Cheme82's CBB plays for November

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  • chilidog
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-05-09
    • 10305

    #351
    I tell you what, whoever came with up the formulas behind the halfpoint calculator is a genius. I wonder how much data went into it, to tell how often a game with a certain spread, at a certain, hits more often than another, etc. Just pure genius.
    Comment
    • chilidog
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-05-09
      • 10305

      #352
      Originally posted by GGZOLA
      one more perplexing question is, what time do you guys determine is optimal for edge for placing wagers with so much line fluctuation in the whole day?
      Originally, I was waiting 1-3 hours before gametime to place them, and while that was working just fine for NBA, it sucked for CBB.

      So, impper said he was doing it around noon, to take advantage of early lines, and it's been working exceptionally well for him.
      Comment
      • impper
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-11-10
        • 490

        #353
        Originally posted by GGZOLA
        one more perplexing question is, what time do you guys determine is optimal for edge for placing wagers with so much line fluctuation in the whole day?
        the closer you are to game time the less you have to worry about line movement. of course, if the line moves in your direction you're getting a lot of value
        Comment
        • impper
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-11-10
          • 490

          #354
          Originally posted by chilidog
          I tell you what, whoever came with up the formulas behind the halfpoint calculator is a genius. I wonder how much data went into it, to tell how often a game with a certain spread, at a certain, hits more often than another, etc. Just pure genius.
          it was a guy on this forum called granchrow. he has al ot of amazing posts about other concepts like implied probability and other maths which have been incredibly helpful for my betting

          i asked this of cheme, whether the data in the half point calculator will ever become outdated. the data in the HPC is from like 15 or 20 years, 1990-2006 or something like that. if scoring trends or rule changes change by even small amounts, it could possibly throw many of the calculations off.

          maybe not though . . . the stats have been amazingly consistent from decade to decade
          Comment
          • GGZOLA
            SBR MVP
            • 06-30-06
            • 1118

            #355
            MATCHBOOK has 3 sets of linesof course. You guys go with the first shaded line, i.e. the "best' line?
            Comment
            • chilidog
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-05-09
              • 10305

              #356
              Originally posted by impper

              it was a guy on this forum called granchrow. he has al ot of amazing posts about other concepts like implied probability and other maths which have been incredibly helpful for my betting

              i asked this of cheme, whether the data in the half point calculator will ever become outdated. the data in the HPC is from like 15 or 20 years, 1990-2006 or something like that. if scoring trends or rule changes change by even small amounts, it could possibly throw many of the calculations off.

              maybe not though . . . the stats have been amazingly consistent from decade to decade
              Thanks! Time to start reading up on his posts then.
              Comment
              • chilidog
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-05-09
                • 10305

                #357
                Originally posted by GGZOLA
                MATCHBOOK has 3 sets of linesof course. You guys go with the first shaded line, i.e. the "best' line?
                I use the lines for matchbook/pinny from sbrodds.com when it's closer to gametime, and I have my sportsbook account open in another browser on my 2nd monitor.

                During the day, I don't mess with matchbook, because the lines are too screwy around noon.
                Comment
                • impper
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-11-10
                  • 490

                  #358
                  by the way if you want to bet straightup without buying points matchbook is bar none the best for this. no juice
                  Comment
                  • GGZOLA
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-30-06
                    • 1118

                    #359
                    for now i played each nba game staight up. I have to fund my rebatewgr account because its the only one I can buy 3 points for -170. (hoops, that is.) and i am not touching brobury or whatever the **** theyre called and sportsbook.com
                    Comment
                    • chilidog
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-05-09
                      • 10305

                      #360
                      I'm just going to track them for now on not buying the points.
                      Comment
                      • GGZOLA
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-30-06
                        • 1118

                        #361
                        chili,its just a mathematical improbability without the edges to hit anywhere near this percentage. It should even out numbers dont lie. Seems only hope (long run) is to have a book with good 3-pt buys and pray they dont boot you after kicking their heads in on a weekly basis...but yeah why not track
                        Comment
                        • chilidog
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-05-09
                          • 10305

                          #362
                          Here we go boys! Best of luck to ya'll!
                          Comment
                          • impper
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-11-10
                            • 490

                            #363
                            looks like chaminade and presbyterian not only covered but won their games outrght, haha
                            Comment
                            • chilidog
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-05-09
                              • 10305

                              #364
                              yah I know, I hope it's a sign of an awesome night. When I ran the numbers around 12-1, they weren't plays with my local, so I didn't take them. I think the lines were still -105/-105 on pinny for both games when I stopped paying attention to the numbers, so I just skipped the games. I have enough on my plate for tonight anyway, heh
                              Comment
                              • impper
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-11-10
                                • 490

                                #365
                                i wish i had some powerful databases. what are the chances a line won't move if it stays even at pinnacle with no fluctuations at all for 3-4 hours
                                Comment
                                • chilidog
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-05-09
                                  • 10305

                                  #366
                                  Yah, that would be some nice info to have, but would take a lot of data collecting.
                                  Comment
                                  • jolmscheid
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-20-10
                                    • 3256

                                    #367
                                    Originally posted by impper
                                    by the way if you want to bet straightup without buying points matchbook is bar none the best for this. no juice
                                    But what about Matchbook's commision? Doesn't that add some juice??

                                    And also impper...I didn't really understand how you come up with how much to bet? I know you told me but I didn't really understand it...

                                    So if you have an edge of say 1.33%, what is your wager? What is your wager on an edge of 2.04% or 3.67% etc etc....I just want to know how you do it as you have been doing pretty good....

                                    I think Chili just bets exactly what his edge is?????

                                    Thanks guys..
                                    Comment
                                    • jolmscheid
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 02-20-10
                                      • 3256

                                      #368
                                      Hey guys...I showed Oklahoma as having an edge at -13 over Chaminade earlier in the day...did you guys have the edge with Chaminade?
                                      Comment
                                      • jolmscheid
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 02-20-10
                                        • 3256

                                        #369
                                        Maybe I did the calcs when the lines were still at -105 which I should have passed on early in the day...
                                        Comment
                                        • jolmscheid
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 02-20-10
                                          • 3256

                                          #370
                                          Well impper...going with what you said on betting earlier in the day between 12-2 or so, that one should hop on the games where there are edges when Pinny is favoring one side...I placed over 20 bets today and I think that only 2 or 3 of them ended moving a 1/2 point against me now...is that pretty good??
                                          Comment
                                          • chilidog
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-05-09
                                            • 10305

                                            #371
                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid

                                            But what about Matchbook's commision? Doesn't that add some juice??

                                            And also impper...I didn't really understand how you come up with how much to bet? I know you told me but I didn't really understand it...

                                            So if you have an edge of say 1.33%, what is your wager? What is your wager on an edge of 2.04% or 3.67% etc etc....I just want to know how you do it as you have been doing pretty good....

                                            I think Chili just bets exactly what his edge is?????

                                            Thanks guys..
                                            Yah, I was just betting my edge, but trying something different tonight. As for the formula that impper said, it was 1 + (edge * 1.41). So if your edge is 1.33 = 1+ (1.33 * 1.41), which equals 2.9, so you'd bet around 2.9 units. I think that impper said that he rounds the edge to the nearest 50 cent, and then goes from there. I have no clue how he came up with this formula though.

                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                            Hey guys...I showed Oklahoma as having an edge at -13 over Chaminade earlier in the day...did you guys have the edge with Chaminade?
                                            I showed an edge with chaminade when I ran the numbers on betus lines around 10am CST, but not when I ran them around noon-1pm using my local's numbers, so I didn't play it.

                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                            Maybe I did the calcs when the lines were still at -105 which I should have passed on early in the day...
                                            Yah, I passed on any lines that were still -105/-105, and waiting until the line moved to see if it was good or not.

                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                            Well impper...going with what you said on betting earlier in the day between 12-2 or so, that one should hop on the games where there are edges when Pinny is favoring one side...I placed over 20 bets today and I think that only 2 or 3 of them ended moving a 1/2 point against me now...is that pretty good??
                                            Yah, I'd say that's pretty good. Now let's sit back and cross our fingers.
                                            Comment
                                            • jolmscheid
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 02-20-10
                                              • 3256

                                              #372
                                              Chili using that formula are you RISKING those amounts that imppers formula gives or are you playing TO WIN what the formula gives? Thanks chili....and yea it'd be nice to know how and why impper uses that formula??
                                              Comment
                                              • chilidog
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-05-09
                                                • 10305

                                                #373
                                                I play to win, but if your bankroll can't handle it right now, then just bet to risk until you build it up to handle the massive amounts of plays we have going on. For instance, I have 28 bets going on. If I used impper's formula, then I would need about 96 units if I were playing to risk, and about 160 units if I were playing to win. You need a bankroll to do this, so if your bankroll is smaller right now, just bet to risk until you build it up. Nothing wrong with doing that at all.
                                                Comment
                                                • chilidog
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 04-05-09
                                                  • 10305

                                                  #374
                                                  I still have a few CBB games to go, but for NBA, I went 5-3, picking up +2.1 units. Now, had I used impper's formula for my units, I would've picked up +9.6 units.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • chilidog
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                    • 10305

                                                    #375
                                                    I went 15-4 today on CBB, picking up about +17 units, woohoo

                                                    So, my total for today, including NBA/CBB, is 20-7, picking up about +19 units. Now, had I used impper's formula to determine my betting unit, I would've been up about +42 units.

                                                    Overall, very very awesome day!! Thanks impper for explaining in detail what you're doing, because it worked out incredibly well!!!

                                                    Comment
                                                    • chilidog
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-05-09
                                                      • 10305

                                                      #376
                                                      also, the 3 points didn't save me one single time today!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fennigan
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 05-05-10
                                                        • 20

                                                        #377
                                                        Might seem like a silly question but not quite sure where everyone is from. This 12-2 time to bet CBB, is that EST?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • impper
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-11-10
                                                          • 490

                                                          #378
                                                          congrats on the big day chili i didn't do as well, i felt like i was getting murdered for a while but i still came out 5 units ahead (to my surprise). 4 of my games including one of my large bets lost by one point or less, which would have swung me to a monster day, but ah hell what can ya do...

                                                          as far as the formula goes, i just thought for a while about what exactly it is we're trying to do. my original thought was to go with simply edge * 2, but that is more prone to variance and large swings, so the formula i gave gives you a nice floor and a steady amount of winnings when you are consistently winning (which is exactly what this system is designed to do), while also pushing a lot of units out there when you have a big edge. it brings us to a nice and stable center point while also seeking advantages when they are there.

                                                          nothing is set in stone so you're free to modify that formula for your own needs
                                                          Comment
                                                          • impper
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-11-10
                                                            • 490

                                                            #379
                                                            i'm on central time, so i mean 12-2 central.

                                                            jolm: having only 2 or 3 games move against you is good! you may want to keep track also of how many move FOR you, because those are the plays where you're getting monster odds.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • chilidog
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-05-09
                                                              • 10305

                                                              #380
                                                              Originally posted by impper
                                                              congrats on the big day chili i didn't do as well, i felt like i was getting murdered for a while but i still came out 5 units ahead (to my surprise). 4 of my games including one of my large bets lost by one point or less, which would have swung me to a monster day, but ah hell what can ya do...

                                                              as far as the formula goes, i just thought for a while about what exactly it is we're trying to do. my original thought was to go with simply edge * 2, but that is more prone to variance and large swings, so the formula i gave gives you a nice floor and a steady amount of winnings when you are consistently winning (which is exactly what this system is designed to do), while also pushing a lot of units out there when you have a big edge. it brings us to a nice and stable center point while also seeking advantages when they are there.

                                                              nothing is set in stone so you're free to modify that formula for your own needs
                                                              thanks it felt good to finally get dialed into CBB!

                                                              Originally posted by impper
                                                              i'm on central time, so i mean 12-2 central.

                                                              jolm: having only 2 or 3 games move against you is good! you may want to keep track also of how many move FOR you, because those are the plays where you're getting monster odds.
                                                              Perfect, I'm on central time as well (i live in costa rica, and we have no daylight savings time, but right now I'm on central time. I was on mountain time not too long ago), and I really like doing the math around noon.

                                                              For the early CBB game, I have:

                                                              Texas A&M -3
                                                              Comment
                                                              • WVUsuperfan
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 08-06-08
                                                                • 769

                                                                #381
                                                                where the heck are you getting a&m at -3?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • WVUsuperfan
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 08-06-08
                                                                  • 769

                                                                  #382
                                                                  nevermind.. im assuming you are talking about the football game and not basketball
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • chilidog
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                                    • 10305

                                                                    #383
                                                                    Yup, I said CBB, and this is the college basketball thread.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • WVUsuperfan
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 08-06-08
                                                                      • 769

                                                                      #384
                                                                      gotya
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • GGZOLA
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 06-30-06
                                                                        • 1118

                                                                        #385
                                                                        wow chili impressive college night....just glad to win ANYTHING on nba plays at 5-3...ty
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