Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[impper]

Thanks Chili and impper a lot!!!! OK...so if my schedule only allows me to play games earlier in the day like at 3 for example, do you think I should look at the lines where I am ONLY getting at least -107 / -103 at Pinny???

Also, I know impper said he was placing bets at noon and doing really well....are you still doing that DAILY impper?? I just know you said that you look at the stronger lines that Pinny is leaning towards and hop on those because for the most part, they end up moving in your favor and you get a great edge...

So as of now, you guys do the EARLY games on the weekends, and wait until later for the late games......and during the weekdays, you try to wait til 5-6...OK, I can try to do that as well, however, I cannot do that all the time....And finally, what is a good percentage of our wagers we should shoot for in terms of beating / matching the closing line???

As for my bankroll, I plan on using impper's formula and so as my bankroll HOPEFULLY increases, my unit size will increase which will spit out higher numbers in impper's formula....please advise if I am wrong here...

Thanks a lot you guys, I really appreciate it...

yes, if you're betting earlier you should be looking for lines that offer you a nice advantage.

i don't have a ton of time in the day, i just place the bets whenever convenient. i'm on right now and i made some plays. i'm going to bed now so hopefully i'll wake up with a nice surprise. i can post some of them now and we'll see how that goes, although there are so many plays that i honestly cannot remember what they are at gametime and i have to look them up in my log

as for your unit size, that is at your discretion. a unit can be anywhere from .5% to 5% of your bankroll. using my formula i'd recommend somewhere between .5 and 1% of your bankroll per unit.

[impper]

Here's what I got, a mix between 8-9 am and 12:30 PM picks

Wofford +11½ -170 for Game
South Dakota -3 -170 for Game
Alaska Anchorage +9 -170 for Game
Gardner Webb +10 -170 for Game
Loyola Marymount +10 -170 for Game
South Carolina +5 -170 for Game
TCU -2 -170 for Game
NBA - Washington Wizards +9½ -170 for Game
Detroit -10½ -170 for Game
Cal Santa Barbara +6 -170 for Game
Utah State -11½ -170 for Game
Cincinnati +4 -170 for Game
Loyola Chicago -1½ -170 for Game
Western Kentucky -110 for Game
St. Bonaventure +10½ -170 for Game
Houston +8 -170 for Game
Western Michigan +16½ -170 for Game

[chilidog]

Austin Peay +10 -165 2.03% - WIN
Northern Colorado -2.5 -165 3.72% - WIN

[pokerwhiz90]

hey impper, what are the percentages/units your placing on those? im trying to figure this out

[chilidog]

hey impper, what are the percentages/units your placing on those? im trying to figure this out

It's going to vary based upon the lines that he got, and with whatever amount you're comfortable placing. That's the thing with this, everybody's results and percentages are going to be different, unless you do the math at the exact time that everybody else is, using the exact same lines and books that the poster is using.

[impper]

sorry im not set up right now to report those as im doing the calculations on the fly. i'll start keeping track soon and then include those if i post any more picks to this thread

[impper]

It's going to vary based upon the lines that he got, and with whatever amount you're comfortable placing. That's the thing with this, everybody's results and percentages are going to be different, unless you do the math at the exact time that everybody else is.

yeah this too, i can't stress this enough. with how wildly the edges can swing, tailing somebody on these plays won't work unless you're refreshing this thread 30 minutes before gametime and someone is gracious enough to post the picks as well. since we're working with marginal edges, small changes can wildly alter the maths

[pokerwhiz90]

im trying to figure this out for the past hour while placing system bets like crazy, I'm successful as I am, but if you can average 100 units in a few weeks throughout 4 sports, I'd definitely replace my system with that. Especially since my ssystem relies on my knowledge of each sport (so I would definitely be able to save some time and stop being on top of things)

[chilidog]

Keep working at it - you'll get it eventually. You just can't rely on other people's plays, unless we all got together and made a consensus. There's so many plays going on, especially with college football and basketball going on right now, that it's rather difficult to do so. Make your own plays, and it'll work out awesome.

[impper]

Keep working at it - you'll get it eventually. You just can't rely on other people's plays, unless we all got together and made a consensus. There's so many plays going on, especially with college football and basketball going on right now, that it's rather difficult to do so. Make your own plays, and it'll work out awesome.

hey chili, does this work in college football too? i was checking out the lines at betus.com for nfl and i couldnt find any value. i'm about to head off or else i'd check for myself right now. i'll get back later and tell you what i find, but anything you can add would be great. i heard chem say he was +300 units in CFB and had got cut off, is that using this same system?

[chilidog]

CBB-Gardner Webb +10 -165 2.15% - WIN

[chilidog]

hey chili, does this work in college football too? i was checking out the lines at betus.com for nfl and i couldnt find any value. i'm about to head off or else i'd check for myself right now. i'll get back later and tell you what i find, but anything you can add would be great. i heard chem say he was +300 units in CFB and had got cut off, is that using this same system?

Yah, it works in several sports. BUT, the reason he did +300 units was because he uses a local that gives him reduced juice, and was letting him bet correlated parlays. Football works so well for him because he's able to buy 1/2 points at such a cheap price, and it's hard to find those prices with offshore books.

[impper]

yeah trust me i was putting in number in the calc for nfl, nhl, mlb, totals, everything but it seemed like only basketball was where clear edges could be found w/ the numbers betus gave

[pokerwhiz90]

i dont even understand how to calculate the edge... i would like to do this myself as well

[chilidog]

yeah trust me i was putting in number in the calc for nfl, nhl, mlb, totals, everything but it seemed like only basketball was where clear edges could be found w/ the numbers betus gave

Well, I guess that December-March will be awesome months for us then

[chilidog]

i dont even understand how to calculate the edge... i would like to do this myself as well

Everything you need to know is in this thread. Just read through it all.

[chilidog]

I think a problem that you might be having, pokerwhiz, is that maybe you're trying to replicate the same percentage edge that me or impper are getting, and that's not going to happen. I calculate my plays based on a line that a local gives me (I have reduced -105 juice and can buy 3 points for -165). So you will never get the same percentages as me. Impper is using betus' lines, so you should be able to match his, but ONLY if you happen to do it at the exact moment that he does it, because if the lines/spreads change on either pinny or betus, then that throws everything off, and could give you a completely different play than what we have.

[pokerwhiz90]

the half pt calculator only does up to 1.5 pts, so i don't know how to get an edge, the % edge is always in the negative as well

give me a hypothetical - i read through this whole thread, i feel a bit ridiculous

[chilidog]

You can scroll up and down in the calculator. There's a button at the top/bottom to do that. Cheme explained it, then I explained it step-by-step, it's all here in the thread. Just read.

[pokerwhiz90]

i just have 2 more questions: Do you run every game under this process? and just play the ones with an edgee? Also BETJAM offers 3 pts at -170 and that's the best online book I could find that offers those lines

any suggestions?

[chilidog]

CBB-Florida Atlantic +13.5 -165 1.17% - LOSS
CBB-Houston Baptist +7 -165 1.23% - WIN

[chilidog]

i just have 2 more questions: Do you run every game under this process? and just play the ones with an edgee? Also BETJAM offers 3 pts at -170 and that's the best online book I could find that offers those lines

any suggestions?

Yup, I run every single game through the calculator, and play the ones with the biggest edge. Betjam is a good book, but you'll have to use the calculator using both pinny and betjam's lines.

[pokerwhiz90]

chili, are you doing these for all the sports?

[pokerwhiz90]

Also which book do you use? I'm searching for 3 at -165, but can't seem to find it

[chilidog]

chili, are you doing these for all the sports?

NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB

Also which book do you use? I'm searching for 3 at -165, but can't seem to find it

I use 2 locals that both give me reduced juice and let me buy 3 points for -165. You're not going to find this online - you have to find a local.

[GGZOLA]

fyi, closest I found was rebatewager at 3pts -170, but at your own risk (how much will they tolerate and will they stiff you if you hit them up big with same kinda plays, very unfamiliar with this new book they seem very tight on their limits.

[pokerwhiz90]

chili are you just going to post them in all of cheme's threads or your own thread?

[chilidog]

CBB-Loyola Chicago -1.5 -165 3.95% - LOSS
CBB-So. Illinois +4.5 -165 0.77% - WIN
CBB-Texas A&M CC +10.5 -165 2.60% - WIN
CBB-Niagara -1 -155 3.38% - LOSS
CBB-East Carolina -9 -165 2.61% - WIN
CBB-Arkansas State -3 -165 0.92% - WIN
CBB-UTEP +5 -165 0.89% - WIN

[jolmscheid]

So Chili and impper...I am sorry to be annoying, ha ha...but In YOUR GUYS' Opinion, if I were to place bets early in the day, should I set a cap on what Pinny's odds NEED to be in order to ensure myself a better opportunity of the line moving in my favor?? Like should I only bet on the sides where Pinny is leaning towards at a minimum of -107 or something?? Thanks guys.

[314cashes]

Way too many numbers involved here

[chilidog]

CBB-Wofford +11 -165 3.36% - WIN

[chilidog]

So Chili and impper...I am sorry to be annoying, ha ha...but In YOUR GUYS' Opinion, if I were to place bets early in the day, should I set a cap on what Pinny's odds NEED to be in order to ensure myself a better opportunity of the line moving in my favor?? Like should I only bet on the sides where Pinny is leaning towards at a minimum of -107 or something?? Thanks guys.

Damn electricity went out for awhile, so I missed doing the last set of games, but I'm ready to go on the remainders. I really don't have much advice on what you should do with betting games early in the day; that seems to be impper's specialty. I'm kicking butt doing what I'm doing, so I'm gonna keep on doing it

Way too many numbers involved here

Yup, there are. But hey, it's cashing in!

[chilidog]

CBB-South Carolina +5 -165 2.39% - WIN
CBB-Dayton +5 -165 3.12% - LOSS
CBB-Florida Intl -1 -165 0.93% - WIN
CBB-Illinois State -13.5 -165 0.32% - LOSS

[chilidog]

CBB-Ohio pk -105 1.45% - WIN
CBB-Bowling Green +15.5 -165 3.74% - WIN
CBB-Syracuse -3 -165 0.92% - WIN
CBB-Marist +6 -165 1.78% - LOSS
CBB-Georgia State -0.5 -165 0.41% - LOSS

[chilidog]

And lastly ...

CBB-Wisc Milwaukee +12 -165 1.90% - WIN
CBB-South Dakota -2.5 -165 0.45% - LOSS
CBB-Boise State -8.5 -165 1.92% - WIN
CBB-Utah St -13 -165 0.25% - LOSS
CBB-Drake +10.5 -165 0.74% - WIN
CBB-Cal Santa Barbara +6.5 -165 0.18% - LOSS
CBB-Loyola Marymount +10 -165 3.80% - WIN
CBB-Sacramento State +5.5 -165 2.32% - WIN
CBB-Kansas -5.5 -165 2.60% - WIN

GL!!