William & Mary +9 Tonight

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  • infamousbacardi
    SBR MVP
    • 03-16-08
    • 4556

    #1
    William & Mary +9 Tonight
    The William and Mary Tribe have the chance to win their first ever CAA tournament title tonight. However, a big road block for them stands in the way. Old Dominion. Historically, Old Dominion has crushed W&M. ODU leads the all-time series between these two schools by a margin of 62 - 15. That's a pretty heavy advantage when you look at their pasts. The spread for this one is set currently at 9 points. It's easy to see why, as these teams have met twice already this season in CAA action, with ODU taking each game by 3 and 19 points. This is an adverage of 11 points, but you also have to throw in the 2 points for it being on a neutral court. Overall, W&M played ODU tough at home, and was completely out-classed on the road. That would seem to think on a neutral court, it isn't an obvious answer as to how this game will play out. Even if the numbers do crunch up to ODU taking this game on the ML, by how much will they win?
    When you examine the records for these teams, it becomes interesting what you see. The home records shake out with William & Mary at 10-3, while ODU checks in at 15-0. Already, we see that ODU is a great home team...but, this game isn't at home. This game is being played on a neutral floor in Richmond. Both of these schools are from VA, so this shouldn't give an edge to either team necessarily. The away records for these teams stand as William & Mary at 10-6, while ODU currently sits at 8-6. Despite the great home record for ODU, they do sturggle a little bit for a good team during road play. W&M has a better road record, so the mentality of not playing in comfortable territory should favor W&M slightly int his match-up. We also have a little bit of neutral record information from these teams, as William & Mary is 2-0, while ODU 2-2 on neutral ground. I don't think that bears too much weight, but it is at least mentionable that W&M does have neutral court experience as well as ODU, so this won't be shocking to either team.
    ODU brings a 15-3 record in CAA action to the tournament, but they haven't dominated their way to this championship game. They played a good VCU team already who took them to OT, after the Monarchs trailed by as much as 12 in the second half...this should factor into the game, as both teams are likely to be tired as well. I think ODU has all but locked up a spot in the big dance already, while they won't want to leave things to chance, William and Mary needs a win to realistically make the big dance. They've done a solid job getting to this point of the CAA tournament, but for all intensive purpopes, their life is on the line tonight. They have to come to play, and they should keep this one closer than 9 points. I think a 4-8 point victory is quite likely for ODU. Good luck tonight everyone.
  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #2
    Line is fishy. I think I'm going to be on ODU -- especially if the public pounds it down.
    Comment
    • Wolf40
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-09-10
      • 954

      #3
      The more that I look into it the more I think the line is decent. I would have thought it around -7
      I like ODU here as well, hoping to get it down too.

      I've seen W&M play 3 times and I don't think they are very good. I wish this was a -4 or -5 I would have pounded ODU... LOL
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #4
        Too many people on William & Mary. Only way to bet this one is the total.
        Comment
        • mdk02
          SBR Sharp
          • 01-26-10
          • 358

          #5
          ODU is the play..
          Comment
          • infamousbacardi
            SBR MVP
            • 03-16-08
            • 4556

            #6
            GL guys
            Comment
            • BiffTFinancial
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-29-09
              • 22670

              #7
              nice write-up

              W&M is my team, and i have to say that they've always struggled against the more athletic CAA teams (ODU, VCU, Mason). Tribe gets a ton of their points from 3-pointers (almost 40%), while ODU dominates closer to the basket (#1 nationally in points derived from 2-point FGs). W&M does not have the beef or the athletes to keep ODU from scoring in the paint. While i would love nothing more than for W&M to win this and get their first ever NCAA bid, the only way that it happens is if ODU shoots very poorly from close-in and W&M either (a) hits a ton of 3s and mixes in the mid-range scoring that they normally underemphasize, or (b) is the beneficiary of a bunch of dumb ODU fouls and goes to the line far more than usual.

              of course, the question isn't W&M ML but W&M +9. i may play it, but it's not without risk. W&M is a great backdoor cover team, but if the 3s aren't falling (esp for Schneider), there's a danger they'll get blown out, and they're not a team that will claw back with FTs and lay-ups when the lead bulges, so it can be complete feast or famine. BOL whatever you decide.
              Comment
              • tcarn01
                SBR MVP
                • 10-27-09
                • 1993

                #8
                D. Schneider will light ODU up.. He was off target 2 on sat going 0-9. now he is on fire. Don't think he will let them lose in his final tourney as a senior. He will put the tribe on his back and will win this one SU.....BOL to all
                Comment
                • Boxer300
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 02-17-10
                  • 498

                  #9
                  William & Mary are not very good unless they are hitting all there threes. ODU should win easy
                  Comment
                  • dbldown
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-09-08
                    • 1055

                    #10
                    I am surprised they are getting +9 on a neutral court. Seems like a good play.
                    Comment
                    • Wilforth
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-10-08
                      • 16309

                      #11
                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                      Too many people on William & Mary. Only way to bet this one is the total.
                      But the squares also have their day.
                      Comment
                      • southpaw74
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-21-09
                        • 7104

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Wilforth
                        But the squares also have their day.
                        Agreed...everyone was on them last night and they cashed easy peasy!!
                        Comment
                        • InTheRed
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-25-09
                          • 455

                          #13
                          Originally posted by southpaw74
                          Agreed...everyone was on them last night and they cashed easy peasy!!
                          That was because they played NU. As a grad of that school, it was an easy game to pick as NU has never, EVER, EVER!, played in a big game and won. That and NU struggled against Hofstra the night before. The only way I would have taken them was if they were the dog.


                          As for tonight, ODU as a single digit favorite is very low. They have been the best in the conference all season long. They dominated on Saturday, then survived against VCU yesterday. They'll close out strong.

                          W&M is a scary team as mentioned earlier. They rely on the 3. It hurt them in the second half last night. They were cruising in the first but only scored 16 or so pts in the 2nd half. They will need 2 good halves tonight to win, or cover tonight.



                          As for the O/u being at 117. It seems low to me initially. ODU can and will easily get their share of the pts. But will they score enough to compensate? Can W&M score enough? Those are the questions. Unfortunately, with W&M being a 3 team, its hit or miss. I'll let you know 4 minutes into the game ;-)


                          My pick/prediction

                          ODU - 68
                          W&M - 52

                          ODU and the over.
                          Comment
                          • infamousbacardi
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-16-08
                            • 4556

                            #14
                            Any team that can get hot from 3 and turn a game around has a chance to spur the big surprise, I'll settle for keeping this one close with their lives on the line and season on the brink
                            Comment
                            • hanco21
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-19-06
                              • 3414

                              #15
                              ODU seems like the play
                              Comment
                              • stealthyburrito
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-12-09
                                • 21562

                                #16
                                if w&m aint hittin 3s, this is gonna be blowout city. does anyone know how well ODU defends the arc?
                                Comment
                                • BillyCostigan
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-18-09
                                  • 712

                                  #17
                                  I might go small on William & Mary moneyline. You never know what can happen in these conference tournament games. Probably play very, very small on the ML, and a small bet on the points too.
                                  Comment
                                  • itchypickle
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-05-09
                                    • 21452

                                    #18
                                    Did anyone else see the last :45 seconds of the WM and Northeastern game? Northeastern missed an absurd amount of tips around the goal in that last minute...only way WM got past them. I see Old Dominions by 10+.
                                    Comment
                                    • MartinBlank
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 07-20-08
                                      • 8382

                                      #19
                                      I like the Tribe as well. GL.
                                      Comment
                                      • JDUB07
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-09-08
                                        • 1721

                                        #20
                                        It's a lot of points for a Championship game where I think you'll get the best of both teams. But it is a tricky line like others have said. I'm leaning W&M right now.
                                        Comment
                                        • BiffTFinancial
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-29-09
                                          • 22670

                                          #21
                                          stealthy burrito, ODU defends the 3 very well percentage-wise (30.1% opp 3PT%), middle of the road volume-wise. that's not surprising, given that they're generally favored and leading, and they are very physical so opponents settle for 3s. W&M 15-55 on 3s in their two meetings this season (5-25 at ODU, 10-30 at W&M). W&M's average game is 9-25, so in neither game against ODU did they outperform their average or shoot their normal percentage.

                                          Richmond Coliseum, where this game is being played, is not a good shooting gym. here's hoping that Schneider got all of his misses out of his system last night. they're going to need about 12-30 from long range tonight to pull an upset. anything less than 9 3s and they'll have a hard time covering.
                                          Comment
                                          • Jive
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-10-10
                                            • 1405

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stealthyburrito
                                            if w&m aint hittin 3s, this is gonna be blowout city. does anyone know how well ODU defends the arc?
                                            ODU is near the top of the nation in 3-point defense (I believe they led the nation in that category for much of the year). They are still in the top 20 with opponents barely hitting 30% for the year.

                                            Now, I was at both ODU/W&M games this year, and I will point out that both times W&M had plenty of good looks, particularly in the first game. I suspect W&M will get their share off nice shots tonight, but I'm not sure if they will make enough to stay close. I did grab W&M at +9 just because these two teams usually play close games. This year W&M had a shot at the buzzer rim out that would have forced OT the first game, but ODU creamed the snot out of the Tribe in the 2nd matchup.
                                            Comment
                                            • stitchez
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 03-08-10
                                              • 147

                                              #23
                                              First off, Hey guys. im new to these forums but am doing quite well in the books this NBA/NCAA season.
                                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                              Too many people on William & Mary. Only way to bet this one is the total.
                                              Exactly, with a +9 and going back to the books of how the teams played agaisnt each other in the past 4 years the only real time it was that high and beat more then a few points was in 2007 and the lines were +(-12) it doesnt look good for betting winner. but going low on W&M +9 $5 wont hurt
                                              But for total i would have to go with +117. The teams are averaging between 50's to 60's

                                              GL all

                                              Anyone going -117 or -9?? whats your reasons?
                                              Comment
                                              • DennisT
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-11-09
                                                • 2025

                                                #24
                                                Took ODU - 9 1/2. Feel comfortable.
                                                Comment
                                                • suckerforparlays
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 02-15-10
                                                  • 4536

                                                  #25
                                                  W@M +10.5 parlayed with UNDER 119. Bought points in both those. Riding big on W@M covering the 10.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jrod124
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 10-31-09
                                                    • 5622

                                                    #26
                                                    don't like it. If WM is hitting 3s ok, but remember 5-25 in a 19 point defeat at ODU. Like that 119, don't see u losing both. Which is nice
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suckerforparlays
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 02-15-10
                                                      • 4536

                                                      #27
                                                      yea but W@Ms best player only made 2 3s that game it was an off night for him
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jagaf22
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-08
                                                        • 2932

                                                        #28
                                                        Take ODU the far superior team
                                                        Comment
                                                        • THA_DIESEL
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-23-10
                                                          • 3632

                                                          #29
                                                          ODU played a very tough OT game yesterday vs VCU

                                                          Comment
                                                          • THA_DIESEL
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-23-10
                                                            • 3632

                                                            #30
                                                            Looks like a OD blowout

                                                            William and mary is horrid...what a joke
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stitchez
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 03-08-10
                                                              • 147

                                                              #31
                                                              I did OD -5 at half
                                                              Comment
                                                              • THA_DIESEL
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-23-10
                                                                • 3632

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by stitchez
                                                                I did OD -5 at half
                                                                Wish I had your bet right now
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TPowell
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 02-21-08
                                                                  • 18842

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Have W&M +9
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • THA_DIESEL
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-23-10
                                                                    • 3632

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by stitchez
                                                                    I did OD -5 at half
                                                                    Great call...taking OD -3 second half LARGE
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stitchez
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 03-08-10
                                                                      • 147

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by THA_DIESEL
                                                                      Great call...taking OD -3 second half LARGE
                                                                      Heck makes today
                                                                      1-0-0 (6 pending)

                                                                      hehe

                                                                      I also did one 2nd half LARGE on OD but in a Parlay with FairField
                                                                      Comment
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