Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[SecretGreene]

Happy Thanksgiving! Chili you are on to something, please keep doing what you do, and you will be rewarded Fruitfully or with a lot of Chili!

[jolmscheid]

I had a good night last night too Chili...I want to use impper's formula as I think that can maximize our winnings for sure...I don't know how much variance it causes though??

[chilidog]

Well, that would depend on how much we start losing, lol. For instance, impper's formula had Minnesota (NBA) at a 9 unit play last night. Had that lost, that would've sucked a lot. I'm not comfortable using it just yet, just going to track it for now

[jolmscheid]

Yea I understand for sure...I think I might go for it since I have -170 odds, so my edges are usually a lot smaller than yours at -165

[jolmscheid]

What do you have so far for NCAAB Chili? I have:

Boston College +9.5

Cal +8

OK. State -7

Tulsa +12.5

Weber State -6.5

[chilidog]

Haven't ran the numbers yet on the rest of the games. I'm on Texas A&M, because that's where the line was at this morning when I ran the lines, but yah, it's since moved against me to Boston, so yah, I'll probably lose that one.

I'll run the rest of the numbers in a little bit.

[GGZOLA]

chili, I had same number problem with boston college game, and laid off it. What do you do when presented
with situations when a team has the egde early, then its reversed? Seems timing is hard, because there is no general
time frame sharps hit the games?

[chilidog]

I think that for early games, it's probably best to wait 30-60 minutes before gametime. Same goes for the night games, unless you can do the games earlier in the day.

[GGZOLA]

i concur
good luck today, and happy TG

[chilidog]

Well congrats if you were on BC; I knew I would lose that game after the line moved against me as it got closer to gametime.

[incomeraise]

yeah i lost it 2...

[dikgarland]

perhaps a stupid question, but where is Cheme82?

[chilidog]

Who knows; he said he was taking a break. It is Thanksgiving week, and I know he was getting pretty busy with college exams and stuff.

[GGZOLA]

chili u gonna lock in the cbb today and post?

[impper]

hey chili, about minnesota being a 9 point play yesterday:: i also said that we should put a cap on the max units to put in play. i cap at 7.5 right now, but i'm going to move it to 10 soon as i cant think of a good reason to have a small-ish cap. i could think of some decent reasons to even cap out plays at 5 units, but then we're getting really conservative . . .

i picked boston when i ran the numbers last night too, so i'm up a bit on the day. running my numbers for today in a minute

[impper]

for today i have:

tulsa +12.5
alaska anchorage +12
murray state +5.5

[impper]

man it feels weird not having as much as half the bankroll in play...

oh well, i guess i'll just have to enjoy thanksgiving

good luck with your plays today guys. see you

[chilidog]

I'm on the same, but also have Temple, and then Washington in NBA

[impper]

i got on washington pretty big last night for +11. line moved to +7 at betus now so i'm feeling pretty good about it

[GGZOLA]

head scratcher why murray st is drawing action, IMHO

[pokerwhiz90]

lol so where is cheme?

[GoldenBullet11]

Hey guys just caught eye of this thread. it seems to be doing well in plays so i think ill follow for the time...

[impper]

i'm getting killed today. -10 units its looking like. sheesh

[impper]

actually tulsa keeps pushing it back to around 13-14 we'll see how it goes

[GGZOLA]

wow o and infinity....ufb

[impper]

Tulsa saves my life!! Good stuff

[incomeraise]

same here...had a rough night...tulsa did help me out

[chilidog]

ouch! wtf happened here? rough night indeed

[impper]

today wouldn't even have been so bad if i hadnt made a bonehead bet against the clippers

[chilidog]

I'm glad that I ended up crashing early last night, because paying attention to the scores is brutal. The down side to that is waking up so dang early. At least I fell back asleep, though, which rarely happens with me.

On to another day!

[impper]

i tell myself over and over and over not to watch the scores or even the games, but i end up doing it whenever i'm at a computer. it's maddening

[chilidog]

i tell myself over and over and over not to watch the scores or even the games, but i end up doing it whenever i'm at a computer. it's maddening

Oh I definitely know how that goes. It's too hard not to, but it drives me crazy. It happens so many times that your team is either up or down at halftime, and then it gets down to the last 5 minutes of the game, and it can go either way. It seems so rare that we just outright win a game without it coming down to the final minutes.

And even if I'm away from my computer, I have a laptop that I keep on my nightstand, then there's ESPN on TV, and if we go out, I have a cell phone with internet on it. It's madness!

[impper]

that feeling's all too familiar. i'm gonna have to start getting into the buddhism, the yoga, meditation, mantras, nirvana, sweet release!

[chilidog]

Pretty interesting - I didn't bet it, just tracked it, but the Wisconsin/BC game that's going on now. When I ran the numbers about 2 hours out, BC was the play. I ran them again 1 hour before, and BC was still the play. Then 30 minutes before gametime, Wisconsin was the play. BC was the dog (BC +10 buying the points, or Wisc -4 buying the points), and BC is currently winning.

That part that is frustrating is knowing when exactly to pull the trigger, because of games flipflopping like this.

[katyblazy]

I'll wait: Cheme will be back (i hope)