I've got 20 total plays today boys with about half for 2 units and half for 4 units based on trying to get my bets to be more static based on the edges I get....let's hope all goes well...
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yeah. remember though that this is a system where we're betting a pretty good amount for a relatively small payout. we get around that basic handicap by pushing our biggest edges . . . the math should bear us out in the long run as long as we don't go bustoComment -
seems to me that, unless you have a soft-book with weak lines, which is a rare priviledge to play in let alone not be booted out, there is no edge to play if you deal with regular lines? Am i wrong here guys?Comment -
Yea I understand impper...so do you bet EXACLTY what your edge gives you??? Or how do you structure your wagering?Comment -
there is an edge because certain points are worth more than other points, so there are spots where point buying gives you a nice edge. this is true even if your book is perfectly sharp with regard to pinny lines. And even then there are pinny leans, and no book is going to move a line a half point because pinny or matchbook is leaning one way or the other by a slight margin. that slight margin, along with point buying is where the edge comes inComment -
yes but, problem is, buying points cost a LOT more online and its very difficult to find a local dumb enough the let you buy 1/2 points for -110 or -115 for key foots numbers. I just wanna ask one thing, will any of you guys post your plays at all while cheme82 is gone, thanks and good luck.Comment -
Can you explain a little more?? So if you have a 1.13% edge, how would you bet that?? Thank impper!Comment -
yes,sorry i know points are more with key nfl numbers. I understand line changes are volatile and edges shrink/increase literally every second.Just wondered if you guys would post some sort of consensu b4 games start, in nba or ncaab threadComment -
there are plenty of books who offer half-points for 10 cents each, most up to -150 and a good amount up to -170.
if we're doing it right, we'll all have consensus if we post picks an hour or 30 minutes pre-game. before that there are too many confounding factors to post picks unless we're all in the same context imhoComment -
can u name some impper? If you dont mind of course...best i found was dsi with 2 point max basketball buys to -150. Seems nice, it is on-par with -3 -170, but they dont allow more than 2pts in hoops.Comment -
bet jamaica and rebate wager have been named in this thread so far. i believe sportsbook.com and brobury also let you buy to -170, and there are others, i'm sure . . .can u name some impper? If you dont mind of course...best i found was dsi with 2 point max basketball buys to -150. Seems nice, it is on-par with -3 -170, but they dont allow more than 2pts in hoops.Comment -
whew, that's a lot of plays. I have 20 for CBB (and currently watching 6 more), and 8 in NBA. good luck to us
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yep, i'm approaching that number now haha. i didn't get quite so many in the nba... time to run the numbers again!Comment -
I like this way so much better. It definitely beats me rushing to crunch the numbers before gametime, plus my wife gets off of work and I want to spend time with her, etc.Comment -
i agree chili . . . nothing worse than setting a schedule around the nba/ncaa's and then having the girlfriend bug you about staring at the "screen full of numbers" just when she wants to do something...
it's great for me too because i stare at a screen full of numbers all day at work anyway
let's hope the profits can keep upComment -
Well, here's what I ended up with. There are a few plays twice, because I have 2 locals, and they don't always coincide with the same lines, which explains why some of the plays are on opposite sides (hoping for a middle!), as well as some plays being listed twice, but at different lines.
CBB
Air Force +16.5 -165
Cleveland State +5 -155
Drexel +11.5 -165
Central Michigan +7 -165
Middle Tenn St -1.5 -165
Bradley -9.5 -165
Villanova -2 -165
Utah State -7 -165
San Francisco +10 -165
Oregon State -3 -165
Connecticut +8 -165
CS Fullerton +19 -165
St Johns -8 -165
Montana State -3.5 -165
Oregon State -2.5 -165
St Johns -7.5 -165
Providence -6 -165
Virginia +8 -165
Missouri -6.5 -165
Wichita State -1.5 -170
NBA
Philadelphia +8.5 -165
Miami +7.5 -165
Memphis -3.5 -165
Dallas +7 -165
Golden State +8.5 -165
Chicago +6 -165
Utah -4 -105
Minnesota +11 -165
GL
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chili, would you reccomend i buy 2 points for -150, (i am gonna follow nba only 1st time have very limited bankroll to start) since thats all i can get for now, or would u recommend i play the nba plays straight, thx thx thxComment -
I'd really recommend that you go to the half point calculator, and plug in the numbers at 2 points for -150, and seeing where you have an edge at. My edges are going to be different than yours, and most other's, because I get 3 points at -165 (same as cheme).
That being said, cheme posted the stats without buying points at all in NBA, and I think there's only like a 20 unit loss by not betting points. He was up like +120 units with buying 3 points, and up +100 units without the 3 points.Comment -
good stuff. all my nba plays look like yours except there was no value for golden state at +8.5 -170, but i woulda bet it at -165! good luck tonight. for college there are so many plays i can barely remember them. mine look like yours for the most part though. im on uconn, st johns, central mich, among the ones i remember.
e: cheme was up by like 210 units with point buying and 190 without, if i remember correctly.
i've run the math dozens of times on the utility of point buying versus just buying straight up. as long as point buying turns a loss into a win 1 in 5 times it breaks even, and if it does it more than 1 in 5 it's profitable. it seems like these picks hit straight up without point buying way more than 52% thoughComment -
ok thank you. i just cannot do it, I tried for hours with that calculator thing but its just waaay over my head. Mind youI am a seasoned degenerate, but I just cannot grasp the calculator thing. Went to the page, even after following sbr's directions still cluless. It says "now on the bottom portion of the calculator enter second values, etc. there is no bottom half! Anyways i will try to play them staright for small see how they do, thank youComment -
It's not too difficult. On the top part of the calculator, above the 'Calculate' button, you select your sport, leave it at 'Spread', then input the spread, along with the fav/dog lines that you get from pinnacle. Then press Calculate.
Under the Calculate button is where you input the lines you get for the spreads at your own book, whether it be a local or an offshore book. The whole thing works by showing you what edge you have by buying a point, against the pinny line.Comment -
Agreed, but I hate losing, heh. Especially when a bet loses by 1-2 points, and buying the 3 points would've saved me. I've done the math tons of times as well, and I think that both ways can be argued. There have been days where buying the 3 points eliminated all profit when higher unit bets lost, and those days would've been profitable had I just bet straight up without 3 points. On the inverse, there ahve been days where buying the 3 points kept me profitable for the day, whereas not buying them would've been a net loss.
That being said, a +30 unit gain in profit by buying the 3 points is a lot, so personally, I buy the points. That is where the edge is created, and that's what I bet.Comment -
OK, gonna try one more time. I but nba, -4 for utah -116 because that was line at pinny, with dog +104. when i hit calculate it shows me a bunch of pointspreads -2 through -5 all at -2.65 fave edge and dog edge. now where exactly do i put in, for second book at -110 both sides?Comment -
i assume its where you can put where it says -4.0 out of the choices listed,from 2.0 to 5.0. so i do this, favortie edge goes from -2.56 to -0.19, still negativeComment -
Okay, I'll go with those numbers. After you input 4 as the spread, and -116 as the fav price, and +104 as the dog price, and hit calculate, and the numbers change below, you're first going to look at the center line, Spread 4, assuming that the book you're going to use to place the bets also has the line at 4. But to keep it simple, let's assume they do. Spread 4 has -116 as the fav price, and +104 as the dog price. Replace the -116 with -110, and hit enter. The fav edge is now at -0.19%, but that's still not a bet, because you only want positive edges.
So, here's where the point buying comes in. Look at the fav price for 2.5 points, vs the dog price of 5.5 points. I would first pay attention to the 2.5 spread, because the fav price is -146, which is greater than the dog edge for the 5.5 spread, which is -124.1. Now, there's a little button (it's showing up as a broken image for me right now), that's at the top of the columns. Press that a few times until you're at a spread of 1. So now, you should see spreads 1-4 in the Spread column.
Anyway, for a spread of 1 (which would be -1), you see that the fav price is -185.4. Assuming it costs you -170 to buy 3 points, this looks like it will have an edge. So replace the 185.4 with -170 and hit enter. Now you have a positive edge of 0.43% So, you would make your bet on Utah -1 -170, and for the unit amount, bet whatever you want in relation to the edge percentage.
Now, before you making your bet, you need to check if buying the 3 points for the dog would give you an greater edge. So, scroll down until you're at Spread 7, and you'll see that the number is less than -170, so there's no point in inputting the -170.
After you do this for a little while, you start to get the hang of it, and you can tell which numbers you need to calculate, and which ones to ignore.
So, there yah have it. Enjoy
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by george i think ive got it! One big,huge problem is i do not see an edge with given, actual pointspreads without buying points. I know cheme has an astronomical 70% without buying points in nba so far, but mathematically it seems there is ZERO edge if 3 points are not bought for -170 or better.
Am I wrong here?Comment -
You are correct, and for some reason, the games have been hitting straight up at such a high rate. There will be games that you'll find where you have more of an edge without buying points at all. You'll really learn over time which values you need to input. Whether you buy 1/2, 1, 2, 2.5, 3, or no points at all. You'll see different edges, and you make your bet based on the largest edge.
But yah, it's baffling why they've been hitting so high with basketball - that's definitely not the case in football.Comment -
you're right, there is a negative edge when you do not buy points. it is called the juice
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i can't say this for sure, but one thing that is certain is that those who get in before 6 pm steam or those who cause the 6 pm steam are profitable in the long run and those who follow the steam are losers in the long run.But yah, it's baffling why they've been hitting so high with basketball - that's definitely not the case in football.
what relevance does this have to this system? well, by getting good value early on, we're 'anticipating' the steam and siding with sharp bettors who are causing the lines to move. and if we're making our plays shortly pre-game, we'll generally place our bets in the opposite direction of the steam chasers, since a line that moves big one way will usually be bet the opposite way by the system AFTER the big line movement takes place, since that is where the value will be. you see this a lot with pro gamblers--they take the opposite side after a line moves big in one direction; this system dictates that very same wager be placedComment -
one more perplexing question is, what time do you guys determine is optimal for edge for placing wagers with so much line fluctuation in the whole day?Comment