what other sharp cappers like you bank are on before making my picks if I can wait just to get more opinions on certain games or whatever late info....
anyways just wanted to share this with you all....anyone else do something similar to this? ideas? critiques? important stats to use/consider?
also very important after every week to re-evaluate the graphs/numbers and mismatches with each game to see if certain mismatches were exploited/more valueable than others....
just got done with all my graphs for this week and its been a late night/ tmrw or friday I will post some thoughts on this specific card
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i do a lot of similar things smut, except for first thing i do is go down the card and make my own number before looking at the spread, some weeks i dont have time for this ahead of time but still try and generate my own w/o letting actual number influence me...oline/dline matchups certainly a factor for me, i havnt been using fb outsiders as i pretty much have my own ranking on them at this point although im sure theirs every bit as good..i love team rankings myself, besides what yo mentioned i find yards per point/points per play numbers helpful (you will generally find the top teams in the top 10 in either offensive or defensive side of these stats or both by end of season), i also go gm by gm and look at how each particular gm played out numbers wise as it still early enough some numbers can be a bit deceiving depending on the kind of schedule a team has had or simply what kind of opponent they have faced (alos gives me a better idea of what teams may or may not struggle with), ex being while we know redskins defense is bad they started with a absolutely brutal stretch against some big time offenses that i believe make them look a little worse than they really are..
you certainly went into more detail than i can, cause ultimately if you wanna here the honest truth i jot down a shitload of numbers on a piece of paper, use my oddball math no1 understands (always been pretty decent with numbers but in a way that makes very little sense to other ppl) and come up with a number or more accurately a range of numbers where i think both teams will score, the smaller the range obviously the better i feel about the gm as some gms are much harder for me to have a great read on in the end.. of coarse with all that i watch damn near every gm every week and try and factor in my eye test when i feel like the numbers and what ive seen dont exactly add up...Comment -
nice info smut. Hey bank, I wanted to know why you don't like the bears -7ish for tonights game. I've gone through all my usual numbers and see the bears winning by at least a td. I can only see a few ways the giants cover or possibly even win: cruz/hicks break a few tackles for long tds, cutler tries to force a few long ones to marshall and gets picked off like last week, cutler gets hurt, or some weird thursday night trend I don't know about. Some input would be appreciated.
And yes I know the D line for chi is going to be kind of vulnerable due to injuries this week but NY has some injuries as wellComment -
its not that i like or dislike the the bears as much as i rarely play a side on the thu night gm and honestly most of the time dont even bother capping it as i think it really hard to factor the short week into the mix, other than the fact you can more times than not count on some sloppy play in this shitfest..i despise the thu night gm as all it is a cash grab for a league swimming in money, just happy that ive came up with something to bet every week that has thus far taken adv of this bs gm..
ill do my best w/o capping it much to explain other than the reasons above why i would be hesitant to lay that number with chi. 1st off it nyg oline that been killing them and bears dline is a walking mash unit and have been terrible at generating pressure this yr, certainly this could be the gm peppers bust out but the dline overall hasnt impressed me much..tillman still gimpy and the unit as a whole has been much weaker defending the pass than in years past letting teams complete damn near 69% of their passes, under lovie smith at least they kept everything underneath but now they are in the bottom 10 in the league allowing 11.6 ypc..this defense just isnt good as it once was and have problems defending things nyg is strong at, if eli has time cruz, nicks, and randle can shred this secondary . their saving grace is they have been excellent once teams get in the red zone and offensively have been pretty strong in that area.. feel like this a pretty big number when nyg is still a dangerous team if you dont pressure eli and bears have not gotten much pressure at all thus far this season.. the only team bear beat by more than this number was pit and that took several defensive scores, clearly eli isnt above making his fare share of mistakes but think they play it a little closer to the vest..
i hate even capping this gm a little cause obviously im not saying a lot of things that go along with the 1st half under but then again that rarely matters on these thur nighters..i think caughlin will have the d playing inspired early and try to play more conservative and hoping that a good number of drives stall out leading to fgs and this gm resembles the nyg/kc 1st half a few weeks ago..i do worry a little about the tressman comments focusing on starting faster but fact remains bears havnt been scoring early in gms so hopefully that continues for our sake..Comment -
Mr. Bank,
Congrats on your Cards! My poor Braves chocked in the home stretch
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Had a few games this week I was looking at. Would love your initial thoughts on...
Oakland (+9.5) vs Kansas City
I'm thinking of buying the hook and getting Oakland at -10 for -125. Pryor has played very well since the Denver game. I've been on Kansas City for the past two weeks, and their offense is sluggish as hell. Alex Smith doesn't put up points and they love to keep the ball on the ground with Charles. The backup Bill's QB had a ton of rushing yards scrambling from the pocket, and I doubt he's the runner Pryor is. 9.5 or 10 points seems a lot to give for this Chiefs team. My only fear is the KS D completely shuts out Oakland.
Two Team 6 Point Teaser for
Bengals -1 over Bills
Houston -2.5 over Rams
I don't know who the Bills are starting at QB, but Pat White or who ever else is going to get eaten by this Cinnci D. Houston seems like more of a stretch since the fans are literally burning their QB's Jersey and showing up at his house, but Sam Bradford is possibly the worst QB no one is talking about. Putting up a fight against the Falcons doesn't seem to mean much anymore, and I think the Houston D shuts them down at home.
Chargers +1.5 vs Indy
I've been on this thread talking up the Chargers for a few weeks now. I was on the OVER last week, since I don't trust the Chargers as more than 3 point favorites vs anyone, and it was frustrating to watch that sloppy game. However this week looks like a good spot for them. They're coming off an embarrassing loss to Oakland vs an Indy team that has looked way better (I hope) then they actually are. I also feel like after the emotional win last week vs SEA, Indy is prime for a slow game. Something silly like 94% of the public is on Indy at the moment, and I think there might be value in the ML if the line keeps pressing up towards 2.5. I doubt it gets to 3 but who knows.Comment
