Final Four Capping and Discussions Saturday 4/1

**Illusion** · 03-27-06, 12:24 AM

Here are the current lines from Pinnacle:

Sat 4/1 811 LSU -2 -105 -136 OVER 121 -108
05:45 PM 812 UCLA +2 -105 +124 UNDER 121 -102

Sat 4/1 813 George Mason +5 -107 +206 OVER 132.5 -110
03:05 PM 814 Florida -5 -103 -232 UNDER 132.5 +100

**Jay Edgar** · 03-27-06, 12:41 AM

Soon after the line went up I jumped in and bought 6 units of LSU -2 +111.

Now I gotta decide how much of that to keep, if any.

I am leaning strongly to LSU, and so may keep up to 3 units of it, which is about as much as I like to extend on anything where I'm not both betting my team and fading the opponent, and here I don't see UCLA as fadeworthy -- I think they have a good game in them. But LSU looks like the champions to me.

Also, on totals, when they play in these airport hangers, particularly the first game, I'm always surprised if the shooting is decent at all. I wonder if anyone has taken a look at that -- O/U in football stadiums vs real arenas, or O/U in 1st game there vs second game there.

Still, I agree with imgv that 122 is an overreaction. It won't take much to get over that. I think there's a better than 50% chance these teams DON'T play down in the 50s, no matter how they shoot.

**Seattle Slew** · 03-27-06, 01:04 AM

I think LSU is the most complete team in the Final 4, but I'm picking Florida to win this. They just have the look of a team that's getting better with each game. They were lucky to beat Georgetown, but other than that, they dominated 3 out of their 4 opponents. And with those big guys down low, I see them winning it all. Plus, they beat LSU twice during the season.

I like LSU on the other side, but I'm wary of backing them now as a favorite. Can they keep getting better? UCLA certainly will play better on Saturday.

What can be said about George Mason? Amazing team. Down 16-2 against UNC and they win. Down 12 and 9 at the half, devastated on that last-second shot, and they still beat UConn in overtime. I see them having big problems against Florida's big men and finally losing on Saturday. But I wouldn't dare lay points against these guys.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-27-06, 11:56 AM

Sideways from the topic, but a few random thoughts. . . .

We really are gambling in betting these games. In this particular tournament at least, in more than a few of the games if not a majority, neither team is a clear winner and it can be said that, if not for a blown call or a bizarre mistake by a 19 year old, the game (that is, the SU result) would have been different.

And as for the quality of basketball -- it's exciting sure, but it's also shockingly inept a lot of the time. Your money is in the hands of kids who do not know very much about how to win a game. Think about UConn: how many horrific cross-court passes did UConn throw and GM knock away, if not steal?

And, this is the surprise to me -- it is pretty much the same with the officiating. Maybe I haven't paid close enough attention to this before, but NCAA officials seem a lot closer to HS officials than NBA officials to me. I wonder how many of these guys would grade out respectably doing D-League games. Really.

If you get a chance, watch a replay of the last 6 seconds of the UConn-GM regulation, when Shinn misses the front end of the 1-and-1 just before UConn's tying rimhanger. The official under the basket WALKS IN TO RETRIEVE SHINN'S MISSED FREE THROW -- and gets fairly close to the ball before the UConn guys outrebound him. The referee thinks it's a 2-shot foul!!! It's unbelieveable!!!!

**isetcap** · 03-27-06, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Sideways from the topic, but a few random thoughts. . . .

We really are gambling in betting these games. In this particular tournament at least, in more than a few of the games if not a majority, neither team is a clear winner and it can be said that, if not for a blown call or a bizarre mistake by a 19 year old, the game (that is, the SU result) would have been different.

And as for the quality of basketball -- it's exciting sure, but it's also shockingly inept a lot of the time. Your money is in the hands of kids who do not know very much about how to win a game. Think about UConn: how many horrific cross-court passes did UConn throw and GM knock away, if not steal?

And, this is the surprise to me -- it is pretty much the same with the officiating. Maybe I haven't paid close enough attention to this before, but NCAA officials seem a lot closer to HS officials than NBA officials to me. I wonder how many of these guys would grade out respectably doing D-League games. Really.

If you get a chance, watch a replay of the last 6 seconds of the UConn-GW regulation, when Shinn misses the front end of the 1-and-1 just before UConn's tying rimhanger. The official under the basket WALKS IN TO RETRIEVE SHINN'S MISSED FREE THROW -- and gets fairly close to the ball before the UConn guys outrebound him. The referee thinks it's a 2-shot foul!!! It's unbelieveable!!!!

Great statement about the officiating. I wrote more about this in another thread, but I have been implementing an officiating decision into my formulas for the last 2 years and I'm sure it's paying off for me and college basketball is where it pays off most.

I don't really think it's more of a "gamble" to be betting ncaa basketball versus the pros. There certainly may be more inconsistency and a larger amount of deviation but in reality all these issues are just factors that should be calculated like anything else.

**bigboydan** · 03-27-06, 01:01 PM

my concern is how will George Mason handle the publicity of the media. they have never encountered anything close to what there going to get this week. not to mention, they have never won a tourney game before this year. how are you guys going to factor this into your capping anyways, because i'm trying to figure that out myself.

**Seattle Slew** · 03-30-06, 01:37 AM

Just tracked down the replay to see what you mentioned. Pretty amazing.

No excuse for the official, but I think the reason he fell asleep there was because there were no George Mason players on the line. If he bumped a UConn player, it would have been a dead ball and side out for UConn, which would have allowed GM to set up a full-court defense. There would have been holy hell if that happened.

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

If you get a chance, watch a replay of the last 6 seconds of the UConn-GM regulation, when Shinn misses the front end of the 1-and-1 just before UConn's tying rimhanger. The official under the basket WALKS IN TO RETRIEVE SHINN'S MISSED FREE THROW -- and gets fairly close to the ball before the UConn guys outrebound him. The referee thinks it's a 2-shot foul!!! It's unbelieveable!!!!

**Razz** · 03-30-06, 02:33 PM

Well, I was very successful in my NCAA tournament futures, and I feel I know these teams pretty well, so I put 0.2* on each of these:

GMU/UF Props:
Largest Lead of the Game: Under 14 (-115)
Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists by Taurean Green: Under 19.5 (-115)
Total Points by Kim Noah: Under 15.5 (-115)

LSU/UCLA Props:
Largest lead of the game: Under 11.5 (+100)
Points scored by Aaron Afflalo: Under 14.5 (-115)
Points scored by Darrell Mitchell: Under 15.5 (-115)
Total 3-pointers in the game: Under 9.5 (+100)

**Razz** · 03-30-06, 02:34 PM

Also, I am sitting with 2 units on LSU -1 (-105), and I feel they are going to win, but I am pretty confident this will be a close game, and I think I am going to put 1 unit on UCLA. The line is at 2.5 currently, but I think it might hit 3.

For what it's worth, the prop I like the best is Under 11.5 points as the biggest lead in the LSU/UCLA game.

**Illusion** · 03-30-06, 04:54 PM

Here's the current line from Pinnacle:

Sat 4/1 811 LSU -2.5 +100 -140 OVER 121 -111
05:45 PM 812 UCLA +2.5 -110 +128 UNDER 121 +101

Sat 4/1 813 George Mason +6 -101 +243 OVER 132.5 -102
03:05 PM 814 Florida -6 -109 -275 UNDER 132.5 -108

**Alamorich** · 03-30-06, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Sideways from the topic, but a few random thoughts. . . .

We really are gambling in betting these games. In this particular tournament at least, in more than a few of the games if not a majority, neither team is a clear winner and it can be said that, if not for a blown call or a bizarre mistake by a 19 year old, the game (that is, the SU result) would have been different.

And as for the quality of basketball -- it's exciting sure, but it's also shockingly inept a lot of the time. Your money is in the hands of kids who do not know very much about how to win a game. Think about UConn: how many horrific cross-court passes did UConn throw and GM knock away, if not steal?

And, this is the surprise to me -- it is pretty much the same with the officiating. Maybe I haven't paid close enough attention to this before, but NCAA officials seem a lot closer to HS officials than NBA officials to me. I wonder how many of these guys would grade out respectably doing D-League games. Really.

If you get a chance, watch a replay of the last 6 seconds of the UConn-GM regulation, when Shinn misses the front end of the 1-and-1 just before UConn's tying rimhanger. The official under the basket WALKS IN TO RETRIEVE SHINN'S MISSED FREE THROW -- and gets fairly close to the ball before the UConn guys outrebound him. The referee thinks it's a 2-shot foul!!! It's unbelieveable!!!!

You hit the nail on the head Jay. The reason these games are exciting is the suspense of not knowing who's going to win. If that is the case why would you want to put serious money on them? If your doing it just to have fun cause your going to watch the game anyway than that makes sense. I can't watch any sporting event unless I have action on it so I will put a few bucks on a side just to enhance my viewing pleasure and because I am a degenerate gambler.

**mlwitchking** · 03-30-06, 09:47 PM

i have been thinking about what is a fair line for florida george mason. i think +7 to +8 or +300 is fair.

**Jay Edgar** · 04-01-06, 11:39 AM

Is this also the "NBA Regular Season Deathmarch" Thread?

In any event, seems like the right place for these . . .

NBA Saturday

CLE (#12) by 1.4 over MIA (#3)
SA (#2) by 6.8 over WAS (#4)
MIL (#10) by 7.0 over IND (#26)
CHI (#18) by 2.2 over BOS (#15)
UTH (#17) by 4.5 over POR (#29)

**Razz** · 04-01-06, 11:50 AM

I really like Miami today. The Cavs just clinched a spot in the playoffs, for what is the first time in most of these players' careers. A letdown is almost as natural as me taking a TV dog. Meanwhile, Riley has been preaching to his team the importance of winning this type of game.

**Jay Edgar** · 04-01-06, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Razz

I really like Miami today. The Cavs just clinched a spot in the playoffs, for what is the first time in most of these players' careers. A letdown is almost as natural as me taking a TV dog. Meanwhile, Riley has been preaching to his team the importance of winning this type of game.

I agree, for what it's worth. I think the Cavs lack some focus and MIA puts up 105-110, which also makes the over look pretty good at 193.

**Dark Horse** · 04-01-06, 12:32 PM

Hard to believe that GM is a 6 pt dog. Didn't they just beat UCONN? They are much more battle tested than Florida.

**Razz** · 04-01-06, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Hard to believe that GM is a 6 pt dog. Didn't they just beat UCONN? They are much more battle tested than Florida.

I agree 100%, and yet still haven't played them. I hope they win either way, but I should go play them.

**mlwitchking** · 04-01-06, 12:36 PM

The Over/Under line for LSU-UCLA looks way too low. LSU will be able to score big inside. LSU should be able to show their athelicism. I got the Over at 121. I think there is another steal going around. Sportbook had the 1st Half at 56 for LSU-UCLA overnight. I bought that as well.

Totals:
LSU (All Games) 73.9/64.0
LSU (Last 5) 67.0/63.2
UCLA (All Games) 68.3/58.6
UCLA (Last 5) 66.8/54.2
Average (All Games) LSU 66.3 / UCLA 66.2 / Total 132.4
Average (Last 5) LSU 60.6 / UCLA 65 / Total 125.6

1st Half ONLY:
LSU (All Games) 36.2/30.4
LSU (Last 5) 31.8/31.4
UCLA (All Games) 31.9/28.4
UCLA (Last 5) 30.8/29.0
Average (All Games) LSU 32.3 / UCLA 31.2 / Total 63.5
Average (Last 5) LSU 30.4 / UCLA 31.1 / Total 61.5

**darkghost** · 04-01-06, 05:45 PM

I see on SBRLines two books that are still offering (this close to game time) totals of 132 -107 (Hollywood) and 133.5 -110 (WSEX) for the GM/Florida game. I went to both sites to confirm and there still up.

**Dark Horse** · 04-01-06, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

If you get a chance, watch a replay of the last 6 seconds of the UConn-GM regulation, when Shinn misses the front end of the 1-and-1 just before UConn's tying rimhanger. The official under the basket WALKS IN TO RETRIEVE SHINN'S MISSED FREE THROW -- and gets fairly close to the ball before the UConn guys outrebound him. The referee thinks it's a 2-shot foul!!! It's unbelieveable!!!!

Didn't have to wait long. GM's second possession: turnover because ref gets in the way of player. I don't think I've ever seen that in the NBA. Unreal.