In my writeup on Santa Clara on Thursday, I mentioned that Montana is an OK team. On Friday, I'll put a bet on them.
Montana is poised to win the Big Sky Conference championship this year and return to the NCAA tournament, where they upset Nevada in the first round in 2006. Montana returns four starters from the pretty good team they had last season. They have three players who score in double figures: 6-9 junior Jordan Hasquet (13.7), 6-2 senior Matt Martin (12.8), and 6-1 sophomore Cameron Rundles (10.5). They are strong inside, with all-conference players Hasquet and Andrew Strait, easily the best inside combo in the Big Sky. Also, Rundles is a good point guard. With a year of experience under his belt, he should prove to be a bright spot at point, and should be a factor for them this season. He was the only Montana player named to the all-tournament team in Spokane last weekend.
Montana has a 5-2 record after wins over Air Force (59-57) and Mississippi Valley State (69-62) at a tournament in Spokane over the weekend. They blew out Colorado State in their opener. Their only two losses are to very good, and ranked, Washington State and Gonzaga teams. In the Washington State game, they were only down by 2 at the half, and they were competitive well into the second half.
Wayne Tinkle is Montana's coach. It's his second year. He's 22-17. If you're gonna go through life with the name "Tinkle," you gotta be tough.
This is a very solid team, playing at home on Friday night on plenty of rest.
Cal State Fullerton is going to Missoula after being crushed at Arizona (65-91) just two days ago. With that loss they are 3-1, with wins over CS Bakersfield, CS LA, and Southern Utah. CS Fullerton is not a bad team -- they will likely finish in the top half of the Big West Conference, but I feel they are in a bad spot tonight. This is a tough road trip for them, playing teams better than them with only a day of rest in between. Also, they are without a key player: senior forward Scott Cutley (ankle injury). They’ll seriously miss Cutley at Montana.
Montana has an edge in most statistical categories -- especially on the defense side. Montana is a very good rebounding team, outrebounding everyone they’ve played except the Zags. It's especially notable that Montana got one more rebound than Washington State in that loss. CS Fullerton is going to get few second chance shots, and at the other end Montana is going to make a living on put-backs.
CS Fullerton does have a better team shooting percentage from 3-point range than Montana (41.4% to 38%), but I’m not too bothered by that, for two reasons: Montana does a pretty good job defending against the 3-point shot (holding opponents to 31%), and, on offense, Montana does not really rely on the 3 pointer (however, the two Montana guards who should be shooting 3's do shoot over 40% from beyond the arc).
I'm not a big trend guy, but I think there is one that is worth mentioning: CS Fullerton is 1-14 ATS over the last three years against teams with winning records. They will be 1-15 after this one.
I don’t see the Titans staying with the Grizzlies. Montana -8.
(By the way, I actually got this bet at -7.5. When I wrote this, I thought it was going to be -8. You may want to bet it early. It is getting bet about 83% on Montana. This line might move.)
Montana is poised to win the Big Sky Conference championship this year and return to the NCAA tournament, where they upset Nevada in the first round in 2006. Montana returns four starters from the pretty good team they had last season. They have three players who score in double figures: 6-9 junior Jordan Hasquet (13.7), 6-2 senior Matt Martin (12.8), and 6-1 sophomore Cameron Rundles (10.5). They are strong inside, with all-conference players Hasquet and Andrew Strait, easily the best inside combo in the Big Sky. Also, Rundles is a good point guard. With a year of experience under his belt, he should prove to be a bright spot at point, and should be a factor for them this season. He was the only Montana player named to the all-tournament team in Spokane last weekend.
Montana has a 5-2 record after wins over Air Force (59-57) and Mississippi Valley State (69-62) at a tournament in Spokane over the weekend. They blew out Colorado State in their opener. Their only two losses are to very good, and ranked, Washington State and Gonzaga teams. In the Washington State game, they were only down by 2 at the half, and they were competitive well into the second half.
Wayne Tinkle is Montana's coach. It's his second year. He's 22-17. If you're gonna go through life with the name "Tinkle," you gotta be tough.
This is a very solid team, playing at home on Friday night on plenty of rest.
Cal State Fullerton is going to Missoula after being crushed at Arizona (65-91) just two days ago. With that loss they are 3-1, with wins over CS Bakersfield, CS LA, and Southern Utah. CS Fullerton is not a bad team -- they will likely finish in the top half of the Big West Conference, but I feel they are in a bad spot tonight. This is a tough road trip for them, playing teams better than them with only a day of rest in between. Also, they are without a key player: senior forward Scott Cutley (ankle injury). They’ll seriously miss Cutley at Montana.
Montana has an edge in most statistical categories -- especially on the defense side. Montana is a very good rebounding team, outrebounding everyone they’ve played except the Zags. It's especially notable that Montana got one more rebound than Washington State in that loss. CS Fullerton is going to get few second chance shots, and at the other end Montana is going to make a living on put-backs.
CS Fullerton does have a better team shooting percentage from 3-point range than Montana (41.4% to 38%), but I’m not too bothered by that, for two reasons: Montana does a pretty good job defending against the 3-point shot (holding opponents to 31%), and, on offense, Montana does not really rely on the 3 pointer (however, the two Montana guards who should be shooting 3's do shoot over 40% from beyond the arc).
I'm not a big trend guy, but I think there is one that is worth mentioning: CS Fullerton is 1-14 ATS over the last three years against teams with winning records. They will be 1-15 after this one.
I don’t see the Titans staying with the Grizzlies. Montana -8.
(By the way, I actually got this bet at -7.5. When I wrote this, I thought it was going to be -8. You may want to bet it early. It is getting bet about 83% on Montana. This line might move.)
