[aljack]

The Math Man has returned just in time for Conference Tournaments and March Madness.

After searching long and hard for a model that can generate as much success as I had in NFL - I believe I have found a formula that can hit at a high rate of precision and I am going to put it to the test for the remainder of Conference Tournaments and into March Madness.

The concept / model / formula is simple.

NET EFFICIENCY.

That is: Offensive efficiency (x100) (Minus) Defensive efficiency (x100) = Power Rating (vs Opponent & Spread)

-

Over the weekend I tested these numbers and was hitting at quite a high rate.

Betting ATS and ML's (-200 or higher)
I went 18-8, +7.7u, +1.85% ROI (@ 1u = 6.25%)

-

After crunching the numbers for Wednesday's games - I made a few adjustments based on secret home court advantage in some spots - in some games the local team is playing in an arena close by - or is in fact playing in their own arena for the conference tournament games - as well I made a few adjustments based on campus proximity.

The number in brackets is the margin of victory either vs opponent straight-up or against the spread.

-

So without further delay - here are the leans, likes and best bets for Wednesday March 7th









BEST BET:
UNLV -10.5 (13.6)

-

More to come as the madness continues!

[aljack]

Full list of leans, likes and best bets for today.

Only betting ML's at (-200) or higher.

-

WED MAR 7th

HAMP ml (25.1)
UNLV ml (24.1),
WYOM ml (17.3),
UAB ml (16.1),
GEOWSH ml (15.4),
BUCKN ml (15.1),
STANF ml (13.8),

UNLV -10.5 (13.6) <- BEST BET

AZST ml (13),
USCAR ml (12.9),

USCAR -3 (9.9) <- LIKE
(NOT USC, SCAR - MADE MISTAKE IN SPREAD SHEET)

UTHST ml (9.8),

GEOWSH -6.5 (8.9) <- LIKE

TEXAS ml (8.8),

NTEX +2.5 (7.7) <- LIKE (Look for secret HCA here)

MARQ ml (7.6),
OREGON ml (7.4),
APPST ml (7.2),

UAB -9 (7.1) <- LIKE

UTSA ml (6.5),

AZST -7 (6) <- LIKE

NCST ml (5.9),

BUCKN -9.5 (5.6) <- LIKE (HCA HERE)

FIU ml (5.5),
BETHCOOK ml (5.5)
STJHNS ml (5.2)

NTEX ml (5.2) <- LEAN

TROY ml (4.9)


LEANS
WSST +12 (4.6)
VTECH +2.5 (4.6)
FIU -1 (4.5)
STANF -9.5 (4.3)
UTSA -2.5 (4)
UTHST -6 (3.8)
WYOM -13.5 (3.8)
GRGA ml (3.7),
ULM ml (3.6)
NWO ml (3.4)
TEXAS -5.5 (3.3)
APPST -4 (3.2)
LASLLE ml (3),
NCST -3 (2.9)
LAMAR ml (2.4)
VTECH ml (2.1),
UMASS +5 (2)
ORGST ml (2)
FSU ml (1.7),
GRGA -2 (1.7)
MARQ -6 (1.6)
SYRCSE ml (1.4)
TXST +2 (1)
CCAR ml (1),

-

Bets I've Made On Early Games.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE -3 (-110),
APPALACHIAN STATE -4 (-110),
UNLV -10 (-110),
ARIZONA STATE -7 (-105)

[Mackballs]

Looks interesting

So you're not actually betting all these leans, correct?

Is a "like" bet for less than a "best bet" would be?

Are you going to be indicating throughout the day which games you have actually wagered on?

Thanks, going to follow

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Good stuff

[cwnotorious]

I like it Bol, will be keeping a close

[aljack]

Looks interesting

So you're not actually betting all these leans, correct?

Is a "like" bet for less than a "best bet" would be?

Are you going to be indicating throughout the day which games you have actually wagered on?

Thanks, going to follow

The four picks at the bottom are my bets. I will indicate what picks I am actually betting as the day/week/month goes on - but I am keeping track of the entire system - so all the picks (-200) or higher are going into my database record.

The picks at the bottom where I indicate “Bets I have made” will be my preferred picks - however the entire system is being tracked.

[Money23]

1-4?

[aljack]

1-4?

Yea not off to the best start - chest pounders jinx I think.

But I am confident the system will come around with the evening games.

If it doesn't - I have other proven methods that I will adopt for this thread.

I am trusting the system.

[aljack]

WASHINGTON STATE +12½ (-114),

BETHUNE-COOKMAN (-124)

Two bets I've made.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Good luck

[aljack]

Looks like ATS is the way to go with this system.

ATS Record sitting at:
13-7, +4.83u +1.51% ROI (@ 1u = 6.25%)

Since starting this system.

Bunch of pending

More bets that i've made for tonight.

MARQUETTE -5½ (-111)

NORTH TEXAS +3 (-105)

UAB -10 (-110)

SOUTH CAROLINA -2½ (-114)

TEXAS -5 (-110)

[aljack]

Conference Tournaments

OFF/DEF NET EFF = POWER RATING (ATS)

54.55%

18

15

1.38u

0.26% ROI

@ 1u = 6.25%




"MATH MAN HAS GONE BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD TO FIND A BETTER MATHEMATICAL EDGE FOR TODAY'S CARD. FIRST - I AM GOING TO FOCUS ON TOTALS - WE HAD A DISAPPOINTING DAY YESTERDAY AGAINST THE SPREAD - SO IT'S TIME TO BROADEN OUR HORIZONS AND LOOK AT GAME TOTALS FOR TODAY'S CARD. I AM SIMPLIFYING THINGS HERE AND IT MAY SEEM LIKE A SQUARE STAT, BUT AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME IS A SHARP STATISTIC THAT CARRIES A LARGE AMOUNT OF WEIGHT IN HOW THE BIG BOOKMAKERS SET THE GAME TOTAL LINES. AVGPPG AS A STAT HAS MANY OTHER ANALYTICAL STATS BUILT INTO IT LIKE PACE AND OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY - SO WITHOUT DELAY - HERE ARE MY NUMBERS FOR TODAY'S CARD - STARTING WITH TOTALS."

PPG = SCORE (TOTALS)

NCAA BASKETBALL SEASON
53.85%, 49-42, +2.59u +0.18% ROI/BET @ 1u = 6.25%





-

LOUISV/O122 (22.1) <-- BEST BET

LIKES
WVIRG/O141 (14.2)
SDST/O140 (13.4)
CLEM/O140 (13.2)
TCU/O144.5 (11.8)
COL/O142 (11.4)
CREIGHT/O147.5 (11)
STNHLL/O148.5 (10.3)
ALAB/O138.5 (9.1)
CHIST/U148 (8.3) <-- REALLY LIKE
HAWAI/O129.5 (8.1)
EMICH/O134.5 (7.5)
LEAN
CSBAKE/O133 (7.4)
LINE WATCHERS
SMU/O132 (5.7)
UCDAV/O131 (5.6)
LSU/O145.5 (5.4)
LBST/U152.5 (4.6)
UNLV/O164 (3.2)
BLLST/O145 (2.9)
TLDO/O147 (2.2)
UMKC/O139.5 (2.1)
VCU/O147 (1.6)
UCF/O128.5 (1.2)
DUQ/U145 (1.2)
UCSB/O142 (1)

-

I know what you're gonna say - alot of overs - mostly overs - you're probably saying these are square numbers and I get it - but as I have used this system before I can tell you that this many overs is a reflection of the opening line probably being set too low and I feel that the market is going to adjust a bunch of these numbers before tip off in alot of these games and we will have a better set of picks as the day goes on.

The "LINE WATCHERS" are games that - if the line moves lower or higher than the margin number in the brackets - I would be betting the other side on those picks - that is where I see the most value in this system.

IE:

TLDO/O147 (2.2)

My model is predicting a total of 149.2, if the line moves above 149.5 - I would bet the under.

DUQ/U145 (1.2)

My model is predicting a total of 143.8, if the line moves below 143.5 - I would bet the over.

-

The system's record is based on the opening line - not the closing line - which is why it doesn't have the highest success rate - but if you use the model as an indicator of how to identify the threshold of when to bet the other side - you will find there is a decent potential of success using that strategy.

-

If I have time this morning I will post my ATS picks using the system from yesterday. There is a couple more games today than there was yesterday - which is why I moved to this system because it is easier to generate than the other - however there is an edge in both systems over time. I am certain of it.

Until the early afternoon...

Math Man Out.

[aljack]

Bets I've Made.

LOUISV/VIRG O122.5 (-110),

BOSCOL/CLMSN O139.5 (-110),

PROV/CRGHTN O147.5 (-110),

TCU/KANS O144 (-110),

ALAB/TXAM O138.5 (-110),

COL/ARZ O142 (-110)

[aljack]

Bets I've Made.

LOUISV/VIRG O122.5 (-110),

BOSCOL/CLMSN O139.5 (-110),

PROV/CRGHTN O147.5 (-110),

TCU/KANS O144 (-110),

ALAB/TXAM O138.5 (-110),

COL/ARZ O142 (-110)

4-2 record on my early bets.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Congrsts

[aljack]

Successful day for the Math Man so far.

12-8, +2.94u

Final set of picks for the night. Will have another set of picks up for Friday's card.

WYOM/NEWMEX u166½ (-110),
OREG/UTH o136 (-110),
CALPOLY/UCSB O140 (-110),

[aljack]

As I was creating my model for yesterday I stumbled upon a slighty juicy finding - It seems the opening total lines are being slightly projected against the under for some reason this year for conference tournaments. There is a ton of value in betting against this protection. Whatever the bookmakers are using to set these lines is not working for them IMO.

If you bet only OVERS yesterday in college basketball you would have profited a decent amount.

OVERS WERE: 32-23, +6.12u On the consensus line.

My totals model yesterday hit: 16-11, +3.56u.

Majority of my picks were overs. Did hit on a few unders however.

I feel today may be the last day to cash on these lower than normal totals. Obviously the semis and finals games should be tighter with a slower pace - however, depending on the participants, some bubble teams may be going for style points to get into the big dance.

Totals model for today will be posted very shortly. Hope to have another successful day.

[aljack]

TOTALS MODEL YESTERDAY: 16-11, +3.56u.

SINCE MARCH 1st:

55.08%

65

53

6.15u

FRIDAY MARCH 9th

VIRG/O117 (24.3) <--- BEST BET

LIKES

SMU/O127 (18.7)
ORGN/O140 (15.6)
VLLNOVA/O151.5 (15.4) <--- REALLY LIKE
TXTCH/O141.5 (14.4)
UCF/O127.5 (13.4)

DUKE/O155 (13) <-- REALLY LIKE
KANS/O141.5 (12.5)
STL/O130 (12.5)
ARKNS/O146 (11.8)
MSST/O136.5 (11.4)



LEANS


NWMXST/O137 (11.2)
OLDDOM/O142.5 (10.9)
UTHVLLY/O140 (10.5)
SMHOUST/O131 (8.7)
NCOL/O147.5 (8.7)
NEVADA/O151.5 (8.3)
TXSTHRN/U159.5 (8.2) <-- CLOSER TO A LIKE
TXST/O139.5 (8.1)
TLDO/O142.5 (7.9)
KNTKY/O138 (7.6)


SLIGHT LEANS


XAV/O151 (7.6)
UCIRV/O137 (7.2)
ARZ/O147.5 (7.1)
NICHLST/O153 (5.8)
WICHST/O147.5 (5.6)
MRGST/O136.5 (5.6)
VCU/O147.5 (5.1)


LINE WATCHERS


ALABAMA/O151.5 (4.9)
UCDAVIS/O141 (4.9)
MEMPH/O140.5 (4.6)
MRSHLL/U156 (3.9) <-- SLIGHT LEAN AS WELL
NCAT/O148 (3.2)
TROY/O146 (3.1)
GRGMSN/U149.5 (3)
GASOUTH/O140.5 (2)
NWMX/U155 (2)
STBON/O148 (1.6)
APPST/U154 (1.5)
KNTST/U159.5 (1.5)
SUTH/O148 (1.4)

[A.M.S.]

Nice info

[aljack]

Too much going on yesterday. Couldn't get all the numbers crunched in time.


PPG = Score (Totals) System - March 2018

52.83%

84

75

1.44u

0.06% ROI

March 11th

HOU/O127.5 (25.6)

UK/O136 (15)

DVDSN/O139.5 (14.3)

PENN/O131 (13.4)

UTA/O146 (6.7)

NET EFF = POWER RATING (ATS) SYSTEM - MARCH 2018

54.55%

18

15

1.38u

0.26% ROI

March 11th

PENN -2 (3.7)

DVDSN +2 (3.5)

CINC -4.5 (3.1)

TENN -0.5 (2.2)

GSU -2 (1.7)

[aljack]

Trying out some new stuff...

NET EFF RATING:
Offensive Efficiency (x 100) (minus) Defensive Efficiency (x 100) = Rating
MOE RATING:
The Margin Of Expectation Rating is the average number in which a team is against the spread all season up until the tournament. The spread is fundamental measurement of expectation for a team.
PPG Rate:
Average Points Per Game for each team - as a straight up number, against the spread and as a game total.
PXSP Rating:
Avg Possessions Per Game (X) Average Shooting Percentage (X 2.32) = Score Prediction

---

Round Of 68 - Tuesday March 13th

Play In Game #1
Dayton, OH

NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating

PXSP Rating


PPG Rating

Math Man's Bracket Pick: LIU-Brooklyn
Radford has an above average defense but in my opinion their offense doesn't really cut it in this match-up. LIU shoots better overall and has more possessions per game and more points per possession. This line could easily be -4.5 LIU.

---

Round Of 68 - Tuesday March 13th
Play In Game #2
Dayton, OH

NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating

PXSP Rating

PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: St. Bonaventure

A solid opening match up, UCLA has a slightly above average offense and the Bonnies have an above average defense. UCLA's achilles heel is their defense and I think the Bonnies will be able to put up big numbers vs UCLA here. None of my models have UCLA covering by any significant number - because of that - and based on St. Bon's margin of expectation - I can see St. Bonaventure keeping it close to the wire and possibly pulling through with the win. Going out on a limb here and taking the Bonnies. Let's hope their defense stays glued.

---

[aljack]

NET EFF RATING
STMRYS (25.3),
USC (18.1),
WKU (15.4),
NTRDME (14.7),
UTHVLY (13.4),
ORGN (11.1),
STMRYS -14.5 (10.8)
WKU -5.5 (9.9)
FGCU +10.5 (8.6)
UTHVLY -7.5 (6.7)
STBON +3.5 (5.5)
NKU +8 (5.3)
HMPTN +20 (5.3)
MDTNST (5.1),
WAGNER +13 (4.1)
RADFORD (3.3)
LVILLE (2.7),
STBON (2),
OKST (1.9),
USC -16.5 (1.6)
LIUBRK +4.5 (1.2)

---

MOE RATING
SELA +14.5 (7.5)
EWSH +7.5 (6.5)
USC -16.5 (4.2)
LIU +4.5 (3.2)
BYLR -13 (3)
MDTNST -6 (2.9)
RIDER +11.5 (2.6)
WKU -5.5 (1.6)
NKU +8 (1.5)
STBON +3.5 (1.5)
OKST -10.5 (1)

---

PXSP RATING
HMTPN +20 (21.4)
LIUBRK +4.5 (17.9)
FGCU +10.5 (14.7)
WKU (14.1),
LIUBRK (13.4),
STMRYS (13),
MDTNST/ O137 (12.4)
STMRYS/ O139 (12.2)
RIDER +11.5 (10.9)
UTHVLY (9.8),
NCASHE +16.5 (9.3)
BAYLOR/ O138 (8.9)
WKU -5.5 (8.6)
LVILLE/ O147.5 (7.8)
MDTNST (7.6),
USC (7.2),
UTHVLY/ O147.5 (6.3)
LVILLE (5.4),
USC/ U152 (5.3)
LIUBRK/ O138.5 (5)
FGCU (4.2),
UCLA (3.4),
NKU +8 (2.6)
UTHVLY -7.5 (2.3)
HMPTN/ U151.5 (2.2)
WKU/ U160 (1.7)
SELA +14.5 (1.5)
HMPTN (1.4),
FGCU/ O159 (1)

---

PPG RATING
HAMPTON +20 (15.4)
STMRYS (14.7),
USC (11.9),
MDTNST/ O137 (10.6)
BYLR/ O138 (10.1)
UTHVLY (9.9),
WKU (9.4),
BYLR (8.9),
MDTNST (8.2),
STMRYS/ O139 (8.3)
RIDER +11.5 (8)
FGCU +10.5 (7.6)
LVILLE (7.5),
LVILLE/ O147.5 (5.4)
WKU/ U160 (5)
NTRDME (4.6),
NCASHE +16.5 (4.6),
WGNR +13 (4.1)
WKU -5.5 (3.9),
ORGN (3.5),
UTHVLY/ O147.5 (3)
OKST (2.9),
UTHVLY -7.5 (2.4)
USC/ U152 (1.7)
NTRDME/ O151.5 (1.5)
OKST/ U159 (1.1)

___

be back tomorrow.

[SAX27]

Yikes....lots of info, work is appreciated, tough to find out your actual plays. Good luck aljack!!!

[aljack]

Yikes....lots of info, work is appreciated, tough to find out your actual plays. Good luck aljack!!!

3.13.18

WAGNER +13 (4.1)

NKU +8 (5.3)

WKU -5.5 (9.9)

FGCU +10.5 (8.6)

HMPTN +20 (5.3)

STMRYS -14.5 (10.8)

USC -16.5 (1.6)

STBON +3.5 (5.5)

LIUBRK +4.5 (1.2) RIDER +11.5 (10.9) BYLR/ O138 (10.1) LVILLE/ O147.5 (5.4) MDTNST/ O137 (10.6) WKU/ U160 (5) OKST/ U159 (1.1) NTRDME/ O151.5 (1.5) UTHVLY -7.5 (2.4) UTHVLY/ O147.5 (3) STMRYS/ O139 (8.3) USC/ U152 (1.7) My actual plays. All small units. Testing out some systems right before March Madness.

[DaColts]

Aljack lots of great info but might be tough to tell if that will work well for the real madness. I only say that cause not all teams are motivated for the NIT. I'm looking forward to seeing how your Thursday and Friday play's look like and work out. Good luck!

[aljack]

Aljack lots of great info but might be tough to tell if that will work well for the real madness. I only say that cause not all teams are motivated for the NIT. I'm looking forward to seeing how your Thursday and Friday play's look like and work out. Good luck!

Just using it to fine tune my numbers. Won't be using it through out the entire NIT.

[aljack]

NCAA Championship Tournament



Math Man's Statistical Indicators:
NET EFF RATING:
Offensive Efficiency (x 100) (minus) Defensive Efficiency (x 100) = Rating

MOE RATING:
The Margin Of Expectation Rating is the average number in which a team is against the spread all season up until the tournament. The spread is fundamental measurement of expectation for a team.
PPG Rate:
Average Points Per Game for each team - as a straight up number, against the spread and as a game total.
PXSP Rating:
Avg Possessions Per Game (X) Average Shooting Percentage (X 2.32) = Score Prediction

---

Round Of 68 - Wednesday March 14th
Play In Game #3
Dayton, OH



MOE Rating


PXSP Rating

PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: Texas Southern
TXSO has an above average offense but a below average defense. NCC has an average offense and a slightly below average defense. TXSO has showed up vs the number this season and has the margin of expectation rating to show it. Both teams can score at a decent rate - both have a slightly better than 1pt/possession pace rating. I think TXSO's the better team here, with a better offense and if the game gets moving - TXSO will pull away.

---

Round Of 68 - Wednesday March 14th
Play In Game #4
Dayton, OH



NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating

PXSP Rating

PPG Rating

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Arizona St
It's as simple as this - take the team that deserves to be here. ASU has the best offense out of the 8 play-in teams, however Syracuse might have the best defense of the 8 play in teams. Both teams have not played well vs the number all season, and that shows in their sub single digit MOE ratings. The big indicator here is in the possessions per game, ASU has on average 7.5 more possessions per game than Syracuse. This is mostly because of Syracuse's defense and their ability to slow the pace down to a crawl. However, the shooting of ASU is what's going to set the two apart. ASU shoots +4.5% better overall than the Orange and scores 16pts on average more than Syracuse per game. ASU has the offensive ability to break through Syracuse' defense and put up big numbers. This -1.5 line is a gift in my opinion. Take the Sun Devils.

---

ROUND ONE
West - (1) Xavier vs (16) Texas Southern

NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating

PPG Rating

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Xavier
Xavier outmatches TXSO in every statistical facet of the game. However, TXSO has a far better margin of expectation rating than Xavier. So don't count TXSO ATS out if that spread is in the double digits. Xavier shoots far better overall than TXSO with just as many possessions per game. That is a huge indicator that this game is going to be one sided. Take Xavier.

---

East - (1) Villanova vs (16) LIU-Brooklyn



NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova
Villanova is going to eat Radford alive here.

---

East - (6) Florida vs (11) St. Bonaventure


NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: St. Bonaventure
This is a match made in heaven for the Bonnies. Florida is a top 25 team simply because of their elite defense. However, unfortunately for Florida - St. Bonaventure has defensive numbers that can shine a light to the Gators. The bonnies also wield a better than average offense, and in my opinion - an offense that is slightly better than Florida. The Bonnie's shoot better than Florida with 2 more avg possessions per game, St. Bon also edges the Gators in avg points per game and has a slightly better pace factor than Florida. It also can't be ignored that Florida has a sub par margin of expectation against the spread. The bonnies; however cover the spread by an average 2.1 points. There is big value on the Bonnies. The first underdog pick of the tournament.

---

MidWest - (6) TCU vs (11) Arizona St.


NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: Arizona St
This one may possibly have upset written all over it as well. ASU matches up very well with TCU on offense and defense. Both teams have struggled against the number this season, but both are in the positive with ASU having a 0.2 better margin of expectation than TCU. TCU shoots about 3% better than ASU and in one less possession per game. This game is going to be a shootout and I am backing the Sun Devils here. Take the Sun Devils as a live dog vs the Horned Frogs.

---

Thursday March 15th - Round One

MidWest - (10) Oklahoma vs (7) Rhode Island


NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: Rhode Island
This one is a head scratcher. Oklahoma has a world class offense, but lacks severely in defense. URI has a better than average offense and has one of the best defense games in the country. Oklahoma has had a tough time against the number, URI holds a 2.7pt margin of expectation lead over Oklahoma, both teams are in the red on average ATS. This is the decider for me - Rhode Island shoots almost the same shooting percentage as Oklahoma, but in 8 less possessions per game than them. That factor tied into the fact that Oklahoma is simply outclassed on defense here - makes me obligated to take the Rams. URI moves on.

---

South - (14) Wright St. vs (3) Tennessee
NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating


Math Man's Bracket Pick: Tennessee
A battle of two defenses here. Both teams have a better than average defense. Both teams have had decent success ATS with respective numbers of +2.1 & +2.2 for margin of expectation. TENN shoots as well if not better than Wright St - with 2 less possessions per game. TENN scores 3pts more per game on average than Wright St. I like Tennessee to move on here, but I will be betting Wright St +12.5

---

West - (13) NC-Greensboro vs (4) Gonzaga
NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating



Math Man's Bracket Pick: Gonzaga

Everyone is saying that this Gonzaga game in Boise is going to basically be a home game for the Zag. However, as a wise man once told me "Everyone is no one" - and that's exactly how I feel about this game. Spokane Washington is a 6 hour drive from Boise, Idaho - besides a few die-hard fans - no one from the University of Gonzaga is going to want to go to Boise, Idaho for their spring break. It's just not happening. Now that's not to say I don't think Gonzaga is going to win - because they are - but they are not going to run NC Greensboro out of the gym. Greensboro has a respectable defense and a slightly above average offense. They have played good against the number in general this season putting up an average against the spread number of +3.9. If Gonzaga gets pulled into Greensboro's game this is going to be a back and forth close game that will probably see UNC-GB get a lead or two - I suspect Gonzaga to pull through in the end, but the +12.5 is too big. Take Gonzaga on your bracket and take UNC-GB ATS.

---

MidWest - (16) Pennsylvania vs (1) Kansas

NET EFF Rating

MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating



Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kansas

Home court advantage in play here for Kansas, but it doesn't really mean much either way. U Penn has a better statistical defense than they are given credit for. On paper it is in fact better than Kansas' defense. Although that's about all Penn has on Kansas in this match-up. Kansas shoots 4% better than Penn at 49.8% and with less possessions. Kansas moves on - lean Penn ATS.

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MidWest - (15) Iona vs (2) Duke


NET EFF Rating


MOE Rating


PXSP Rating


PPG Rating



Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke

Short and sweet. Duke wins. They have possibly the best NET EFF rating in the tournament. They could win the whole thing. They have an elite offense and impeccable defense. They have played well ATS all season. However this line may be too high. Iona can compete and are not a slouch on the offensive end. Duke moves on - Iona covers.

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Part 2 of the Math Man's NCAA Tournament Handicap - Tomorrow.

Until then - here is the Math Man's bracket.






Math Man's NET EFF Power Rating - Round 1

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Math Man's Bonus Future Play

[Money23]

Wow Cincy huh? First one I seen picking them..can they score enough to hang with some of the big dogs?

[aljack]

Wow Cincy huh? First one I seen picking them..can they score enough to hang with some of the big dogs?

I think based on luck of the draw they have a decent road to the final dance without having to scare an impossible amount of points.

[aljack]

12-4 on Day 1 bracket picks.

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NET EFF RATING:
Offensive Efficiency (x 100) (minus) Defensive Efficiency (x 100) = Rating





MOE RATING:
The Margin Of Expectation Rating is the average number in which a team is against the spread all season up until the tournament. The spread is fundamental measurement of expectation for a team.

[aljack]

12-4 on Day 1 bracket picks.

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NET EFF RATING:
Offensive Efficiency (x 100) (minus) Defensive Efficiency (x 100) = Rating





MOE RATING:
The Margin Of Expectation Rating is the average number in which a team is against the spread all season up until the tournament. The spread is fundamental measurement of expectation for a team.

[aljack]

My PPG model had UMBC beating Virginia! Cash it.

[aljack]

Math Man’s March Madness Prediction Plays – Round 2 – Day 1

PPG Model

NET PPG Model

NET EFFICIENCY Model

MEASURE OF EXPECTATION Model

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Math Man’s Round by Round bracket.
SOUTH REGION

WEST REGION

EAST REGION

MIDWEST REGION

Math Man’s 1st RD Bracket Re-Cap:
22-10 W/L
22/32 – 68%
Championship Team: Still Alive
Final Four Teams: Still Alive



Math Man’s Future Bet’s

Cincinnati now at +1200

Added Futures

[fly fisher]

if reading these data sets correctly and getting what you mean, it seems like the most likely outcome you expect to see is the over hitting in the RI/Duke game. Is that correct?

[aljack]

if reading these data sets correctly and getting what you mean, it seems like the most likely outcome you expect to see is the over hitting in the RI/Duke game. Is that correct?

Yes.

Which happened by just a few points - but it did happen!