NFL HalfTime Middling System

cmdyrds · 09-23-12, 07:31 AM

interesting concept. just checking in.

playr101 · 09-23-12, 09:30 AM

System went 24-11-1 yesterday in ncaafb. FYI

-playr101

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by playr101

System went 24-11-1 yesterday in ncaafb. FYI

-playr101

Refreshing to see a "system" that is based off of price action, this looks promising, back test results will be interesting...

Is anyone going to try to post today's plays on here as they potentially develop?

catt0025 · 09-23-12, 09:44 AM

I'm sure someone will be on here trying to post them as they come along, but if not, it's not too hard to calculate. Just be ready when each games halftime comes around! Let's make some money everyone! BOL!

nrok2118 · 09-23-12, 10:08 AM

Im going for it today, going to play every qualifier for a full unit! BOL today boys

doin · 09-23-12, 10:12 AM

will keep up w you men. add what i can as we go along. i like this. obviously have to watch the game tho and todays other agenda keeps me away. good luck (good strategy) to all users.

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 10:19 AM

I am going to back test this.... probably go back five seasons and I will only be counting
12+..... Anyone object or see any fallacy with just testing those results as plays under 12 we aren't going to play by what I can gather....

Sandwich · 09-23-12, 01:21 PM

I'll try to rapid fire the plays out at halftime. BOL

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by Sandwich

I'll try to rapid fire the plays out at halftime. BOL

TY Sandwich

Go State · 09-23-12, 01:27 PM

I am guessing that the Vikings are a play for this at +6.5 2nd half is that right?

nrok2118 · 09-23-12, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Go State

I am guessing that the Vikings are a play for this at +6.5 2nd half is that right?

Yes vikings are the first play of the day. I was lucky enough to get 7

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:29 PM

San Francisco @ Minnesota
Full Game odds were 49'ers -7 and 43
At the half, Vikings lead 17-3
2H lines should be 49'ers -21 and 23
2H lines are 49'ers -7 and 21
Thus we have
Vikings +7 2H as a play

Sandwich · 09-23-12, 01:29 PM

Minnesota +6.5

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 01:29 PM

BEt US got +7.5

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:32 PM

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Full Game odds were Colts -3 and 42
At the half, Colts winning 14-3
2H lines should be Jags -8 and 25
2H lines are PK and 21
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:35 PM

Detroit @ Tennessee
Full Game odds were Lions -3.5 and 47
At the half, Titans winning 20-9
2H lines should be Lions -14.5 and 18
2H lines are Lions -4 and 23
Thus we have Titans +4 2H as a play

GChild · 09-23-12, 01:35 PM

How about rest of games?

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:35 PM

Kansas City @ New Orleans
Full Game odds were Saints -9 and 51.5
At the half, Saints winning 10-6
2H lines should be Saints -5 and 35.5
2H lines are Saints -3 and 25
Thus we have
UNDER 25 2H as a play

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:36 PM

New York Jets @ Miami
Full Game odds were Jets -2.5 and 40.5
At the half, Dolphins 10-3
2H lines should be Jets -7.5 and 27.5
2H lines are Jets -3 and 20.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!

mbs4 · 09-23-12, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by morri1962

Detroit @ Tennessee
Full Game odds were Lions -3.5 and 47
At the half, Titans winning 20-9
2H lines should be Lions -14.5 and 18
2H lines are Lions -4 and 23
Thus we have Titans +4 2H as a play

That's not a 13 point difference.

mbs4 · 09-23-12, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by morri1962

Kansas City @ New Orleans
Full Game odds were Saints -9 and 51.5
At the half, Saints winning 10-6
2H lines should be Saints -5 and 35.5
2H lines are Saints -3 and 25
Thus we have
UNDER 25 2H as a play

Neither is this.

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:37 PM

St. Louis @ Chicago
Full Game odds were Bears -7 and 42
At the half, Bears 10-3
2H lines should be PK and 29
2H lines are Bears -2.5 and 20
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 01:37 PM

+5s are out there everywhere if that helps

morri1962 · 09-23-12, 01:38 PM

sorry I was doing 10+

nrok2118 · 09-23-12, 01:38 PM

Yeah using the 13 point rule I only have the vikings and bengals as plays

mbs4 · 09-23-12, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by morri1962

sorry I was doing 10+

That's ok. I appreciate the posts anyway.

GChild · 09-23-12, 01:42 PM

Is that it?

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 01:43 PM

Funny...I would have thought you would have more total plays than pointspread plays

Sandwich · 09-23-12, 01:43 PM

Bengals +4

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 01:43 PM

Thanks guys for posting the plays thus far.....

Back Test

Just for everyone's information I will be back testing this method back to and including the 2006 NFL Season.
My Back test will include win/loss records for games that meet 12+ only! If anyone feels that I should include results lower than 12+ please let me know immediately, I just feel comfortable with playing 12+....

I will update this thread ASAP once this is completed; I suspect this will take a couple of days, fortunately I am away from work for a couple of days.

I am hopeful to get this method in action with full units ASAP, so fingers will be crossed that the back test shows us results that have been similar to what we have seen for the 2010 season that was posted by On3.

Good Luck on the early games I have these three for the 1pm est lot for 2012-09-23

1. Minnesota +6.5 2h
2. Tennessee +4 2h
3. Bengals +4 2h

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 01:46 PM

Thank you Andy for doing this and posting it for us. That is generous of you.

I played Tenn +4.5 also but I am not sure it is a play. Vikes and Cincy for sure.

nrok2118 · 09-23-12, 01:57 PM

Im definitely interested in seeing the backtest results on this one. I fear with all this hype and everyone jumping on board (including myself), it may not perform as hoped.

Andy, could you backtest using 13 as your magic number? On3 had some kind of stat that showed 13+ had the best results.

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by nrok2118

Im definitely interested in seeing the backtest results on this one. I fear with all this hype and everyone jumping on board (including myself), it may not perform as hoped.

Nrok:

I agree! It does not take much to get hopes up. I think what is interesting is that if this turns out to show similar profit projections to the 2010 season, is that it still will require good/strict money management to be successful.

It would be cool if we could get someone to start a running 2012 record just for information purposes, I would volunteer but I know I couldn't keep it up to date based on my schedule.

I will have time to get a good back test up, I believe this sample size should get us 1000+ results, so hopefully that is big enough to make some educated deductions about how profitable this method could potentially be.

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 02:19 PM

Rough start to our second halves!!

bigant78 · 09-23-12, 02:27 PM

what a bullshit system. i cant believe idiots followed. im just looking and laughing.