ML Parlay Discussion Thread for Tuesday Jan 14th. Please chime in

[imgv94]

Notre Dame should be a safe ML Parlay selection

Cincy 4-21 on road last 3 years
ND 40-5 @ Home last 3 years

ND shoots the ball too well @ home 48.4%


Michigan St should be a safe ML selection as well.
44-3 @ Home last 3 years

OSU has beaten MSU three in a row so you know MSU will be motivated.




Feel free to post some of your thoughts on these or any other games.

[durito]

Greek just came out with these at:

-800 and -330

[imgv94]

Thats about -215

Need one more cinch ML to complete this.

[durito]

How about Missouri St -420.

They are 52-19 at home in conference games the last 8 years.

[imgv94]

I hate that conference bro..

[imgv94]

Think we have to take Michigan St out of this parlay.. Ohio St could win this game..

Missouri St might be the play.

[rjt721]

Michigan State's not losing tomorrow (they will also cover the 7/7.5).

Missouri State's one of the three most talented teams in the Valley this season, while ISU's overachieved to this point. As durito mentioned, MSU always has a strong home court edge, and the MVC is one of the most difficult conferences to win on the road. I think Missouri State drills them.

I don't play ML parlays, but there's not much point in adding ND at -800. How about this:

Michigan State -330
Missouri State -420
Baylor -230

Pays +131.

Baylor, naturally, is the one with the greatest chance of losing, but OSU's down considerably this season, while Baylor remains undervalued for a team with its considerable perimeter talent.

[imgv94]

Michigan State's not losing tomorrow (they will also cover the 7/7.5).

Missouri State's one of the three most talented teams in the Valley this season, while ISU's overachieved to this point. As durito mentioned, MSU always has a strong home court edge, and the MVC is one of the most difficult conferences to win on the road. I think Missouri State drills them.

I don't play ML parlays, but there's not much point in adding ND at -800. How about this:

Michigan State -330
Missouri State -420
Baylor -230

Pays +131.

Baylor, naturally, is the one with the greatest chance of losing, but OSU's down considerably this season, while Baylor remains undervalued for a team with its considerable perimeter talent.

Not true my friend. -800s are great for ML Parlays IMO.

I'd be floored if ND lost @ Home wouldn't you.

[rjt721]

Sure, I'd be mildly surprised if they lost, but their advantage over Cincy (a rapidly improving, well-coached team) is indicated by the -800 line, which I feel is a bit high, even though ND should obviously win the game.

Michigan State -320/Missouri State -420 (pays -163) seems like a better value to me than Mich. State -320/ND -800 (-215).

[WestsidePete]

Thats about -215

Need one more cinch ML to complete this.

how about Phoenix at the Clippers ML??

[imgv94]

If you're looking for a ML lock in NBA I'd go with Detroit.

[stingyrivers]

hey guys,

first post for me here, been reading the forum for a while.... I have been working with this ML Parlay strategy for a bit now and think it is a key to get ahead despite the typical criticism of parlays being a fool's bet.... my strategy is to come up with an even money payout big favorite money line parlay each night and use a paroli system to build profits from it.....
to try to solve the debate about ND at -800.... if you use Mich St./Missouri St. and use ND ML for 1st Half it works out to +101, and i think is still as solid as you see the three teams chances of winning their leg of the parlay.... what do you think?

[stingyrivers]

other ones i had already loosely put together for tuesday are:

ND
CLemson
Pistons
Rockets
Maryland

at +121


Mich St
Missouri St
Mississippi St

at -103


Wisconsin
New Mexico

at +111

Nebraska
Detroit redwings

at +111


any comments or critique would be greatly appreciated

[imgv94]

I think the ML Parlay strategy of trying to get the odds close to EV -110 isn't necessarily the way to go.

If you have something really solid why not take odds of -175 or -200. We try to force things when we add (not so easy)teams to get to that EV or -110 plateau.

I'd like for some of you guys to just try some 2 team -160 parlays or even -200 parlays. Paperbet them and see how it works for ya. It might be better than you think.

[astro61200]

As for adding -800 ND, I really dont see why you wouldnt put it in there, I dont see Notre Dame losing

Personally I like to take 1 side, -110, and parlay it with a large ML favorite that I cant see losing, Notre Dame at -800 as an example

You turn a -110 into a +114

Good luck tho, I dont see Missouri State or Baylor losing at home to inferior teams

[stingyrivers]

the forcing a third or fourth leg in there to get even money is a very good point

imgv, what do you think of the two teamers above?

[imgv94]

Baylor looks solid as well. Oklahoma state has been putrid on the road for years and this season doesn't seem much different.

I agree with Astro, ND is one ML selection I wouldn't take off.

[stingyrivers]

missouri st and baylor would be around -130

[stingyrivers]

missouri st/baylor/ND is -105

[imgv94]

the forcing a third or fourth leg in there to get even money is a very good point

imgv, what do you think of the two teamers above?

I'm not taking Michigan State because Ohio State has the talent to win this game and I'm actually taking the points in that one.

I'm still undecided on how I'm going to bet a ML Parlay.

Here's where my mindset is right now:

ND: 100% chance it will be in
Missouri state: 100% chance

Still thinking about:
Mississippi St
Clemson


If I add both teams and play a 4 team ML parlay odds will be close to Even. -106

If I take Miss St out parlay will be -175 (kind of high for three teams, perfectly find for two teams)

If I take Clemson out parlay be -142

5 Dimes/Justbet and bookmaker will have they're ML lines tomorrow and I'll decide then what to do.

It's really a fun strategy devising these ML Parlays IMO.

[imgv94]

missouri st/baylor/ND is -105

What books do you have?

[stingyrivers]

im at the greek.... i agree about the ml parlays and i think it is really smart play

[stingyrivers]

i got missouri state at -420
ND at -800

and baylor i guessed -250 rather than looking it up

[imgv94]

So you only have the Greek?

Hopefully you stick around man cause this is still a work in progress but I'm pretty excited about it. I'm going to start a ML Parlay thread daily where everyone can discuss what MLs they think are very likely to win.

[stingyrivers]

huh just looked it up... its -230 so that makes

baylor, missouri st and ND ML parlay at even money

[stingyrivers]

I am totally into it man and will be here, these are the only plays I have been making for weeks... good idea to make a thread for it

[imgv94]

ND/Missouri St/Baylor is at +100 right now.. I think I'm definitely going to put something on that.

[imgv94]

huh just looked it up... its -230 so that makes

baylor, missouri st and ND ML parlay at even money

We posted the same parlay.. We are seeing eye to eye here..

[stingyrivers]

yeah only at the greek unfortunately and also working with a very small bankroll so it is an uphill climb.... that kinda is what got me thinking about big chalk in parlays

[stingyrivers]

lol yup i guess great minds think alike hopefully on this play

[imgv94]

yeah only at the greek unfortunately and also working with a very small bankroll so it is an uphill climb.... that kinda is what got me thinking about big chalk in parlays

Understandable for sure. What I would recommend is betting them small at first.


FWIW about the big chalk I risked 7.2 units the other day to win 4 on USC ML/New England ML -180. There is a poster on another forum that has fared extremely well betting big chalk ML Parlays. I believe he is doing well because he isn't forcing teams into this parlay. Something to consider.

I had another parlay where the juice was -215..

[stingyrivers]

yup i definitely think if managed well it can be very profitable... post some more for tonite if you come up with any.... i will do the same

[WestsidePete]

img, Missouri St ML definitely....I'm adding them, here's a write up

Game: Indiana State at Missouri State (8:00 PM Eastern)

Gabriel Moore, Mick Yelovich and Todd McCoy are all Indiana State seniors. They have come to Missouri State three times and lost by 20, 19 and 24 points. They are not alone. Indiana State has not won here in an eternity, having dropped the last ten games by 15 ppg! It has been a problem for this class of Sycamores playing on the road, as they have logged a 3-26 SU mark in MVC road play. They have lost 18 games by double-digits! It has been a problem for Indiana State for a long time as they have logged just 12 wins in their last 85 road ventures. This Bears class has enjoyed a 22-8 mark at home in MVC play and 44-10 overall. And, both of their home conference wins this season have come by double-digits. There is too much distance between these teams which are night and day, home vs. away, and without Larry Bird on the floor for the Sycamores, Missouri State should roll.

[WestsidePete]

ND/Missouri St/Baylor is at +100 right now.. I think I'm definitely going to put something on that.

I like this as well...for a small play, and Missouri St/ND for larger....GL

[GODFATHER]

What about using Miss St as a money line anchor??