Ucla/usc -4.5

[FADEME]

Gonna take UCLA, i know they lost at home to them and its a rivalry game so to cover these points on the road might be tough. Guessing most people will stay away from this one.

Although I can't see UCLA being swept by SC; SC is playing without Hackett and I know he doesnt put up huge numbers I think he does a lot of the intangibles that dont show up on the boxscore. Mayo will probably have to carry the extra burden. I think he will have a good game but will that be enough. I kinda look at it the same with UofAs Bayless going off without Wise in there. As long as UCLA can contain the inside game I think UCLA will cover the points.

[dodif]

good eye

[composite]

Newbie here. Here's my thoughts on this game.

1. Focus. UCLA lost by 10 @ Washington last Sunday. This is their first game since then. A few more losses and they can forget about the #1 seed. It's also a rivalry/revenge game. A billion reasons why UCLA should be at least focused for this game.

2. Concussion. During the last game, UCLA had 2 big men - Mata-Real and Mbah a Moute out w/ concussions (one sustained during that game). It hurt the Bruin defense which gave up 60% shooting to the Trojans. Both are healthy now.

3. Depth. B/c of injuries Trojans have 7 scholie players. Floyd's been talking in the local radio shows that this'll be very tough game b/c Hackett's out and on Thursday Mayo had a strained groin (altho he's supposed to be better now).

4. Underpreparation. In some ways the Bruins looked past the Trojans the first meeting. Josh Shipp gave the Trojans bulletin board material claiming that the Bruins were a "team" while the Trojans were more interested in "individual" honors (i.e., just letting Mayo score). They got burned when the other freshman, Davon Jefferson, put up 25 points. They won't make this mistake again.

5. Defense. UCLA really gave up a very uncharacteristic 60% shooting to the Trojans. USC struggles with better defensive teams such as Wazzu losing twice by double digits. UCLA - when focused - is a better defensive team than Wazzu. I'm not saying they looked past the Trojans during their first meeting. But I do think they misjudged their lack of depth.

6. Road v. Home records. USC doesn't play that much better @ home. They lost to Wazzu, Stanford and Arizona at home - the better Pac-10 teams and IIRC none of them were very close. UCLA doesn't play that poorly on the road. Both losses this year were at home. This isn't even a "road" game anyway. USC is 10 miles away from Westwood. It's more like a "hostile environment" game.

Obviously, USC's still a very good team. Mayo is exceptional. Taj Gibson is probably more athletic (tho more foul prone) than Kevin Love. Also, as an aside, just like the Georgia Bulldogs in football, Tim Floyd has asked fans to wear black for the game - the team will be wearing black jerseys for the first time (Trojans normally wear gold jerseys @ home games). Heck, who knows, maybe it'll fire up the home team and crowd even more. Heck, it worked for the Bulldogs twice last year.

But I doubt it. IMO, UCLA's the best team in the country.

FWIW, I'm laying 5% on UCLA -4.5.

BTW, may I ask the regulars here a question. Other than yourself :-) , which of the regulars consistently win their 5% and higher bets whether in CBB, NBA, NFL or CFB?

[twtb19]

Anyone else love how Davon Jefferson is a Freshmen. He was a senior in highschool 3 years ago and this would have been his junior year if he wasn't a retard. He was teammates with Sek Henry from Nebraska who is a Sophmore and should also be a junior because neither could get into college. I wish they would put a big fat asterick by the freshman part since he is older and his body is more mature for major college bball.

[Ship It!]

Great first post, Composite. Welcome to the board. You make a compelling case for the Bruins. Sounds like you are a West Coast guy and in tune with the latest story lines in the Pac 10...

GL today.

[composite]

Great first post, Composite. Welcome to the board. You make a compelling case for the Bruins. Sounds like you are a West Coast guy and in tune with the latest story lines in the Pac 10...

GL today.

Thanks for the welcome. I've been looking for a well-populated sports betting forum. I try focusing on one conference in CBB and being in L.A. the Pac-10 makes sense. But I love CBB, NBA, and also CFB and NFL.

Sports betting's a hobby for me, but I'm trying to see if I can win consistently. That probably sounds like a stupid comment - who wants to lose. But I'm trying to stay away from bets just to have action and have everything be a "5-star" bet.

I used to bet all the time in college and grad school - but looking back I realized I made lots of sucker plays. Especially road favorites in college basketball. For instance, 10 years ago I would've jumped all over #7 G'town -1.5 @ Syracuse, and then shaked my head wondering how the hell they lost. So, I'm trying to bet more intelligently these days.