Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[jolmscheid]

Yea Cheme and impper...it sucked I went 4-2 last night and still lost money cuz my Wizards play was weighted heavier...oh well....what do you guys have for today on CBB? I got a lot of plays...I did these at about 11:15 or so:

LA Tech +5

St. Joseph's +6

Austin Peay -2.5

So. Illinois +16

VCU +5.5

N. Colorado +6

Arizona -10.5

VT -1.5

Murray State +11

St. John's -8.5

W. Carolina -2.5

GT +5.5

BYU -10.5


Since this is Cheme's thread and I shouldn't be posting and clogging his thread up with these plays, lemme know...just want to see if some of my plays are similar to your guys' impper and Chili

[chilidog]

Pretty interesting - I didn't bet it, just tracked it, but the Wisconsin/BC game that's going on now. When I ran the numbers about 2 hours out, BC was the play. I ran them again 1 hour before, and BC was still the play. Then 30 minutes before gametime, Wisconsin was the play. BC was the dog (BC +10 buying the points, or Wisc -4 buying the points), and BC is currently winning.

That part that is frustrating is knowing when exactly to pull the trigger, because of games flipflopping like this.

Wisconsin won, even without buying the 3 points. However, buying the 3 points either way, both teams won.

[chilidog]

So far, I have:

CBB-Wisconsin -4 -165 1.58% - WIN
CBB-Austin Peay -2.5 -165 2.68% - WIN
CBB-VA Commonwealth +5 -165 2.77% - WIN
CBB-Texas A&M CC -1 -155 2.63% - WIN
CBB-Oklahoma State +8 -165 1.50% - WIN

[chilidog]

CBB-Arkansas LR -2.5 -105 1.30% - WIN

[incomeraise]

nice chilldog.looks like ur pick will do well today...at least the one with the bigger edge!!

[chilidog]

CBB-California +6 -165 2.89% - LOSS
CBB-Depaul -3.5 -165 2.27% - LOSS
CBB-Mercer +9 -165 4.77% - WIN

[chilidog]

CBB-Georgia Tech +4.5 -165 3.56% - WIN

[chilidog]

CBB-Wright State +9.5 -165 0.59% - LOSS
CBB-BYU -10.5 -165 1.55% - LOSS

[chilidog]

CBB-Penn State +9.5 -165 0.92% - LOSS

[chilidog]

CBB-Georgia +7 -165 1.23% - PUSH
CBB-Gardner Webb +15.5 -165 4.15% - WIN

[chilidog]

Final plays:

CBB-UAB +7 -165 1.30% - WIN
CBB-Purdue -10.5 -165 4.22% - WIN
CBB-Saint Mary's Ca -1.5 -165 0.77% - WIN
CBB-Murray State +11 -165 4.42% - LOSS
CBB-St. John's -8.5 -165 2.68% - WIN
CBB-UL Monroe +5.5 -165 2.32% - WIN
CBB-Washington State -4 -165 2.74% - WIN
CBB-Arizona -9.5 -165 2.25% - WIN
CBB-Arizona State -3 -165 0.92% - LOSS

GL!

[impper]

Pretty interesting - I didn't bet it, just tracked it, but the Wisconsin/BC game that's going on now. When I ran the numbers about 2 hours out, BC was the play. I ran them again 1 hour before, and BC was still the play. Then 30 minutes before gametime, Wisconsin was the play. BC was the dog (BC +10 buying the points, or Wisc -4 buying the points), and BC is currently winning.

That part that is frustrating is knowing when exactly to pull the trigger, because of games flipflopping like this.

i'm pretty sure the answer is that BC was good value at all the times you calculated it, until a lot of people began putting money on the value. then the line or the juice adjusted and wisconsin became the better value . . . both ways would have been good plays so long as there was value there. without knowing if the line moved it's hard to say if the game just moved against you or you beat the line movement

[impper]

up huge so far on the day. 11-2 with about 5 more bets looking like sure things, and another 3 that could go either way at halftime. looks like thanksgiving was an aberration... hopefully

[impper]

17-3 with 4 more plays to go and 2 of those plays big bets on new orleans +7, +25 units so far. Beast mode!!!!

[chilidog]

very awesome day today!!! let me total up everything real quick

[chilidog]

6-1 in NBA for +7.3 units

I have 2 games outstanding in CBB, but so far, I'm at 15-6, with +17.6 units. Making it a total of 21-7 for the night, and up +24.9 units. Like I said, there are still 2 games left in CBB. One of them is definitely going to win, and the other could go either way. Regardless, freakin awesome !!!

[impper]

yeah, this more than makes up for my losing thanksgiving day. -6 units on thanksgiving, +30 units and counting today. this is my best day so far, and i didnt even get a lot of time to place my bets.

[chilidog]

Definitely! I lost about 9 units yesterday, and today is shaping up to be very very nice. I just have one game left, and it's currently tied, so it really could go either way.

If I lose this last game, then I'll finish up today at around +24 units. If I win it, then I'll finish up around +26 units. Either way, you just can't beat this!!

[chilidog]

So, that's +17 units on Wednesday, -9 units on Thursday, and +25 units today. Woooohooooo! You just can't +33 units in 3 days!

[impper]

this is really great, feels almost like cheating... we should keep a lid on the system

[jolmscheid]

When did you guys place your bets? I just don't understand....I am not getting near the numbers you guys are! Can you check out the plays I listed? I know im doin it right and I placed the bets at about 11:15 is that too early? Please help me out ... I just don't get how you guys are killing it and I have been around even the last few days. Thanks guys I really appreciate it. BTW I had the bulls suns and raptors in nba too in addition to the cbb plays I listed all done at between 11:00-11:15

[jolmscheid]

I think I probably did the plays a little early in the day because I calculated my numbers to the closers and I only matched / beat the closing line on 10 out of my 16 games I wagered on (62.5%)....I think I need to match / beat the closing line by about 66+% as a goal....so maybe waiting an hour or two later in the day would help me beat / match the closing line with greater efficiency


The last couple of days I am 15-8 (65.22%) and I am DOWN 3.5 units (I am using immper's formula for my edge and how much I bet)....that's why I must be doing the plays at the wrong time if you guys are up 30 UNITS!!!! What percent do we need to hit on these to be profitable...(I understand that different plays have different edges) Thanks so much Chili and impper...

[tgrbb]

posting selctions

Impper,

I believe you said you post your selections on another forum.
Would you tell us the forum?

[impper]

I think I probably did the plays a little early in the day because I calculated my numbers to the closers and I only matched / beat the closing line on 10 out of my 16 games I wagered on (62.5%)....I think I need to match / beat the closing line by about 66+% as a goal....so maybe waiting an hour or two later in the day would help me beat / match the closing line with greater efficiency


The last couple of days I am 15-8 (65.22%) and I am DOWN 3.5 units (I am using immper's formula for my edge and how much I bet)....that's why I must be doing the plays at the wrong time if you guys are up 30 UNITS!!!! What percent do we need to hit on these to be profitable...(I understand that different plays have different edges) Thanks so much Chili and impper...

jolm, yesterday I calculated my numbers at about 5 or 6 am the day before for half of my games, only choosing games where the advantage was big, and i calculated the other half at about 6 pm if I remember correctly. When I get home later I can post the screen, which will give the exact times I made the bets. I only bet at these times because that was where my wonky schedule was. I think the key to picking early games is to not even touch games where you have only a marginal advantage (i.e. a -106 or a -105 play).

So why pick early in the day? We can find games that are likely to move in our favor; should this happen our edge becomes very big.

Why pick closer to gametime? The lines are sharper and more stable, so marginal advantages will tend to stick. At 6 PM, you can feel free to calculate the -105 games, as it is unlikely for the line to move.

There's a sliding scale here and how you bet this depends more on your schedule and your risk tolerance than anything else. Earlier in the day there is more risk, but if you're making good plays there should be bigger payoffs as well.

As long as you're getting edges though, the numbers should eventually move in your favor. I don't think I can keep having monster days like this . . .

We need to hit better than 62% to be profitable in the long run. A game with a 1% edge will tend to hit around 65%, and games with a 2%+ edge tend to hit around 66-67%, and if you get big line movements or find weak lines at your book you can get 3-5% or higher edges, which hit at 68-69%. If you're hitting 65% and you're down 3.5 units, i'd say you just had a bad run...

I've noticed that many of these games I"m betting are hitting on both sides. I'll need to gather some longer term data, but I'm becoming more and more confident that betting both sides (as long as there is edge on each side) is as profitable or more profitable than betting these straight. The ideal way to do this would be to run the lines a few times a day.

I'm also going to be collecting some data to see how often throwing some money on the moneyline works in our favor. I've noticed that our winning dog bets seem to win the game outright a lot more often than the implied probability would suggest. But that's just a hunch at this point

[impper]

some more thoughts jolm:

I noticed that the lines tend to move on pinnacle by a lot around noon. i'm not sure why, but that's how it is. betus often goes down around 7 or 8 in the morning, and when they come back up their lines are almost perfectly matched up with pinnacle's, but afterwards they get lazy and are slow to update. start to look for patterns at your book about when numbers are updated, and try to pay attention to when and how often pinnacle updates their numbers. remember they are a primarily non-us book and if a lot of euro money is coming in they're a good deal of hours ahead of us. just look for trends and i think you can get better at finding good times for weak lines at your own book.

[chilidog]

Personally, for the day games, I ran the numbers 30 minutes before gametime, and it kicked ass. For the night games, I ran the numbers between 5-5:30pm, CST, and that also worked really good. Cheme always said that it's best to do it as close to gametime as you can. However, if you're going to do it early in the day, then you can't just blindly use the calculator, you have to pay attention to the lines and pick your spots.

[chilidog]

I've also decided that I'm going back to the cheme-basics of it all, since I kicked ass in the first part of November, strictly following what he said. And that was running the numbers as close to gametime as you can, and betting the edge percentage in relation to the bankroll for that sport. So, if my bankroll is at +200 units for NBA, and I have a 2.3% edge on a play, then I will bet 4.6 units on that play. As cheme says, this will minimize your losses, and maximize your winnings. It's been working really good for me, so I'm sticking with it. Keep in mind that this is not your total bankroll - I have a separate bankroll for each sport, and I keep track of units gained/lost with each sport. So, if you're just going to bet NBA/CBB, divide your bankroll in half, and treat it as 2 separate bankrolls. Your bets will be smaller in the beginning, but as the season progresses, they will get larger. Cheme was starting the NBA season doing 1-2 unit bets, and now he's up to 5-10 unit bets.

Inversely, impper's way is working just as good, but you can't just blindly input the numbers so early in the day. You have to read the lines. I guess that I'm lucky that I have to sit in front of a computer all day for my job, and I have 2 24" monitors, so it's rather easy for me to have multiple browser windows open on one monitor, and my work on the other.

Keep in mind that cheme usually posted his NBA plays somewhere around 5pm. Sometimes it would be earlier if he wasn't going to be around for the evening, but I've seen him post his NBA plays around 6:45pm as well, when the 7pm games start. You really want to be as close to gametime as you can, and I did so well yesterday by doing them 30 minutes before gametime, and then doing the night games at 5:30-6:30pm.

[chilidog]

this is really great, feels almost like cheating... we should keep a lid on the system

I know, right? The good part about this is that most people simply don't understand it. It's easy as pie now that I understand it, but in the beginning, it was rather puzzling to me, and it did take me a little bit to figure it out. I have to give cheme full credit for that, and for explaining everything so detailed. But even after him explaining it, people still are scratching their heads over it. So, I don't think that we have to worry about it getting out. The half-point calculator has been out for quite some time now, and people rarely talk about it outside of the Handicapper Think Tank, so I think that we're good to go.

[chilidog]

I'm also going to be collecting some data to see how often throwing some money on the moneyline works in our favor. I've noticed that our winning dog bets seem to win the game outright a lot more often than the implied probability would suggest. But that's just a hunch at this point

I saw the other day that on one of my CBB bets, the ML was freakin +800, and they won outright, so there's definitely something there with the ML bets.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Chili and impper a lot!!!! OK...so if my schedule only allows me to play games earlier in the day like at 3 for example, do you think I should look at the lines where I am ONLY getting at least -107 / -103 at Pinny???

Also, I know impper said he was placing bets at noon and doing really well....are you still doing that DAILY impper?? I just know you said that you look at the stronger lines that Pinny is leaning towards and hop on those because for the most part, they end up moving in your favor and you get a great edge...

So as of now, you guys do the EARLY games on the weekends, and wait until later for the late games......and during the weekdays, you try to wait til 5-6...OK, I can try to do that as well, however, I cannot do that all the time....And finally, what is a good percentage of our wagers we should shoot for in terms of beating / matching the closing line???

As for my bankroll, I plan on using impper's formula and so as my bankroll HOPEFULLY increases, my unit size will increase which will spit out higher numbers in impper's formula....please advise if I am wrong here...

Thanks a lot you guys, I really appreciate it...

[GGZOLA]

chili,
did you guys play ncaab yet or maybe so many couldnt post them?

[chilidog]

There's only been one game so far that fit the system, and it's currently being played:

Illinois -9.5 -165 1.11% - WIN

There's a ton of games today, so I might not be able to post the plays in time, since I run the numbers and make the plays so close to gametime.

[GGZOLA]

np...understood

[chilidog]

Davidson +10.5 -165 0.36% - LOSS
Iowa State -10.5 -165 2.28% - WIN
Vanderbilt -11.5 -165 0.77% - WIN

[GGZOLA]

if u can squeeze anymore (time permitting ) dog I'll be waiting....thx