fading the sharps

[stingyrivers]

crazy strategy but i wanna track it.....

the idea is that a lot of people on these sites overthink these picks a bit, based on 'sharp' analysis of stuff like.... the public is all over a team.... this team really wants to win this one for some reason (ie. player turned school down)..... this is a vegas trap line (i firmly believe there is no such thing as a trap line... vegas makes its money garunteed in the longterm and they really, in general dont care who you take)

I havent kept track, but in loose observation of this trend in recent past i know the games that we tend to overthink have lost way more than they won...

tonights pick's with the arguments ive read- fading the sharp analysis:


Pitt -2.5 (the public is all over them)

Ind -2 (Illinois wants to beat Gordon)

let's see how this does, just for fun

[diogee]

I am already on Ind for a decent amount and WV for a much smaller amount.

[Ship It!]

i am playing indiana, hoping to captialize on the gordon angle, combined with the fact that i think they are the far superior team. feel good that i am getting a "discounted" line due to recent poor performance by IU at wis

[diogee]

The IU line reflects their poor play as of late for sure...I'm thinking that they will win this one by at least 8. Good luck

[stingyrivers]

solid pick....

that's exactly what i am talking about man.... these type of 'sharp' analysis that spreads around these forums often gets people betting on weaker teams, when they could have the superior team with the discounted line (in the long run the much smarter play)

I have seen it all season and usually it has backfired on people who out think these games and dont just take a good thing for what it is worth....

If this trend is consistent with what i have seen this year.... Pitt and Indiana win by a healthy margin tonight and then tomorrow the forums will be full of whiny posts about how West Virginia and Illinois didnt "show up", when the reality is they are just overmatched against better teams

[diogee]

I here ya stingy...most of the time I go pretty big on a pick that I think is very solid even if the line seems too good to be true. I like the idea of tracking this...more often then not it seems that when I take these "solid plays" they are winners but I have never tracked it.

[Ship It!]

Couldn't agree more. Would love to hear the consensus of the board on this game. Will prob be split

May start a thread

GL to both of you

[hwangSGD]

wouldnt ucla fall under the "trap" game category, making it a play