I tell you what, whoever came with up the formulas behind the halfpoint calculator is a genius. I wonder how much data went into it, to tell how often a game with a certain spread, at a certain, hits more often than another, etc. Just pure genius.
Cheme82's CBB plays for November
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chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#351Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#352
So, impper said he was doing it around noon, to take advantage of early lines, and it's been working exceptionally well for him.Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#353the closer you are to game time the less you have to worry about line movement. of course, if the line moves in your direction you're getting a lot of valueComment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#354
i asked this of cheme, whether the data in the half point calculator will ever become outdated. the data in the HPC is from like 15 or 20 years, 1990-2006 or something like that. if scoring trends or rule changes change by even small amounts, it could possibly throw many of the calculations off.
maybe not though . . . the stats have been amazingly consistent from decade to decadeComment -
GGZOLASBR MVP
- 06-30-06
- 1118
#355MATCHBOOK has 3 sets of linesof course. You guys go with the first shaded line, i.e. the "best' line?Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#356
it was a guy on this forum called granchrow. he has al ot of amazing posts about other concepts like implied probability and other maths which have been incredibly helpful for my betting
i asked this of cheme, whether the data in the half point calculator will ever become outdated. the data in the HPC is from like 15 or 20 years, 1990-2006 or something like that. if scoring trends or rule changes change by even small amounts, it could possibly throw many of the calculations off.
maybe not though . . . the stats have been amazingly consistent from decade to decadeComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#357
During the day, I don't mess with matchbook, because the lines are too screwy around noon.Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#358by the way if you want to bet straightup without buying points matchbook is bar none the best for this. no juiceComment -
GGZOLASBR MVP
- 06-30-06
- 1118
#359for now i played each nba game staight up. I have to fund my rebatewgr account because its the only one I can buy 3 points for -170. (hoops, that is.) and i am not touching brobury or whatever the **** theyre called and sportsbook.comComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#360I'm just going to track them for now on not buying the points.Comment -
GGZOLASBR MVP
- 06-30-06
- 1118
#361chili,its just a mathematical improbability without the edges to hit anywhere near this percentage. It should even out numbers dont lie. Seems only hope (long run) is to have a book with good 3-pt buys and pray they dont boot you after kicking their heads in on a weekly basis...but yeah why not trackComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#362Here we go boys! Best of luck to ya'll!Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#363looks like chaminade and presbyterian not only covered but won their games outrght, hahaComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#364yah I know, I hope it's a sign of an awesome night. When I ran the numbers around 12-1, they weren't plays with my local, so I didn't take them. I think the lines were still -105/-105 on pinny for both games when I stopped paying attention to the numbers, so I just skipped the games. I have enough on my plate for tonight anyway, hehComment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#365i wish i had some powerful databases. what are the chances a line won't move if it stays even at pinnacle with no fluctuations at all for 3-4 hoursComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#366Yah, that would be some nice info to have, but would take a lot of data collecting.Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#367
And also impper...I didn't really understand how you come up with how much to bet? I know you told me but I didn't really understand it...
So if you have an edge of say 1.33%, what is your wager? What is your wager on an edge of 2.04% or 3.67% etc etc....I just want to know how you do it as you have been doing pretty good....
I think Chili just bets exactly what his edge is?????
Thanks guys..Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#368Hey guys...I showed Oklahoma as having an edge at -13 over Chaminade earlier in the day...did you guys have the edge with Chaminade?Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#369Maybe I did the calcs when the lines were still at -105 which I should have passed on early in the day...Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#370Well impper...going with what you said on betting earlier in the day between 12-2 or so, that one should hop on the games where there are edges when Pinny is favoring one side...I placed over 20 bets today and I think that only 2 or 3 of them ended moving a 1/2 point against me now...is that pretty good??Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#371
But what about Matchbook's commision? Doesn't that add some juice??
And also impper...I didn't really understand how you come up with how much to bet? I know you told me but I didn't really understand it...
So if you have an edge of say 1.33%, what is your wager? What is your wager on an edge of 2.04% or 3.67% etc etc....I just want to know how you do it as you have been doing pretty good....
I think Chili just bets exactly what his edge is?????
Thanks guys..
Well impper...going with what you said on betting earlier in the day between 12-2 or so, that one should hop on the games where there are edges when Pinny is favoring one side...I placed over 20 bets today and I think that only 2 or 3 of them ended moving a 1/2 point against me now...is that pretty good??Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#372Chili using that formula are you RISKING those amounts that imppers formula gives or are you playing TO WIN what the formula gives? Thanks chili....and yea it'd be nice to know how and why impper uses that formula??Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#373I play to win, but if your bankroll can't handle it right now, then just bet to risk until you build it up to handle the massive amounts of plays we have going on. For instance, I have 28 bets going on. If I used impper's formula, then I would need about 96 units if I were playing to risk, and about 160 units if I were playing to win. You need a bankroll to do this, so if your bankroll is smaller right now, just bet to risk until you build it up. Nothing wrong with doing that at all.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#374I still have a few CBB games to go, but for NBA, I went 5-3, picking up +2.1 units. Now, had I used impper's formula for my units, I would've picked up +9.6 units.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#375I went 15-4 today on CBB, picking up about +17 units, woohoo
So, my total for today, including NBA/CBB, is 20-7, picking up about +19 units. Now, had I used impper's formula to determine my betting unit, I would've been up about +42 units.
Overall, very very awesome day!! Thanks impper for explaining in detail what you're doing, because it worked out incredibly well!!!
Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#376also, the 3 points didn't save me one single time today!Comment -
fenniganSBR Rookie
- 05-05-10
- 20
#377Might seem like a silly question but not quite sure where everyone is from. This 12-2 time to bet CBB, is that EST?Comment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#378congrats on the big day chilii didn't do as well, i felt like i was getting murdered for a while but i still came out 5 units ahead (to my surprise). 4 of my games including one of my large bets lost by one point or less, which would have swung me to a monster day, but ah hell what can ya do...
as far as the formula goes, i just thought for a while about what exactly it is we're trying to do. my original thought was to go with simply edge * 2, but that is more prone to variance and large swings, so the formula i gave gives you a nice floor and a steady amount of winnings when you are consistently winning (which is exactly what this system is designed to do), while also pushing a lot of units out there when you have a big edge. it brings us to a nice and stable center point while also seeking advantages when they are there.
nothing is set in stone so you're free to modify that formula for your own needsComment -
impperSBR Sharp
- 11-11-10
- 490
#379i'm on central time, so i mean 12-2 central.
jolm: having only 2 or 3 games move against you is good! you may want to keep track also of how many move FOR you, because those are the plays where you're getting monster odds.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#380congrats on the big day chilii didn't do as well, i felt like i was getting murdered for a while but i still came out 5 units ahead (to my surprise). 4 of my games including one of my large bets lost by one point or less, which would have swung me to a monster day, but ah hell what can ya do...
as far as the formula goes, i just thought for a while about what exactly it is we're trying to do. my original thought was to go with simply edge * 2, but that is more prone to variance and large swings, so the formula i gave gives you a nice floor and a steady amount of winnings when you are consistently winning (which is exactly what this system is designed to do), while also pushing a lot of units out there when you have a big edge. it brings us to a nice and stable center point while also seeking advantages when they are there.
nothing is set in stone so you're free to modify that formula for your own needsit felt good to finally get dialed into CBB!
For the early CBB game, I have:
Texas A&M -3Comment -
WVUsuperfanSBR Wise Guy
- 08-06-08
- 769
#381where the heck are you getting a&m at -3?Comment -
WVUsuperfanSBR Wise Guy
- 08-06-08
- 769
#382nevermind.. im assuming you are talking about the football game and not basketballComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#383Yup, I said CBB, and this is the college basketball thread.Comment -
WVUsuperfanSBR Wise Guy
- 08-06-08
- 769
#384gotyaComment -
GGZOLASBR MVP
- 06-30-06
- 1118
#385wow chili impressive college night....just glad to win ANYTHING on nba plays at 5-3...tyComment
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