Taking a Chance: Projected No. 1 seeds
By: Chance Harper | sbrforum.com
Don't look now, but Selection Sunday (Mar 16) is less than four weeks away. Between now and then, college basketball teams will wind down their regular season and head into conference tournaments leading up to the number crunchers coming up with their Field of 65. That makes every game crucial from this point on as schools scramble for respect in the RIP and Sagarin rankings.
Everything looked so simple just four weeks ago. North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas were all undefeated in men’s college basketball; UCLA had one loss and was playing at a superior level. These were the top four teams in the college polls and seemingly destined to lock down No. 1 seeds for March Madness.
Destiny has a funny way of changing her mind. Only Memphis remains untarnished by defeat. North Carolina and UCLA have both had their issues of late. Duke climbed into the Final Four picture, then promptly lost 86-73 Sunday at Wake Forest (+8½). Now bracketologists are pointing to teams like Tennessee (23-2 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) to earn a No. 1 seed.
Ugh. Credit where credit is due: The Volunteers have easily played the best basketball in a watered-down SEC, the worst of the major conferences in terms of efficiency at press time. And given that they rank No. 1 in RPI, the Vols would get that Tournament top seed if the selection committee made its picks today. But it doesn’t, and Tennessee (No. 15 in Pomeroy efficiency) will put its neck on the line this Saturday at Memphis (No. 2).
Given the schedules over the remaining month and the quality of the top programs in question, here are my picks for the four No. 1 March Madness seeds.
South: Memphis Tigers (25-0 SU, 12-11-2 ATS)
The Tigers are a true title contender despite coming out of the weak Conference USA. They smartly fortify both their team and their Tournament profile by playing demanding non-con schedules year in and year out; this season’s list of victims includes Georgetown, Arizona, UConn, Gonzaga and USC. There was a bit of a wobble during Saturday’s 79-78 road win over UAB (+8½), but even if the Tigers run out of luck and somehow lose a C-USA matchup between now and the big dance, a one-loss Memphis team would still earn a top seed.
West: UCLA Bruins (21-3 SU, 14-7-2 ATS)
The Bruins have had some frustrating losses this year, falling to No. 6 in the polls the day after last week’s 71-61 loss at Washington. Injuries to players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have been a problem; still, the Bruins are the No. 4 team in the nation in efficiency, and if they continue to play at that level will run the remaining six games of the season to finish with three losses. The Vols should pick up their third loss in Memphis to cede their claim for a top seed.
East: Duke Blue Devils (22-2 SU, 13-8-2 ATS)
Losing to Wake Forest is no way to make an impression on the selection committee. But before that game, Duke was No. 2 in the polls and No. 3 in team efficiency. Their toughest competition for this spot is North Carolina; Duke (+4½) already beat the Heels 89-78 in Chapel Hill, and the regular season wraps up with the rematch at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the Blue Devils should be favored. Duke is excellent at both ends of the floor, the backcourt is significantly taller than average, and this young team will run you ragged.
Midwest: Kansas Jayhawks (24-2 SU, 14-10 ATS)
The regional seeding for these four projected No. 1 teams is too easy to project, so surely the basketball gods will do something to mess it up, like give Tennessee the top seed in the Midwest and make the Jayhawks play in Phoenix. Forget that. Kansas deserves better after posting the very best efficiency rating in Division I. Losing on the road to both Kansas State and Texas is entirely forgivable. This is a veteran team with everything you could possibly dream about in a title contender. Everything except free-throw shooting, that is: just 70 percent.
By: Chance Harper | sbrforum.com
Don't look now, but Selection Sunday (Mar 16) is less than four weeks away. Between now and then, college basketball teams will wind down their regular season and head into conference tournaments leading up to the number crunchers coming up with their Field of 65. That makes every game crucial from this point on as schools scramble for respect in the RIP and Sagarin rankings.
Everything looked so simple just four weeks ago. North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas were all undefeated in men’s college basketball; UCLA had one loss and was playing at a superior level. These were the top four teams in the college polls and seemingly destined to lock down No. 1 seeds for March Madness.
Destiny has a funny way of changing her mind. Only Memphis remains untarnished by defeat. North Carolina and UCLA have both had their issues of late. Duke climbed into the Final Four picture, then promptly lost 86-73 Sunday at Wake Forest (+8½). Now bracketologists are pointing to teams like Tennessee (23-2 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) to earn a No. 1 seed.
Ugh. Credit where credit is due: The Volunteers have easily played the best basketball in a watered-down SEC, the worst of the major conferences in terms of efficiency at press time. And given that they rank No. 1 in RPI, the Vols would get that Tournament top seed if the selection committee made its picks today. But it doesn’t, and Tennessee (No. 15 in Pomeroy efficiency) will put its neck on the line this Saturday at Memphis (No. 2).
Given the schedules over the remaining month and the quality of the top programs in question, here are my picks for the four No. 1 March Madness seeds.
South: Memphis Tigers (25-0 SU, 12-11-2 ATS)
The Tigers are a true title contender despite coming out of the weak Conference USA. They smartly fortify both their team and their Tournament profile by playing demanding non-con schedules year in and year out; this season’s list of victims includes Georgetown, Arizona, UConn, Gonzaga and USC. There was a bit of a wobble during Saturday’s 79-78 road win over UAB (+8½), but even if the Tigers run out of luck and somehow lose a C-USA matchup between now and the big dance, a one-loss Memphis team would still earn a top seed.
West: UCLA Bruins (21-3 SU, 14-7-2 ATS)
The Bruins have had some frustrating losses this year, falling to No. 6 in the polls the day after last week’s 71-61 loss at Washington. Injuries to players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have been a problem; still, the Bruins are the No. 4 team in the nation in efficiency, and if they continue to play at that level will run the remaining six games of the season to finish with three losses. The Vols should pick up their third loss in Memphis to cede their claim for a top seed.
East: Duke Blue Devils (22-2 SU, 13-8-2 ATS)
Losing to Wake Forest is no way to make an impression on the selection committee. But before that game, Duke was No. 2 in the polls and No. 3 in team efficiency. Their toughest competition for this spot is North Carolina; Duke (+4½) already beat the Heels 89-78 in Chapel Hill, and the regular season wraps up with the rematch at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the Blue Devils should be favored. Duke is excellent at both ends of the floor, the backcourt is significantly taller than average, and this young team will run you ragged.
Midwest: Kansas Jayhawks (24-2 SU, 14-10 ATS)
The regional seeding for these four projected No. 1 teams is too easy to project, so surely the basketball gods will do something to mess it up, like give Tennessee the top seed in the Midwest and make the Jayhawks play in Phoenix. Forget that. Kansas deserves better after posting the very best efficiency rating in Division I. Losing on the road to both Kansas State and Texas is entirely forgivable. This is a veteran team with everything you could possibly dream about in a title contender. Everything except free-throw shooting, that is: just 70 percent.