is rebate wager any good? do their lines often differ from pinnacles?
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Rebate Wager does have lines that are different actually quite a bit...it is never more than a 1/2 point though!Comment -
Well, I just found out that I wasn't getting all of the available games on sbrodds. i assumed that it auto-updated, but they told me that periodically I do need to refresh the browser on that page. It went from 10 games to 30+ games. Here's the games I have tracked for tonight that both pinny/matchbook agree on:
Portland State +10 -165 0.99%/5.02%
Rhode Island -1.5 -165 1.88%/1.34%
Hofstra +9.5 -165 0.59%/0.01%
Georgia State -1 -155 2.22%/0.60%
Illinois Chicago -2.5 -165 0.09%/0.85%
Samford +12 -165 1.9%/2.07%
Minnesota +9.5 -165 0.67%/3.19%
UL Lafayette +8 -165 0.38%/1.32%
Appalachian St +11.5 -165 1.19%/3.44%
Xavier -2.5 -165 0.09%/0.28%
Portland +7 -105 1.25%/4.08%
Navy +13 -165 3.98%/7.86%
San Diego +5.5 -165 2.32%/1.35%Comment -
portland state's getting killed right nowComment -
haha yea i was just commenting because i made the same play earlier today. these college dogs are dangerous to play...Comment -
10-3 with the plays...maybe we should actually start playing them...also if you notice, by going with matchbook the edge, so the percentage was bigger on portland, portland state and navy; the 3 plays lost!! so with buying points am not sure we would have been up, at least not as much as by just following the pinnacle lines for the edge,point is maybewe can make sure the 2 books agree and play with pinnacle edge%Comment -
Agreed, had we played the matchbook edge, we would've lost something like 15-20 units on those plays. However, using the pinny edge, I think it made like 1-2 units. Kind of sucks, going 10-3, and only making such a small unit amount.Comment -
Results:
1-3-0 -10.75 units
YTD
41-30-0 +3.08 units
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So here's the results with just playing the pinny edge:
L Portland State +10 -165 0.99% -1.65
W Rhode Island -1.5 -165 1.88% +1.88
W Hofstra +9.5 -165 0.59% +1
W Georgia State -1 -155 2.22% +2.22
W Illinois Chicago -2.5 -165 0.09% +1
W Samford +12 -165 1.9% +1.9
W Minnesota +9.5 -165 0.67% +1
W UL Lafayette +8 -165 0.38% +1
W Appalachian St +11.5 -165 1.19% +1.19
W Xavier -2.5 -165 0.09% +1
L Portland +7 -105 1.25% -2.06
L Navy +13 -165 3.98% -6.57
W San Diego +5.5 -165 2.32% +2.32
I rounded the percentages were less than 1% up to 1 unit, because that's how I bet them when I make my own percentages. That would've resulted in a net of +4.32 units today. Not too bad. Could've been worse, but could've been much better. Navy taking out 6.5 units sucked, and the bet only lost by a few points!Comment -
better today and next days. GLComment -
yup yup, should be another good day. I'm still not going to bet the CBB picks; I'm on day #4 of tracking them with how I'm getting the percentages now, and the first 3 days were profitable. If it's still going good on day #7, then I'll start on day #8 betting them. until then, I'm just tracking them. It's looking good so far, though
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Saturday
11/20/2010
Colorado -5.5 -105 5
UC Santa Barbara -10.5 -105 5
Long Beach St. -5.5 -105 5
GLComment -
I've been tracking the plays using Matchy and Pinny...and then taking the average edge of the two...I don't know if that's better or still taking only Pinny's edge but making sure Matchy agrees there is an edge?Comment -
Maybe, but I've been tracking also using matchbook and pinny, but only using the pinny edge to track the percentage. It went 17-7 yesterday, for +10.26 units. It went 10-3 the day before, then 8-3 on Thursday, and 7-4 on Wednesday. Going to track for 3 more days, and if it's still all good, I'm jumping in.
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guys stop thinking and play the games, you are going to win over time and you never know when the peaks and valleys will come and they will. use your money management and the trusty calc and sit back.
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The 3 RAS plays are out:
Montana St -5.5
UC Davis +3.5
TCU +1Comment -
Yea Chili...good points...but I missed a few of my bigger % plays yesterday by .5 point when tracking...so even though I am 16-10 on my tracking, I am down -11 units...Comment -
Yah, but the problem with taking matchbook's percentage edge into consideration is that usually it's so different than pinnacle's edge, and that can throw everything off. Had I been using matchbook's edge, or the average edge between matchbook/pinny, I would've had some losing days from these past 4 days. So, just using the pinny edge percentage (but only listing a game as a play if both matchbook and pinny agree on it), the past 4 days have been profitable.Comment -
Results:
2-1-0 +4.75 units
YTD
43-31-0 +7.83 unitsComment -
Sunday 11/20/2010
Montana St. -6.5 5
UC Davis +3 5
TCU -1.5 5
GLComment -
Sure. I just mean that I run the calculator first using the pinny numbers against bodog's lines. Then I run it a 2nd time using matchbook's numbers and bodog's lines. If the calculator gives me an edge on both pinny and matchbook (on the same side of the game), then I take the edge percentage from pinny, and mark it down as a play.
Aside from the 3 RAS plays today, the CBB plays that I tracked went 18-10, gaining +12.73 units. This is 5 days in a row being profitable ever since doing the tracking with both pinny and matchbook. I think it's safe to say that it's okay to jump in now, heh. I was only being cautious because I got buried last week doing the CBB plays using only pinny. So when another poster here said that he was only doing the plays that both pinny and matchbook agreed upon, I started tracking it the same way, and it's been going really good.
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nice chilli...are u going to post the plays here?Comment -
hey chili that was me, and yeah i've got a lot of great hits on CBB using this method. here's hoping this will keep up for the rest of the seasonSure. I just mean that I run the calculator first using the pinny numbers against bodog's lines. Then I run it a 2nd time using matchbook's numbers and bodog's lines. If the calculator gives me an edge on both pinny and matchbook (on the same side of the game), then I take the edge percentage from pinny, and mark it down as a play.
Aside from the 3 RAS plays today, the CBB plays that I tracked went 18-10, gaining +12.73 units. This is 5 days in a row being profitable ever since doing the tracking with both pinny and matchbook. I think it's safe to say that it's okay to jump in now, heh. I was only being cautious because I got buried last week doing the CBB plays using only pinny. So when another poster here said that he was only doing the plays that both pinny and matchbook agreed upon, I started tracking it the same way, and it's been going really good.
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hey jolm or anyone else i'm thinking of upping my bankroll, but i'd rather do it at a book other than betus (even though they continue to offer weak lines). any recommendations? you said rebatewager sold 3 points for -170 right? i heard elsewhere that bet jamaica cut a guy's ability to buy points off after a winning streak, any confirmation of this? i also heard 5 dimes allows you to buy points, any experience there? i'm looking at making a pretty big deposit so any advice would be helpfulComment -
hey guys, i was thinking about parlays using this method and crunching some numbers. on a typical game with a 1% edge, there is a 35% implied probability that you will lose any particular bet; this means that there is a 65% chance that the outcome will either be good or neutral, and 61.5% that you will win the bet outright. now, let's assume you parlay three games at -170 and wager $50 to win $151.38.
i added up all of the potential losses at a 35% chance to lose-- the probabilities add up to ~.726 so there is a 72.6% chance that you lose your parlay outright, assuming you have this ~1% edge. at $50, we have an expected negative return on our losses of -$36.3
now let's calculate our chance to win: .615 * .615 * .615 = .232 * $151.38 = $35.122 - $36.3 = -$1.18
So at a 1% edge, this is a loser. There's an unaccounted for 4.2%, which is the push probability; since this won't massively affect your parlay i assume it's neutral to the calculations.
now let's look at what happens if we get the extra half point, which is usually what pushes a .5 or 1% edge up to a 2% edge (and this is why there's massive value at getting a line that is a half point better at your book than pinny or matchbook); this will either lower your losing percentage by about 4% or raise your winning percentage by about 4%
in this example from the calculator, the losing probability stayed at 35%, but the probability to win jumped by 3.5% to 65%
so .65 * .65 * .65 = .274 * $151.38 = $41.47 expected winnings
1-.274 = .726 * 50 = $36.30 expected loss; $41.47 - $36.30 = +$5.11
looks like some pretty good value there to parlay our "best bets," the ones with huge edges. what do you guys think? i'm thinking of maybe throwing one unit at it. let's say i have 5 bets that have a huge edge, i don't think it'd hurt to do it. it'd make things a little more exciting i suppose, and relying on parlays which can be very streaky can be dangerous, but if it's a small piece of our bankroll i don't see what it could hurt. thoughts?Comment -
This is cheme's thread; I'd don't want to step on any toes.
Yup, it was a really good idea! Thanks for sharing it.
I've heard the same about bet jamaica cutting the ability to buy 3 points down to buying only 1 point after winning a lot, but I can't confirm it. 5dimes does allow you to buy 3 points, but it will cost you -200. I know of betus.com and sportsbook.com as well. I know that both of those books have bad reputations on this board, so that take for what it's worth. I've personally had accounts at both for about 3 years now, and never any payment issues, but I suppose that anything is possible.
Wow, I never thought of that one, and it is worth a shot. I personally wouldn't lay a large bet down on the parlays, just small bets until I see that they do work. I'll start tracking this one and see how it goes
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yes u r right, that a cheme's thread sorry about that!!Comment -
hey chili, so you havent had any problems with betus? maybe i'll stick with them, but im a little worried since cheme has been saying theyre bankrupt.
i do love their interface and how bad their lines are thoughComment -
also i thought about it some more and choosing 5 bets to parlay would be excessive. that involves 10 combinations of parlays, where 4 bets involves 4 combinations of parlays, and 3 bets is only one parlay, assuming you're going 3-way parlays. it's probably better to stick with your 3 best or 4 best bets anyhow, though if it indeed is profitable i could see wanting to push it. maybe somebody better at math could tell me why i'm wrong, if i amComment
