Discussion: a formula I am using to pick games is very high % for 1st Half...why?

[curious]

Hello Everyone,
I am using offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and the Pomeroy Ratings pythagorean winning % to pick winners in college baskets.

Picking the game has been doing fairly well. But, I just went back and checked all of the picks for the past 5 days if they had been bet on the first half. I don't even want to post what the results would have been because the win % is so lopsided people are going to think I made it up. Over 70%.

I am trying to figure out why this would be the case.

Any ideas?

I'm thinking about forgetting about betting on the game and betting on the first half instead in the future.

Curious

[hi-rez]

Second half can throw things off when teams have a lead and relax, and with foul&throw. The first half lines are always a little more in the favor of the dog, so that might have something to do with it if you usually go with the underdogs. Those are my crackpot theories

[MoneySportsGuy]

Sounds interesting but what is your offensive and defensive efficiency? Also sounds dumb by me, but what is the Pomeroy Ratings phthagorean winning %?

[MoneySportsGuy]

Isn't it easier though to bet on 2nd half because you know what each team is expected before tip off, then you can see how close or how far off they are to those expectations?

[Checkerboard]

If betting a fav first half, you don't have to woory about backdoor covers - that's one thing in favour of a frist half bet over a full game wager on the fav.

[Checkerboard]

Sounds interesting but what is your offensive and defensive efficiency? Also sounds dumb by me, but what is the Pomeroy Ratings phthagorean winning %?

http://kenpom.com/stats.php

[Checkerboard]

were you using raw or adjusted curious?

[curious]

Second half can throw things off when teams have a lead and relax, and with foul&throw. The first half lines are always a little more in the favor of the dog, so that might have something to do with it if you usually go with the underdogs. Those are my crackpot theories

The formula I use gives two kinds of picks. Teams that should have been favs (according to the line) but are medium to large size dogs instead. These are no brainers. And, teams that should have been a huge fav but are a small fav instead. For example, one game that just jumped off the screen was Tenn Martin. I figured they should have been a 5 point fav but instead they were a 4 point dog. I also had USC, I figured they should have been somewhere around -20, instead they were -8. Oh, I almost forgot about Lafayette, I figured they should be a 4 point fav, instead they were a 12 point dog.

The interesting thing is I took the prediction for each game, the prediction just says what the line should be, then I compare the prediction to what the line actually is and pick a "winner".

Here is my prediction sheet for tonight and the win/loss for first half, betting the 1st half would have yielded 18-8-1. There are a few early games missing because I got home from work late. The numbers mean:
formula factor, actual spread, what I think the spread should have been, difference between what I thought the spread should be and what it actually was:

Utah St 0.69 -10 1/2 -32 21 1/2 Win
Louisiana Tech 0.05

Fl International 0.25 5 1/2 2 3 Win
Arkansas St 0.26

Dayton 0.89 11 3 1/2 7 1/2 Lost
Xavier 0.96

Cleveland St 0.73 2 1/2 -7 9 1/2 Win
Green Bay 0.59

youngstown 0.31
milwaukee 0.51 -8 1/2 -10 1 1/2 Win

Ill Chicago 0.56 7 1/2 6 1/2 1 Win
Valparaiso 0.69

UL Lafayette 0.44 12 -4 1/2 16 1/2 Win
S Alabama 0.35

USC 0.93 -8 -23 1/2 15 1/2 Loss
Oregon St 0.46

MTSU 0.31
UL Monroe 0.38 -3 1/2 -3 1/2 0 Win

Ark LR 0.43 2 -2 1/2 4 1/2 Win
Troy 0.38

Wash St 0.98 2 -2 4 Loss
Arizona 0.94

Hawaii 0.47 10 1/2 8 1/2 2 Loss
Boise st 0.64

nevada 0.67 5 1/2 2 3 1/2 Win
nm state 0.71

mich st 0.95 -10 -21 11 Win
nw 0.53

san jose st 0.35 PK -9 1/2 9 1/2 Loss
idaho 0.16

pacific 0.53
cal sb 0.73 -7 -10 3 Win

uc davis 0.17 10 1/2 1 1/2 9 Win
cal poly 0.20

ucla 1 -3 1/2 -4 1/2 1 Win
oregon 0.89

wofford 0.24
ga southern 0.58 -10 -17 7 Win

marist 0.57 pk
iowa 0.61 pk -2 2 Push?

austin peay 0.41 -9 -18 9 Loss
jax st 0.05

tenn tech 0.24
murray st 0.35 -5 1/2 -5 1/2 0 Win

tenn martin 0.2 4 -5 9 Win
samford 0.1

morehead st 0.17
semo 0.12 3 2 1/2 1/2 Loss

e ky 0.16
tenn st 0.29 -6 1/2 -6 1/2 0 Loss

e washington 0.29 9 1/2 2 1/2 7 Win
montana 0.34

montana st 0.49 1 1/2 -9 1/2 11 Win
northern colorado 0.3

[curious]

were you using raw or adjusted curious?

adjusted

[curious]

Isn't it easier though to bet on 2nd half because you know what each team is expected before tip off, then you can see how close or how far off they are to those expectations?

You will go broke really fast doing that. The 2nd half line is usually a contra indicator.

The only consistent correlation I can find between first half outcome and betting on the second half is this:
1. For a dog, if the second half line equals or exceeds the game line BET THE ****ING HOUSE. Ex. Two weeks ago I had Toronto (NBA) for the game +8, the second half line was +9, I figured "if I liked them at +8, I dang sure like them at +18). 2nd half won, so did game.

2. For a favorite, if the 2nd half line is +, it is an automatic bet. If the 2nd half line is a - then it is a play if the 2nd half line is game line / 4 or less (less meaning toward the zero). For example, I had Kent State -6 for the game, 2nd half line was Kent State -1. Both bets won.

[diogee]

I assume that those all those numbers with the decimal points is an efficiency rating of some sort...either way the W-L stats are very staggering.

[curious]

Sounds interesting but what is your offensive and defensive efficiency? Also sounds dumb by me, but what is the Pomeroy Ratings phthagorean winning %?

Someone much smarter than me took the number of points scored per possession and the number of points given up per opponents possession and created a formula for predicting what the team's win loss record should be. I use the formula to determine the odds of a given team winning a given game today or tomorrow.

http://kenpom.com/stats.php

[freeVICK]

im very interested curious. can you make your own thread everyday with your 1h plays? i will def follow

[curious]

I assume that those all those numbers with the decimal points is an efficiency rating of some sort...either way the W-L stats are very staggering.

The decimal number is taken from the ranking on this site http://kenpom.com/stats.php. I modify it a bit but I have found the mods don't affect it much. I have tried lots of different things, number of days rest, number of miles travelling to get to the game, home vs away...none of this seems to matter much.

[curious]

im very interested curious. can you make your own thread everyday with your 1h plays? i will def follow

As soon as I can figure out how to past a table in here so that it won't get all jumbled up I will post the predictions for the "winning" team.

The really staggering thing is I did this back testing for 2 weeks and the win ratio was always so lopsided as to be comical.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Someone much smarter than me took the number of points scored per possession and the number of points given up per opponents possession and created a formula for predicting what the team's win loss record should be. I use the formula to determine the odds of a given team winning a given game today or tomorrow.

http://kenpom.com/stats.php

alright I got that link but how do you use it? can you explain it to me in a PM or something? Also I see what your saying about the +, - for a spread but that in itself is something I don't get that wish somebody could explain to me. I mean like if a team is at +4 for the start, then the 2nd half they are +2, does that mean then they are given 6 points at the end of the game? or does that just mean like if the box score for 2nd half is
+2 team 34
-2 team 31

then that means your +2 team wins because they scored at least 2 more then the other? sorry sounds sad I just dont get it