The spread will probably jump upto 4 maybe 5. Drake is off to one of its best starts in a season. Most recently (dec 5) drake played Iowa St and defeated them 79-44. THis was quite a blowout considering last season's matchup was much closer. Drake is a better team this season than last. Drake defeated Iowa 75-59 in Dec 2006. Unfortunately for Iowa, this year's squad is worst than last year's squad thanks to some nagging injuries to guards Freeman and Peterson. Both are expected to play Friday against Drake. Iowa St defeated Iowa this year 56-47. ON paper this looks like a very solid pick. I saw Iowa play Wake Forest at home. This was one of more ugly games of the season in college basketball that I saw. Wake Forest won this game 56-47. Both teams were pathetic. Drake is a much better team than Wake Forest and should roll in this game. I am just concerned with the spread because I thought it would be Drake -5. Seems like oddsmakers want to give this one away. I can see that there are a lot backers for Drake in this game. Good luck and lets cash in tommorrow. Does anyone else have any insight on this game.
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Im definately with you on this one..I was looking for an opening line yesterday and figured Drake would be favored up to -6... When I saw -2.5 at Betcris it was a lttle shocking.. I have watched this Iowa team twice this year and though they have future talent with the newcomer guards you talk about, they play sloppy and unorganized. They will definately fill out one of the bottom of the Big Ten.
Looks like the biggest stat to loook at here is points scored as Drake is scoring regularly with a high 70's average vs. Iowas high 50's. (This being against very similar competition)
I will probably go big up to -3/-3.5 and give one unit up to -5. GL all.
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Still 2.5 at Bookmaker. At least a two unit play for me. This Iowa team is offensively challenged to say the least. Drake is a bit under the radar and stuck with a pretty good St.Mary's team on the road. So long as they can be patient and not get frustrated with Iowa's grind it out style at times, I think Drake wins this one by 7 or so.Comment -
I think the history of this in-state rivalry is a big part of what is keeping the spread small. The four-team unofficial Iowa tournament (Iowa, Iowa State, Drake, Northern Iowa) is always hard fought. Drake and Iowa have been playing each other since 1909. Drake has not won at Iowa since 1967.
I like Drake's coach: Keno Davis (gotta love a guy named "Keno"). He's the son of their previous coach. I look for Keno Davis to become very well-known before he's done.
He's getting a lot out of this undersized team (starters: 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-5, 6-8).
- Drake is outrebounding opponents 39.3 to 30 (little guys who hustle, and who know how to be in the right place at the right time, can rebound).
- Drake is averaging 11 steals and forcing 21 turnovers per game.
- Drake is outscoring opponents 80 to 58.
- Drake is getting 10 3-point baskets per game.
- Drake is holding opponents to 38% shooting.
Drake's strength of schedule is pretty lame (200th), but Iowa's is even lower (275th), and Iowa's numbers do not stand up to Drake's.
RPI: Drake, 70; Iowa, 247.
I have to take Drake, and bet that the Bulldogs will go to 8-1 SU, 6-0 ATS, and end their 40-year losing streak in Iowa City.
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Line is -2 now at Bookmaker.Comment -
I just think this line flat out wreaks! I am now seeing a bunch of -2 out there! Pass for me.Comment -
Even assuming Iowa's guards are close to 100%, do you think Iowa can win this, LT? I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts, if you get a chance. I have appreciated your picks.Comment -
On paper, Drake should win by 10+. However, the betting pattern and the 40-year losing streak has me worried. Also, I am not sure Drake has done enough quite yet to be a road favorite vs. a Big Ten school. And then there is the natural rivalry between these two.
Bottom line: Drake appears to have the talent edge, but Iowa may have the edge in some of the intangibles mentioned. I will just wait until tommorow as far as the side goes.
P.S., I did bet the Under at 123 last night, but I saw some 119.5 out there a little while ago. I would want at least 120 if I didn't have it already.Comment -
Thanks, LT.
By the way, since I have been posting quite a lot on this forum, I thought it only fair that I get my act together and post my record. It will appear in my signature now (assuming I set it up right). I'll update it when I get a chance. My plays are posted in Illusion's Best Bet threads. I had a bad November -- I always get too excited about the first few weeks of basketball season -- but I am patiently working my way back. I'm not posting my record to brag about it (obviously), but for the readers' protection.Comment -
I'm on Drake -2 tonight tab . . . gl everybody!
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Shit. I'm waiting to place my bet on this one. Closer to a pick em, the better. I think this is a case of the Big 10 getting WAY too much respect. I know the Iowa State games were on different floors, but Drake kills them by 35 at home and Iowa loses by 9 at ISU? I'm not over thinking this one.Comment -
Careful, EP. It looks like the line might be moving the other way now.
See:
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This line right now feels like free money to me. I just don't know how this line can be this close. Obviously if Iowa covers the books are going to be cashing in huge. I'm figuring the line will be around 4 1/2 so I'm going to take it at -3 right now.Comment -
Just look at the difference in offensive and defensive efficiency of both teams. Iowa is at the bottom whereas Drake is at the top. This will be a rout for Drake in my opinion. Home field alone will not help Iowa.
2008 scouting report for Iowa
2004 2005 2006 2007
Schedule Game Plan
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Note: Team stats include games against Division I competition only
Team stats through games of Thursday, December 13
Record vs. D-1: 6-5
Luck: -0.045 National Rank=234 (-0.5 wins)
Raw Tempo: 60.8 poss/40 min National Rank=327
Adj Tempo: 61.5 poss/40 min National Rank=329
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 96.1 (224) 91.6 ( 61)
Adj Efficiency : 91.9 (266) 97.3 (122)
Effective FG% : 50.7 (146) 44.2 ( 42)
Turnover Pct. : 28.1 (331) 20.5 (243)
Off. Rebound% : 35.1 (124) 28.4 ( 36)
Free Throw Rate: 22.6 (202) 36.5 (177)
3-Point FG% : 36.1 (129) 32.1 ( 90)
2-Point FG% : 48.4 (160) 41.8 ( 32)
Free Throw Pct.: 64.3 (261) 62.7 ( 40)
Block Pct. : 7.9 (116) 10.2 (109)
Steal Pct. : 14.0 (331) 8.1 (285)
3PA/FGA : 39.0 ( 69) 37.9 (268)
A/FGM : 60.2 ( 71) 61.4 (287)
2008 scouting report for Drake
2004 2005 2006 2007
Schedule Game Plan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Team stats include games against Division I competition only
Team stats through games of Thursday, December 13
Record vs. D-1: 6-1
Luck: -0.049 National Rank=247 (-0.3 wins)
Raw Tempo: 67.9 poss/40 min National Rank=194
Adj Tempo: 65.3 poss/40 min National Rank=268
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 117.4 ( 12) 84.7 ( 11)
Adj Efficiency : 115.1 ( 24) 86.3 ( 24)
Effective FG% : 53.0 ( 84) 46.3 ( 82)
Turnover Pct. : 19.3 ( 50) 30.1 ( 5)
Off. Rebound% : 43.1 ( 8) 32.5 (143)
Free Throw Rate: 21.4 (241) 29.2 ( 68)
3-Point FG% : 38.9 ( 62) 33.3 (128)
2-Point FG% : 49.0 (143) 44.0 ( 69)
Free Throw Pct.: 74.4 ( 45) 71.2 (254)
Block Pct. : 14.9 (328) 9.2 (149)
Steal Pct. : 10.5 (205) 16.0 ( 4)
3PA/FGA : 42.6 ( 29) 38.8 (280)
A/FGM : 57.7 (115) 55.6 (186)Comment -
I think this is one of those games where people are going to say "this must be a trap, I'll take Iowa," and end up wishing they hadn't.
Drake is the better team.
Drake is the hotter team.
Drake has a better coach.
I don't know if the Iowa faithful will be around to make this a hostile environment, because, if I'm not mistaken, the students are on breakComment -
Was assuming this line would be double digits! Maybe there is something we don't know...
either way i am on Drake -3. Best of Luck.Comment -
your right 2-pac but very easily can be said " I knew I shouldn't have taken Drake, the line looked too good"
but i have my money on Drake, lets hope people say it your way!Comment -
Iowa has 11 fouls in the first half, to Drake's 2.
Drake has played 10 guys deep, and Iowa just 7.
Drake up 11Comment -
wow this game turned around in a hurry... horrible play by Drake this 2nd halfComment -
Horrible might be the understatement of the year. Still got a chance, but damn they were up 8 at the half.Comment -
well cash this sucker have faith!Comment -
their settling for way too many threes. when your shooting right around 20 % from the arc you can't keep throwing them up.Comment -
hang on to your nuts boys its gonna be close!Comment -
as soon as I post they make 2 of them... yea it'll be close, probably like a lot of games and Drake will win by 1 or 2Comment -
I'm with you!Comment -
lets go Drakey baby winning by five and 56 secs left!Comment -
ding dong almost there boys and girlsComment -
4 points.... better hit their free throwsComment -
can't hit a free thrown...c'monComment -
drake wins 56-51
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was there ever a doubt
drake 56 to 51
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alright good, man oh man.
Drake got outplayed and still managed to win. The only thing that kept them in the game was Iowa's fouls. Iowa had no attempted Ft, thats suprising.Comment
