is 10.5 enough to take?

onlooker · 03-18-07, 11:53 PM

Hard to say. Florida has to come out in one of these tourney games with their heads on straight. They started off sluggish in both games thus far. Something tells me they turn up the heat from here on out.

Im yet to look at the game. So not sure on a side.

Jay Edgar · 03-18-07, 11:56 PM

I say

No 2-peat. Might as well keep firing at them.

bigboydan · 03-19-07, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

I say

No 2-peat. Might as well keep firing at them.

That was my first thoughts as well Jay. However, how many points do you think we might get come game time?

BuddyBear · 03-19-07, 12:03 AM

20 pts is not enough to take Butler......FLA should roll easy in this game and win by 17-19 pts. Butler does not have a player taller than 6'7 and their gaurds are not as quick or athletic as FLA. FLA is on a mission.

Wassymac · 03-19-07, 12:05 AM

I don't know if its enough BBD. Purdue played one of its best games of the year (outside of terrible free throw shooting) and responded to just about every big shot Florida hit in the 2nd half but d*mn that team is good. I can't imagine a much better defensive effort against the Gators and they still shot 70% or something ridiculous in the 2nd half.

I love the effort Butler puts out there every night and their offensive execution in the half court is phenomenal but I believe its going to take a very hot night from beyond the arc for the Bulldogs to keep it close. A week of preparation will help though and I'm sure Lickliter will bring a great gameplan but they've obviously got quite a challenge in front of them.

It'd be tough to lay points like that to Butler though which is a team that gives up zero transition opportunities and will slow the game down to a crawl.

Jay Edgar · 03-19-07, 12:07 AM

Small sample size, but sounds as if the number's going up.

I'd be curious how double-digit dogs have done in the Sweet 16 over the last 15 years. Surely it's almost always against a #1 seed.

Razz · 03-19-07, 12:18 AM

If I'm going to take Purdue +11.5 against them, I'm going to take Butler +11.5 against them. That's just me.

Wassymac · 03-19-07, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by Razz

If I'm going to take Purdue +11.5 against them, I'm going to take Butler +11.5 against them. That's just me.

I agree with that its just that Florida couldn't have faced a better Purdue team today and still managed to push it close to the number at the end.

Its a big plus though for Butler that Graves seems to have found his shooting touch once again.

babaoriley · 03-19-07, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

20 pts is not enough to take Butler......FLA should roll easy in this game and win by 17-19 pts. Butler does not have a player taller than 6'7 and their gaurds are not as quick or athletic as FLA. FLA is on a mission.

Huge point made here... On one hand, I don't see how Butler matches up with Florida. Butler's leading rebounder is a 6'1", 175 lb. Guard (AVG 6.0 RPG). They start two guards that are both 6'1" and pair them with a few 6'6"-6'7" Forwards. How in the hell do they manage to guard an athletic crew of Horford (6'10" and long), Brewer (6'9") and Noah (6'11")? It's not like any of these guys are big lumbering guys. They're all athletic, versatile big men. They've got them in size, talent, level of competition, blah blah blah... So, yes I think Butler loses by more than 12. I just see no way they manage to hang in this game with Florida. But, I do see a lackadaisical Florida team that will not repeat its championship. It's like they've regressed at times. I don;t see them winning it all, and I think Maryland would have given them a really tough time. Not that Maryland has a lot of size, but their 2 big men play bigger and their guards are fairly big... i think Maryland (if they would have won) would make more sense as a +8-9 team, whereas I see Butler as a 12-14 point dog. Plus, I ALWAYS take the 10.5 faves. Always. It's one of my few rules in gambling, and I don;t know what my "hit %" is on those plays, but I know it's high enough that I actively search out 10.5 point plays (esp. when that is the opening line) and though it misses occasionally, it hits much more often. I think the allure in taking Butler is the David vs. Goliath thing. I just don't think that Butler can hang within 10 of this florida team, especially if Florida comes out fired up.

Illusion · 03-19-07, 02:02 AM

Butler is way too undersized. Florida should roll by atleast 20.

The HG · 03-19-07, 02:24 AM

It's amazing how Butler is a team that just gets things done. They've beaten a slew of quality teams this year, and in fact, the only time they've been up against a quality team and lost was a 4-point loss to Southern Illinois.

So despite their lack of height, athleticism, etc etc. they make it happen.

I'm not touching this game, taking either side would scare me.

EBone · 03-19-07, 12:45 PM

If someone knows where to find this, I suggest they do. This is a little off the subject but the last time a regional was in the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis I seem to recall 3 very low scoring games because teams could not make any outside shots because of the depth behind the baskets. I don't know if they are making arrangements to try to counteract that this time but, nonetheless, I think it would be interesting to find out when the last time a regional was in St. Louis and what those scores were. More to the subject, if Butler can't make outside shots, it could be a real long night.

E

Jay Edgar · 03-19-07, 01:11 PM

Last 11 games there

median 131
average 141.6

2005 Final Four
NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
North Carolina 87, Michigan State 71
Illinois 72, Louisville 57
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
North Carolina 75, Illinois 70

2004 First Round
St. Louis
No. 1 Kentucky 96, No. 16 Florida A&M 76
No. 9 UAB 102, No. 8 Washington 100
No. 12 Pacific 66, No. 5 Providence 58
No. 4 Kansas 78, No. 13 Ill-Chicago 53
No. 6 Boston College 58, No. 11 Utah 51
No. 3 Georgia Tech 65, No. 14 N. Iowa 60
No. 10 Nevada 72, No. 7 Michigan St. 66
No. 2 Gonzaga 76, No. 15 Valparaiso 49

EBone · 03-19-07, 01:54 PM

Thank you for the info, Jay. I guess I was thinking back to around 1998. I seemed to have recalled a Roy Williams coached Kansas team that struggled mightily from the floor.

Obviously, this data is more recent so I yield to your facts. That's what I get for thinking aloud. I assume that all of these games listed were played in the football dome instead of the Scot Trade Center.

E

Jay Edgar · 03-19-07, 02:03 PM

Pretty sure that's right about '04 and '05.

In the 1998 regional, totals were 142, 126, and 156.

URI 74, Valpo 68
Stanford 67, Purdue 59
Stanford 79, URI 77

And there was a 2002 subregional, with totals of
140
151
129
152
169
149

No idea if any of the games in any of the years involved OT.

BTW this is all from 5 minutes of Googling. Nothing fancier than that. Assume it's correct, but wouldn't swear.

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 03-19-07, 02:30 PM

Being from Indiana, I personally would love to see Butler give the Gators a good game and win... However, I see Florida winning this game by 20! Purdue played them about as tough as anyone could and they still lost by 7... I looked at the 10.5 right when it came out and said Man there is no way that Butler will cover that... Sure they played solid against Maryland and definitely have a team worthy of being in the Sweet 16... Butler's lack of size will really hurt them against UF and the Gators are due for a breakout game from beginning to end... I don't see any way the Bulldogs keep this one close...