How to Set NFL Futures Superbowl odds for 2013 Season

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  • billyboy
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-05-12
    • 10

    #1
    How to Set NFL Futures Superbowl odds for 2013 Season
    I understand that a Sportsbook in setting the point spread for a given game tries to get about the same amount of money on both sides of the point spread.

    For NFL futures there aren't both sides of a wager, and if you set a Futures line incorrectly, e. g. for the 2013 NFL season if you give Baltimore or San Francisco 50 to 1 odds to win the Superbowl in 2014 , everyone will bet on them. On the other hand if you give the Cleveland Browns or Buffalo Bills 8 to 1 odds to win the Superbowl nobody will bet on them. The problem is there is no "other side".
    You can create an "other side". If San Fran or Baltimore paid 1 dollar for every 50 dollars bet if they DID NOT win the Superbowl(the inverse wager), no one would take this bet. On the other hand if Cleveland or Buffalo paid one dollar for an 8 dollar bet if they DID NOT win the Superbowl, everyone would take this bet.

    So create a Future line for each team to win the Superbowl, and create a Future line for each team to Not Win the Superbowl. When both sides have the same amount of money, a good Futures line has been reached.
  • tto827
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-01-12
    • 9078

    #2
    They come up with a % likelihood of each team winning. Then add significant vig to every team. Then add even more to the Pats, Cowboys, Steelers, Packers, 9ers, and prolly a few others.
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    • James D
      SBR MVP
      • 01-03-13
      • 2040

      #3
      Originally posted by tto827
      They come up with a % likelihood of each team winning. Then add significant vig to every team. Then add even more to the Pats, Cowboys, Steelers, Packers, 9ers, and prolly a few others.
      Agree with all this and add NY teams
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